-
.1, .1, .2, .3, .3, .1, .1, .1, .4 1 2 & 3 4 , ( 20-20-20
2020). ( MARKAL bottom-up , ENPEP ) 2 , , , , . . , . 1. , , . - ,
2020, : ) 20% 1990 2009/29/ ) 20% 2009/28/ ) 20% .
, 4% 2005, 18% . 20% 40 % , 20 % 10 % . 1
-
9% 2016 2006/32/ [1], 20% - .
, 2030, . , , , . , - . , , , .
MARKAL, ENPEP,
WASP IV COST. MARKAL bottom-up, demand-driven
, , , , , , , . , .
ENPEP
. , , . .
,
WASP. WASP .
, COST
. , .
-
2. , . 1 .
-
-6.0%
-4.0%
-2.0%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
1. .
World Energy Outlook, 2009 Edition (IEA) 2009[5] 1.
1. . 2008 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
($2008/t) 120,59 105,82 91,05 104,16 107,12 109,40 ($2008/GJ)
9,78 9,84 9,91 11,47 12,41 13,29 ($2008/bbl) 97,19 91,94 86,68
100,00 107,50 115,00
European Renewable Energy Council
(EREC)[4], . .
3. - , . . , .
:
-
( MARKAL bottom-up ENPEP top-down).
2015.
aU,
, (Compliance) .
, . 2009/28/ , 2009/29/ , 2006/32/ 2002/91/ 2004/8/ . , o
2009/29/ 2013 , . 20 /tn CO2 2013. 2006/32/ 1 9% 2016. 2016.
MARKAL, WASP COST
. MARKAL . WASP . COST . COST WASP WASP MARKAL.
BALANCE/ENPEP WASP ENPEP. ENPEP , .
(1, MARKAL-WASP-COST)
. , Compliance1-1
-
[6], Compliance2-1 2012[7]. (BaU-O1) , . , 1 2, 1-4 - 2020 1-4
2020-2025. 3-4 2025.
(2, ENPEP) . , 1 2, 1-4 1-4 3 2020 2030, . .
4. 4.1 1
1 , 2020 35 Mtoe 1-BaU, () 1-Compliance 1 32 Mtoe 1-Compliance 2
34 Mtoe ( 2). 32 Mtoe 2010. 1-Compliance 2, . 1-BaU 1-Compliance 1
3 Mtoe (1 ) 1-Compliance 1. , 7 % 2010 16% 2020.
-
05000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
35000
40000
45000
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
ktoe
O1- BaU O1-Compliance1 O1-Compliance2
2. 3 1.
6.25 GW , 33 % 40 % .
2020 22.9 GW 1-Compliance 1 1-Compliance 2 26.5 GW 27.4 GW .
1-Compliance 1, : 8.3 GW , 4.5 GW 250 MW , 1.4 GW , 120 MW , 250 MW
5 % . 1-Compliance 2, : 8.8 GW , 4.5 GW 250 MW , 2 GW , 120 MW ,
250 MW 5 % . 29 TWh 2010 16 TWh 2020 1-Compliance 1 13 TWh 2010 22
TWh 2020. 1-Compliance 2 29 TWh 2010 17.3 TWh 2020 1-Compliance 1
13 TWh 2010 23 TWh 2020. 40 % .
2010-2020 7.5 . BaU-O1, 13 . Compliance1-O1, 15 .
Compliance2-O1
-
01000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
O1- BaU O1-Compliance1 O1-Compliance2
GW
. / / /
3. 1 2020.
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
30000
O1- BaU O1-Compliance1 O1-Compliance2
GW
h
. / / /
4. 1 2020.
, 33 % 40 % . 14.5 %, 5.8 % 15.5 % 2020. 40 % , 20 % 10 % . 21.5
Mtoe 2010 24.2 Mtoe 2020. 1-Compliance1 21.5 Mtoe 2010 22.9 Mtoe
2020 1-Compliance2 21.5 Mtoe 2010 24.6 Mtoe 2020.
-
Compliance1 1 .
2. 3 . 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 BaU-1 (ktoe) 22396 23155
25220 27094 28471 28522
(%) 8,4% 12,0% 14,2% 14,6% 15,4% 16.6% Compliance1-O1 (ktoe)
22396 22224 24013 25262 26352 27533
(%) 9,4% 15,5% 20,5% 23,7% 25,3% 19.4% Compliance2-O1 (ktoe)
22369 22492 25720 28554 32160 27540
(%) 9,6% 15,8% 20,7% 23,2% 23,3% 19.7%
2020 1990 30% , 5% Compliance 1 14% Compliance 2. 4% ( ) . 4.2
2
2 , 2020 33,5 Mtoe 31,5-31,7 Mtoe , 31,1 Mtoe 2005 ( 5). , 2 toe
2020 . , , ( 1,4 Mtoe 2005 4,5 toe to 2020) .
-
22000
24000
26000
28000
30000
32000
34000
36000
38000
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
BaU-O2 Compliance1-O2 Compliance2-O2
ktoe
5. 3 2.
( ) 29,7% 2020, (40%). 2 ( 6). , Compliance1-2 8400 MW , 970 MW
PV, 250 MW , 108 W , 4440 MW, . Compliance1-2 PV ( 2.800 MW 2020),
(100 MW 2020) (8 MW 2020). 2 42-43%. , (32% 28% ).
, . 2010-2020 11,1 . ( 8 . ) BaU-O2, 16,2 . ( 13 . )
Compliance1-O2, 19,7 . ( 16,6 . ) Compliance2-O2
-
01000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
BaU-2 Compliance1-2 Compliance2-2
PV
MW
6. 2020.
, 23,4 Mtoe 2020 ( 21,3 Mtoe 2005). 22,6 Mtoe 2020. 61 TWh 58
TWh .
( 2009/28/) 15,2% BaU-O2, 18,7% Compliance1-O2 19,0%
Compliance2-O2 ( 2). 18% , 20% , (, , .). .
-
3. 3 . 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 BaU-O2 (ktoe) 22865 22868
23599 25452 27101 28522
(%) 6.6% 9.8% 12.1% 15.2% 15.9% 16.6% Compliance1-O2 (ktoe)
22865 22867 23397 24611 26165 27533
(%) 6.6% 9.8% 13.1% 18.7% 19.1% 19.4% Compliance2-O2 (ktoe)
22865 22868 23395 24614 26168 27540
(%) 6.6% 9.7% 13.2% 19.0% 19.4% 19.7%
3 2 6. 2020 1990 26% , 16% . 2020 2005 1% 4% .
60000
70000
80000
90000
100000
110000
120000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
BaU-2 Compliance1-2 Compliance2-2
kt CO2eq
7. 3
2.
5. 2020 , .
-
. . . , -, . . : ) ) , , , , . , . 20%. 6. [1] 1 , , facets Ltd,
2008 [2] , 2008 [3] , , , facets Ltd, 2009 [4] RES 2020 final
report, Intelligent Energy for Europe, 2009 [5] World Energy
Outlook, IEA, 2009 [6] , , 2010 [7] , , 2010
