Parliamentary Elections in Ukraine, October 28 2012

KRUGLASHOV ANDRIY

November 10, 2012. IAPC, New York, New York

PlanElectoral SYSTEMCONTEXT: Kharkiv treaties (or treachery?) Vae victis! Yulia and Yura go to jail. “Enterpreneural Maidan*” “Language Maidan”CONTENTS: Electoral campaign: key messages and channels of

delivery Winners (Party of Regions, Fatherland, Freedom, UDAR,

Communist party of Ukraine, 47 independents) Losers (“Ukraine-Forward”, “moneybags”, Ex-President) Challengers (Montyan) Hero (Grandma and Cat) FRAUD and Gerrymandering OUTCOMESCivil society and electionsKey trends

Ukrainian Electoral System: mixed (50-50)

225 elected in single member districts (140.000-180.000 voters in average)

225 in single proportional district

Vote for a Political PartyVote for partisan or independent candidate

http://eastbook.eu/en/2012/10/uncategorized-en/2012-elections-in-ukraine-lets-focus-on-opinion-polls/

Map was created by Serhij Vasylchenko

CONTEXT Kharkiv treaties (or treachery?)

Russian fleet in Crimea till

2042! Ukraine bought sales on gas,

but still pays more than market

price for gas

Moment of glory - Moment of shameSigning Kharkiv Treaties

D. Medvedev and V. Yanukovich April 21, 2010

CONTEXTVae victis! Yulia and Yura go to jail

Ukraine’s former Prime Minister

Yulia Tymoshenko (AP Photo/Ukrafoto, File)

Ukraine's former Minister of Internal

Affairs Yuri Lutsenko(photo: REUTERS/Gleb Garanich)

CONTEXTEnterpreneural “Maidan”

Character:

All-Ukrainian action

(no political or ethnic split)

Cause:

Against “taxation terror”

Main advocates:

small businessmen

Outcomes: - Minor step-backs in

taxation- Major participants in jail Revolution YET TO BE!

CONTEXTLanguage Law “Language Maidan”July, 3, 2012 Parliament passed Law that made Russian

language official in 10 administrative units of Ukraine. So-called bilingual approach in fact was about making Ukrainian language useless and redundant.

People protested. Few starved for more than 12 days as an act of protest.Giving up on language was perceived by protesters as giving up sovereignty

Key players who won, political positioning and results

All-Ukrainian Union "Fatherland" ("Batkivshchyna”)

(all over the map: center-left, center-right, populist)

Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for

ReformsVitaliy Klitchko’s

party(Center-right,

liberal)

All-Ukrainian union “FREEDOM”

(Social-nationalist,

conservative)

Communist Party of Ukraine (Communist, retrospective

conservatism)

Ruling party – Party of Regions, (Federalism,

“liberalism for one family”)

25.54%30%

13.96 %

10. 44% 13.18 %Turnout = 57.98% out of 36 213 010 registered voters

Party of Regions: Party that builds

We overcame destruction - Stability is reached!

Party of Regions: from stability to well-being

Ways towards well-being: social bribery

Goods were delivered by the charitable fund of one of the candidates, Prime-Minister’s son door to door

Charity foundations proliferated

Some candidates spent up to $100 per voter on direct social bribery

How they made it Front Zmin (Front of Changes) and

Batkivschina (Fatherland) united to create common partisan list

FOR FATHERLAND. We united for Ukraine

Tymoshenko took part in campaign as a symbol

Key message for the last weeks of campaign

WE WILL STOP THEM!

Tactics: Black vs White polarization

Battle of EVIL vs GOODMykola Katerynchuk – candidate of United Opposition “Fatherland”

Runs for Parliament to protect people Got < 61%. Opponent – Petro Yurchyshyn bulldozed the road he previously built to

please people

Competitive positioning of Fatherland:

Don’t trust! (Vitaliy Klitchko) Don’t be afraid! (Yanukovich) Don’t beg! (Independent candidates)

MAKE YOUR CHOICE

Vitaliy Klitchko hits hard Ukrainian Democratic Alliance for Reforms

(V. Klitchko’s party “UDAR” )

FORCE OF DECENT PEOPLE

Numerous candidates, backed up by Vitaliy’s reputation were drivers of campaign message

Force of decent people From success of the man to success of the country

Non-intrusive image positioning of V. Klitchko

Politics can be plain/frank. Vitaliy Klitchko

One of the key messages – resonating in the times of Ukraine’s reputational pitfall

UDAR will prove the world that Ukraine can be trusted!

New channels of delivery

UDAR’s Message to entrepreneurs

Economy of equal opportunities: we will cut the number of taxes!New enterprise will get 3 years tax-off The time of UDAR has come!

Results 13.96% of votes 40 seats in parliament Klitchko is now perceived as a candidate for

Presidency

Yet, from the point of view of missed opportunities… X Klitchko’s team can’t be suspected in the effort to

squeeze the most out of the opportunity.X Klitchko lost opportunity to establish clear base,

especially on Eastern UkraineX Overwhelming majority of candidates who ran on

single-districts lost

Winner: Oleg Liashko, leader of Radical Party1. Free Yulia, Gang – in prison! 2. Gang – get out! 3. Stand up, Ukraine! 4. We’ll protect people from mafia.

Communist Party of Ukraine: empty left wing and good ads bring 13.18% of voters on their side

Message: Country back to people!Key program statements: free education! corrupt politicians – to jail!

Tax on luxury, tax rich! Nationalization of strategic enterprises

In fact, Communists always vote with their “class enemies” – Party of Regions

Their leader – Symonenko is in head of Party for 20 years. Corrupt. Hypocritical. But who cares?

Winners: VO SVOBODA

“The hand won’t shake to change everything”. Oleg Tyagnybok

What helped marginal party with fascist rhetoric to get 10,5 % of votes? Russian was institutionally made the regional

official language in 10 out of 27 Ukrainian oblasts*

Inability of moderates to stood up and fight back against criminal methods of governing

Strategic voting:- to help “Svoboda” overcome 5% threshold - to have the party capable of literally fighting

in parliament

* Name of administrative units

Why SVOBODA?

“Batkivshina” and “UDAR”

Will make it to the Parliament anyway.

That is why Ukrainians must vote for “Svoboda” to bring patriots in power

Message from former political prisoner, who spent 28 years in GULAG and ran for Presidency in 1991 - Levko Lukyanenko

Looser: Natalya Korolevska

Second Yulia?She was trying… But she is not.

Fail story: going all over the map

Natalya Korolevskaya: SHE WILL PROTECT EVERYONE!(for sale starting from February, 3)

Promoting candidate via advertising front page of a magazine can turn to be bad idea

Established party: “Ukraine Forward”Join the team of new leaders!

Got forward in her team

Soccer legend - Andriy Shevchenko joins Korolevska Party “Ukraine - Forward!”. Some claimed that he “played badly” with his head

She could not get enough leadership and invited professional actor to be in a team

Travesty based on popular images from Russian version of Pinocchio, where the former (Andriy Shevchenko, on the right) gets tricked by Cat Bazilop (Ostap Stupka – actor, on the left, and Fox-Alice (Natalia Korolevskaya, in the middle) PS: Andriy Shevchenko donated $ 1.250.000 for campaign.

As a result: Constant battles with sociologist that did not

show the “right level of support” About $ 90 millions on campaign 1.58% of votes Enormous level of disapproval for annoying

ad. campaign

LOSER? Depends on goals! Ex President managed to “steal” 1% from opposition

Victor Yuschenko – the only one beyond Kremlin control #14Our Ukraine

LOSERS worth to be mentioned: Creative positioning of Independent Vasyl Kovalchuk

THIS DUDE FOUGHT!

Challenger: She really fought!Message: Montyan will defend!

VOTE for MONTYAN - YOUR ADVOCATE IN PARLIAMENT

WHAT IS SPECIAL in Montyan’s campaign? <9% of votes, 9.600 votesFirst time in Ukraine local, grassroot-based fundrising gave 26.000$ 300 volunteers fulfilled for free the amount of work that would cost 200.000$

Information is provided by the manager of Montyan’s digital campaign, Mykola Malukha

But no one stands close to the hero…

Babussy Cat grand narrativederived from one mans creative

Found out that grand son voted for the “Regions”Rewrote my will and left house for the CAT

Party of Regions didn’tlike the joke

Destroyed media with ad, displayed in Dniprodzerjynsk Started trial against author,claiming that it is illegal to mention Party of Regions here

Author replied with the next version

“MADE BETTER* BY CENSORSHIP”

Rewrote my will and left house for the CAT“Making better” now became a ironic metaphore for the actions of ruling party,which promised “making live better today” in 2007

But Party of Regions were not satisfied and destroyed that ad as well

It provoked huge public campaign

HELP TO SPREAD “BABA AND CAT”

Party of Regions members?Hasta la vista!

Found out that grand son voted for the “Regions”…

Cannot calm down the cat!

Found out that dad voted for the “Regions”…

MOVED TO THE CAT’sHOUSE

Citizens movement

Found out that tomorrow is the election day… subscribed friends to be observers

Measuring average turnout on polling stations vs number of people voted for each party clearly shows that on the stations, where 75 of more % of registered voters showed up, numbers of Party of Regions supporters were raising dramatically. Usually as a results of “dead souls” voting.

Average number of voters per station / turnout

Gerrymandering example visualization (weird way to cut districts)

Other examples are provided by Serhij Vasylchenko here – http://svasylchenko.livejournal.com/6926.html

Electoral results map. Proportional basis

The grey-blue area on a left is the domain of Svoboda (Freedom) Everything else is divided between Batkivschyna and Party of Regions

PARTISAN AFFILIATION OF DEPUTEES ELECTED IN SINGLE MANDATE DISTRICTS

New parliament (balance of seats)

COMMUNISTS – 32; UDAR – 40; PARTY OF REGIONS – 185; Fatherland – 101; SVOBODA – 37; INDEPENDENTS – 43; OTHER PARTIES – 7

Civil Society Projects and Elections

Powermeter: measuring responsibility

12 виконано ----------------486 всього

13 не виконано ----------------486 всього

PROJECT OF PROMISES MONITORING

Aim — transparent and less populist politics.

Project answers next questions:What was promised?What is fulfilled and what is not?Who in Ukrainian politics complies his word the least?Which promises are bizarre and conflict previous ones?

Objects of monitoring: President, Prime-Minister, members of cabinet, parliamentary deputies , politicians and bureaucrats from head of village council to the top level.

Powermeter helps to establish freedom of speech and prevents censorship due to activation of journalist environment.

Civic Society: Putting our eyes at candidates lives

1. Absence of facts of human right violations2. Continuing political position according to the will of the voters3. Absence of involvement in corruptive activities4. Incomes transparency and relevance of life style to the income rate5. Personal participation in voting in parliament;6. Participation in parliamentary activities and in committee meetings

CANDIDATE’S GOODWILL CRITERIAS EVALUATED BY “FAIR” MOVEMENT

Civil society must control government, otherwise they will control us!

Natalia Kruglashova, civil activist, my mother

“Chesno” movement: overt and covert outcomes

Practical tools to measure integrity are now available

“Cemetery” of candidates, filtered by partisan machinery due to the failure to meet “Chesno” criteria

Integrity, honesty and accountability are no longer just “words”

no longer can voters say: “all politicians are the same ”

Deputies now know: they are watched

Ties between journalists and civic activist became stronger

Key trends exposed by 2012 Elections Ideas beat money Administrative resource is far from being

omnipotent Radicalization, readiness to protest Increasing demand for national interest Many ways to vote against Party of Regions (each party claimed to be in opposition) Civil society is waking up

Thank you very much for your attention!

I would love to answer your questions and to cooperate with you

in making politics better and democracy stronger around the globe

by leading decent candidates and parties to victorySincerely yours,

Andriy KruglashovNiKAA Consulting

1 404 451 7199

kruglashov@gmail.com

Facebook.com/kruglashovPS: For those, who helped me and Veronika Kruglashova to earn the place in history as the first Ukrainians ever at IAPC and to be the first to speak on the panel… See next page

Acknowledgements:

Denis Bohush, president of Bohush Communications, who worked for V. Yuschenko’s Campaign in 2002-2004

Mikhail Minakov, president of the foundation for Good Politics, Harvard University scholar

Ruslan Shtogrin, political consultant, field-specialist Vitaliy Sharlay, chief analyst of “Chesno” movement Mykola Malukha, manager of Montyan’s digital campaign Serhij Vasylchenko, specialist on electoral geography. All maps introduced in presentation were made by Serhij.

You can look at Ukrainian electoral maps at vasylchenko.in.ua Ekaterina Egorova, President of Niccolo M for inspiring to speak out Veronika Kruglashova, my wife and partner for supporting and cheering Last, but not the least, Igor Mintusov, for being an example for many years