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Citywide average utilizations for ES, MS and HS *IS/PS Schools are counted as Elementary Schools, and Secondary Schools are counted as Middle Schools Source: DOE Blue Book
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Parent Action Conference 2015Leonie Haimson, Class Size MattersNovember 7, 2015
CRISIS IN SCHOOL OVERCROWDING :WHAT SHOULD BE DONE?
INCLUDING CITYWIDE CLASS SIZE AND OVERCROWDING DATA
School Utilization Rates at critical levels• Citywide, schools have become more overcrowded over last six years.
• According to latest Blue Book (2014-2015), about 557,000 students citywide are in over-utilized buildings (above 100%) – more than half of all students.
• Elementary schools average at 103.5%
• Middle schools average 84%
• High schools at 95.3%
Data source: Blue Book target utilization rates 2014-2015
Citywide average utilizations for ES, MS and HS 2014-2015
*IS/PS Schools are counted as Elementary Schools, and Secondary Schools are counted as Middle SchoolsSource: 2014-2015 DOE Blue Book
DOE capital plan vs. needs for seats• 2015-2019 capital plan has (at most) 36,723 seats for K12.
• 32,629 new K12 seats, with 806 of these design only.
• 4,900 seats for class size reduction, as yet unsited as to borough or grade level.
• Plan admits real need of 49,245 seats (though doesn’t explain how this figure was derived).
• DOE’s consultants project 60,000-70,000 additional students by 2021
• At least 30,000 seats are needed to alleviate current overcrowding for districts that average above 100%.
• Conclusion: real need for seats at least 100,000.
Proposed capital plan vs. needs for seats part II• These figures do not capture overcrowding at neighborhood level;
• Schools with K waiting lists,
• Expansion of pre-K, or
• Reduced class size.
• Does not capture need to replace trailers with capacity of about 10,000 seats.
• Does not address potential enrollment growth from Mayor’s plan to create 150,000 more market rate housing units and 200,000 affordable units
City-wide Enrollment Projections K-8 vs. New Seats in Capital Plan *Statistical Forecasting does not include
D75 students; K-8 Seats in Capital Plan are categorized as Small PS and PS/IS and includes 4,900 seats for class size reduction.
Statist
ical F
orecasti
ng 2011
-2021
Grier P
artne
rship 20
11-2
021
Housing S
tarts, E
stimated G
rowth 201
2-2021
Capita
l Plan
, New
Sea
ts 201
5-20
190
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
40,58951,954
38,244 34,382 Source for Housing Starts: NYSCA Projected New Housing Starts 2012-2021, http://www.nycsca.org/Community/CapitalPlanManagementReportsData/Housing/2012-21HousingWebChart.pdf; Projected public school ratio, https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Education/Projected-Public-School-Ratio/n7ta-pz8k
City-wide Enrollment Projections HS vs. New Seats in Capital Plan
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000 19,461 18,387
13,483
3,147
*Statistical Forecasting does not include D75 students; HS Seats in Capital Plan are categorized as IS/HS and does not include seats for class size reduction
Source for Housing Starts: NYSCA Projected New Housing Starts 2012-2021, http://www.nycsca.org/Community/CapitalPlanManagementReportsData/Housing/2012-21HousingWebChart.pdf; Projected public school ratio, https://data.cityofnewyork.us/Education/Projected-Public-School-Ratio/n7ta-pz8k
Class sizes have steadily increased• Despite provisions in 2007 state law requiring NYC
reduce class sizes, classes in have increased steadily since then.
• Averages do NOT tell the whole story – as more than 350,000 students were in classes of 30 or more in 2014-2015.
• There were 45,442 K-3 students in classes of 30 or more in 2014-2015 – an increase of more than 29% compared to two years before.
K-3 average class sizes since 2006
Baseline 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-1519.0
20.0
21.0
22.0
23.0
24.0
25.0
26.0
2120.7 20.5 20.3 20.1 19.9 19.9 19.9 19.9
21 20.9
21.4
22.1
22.9
23.9
24.524.9 24.7
C4E TargetCitywide Actual
Data source: DOE November class size reports
4-8 average class sizes since 2006
Baseline 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-1522.0
22.5
23.0
23.5
24.0
24.5
25.0
25.5
26.0
26.5
27.0
25.6
24.824.6
23.8
23.322.9 22.9 22.9 22.9
25.6
25.125.3
25.8
26.326.6 26.7 26.8 26.7
C4E TargetCitywide Actual
Data source: DOE November class size reports
HS average class sizes since 2006*HS DOE data unreliable
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-1524.0
24.5
25.0
25.5
26.0
26.5
27.0
26.126.2
26.626.5
26.426.3
26.726.8
26
25.7
25.2
24.8
24.5 24.5 24.5 24.5
Citywide ActualC4E Target
Data source: DOE November class size reports
K-3 students in classes of 30 or more
2012-3 2013-4 2014-5
35,137
40,268
45,442
What Needs to be Done• DOE’s OWN figures show that at least 100,000 seats needed just to address
existing overcrowding & expected enrollment growth
• Current capital plan will meet less than one half of the need according to the DOE’s current data on overcrowding and enrollment projections.
• New census data shows that NYC is the fastest growing large city in the U.S.
• The Mayor’s plan for additional 160,000 market-rate housing units and 200,000 affordable units will require even more seats in schools
• We need to double the number of new seats in the capital plan – costing approximately $125 million in city spending per year, as state provides matching funds.
Also Commission to Strengthen Planning Process
• The Council should form an independent Commission to improve the planning process and efficiency of siting new schools.
• How to improve zoning/land use process to ensure that school capacity keeps up with residential development and enrollment growth.
• Environmental Impact Statements should consider enrollment projections & policy goals, such as class size reduction.
• EIS’s now include unreasonably high thresholds for mitigation, and no EIS’s needed for construction of housing “as of right.”
• CEQR Formula used to estimate the impact of a new construction on student enrollment based on 1990-2000 birth rate data, now outdated.
Other issues for Commission to consider • Enrollment projections should be released each fall as part of the capital
planning process, before DOE’s annual amendment to the capital plan.
• DOE inefficiency in siting new schools – though has power of eminent domain
• Examples: Sunset Park school in cap plan for ten years still not sited
• 4900 seats added to capital plan Feb. 2014 for “class size reduction” – still not decided what grade level or borough
• Impact fees: Over half of all states including all large states other than NY enable impact fees from developers to pay for infrastructure improvements like schools etc.
• 60% of large cities require these impact fees; why not NYC?
