.1, .1, .2, .3, .3, .1, .1, .1, .4 1 2 & 3 4 , ( 20-20-20 2020). ( MARKAL bottom-up , ENPEP ) 2 , , , , . . , . 1. , , . - , 2020, : ) 20% 1990 2009/29/ ) 20% 2009/28/ ) 20% .

, 4% 2005, 18% . 20% 40 % , 20 % 10 % . 1

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-

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-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

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2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2023

2024

2025

2026

2027

2028

2029

2030

1. .

World Energy Outlook, 2009 Edition (IEA) 2009[5] 1.

1. . 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

($2008/t) 120,59 105,82 91,05 104,16 107,12 109,40 ($2008/GJ) 9,78 9,84 9,91 11,47 12,41 13,29 ($2008/bbl) 97,19 91,94 86,68 100,00 107,50 115,00

European Renewable Energy Council

(EREC)[4], . .

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:

( MARKAL bottom-up ENPEP top-down).

2015.

aU,

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, . 2009/28/ , 2009/29/ , 2006/32/ 2002/91/ 2004/8/ . , o 2009/29/ 2013 , . 20 /tn CO2 2013. 2006/32/ 1 9% 2016. 2016.

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. , Compliance1-1

[6], Compliance2-1 2012[7]. (BaU-O1) , . , 1 2, 1-4 - 2020 1-4 2020-2025. 3-4 2025.

(2, ENPEP) . , 1 2, 1-4 1-4 3 2020 2030, . .

4. 4.1 1

1 , 2020 35 Mtoe 1-BaU, () 1-Compliance 1 32 Mtoe 1-Compliance 2 34 Mtoe ( 2). 32 Mtoe 2010. 1-Compliance 2, . 1-BaU 1-Compliance 1 3 Mtoe (1 ) 1-Compliance 1. , 7 % 2010 16% 2020.

05000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

ktoe

O1- BaU O1-Compliance1 O1-Compliance2

2. 3 1.

6.25 GW , 33 % 40 % .

2020 22.9 GW 1-Compliance 1 1-Compliance 2 26.5 GW 27.4 GW . 1-Compliance 1, : 8.3 GW , 4.5 GW 250 MW , 1.4 GW , 120 MW , 250 MW 5 % . 1-Compliance 2, : 8.8 GW , 4.5 GW 250 MW , 2 GW , 120 MW , 250 MW 5 % . 29 TWh 2010 16 TWh 2020 1-Compliance 1 13 TWh 2010 22 TWh 2020. 1-Compliance 2 29 TWh 2010 17.3 TWh 2020 1-Compliance 1 13 TWh 2010 23 TWh 2020. 40 % .

2010-2020 7.5 . BaU-O1, 13 . Compliance1-O1, 15 . Compliance2-O1

01000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

10000

O1- BaU O1-Compliance1 O1-Compliance2

GW

. / / /

3. 1 2020.

0

5000

10000

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20000

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30000

O1- BaU O1-Compliance1 O1-Compliance2

GW

h

. / / /

4. 1 2020.

, 33 % 40 % . 14.5 %, 5.8 % 15.5 % 2020. 40 % , 20 % 10 % . 21.5 Mtoe 2010 24.2 Mtoe 2020. 1-Compliance1 21.5 Mtoe 2010 22.9 Mtoe 2020 1-Compliance2 21.5 Mtoe 2010 24.6 Mtoe 2020.

Compliance1 1 .

2. 3 . 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 BaU-1 (ktoe) 22396 23155 25220 27094 28471 28522

(%) 8,4% 12,0% 14,2% 14,6% 15,4% 16.6% Compliance1-O1 (ktoe) 22396 22224 24013 25262 26352 27533

(%) 9,4% 15,5% 20,5% 23,7% 25,3% 19.4% Compliance2-O1 (ktoe) 22369 22492 25720 28554 32160 27540

(%) 9,6% 15,8% 20,7% 23,2% 23,3% 19.7%

2020 1990 30% , 5% Compliance 1 14% Compliance 2. 4% ( ) . 4.2 2

2 , 2020 33,5 Mtoe 31,5-31,7 Mtoe , 31,1 Mtoe 2005 ( 5). , 2 toe 2020 . , , ( 1,4 Mtoe 2005 4,5 toe to 2020) .

22000

24000

26000

28000

30000

32000

34000

36000

38000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

BaU-O2 Compliance1-O2 Compliance2-O2

ktoe

5. 3 2.

( ) 29,7% 2020, (40%). 2 ( 6). , Compliance1-2 8400 MW , 970 MW PV, 250 MW , 108 W , 4440 MW, . Compliance1-2 PV ( 2.800 MW 2020), (100 MW 2020) (8 MW 2020). 2 42-43%. , (32% 28% ).

, . 2010-2020 11,1 . ( 8 . ) BaU-O2, 16,2 . ( 13 . ) Compliance1-O2, 19,7 . ( 16,6 . ) Compliance2-O2

01000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

BaU-2 Compliance1-2 Compliance2-2

PV

MW

6. 2020.

, 23,4 Mtoe 2020 ( 21,3 Mtoe 2005). 22,6 Mtoe 2020. 61 TWh 58 TWh .

( 2009/28/) 15,2% BaU-O2, 18,7% Compliance1-O2 19,0% Compliance2-O2 ( 2). 18% , 20% , (, , .). .

3. 3 . 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 BaU-O2 (ktoe) 22865 22868 23599 25452 27101 28522

(%) 6.6% 9.8% 12.1% 15.2% 15.9% 16.6% Compliance1-O2 (ktoe) 22865 22867 23397 24611 26165 27533

(%) 6.6% 9.8% 13.1% 18.7% 19.1% 19.4% Compliance2-O2 (ktoe) 22865 22868 23395 24614 26168 27540

(%) 6.6% 9.7% 13.2% 19.0% 19.4% 19.7%

3 2 6. 2020 1990 26% , 16% . 2020 2005 1% 4% .

60000

70000

80000

90000

100000

110000

120000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

BaU-2 Compliance1-2 Compliance2-2

kt CO2eq

7. 3

2.

5. 2020 , .

. . . , -, . . : ) ) , , , , . , . 20%. 6. [1] 1 , , facets Ltd, 2008 [2] , 2008 [3] , , , facets Ltd, 2009 [4] RES 2020 final report, Intelligent Energy for Europe, 2009 [5] World Energy Outlook, IEA, 2009 [6] , , 2010 [7] , , 2010