Part 2: Adaptation Lessons from Past Experience · 2016. 3. 29. · Part 2: Adaptation Lessons from Past Experience alternative strategy for the basin of irrigated agro-forestry would

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Adaptation is successful if it reduces the vulnera-bility of poor countries and poor people to existingclimate variability, while also building in thepotential to anticipate and react to further changesin climate in the future. The evidence from pastexperience suggests that this is best achievedthrough mainstreaming and integrating climateresponses into development and poverty eradica-tion processes, rather than by identifying and treat-ing them separately.

In this document, mainstreaming is used to describethe consideration of climate issues in decisionmaking processes such as planning and budgeting.Integration is used when specific adaptation mea-sures are added to design and implementationstrategies. Thus, integration occurs in instanceswhere adaptation is deemed to be a priority in or-der to effectively achieve development goals.

The rationale for integrating adaptation in devel-opment strategies and practices is underlined bythe fact that many of the interventions required toincrease resilience to climatic changes generallybenefit development objectives. Adaptation re-quires the development of human capital, strength-ening of institutional systems, and sound manage-ment of public finances and natural resources(Adger et al. 2003). Such processes build the re-silience of countries, communities, and house-holds to all shocks and stresses, including climatevariability and change, and are good developmentpractice in themselves.

Mainstreaming climate issues into national devel-opment policies ensures consistency between theneeds of adaptation and poverty eradication. Sepa-ration of the two runs the risk of adaptation poli-cies inadvertently conflicting with developmentand poverty policies, or conversely, developmentpolicies inadvertently increasing vulnerability toclimatic factors. Accordingly, this issue is critical tothe successful eradication of poverty and needs tobe placed at the core of national developmentprocesses.

The experiences described in this section show howclimate issues can be successfully addressed in the

context of development. They have been organizedunder:● Addressing vulnerability in the context of sus-

tainable livelihoods.● Equitable growth and adaptation to climate

change.● Improving governance to mainstream climate

issues in poverty reduction.

In practice, overlaps and synergies will occurbetween actions in these areas. Promoting suchsynergies is critical and demonstrates how diversestakeholders, including governments, civil society,and poor people themselves, must share in the taskof adapting to climate change (Conde and Lons-dale 2003).

2.1 Addressing Vulnerability in the Context ofSustainable Livelihoods

Although poor people have limited income, theyhave assets and capabilities that can be strength-ened to reduce their vulnerability to climatechange. These assets or “capital” can be groupedinto social capital, natural capital, physical capital,human capital, and financial capital (DFID 2002).Adaptation policies should focus on providing sta-ble conditions and support for making the liveli-hood assets of the poor more resilient to climatechange through resource accessibility and thereforming of policies, institutions, and processes. Itis important to ensure that sectoral and other poli-cies do not undermine, but rather reinforce, theopportunities of the poor to access resources, buildassets, and diversify their economic activities toincrease their adaptive capacity to climate change.

Social Capital and Climate ChangeTraditional systems for adapting to climate vari-ability include a range of livelihood strategies,from individual to collective savings mechanismsand migration. Social networks play a fundamentalrole for the poor by providing safety nets as animmediate response in adverse times. In addition,informal ”solidarity” networks may be constitutedor strengthened after climate-related disastersoccur. In the past, interventions from outside haveoften undermined rather than supported the effortsof informal networks. Instead, these networks

Part 2: Adaptation Lessons from Past Experience

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Poverty and Climate Change

should be recognized for the important role theyplay in environmental management in the face ofadversity.

Box 3 indicates insights from some of the ways thatpeople in the Sahel – one of the most climate-sen-sitive areas of the world – have responded todroughts in the past. These approaches are typicalof the way subsistence farmers in many parts of theworld have coped in the face of severe shocks tolivelihoods. The lessons from the example indicatethe need to build upon existing social capital toenhance coping mechanisms of poor people toadapt to climate change.

Box 3Drought and Livelihoods in the Sahel

Livelihoods in the Sahel suffered heavilyduring and after the 1968–73 and the 1984droughts. Adaptation strategies of ruralpeople in Niger provide valuable insights:● Diversification away from agricultural

production is a common response to un-predictable harvests.

● Networks of affinity and trust pull house-holds and individuals together, althoughminor conflicts – some dating back topre-colonial relations – may pull themapart.

● The local agrarian system is dynamic andresponds to individualistic and welladapted livelihood decisions, as well asto environmental disturbances.

● Access to resources is maintained byswitching between capital assets, despitethe existence of poverty at certain timesand for certain people.

● Migrants tend to leave the community tolook for work but usually return.

Source: Batterbury and Warren 1999;Thébaud 1998.

Many traditional risk-sharing mechanisms basedon social capital, such as asset pooling and kinshipnetworks, may not work well for climate risksbecause climate risks often affect all households atthe same time. This is different from other shockssuch as impacts on households from illness, loss ofemployment, or death of the main income earner,because everyone who might be a potential source

of help also faces the same hardship. Additionally,traditional coping strategies may be ineffectivebecause of the possibility of climate changeincreasing the range of climate variability. Conse-quently, fluctuations that are, or will be, experi-enced as a result of climate change may exceed therange around which these traditional strategies arebuilt. This may be further hampered by changes insocial norms and structures, which no longer allowfor the application of traditional coping strategies(Box 4).

Box 4Need for Social Capital Building to Copewith Climate Impacts

In 2000, Kenya experienced its worstdrought in 40 years. Effects were severe forpastoralists because ancient coping mecha-nisms had broken down, either becauseland had been sold or because of barrierserected by the relatively affluent farmers,ranchers, industry, and city residents. Sometraditional drought responses, such as raid-ing of neighboring cattle and killing wild-life, have become illegal and are no longeran option. As societal norms affect tradi-tional behavior, strategies may no longer bevalid and there is the need to support thevulnerable population in identifying newstrategies that enable them to deal withadverse climate and adjust to new socioeco-nomic conditions.

Source: UNEP 2002.

Management of Natural CapitalDegradation of natural resources and increasingwater stress enhance the vulnerability of manyrural communities to climate change. Adapting toclimate change therefore needs to increase theresilience of natural systems and their productivityin order to support the livelihoods of the poor.There are, however, many examples of how policieshave undermined this and led to maladaptation.For example, the strategic development plan for theSenegal River Basin, shared by three countries,emphasized building dams to provide irrigationfor rice crops in response to water stresses. The irri-gated areas had to be subsequently abandoned dueto salinization. A modeling study showed that an

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alternative strategy for the basin of irrigated agro-forestry would have had beneficial impacts for thecatchment area, microclimate and the agriculturalproductivity of the poor (Venema et al. 1997).

Inappropriate natural resource management canexacerbate the vulnerability to climate extremes asillustrated by the impacts of Hurricane Mitch inCentral America, which were intensified because ofdeforestation and degradation of wetlands. Forestsand wetlands act as buffer systems, diminishingsurface run-off in the case of intense rains in addi-tion to providing livelihoods to local communities.The interaction between land-use practices and cli-matic impacts is also well illustrated in the YangtzeBasin in China where deforestation increasedflooding and erosion, which led to the destructionof lives and livelihoods.

However, there are also a growing number of exam-ples of improvements in the use and managementof natural resources, which have enhanced theresilience of ecosystems and had positive effects onthe livelihoods of poor people. In China, a veryhigh proportion of the land is subject to severeland degradation. In these areas, the governmenthas recently undertaken integrated ecosystemsmanagement. At the household level, eco-farmingintegrates renewable energy use such as solarpower, vineyard cultivation, and legume plantingfor fixing sand and providing forage (ADB 1999).In Vietnam, mangrove planting led to improvedresilience of the local population to climaticextremes and provided livelihood opportunities(Box 5).

Box 5 Mangrove Planting in Vietnam

The Vietnam Red Cross (VNRC) has sup-ported local communities in the northerncoastal provinces in planting 12,000 hectareof mangrove trees to break the 1.5-meterwaves typically associated with tropicaltyphoons and to act as buffer to 110 kilo-meter of sea dyke. While the program hascost US$1.1 million, the benefits havealready proved far greater. Costs of dykemaintenance have been reduced by US$7.3million each year. Furthermore, TyphoonWukong in October 2000 claimed no livesinland, caused no damage to the dyke andonly minimal damage to possessions andproperty. The mangrove planting has alsocreated livelihood opportunities for the7,750 families involved in the replantingand protection effort and who are harvest-ing shellfish among the mangroves.

Source: IFRC-RCS 2002.

Physical CapitalPolicy making and planning has often neglectedthe needs of the poor, while they are the most vul-nerable to climate-related shocks and stresses.Development strategies based only on discussionwith politically powerful groups can lead to large-scale infrastructure and technological solutionsthat undermine or are inappropriate for poorhouseholds. Furthermore, infrastructure design isoften solely based on past climatic records and maytherefore not or only insufficiently account forchanges in regional climatic conditions such asmore intense and frequent extreme weather events.By assuming no change, development policies canlead to maladaptation enhancing the vulnerabilityof a region and its population.

It may be necessary to assist poor people in makingtheir physical capital more climate resilientthrough the use of appropriate infrastructure andtechnology. For example, in September 2000, aserious flood in the Mekong delta killed over 300people and affected more than 500,000 houses.Afterwards, the Vietnam Red Cross helped to installflexible flood and typhoon resistant houses thatcan be easily restored after a disaster hits. They are

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a successful adaptation strategy with direct benefitsfor the livelihoods of the poor. Except for steelframes and a platform that allows the house to bequickly raised if water rises, all materials are cheapand locally available and the house looks similar totraditional houses.

Human CapitalClimate change presents many complex risks todifferent groups and sectors over different time-frames and localities. Adaptation is likely to be suc-cessful if people are informed about climatechange, how it affects them, and options for doingsomething about it. Successful climate changeinterventions are dependent on high-quality acces-sible information to allow effective decision mak-ing. As the impacts of climate change are difficultto predict accurately, adaptation activities need tobe flexible and responsive to new information, androbust to withstand a wide range of plausiblefutures. The use of risk management and copingthresholds is an area of applied adaptation researchof growing importance (Jones and Boer 2003;Jones and Mearns 2003).

Agricultural climate information is now used toadvise farmers about their choice of crops andmethods of cultivation, which in turn has providedmajor benefits in terms of increased yields and pre-venting food shortages. Similarly, better informa-tion and early warning systems for farmers canreduce vulnerability to inter-annual climate varia-tions and enable responses to be proactive ratherthan reactive (Box 6).

Box 6Climate Information for Southern AfricanFarmers

A recent review of the international initia-tive on Regional Climate Outlook Forums(RCOFs) has found many benefits in help-ing the poor to cope. RCOFs were first initi-ated in 1996 and gained momentum as aregional response to the major El Niño of1998. RCOFs are rapidly becoming themain regional mechanism for providingseasonal climate forecasts to policymakersand for disseminating climate informationto users, including farmers.

The forums bring together climate scientists,operational forecasters and end-users. Cli-mate outlook guidance is agreed and theimplications for climate-sensitive sectors arediscussed. The guidance is presented in termsof probabilities of rainfall being in the rangesof previous dry or wet years. The forums havehelped to develop links and mutual under-standing between meteorologists and end-users of seasonal forecasts and have stimulat-ed the development of national seasonal pre-dictive capacity in Africa. They have alsoraised awareness of the issues of inter-annualclimate variability and climate change andprovided an impetus for adaptation activities.

Source: Hulme 1996; WMO et al. 2000.

Climate information can generate substantial ben-efits in other areas as well, including water man-agement, planning and delivery of health services,and improved warning for extreme weather events.

As the poor already have a lot of knowledge abouthow to cope with climate variability, adaptationactivities should take account of this knowledge,where benefits are proven. Incorporating localknowledge into policy actions may help govern-ments to accommodate specific needs of poor peo-ple and ensure that strategies are taken up by localcommunities.

Box 7 illustrates the use of folklore by Andean com-munities, which anticipate the abundance of rain dur-ing the growing season by the brightness of the starsand adjust their crop planting strategies accordingly.

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Box 7Traditional Forecasting in the Andes

Indigenous farmers in some communitiesof the high Andes of Peru and Boliviaobserve the Pleiades star constellation togain insights into the possible weather sev-eral months into the future. They observethe overall brightness, the size, the date offirst appearance, and the position of thebrightest star in the cluster. If the starsappear clear in the pre-dawn sky, earlyabundant rains and a rich potato crop isanticipated. If the stars appear dim, a small-er harvest is expected due to late and re-duced rainfall. The farmers adjust theirplanting practices accordingly to minimizethe negative impact of these anticipatedweather conditions.

Scientists have found that the visibility ofthe constellation, which also determinesthe time of its first appearance in the sky,might be related to the presence of wispycirrus clouds high in the atmosphere, andthat these are associated with the warmphase of El Niño. Andean farmers have ineffect been forecasting El Niño for at least400 years, and are able to adjust theirplanting schedule if poor or later rains areexpected.

Source: Orlove et al. 2000.

In Southern Africa numerous adaptation tech-niques are used by poorer farmers to deal withanticipated drought. These include water and soilmanagement techniques, resistant crop varieties,and food production methods. However, thesetechniques are often known only locally, or to cer-tain ethnic groups.

It is necessary to further the understanding of howsuch traditional knowledge is, and can be, utilizedby communities, and also how climate change willimpact on the reliability of such practices in thefuture.

Financial Capital – Promoting Safety-NetMechanismsWhile the poor have limited financial assets, thereare ways for them to mobilize their own savings

and reduce financial risk. The micro-finance indus-try has grown considerably in the past twenty years,with micro-insurance a relatively recent addition(World Bank 2000). While micro-insurance facesthe standard challenges inherent in all insuranceschemes, it has to deal with additional issues aris-ing from catering to poor households that alreadyrepresent high insurance risks.

One way to overcome these difficulties is by the useof informal networks of trust that exist within wellestablished groups. Wodaabe herders in Niger haveinformal systems for managing risks, such as thehabbamae. These provide loans to replace reproduc-tive stock lost to natural events. The habbamaestocking system is illustrative of community-levelinstitutional arrangements that, with minimaladditional support, can be used to reduce income-related risks and strengthen the capacity to cope.

A number of countries are now developing moreformal schemes; for example Morocco plans tooffer sunflower and cereal grain farmers insurancethat would pay out when rainfall is below certainthresholds during critical growing periods (Mosley2000; Skees et al. 1999; Hees et al. 2002). (See alsopage 20).

2.2 Equitable Growth and Adaptation to Climate Change

Economic growth is important for generatinglivelihood opportunities for poor people, allowingthem to move out of poverty (see Bardhan 1996;Dollar and Kray 2000; Ravallion 2000). It can con-tribute to the ability of governments to provideimportant services, such as health and education,which are key to achieving the Millennium Devel-opment Goals. The extent, pattern, and distribu-tion of growth in a country is the outcome of theinteraction between its initial conditions, its insti-tutions, its policy choices, the external shocks orstimuli it receives, and chance. However, economicgrowth by itself is not a sufficient condition forpoverty eradication. The pattern or ”quality” ofeconomic growth is as important to eradicatingpoverty as the absolute level of that growth.Growth benefits the poor most when it occurs inareas of the economy that provide opportunitiesfor increased employment and higher returns forpoor people’s assets.

Climatic variability affects short-term economicgrowth in many countries. Droughts or floods

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severely disrupt economies and it can take yearsbefore the impact of such shocks fade and eco-nomies can return to their previous growth paths.Moreover, ongoing climate change will further in-crease the vulnerability of poor people, particular-ly for economies that are heavily dependent uponnatural resources (for example water) and relatedclimate sensitive economic sectors (such as agri-culture, forestry, and fisheries). Figure 2 shows theimpact of El Niño related events on the agricultur-al productivity of Malawi, Zimbabwe and Zambia,which also has considerable ramifications for theirGDP. As climate change is expected to exacerbateclimatic extremes associated with El Niño years,this underlines the need to address climate relatedvulnerability in the context of development strate-gies.

Climate change can depress the economy by affect-ing the sources of growth. The exact nature andscale will depend on a number of factors including:● Quality of economic growth and distribution

of its benefits.● Structure of the economy.● Ability of the government to finance important

social services such as education and health.● Longer-term implications of disruption to exist-

ing growth paths through, for example damageto infrastructure.

● Success of adaptation efforts implemented inresponse to the anticipated or experiencedchange.

Given the centrality of growth to poverty eradica-tion, there is a need for measures aimed at mini-mizing climate’s negative impacts on a country’sgrowth strategy. Experience suggests that in adopt-ing such an approach there is scope for the follow-ing interventions.

Mainstreaming Climate Issues into EconomicPlanning and the Budget ProcessWhile climatic change is just one out of severalpossible external events to which economies andsocieties are exposed, appropriate adaptationresponses may be critical to maintain growthprospects. Governments can attempt to increasethe resilience of their growth strategies throughimplementing effective adaptation policies to bothshort-term and long-term impacts of climate ontheir economies. This is best achieved by adoptingflexible economic policies based on an under-standing of climatic risks and risk management.Accordingly, climate issues should be main-streamed into national economic planning andbudgetary processes, both to ensure macroeco-nomic stability and to ensure budgetary allocationsfor activities that minimize climate risk.

Figure 2 Maize Production in Selected South African Countries* versus Niño 3 Data Source: Dilley et al. 1997

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The budget is a key process in any country for iden-tifying and funding development priorities. Giventheir growing importance within the developmentprocess, climate adaptation activities should beintegrated in the budget framework. This willensure that climate change interventions are prop-erly funded over the long term, integrated into rel-evant sectoral priorities, and balanced against othercompeting priorities.

In addition, economic management, particularly inthe face of extreme events, requires improvedmeans to manage the consequences of shocksthrough effective inclusion of contingencies for cli-matic variability within budget planning processes.For instance, as Box 8 illustrates, integration of dis-aster management as a component of macroeco-nomic projections, including public expenditureplanning, allows the exploration of more effectivefinancial options at the country and internationallevel.

Box 8Economic Planning for Disasters in Hon-duras

An exercise to model the macroeconomicimpacts of disasters in Honduras developeda framework to analyze the economicimpacts of disasters and policies to reducethem. Initially, the country estimated annu-al expected losses of US$64 million per year(0.49 percent of capital stock) due to natur-al catastrophes.

Subsequently, the macroeconomic impactsof direct losses were estimated, as shown inthe graph. Honduras considered cases inwhich access to post-disaster financing maybe limited. The figure demonstrates that ifforeign reserves are only accessible after thecatastrophe, the event could result in stag-nant GDP over the following eight years.The first trajectory, marked with boxes, rep-resents projections for expected annualgrowth rates of between 5 and 6 percent.The second growth trajectory, marked withtriangles, incorporates the effects of cata-strophic exposure assuming the countrycannot obtain sufficient foreign reserves orexternal funds to finance post-disaster loss-es. This new growth trajectory demonstratesthat catastrophe exposure has the potentialto impede future growth of the Honduraneconomy.

Source: Freeman et al. 2001.

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Increasing the Resilience of Infrastructure andInvestmentsEstimates indicate that 50 to 75 percent of econom-ic losses from Hurricane Mitch resulted from inade-quate design and location of infrastructure, such ashousing, roads, bridges, and industry (Charveriat2000). However, despite growing awareness, there iscurrently no formal mechanism for assessing theimpacts of climate events and conditions on infra-structure and development activities.

Although precise information from climate changeprojections about the probability of different cli-mate events is limited, it is important to simulatehow a range of events would impact on the out-come of a development activity; in many cases itcould potentially entail a re-examination of theactivity. Until now, the application of vulnerabilityassessment information in project appraisals hasbeen extremely limited. Cost-benefit analysis needsto highlight the impact of various scenarios on thepoorest and to incorporate, to the extent possible,an evaluation of environmental externalities(Dixon et al. 1988, 1994). Initially, such evaluationmay focus on infrastructure projects that tend tohave a long economic life, such as dams, roads,bridges, and electricity power supply and distribu-tion systems.

There are also many examples of the need forimproved climate-related codes and standards forinfrastructure design, to ensure a decrease in thevulnerability of the poor. For example, the in-creasing variability in precipitation may need larg-er reservoirs, and more frequent storms may neces-sitate redesign of coastal infrastructure to with-stand storms and storm surges. Examples of regula-tory tools include land-use planning, water-basinmanagement, and implementation of storm-resis-tant building codes. In many cases, these regulato-ry interventions exist but have limited impact anddo not pay adequate attention to the communitiesthat may be adversely impacted. It is thereforeimportant that vulnerability assessments and cli-mate-related codes and standards are integratedinto the design and maintenance of infrastructure.

Improving Management Systems and TechnologyGrowth and development in areas dependent uponnatural resources are often particularly climate sen-sitive and current patterns of resource use andmanagement may need to be changed in order topromote climate resilience.

For example, many developing countries have apersistent and systemic water crisis in terms of bothwater stress and water scarcity. With projectedchanges in climate, water stress and the frequencyand magnitudes of droughts are both likely to beexacerbated in many arid and semi-arid countriesin Africa and the Middle East (IPCC 2001b). There-fore, managing the demand for water through pol-icy instruments, including a sound regulatory envi-ronment and an incentive-based system – coveringresource rights and pollution permits – would be akey to reducing vulnerability.

Many crops, such as rice, are already at the limit oftheir temperature tolerance, and increases in meantemperature and climate variability in the tropicalcountries could result in more years with loweryields (IPCC 2001b). However, agricultural man-agement models that promote dryland agriculturecould increase the resilience of agricultural systemsand the development of drought-resistant speciescould enhance the ability to cope with reducedwater availability. Consequently, more effectiveadaptation can be achieved through improvedresource management systems and use of availabletechnology.

Spreading Risk – Enhancing the FinancialResilience of the PoorNew capacities, technical support, and policyinstruments are required that will allow the incor-poration of risk management into economic andsectoral planning instruments and improve accessby the poor to insurance and other safety-netmechanisms. A number of initiatives are currentlybeing developed in order to find a more innovativeapproach to structuring risk sharing, so that insur-ance markets can better absorb catastrophe lossesand provide affordable insurance for poor peopleand governments. This also includes the establish-ment of public-private or national-internationalpartnerships. For instance, formal sector interna-tional insurers are being sought to reinsure theportfolios of institutions like the Grameen Bank inBangladesh.

In the absence of insurance markets, householdstry to cope with weather risks by: (a) self-insuringthrough asset accumulation, savings, and access tocredit; (b) income diversification; and (c) infor-mal insurance arrangements. In most poor coun-tries and for most poor households, credit and sav-ings markets are imperfect and asset accumulation

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is never enough in times of a crisis. Diversificationto other activities is difficult because householdslack skills, information, and capital to do some-thing else. Many households adopt low-risk andlow-yield production patterns to ensure a mini-mum income. These production patterns come atthe expense of perhaps much riskier, but higher-return, production that could create incomegrowth and the build-up of capital. Finally, infor-mal insurance arrangements at the local commu-nity level often break down when faced with dis-asters that are geographically widespread, such assevere weather events, catastrophic droughts, andfloods, because all households suffer at the sametime.

Traditional insurance markets dealing with weath-er related risks have a very low penetration indeveloping countries, although there is a clearneed to establish systems to provide for insurancecoverage in cases of catastrophic weather events.However, because of the geographically wide-spread nature of many weather events, a largenumber of people will make claims at the sametime and thus local insurance companies couldface huge losses.

At the macro level, several governments in devel-oping countries have some ad hoc emergency assis-tance programs that fund post-disaster reliefefforts. Because of the ad hoc nature of these gov-ernment programs, it is not possible to find inter-national reinsurance and thus governments tend toself-insure through budgetary allocation. Such self-insured programs could run out of funds if a cata-strophic event occurs. Some governments in poor-er countries rely on donors to provide funds in caseof disasters but donor funds can be too little or toolate.

Recent developments in global financial and insur-ance/reinsurance markets are making it increasing-ly feasible to spread weather risks across countries.New financial and insurance instruments, such ascatastrophe bonds and weather insurance con-tracts, offer innovative ways of packaging the risksassumed by local insurers and governments. Forexample, catastrophe bonds issued against rainfallevents in developing countries could be appealingto international investment bankers because theirrisk would be uncorrelated with the risks of mostother financial investments. Similarly, several inter-national insurers and weather risk companies

would like to diversify their weather related riskportfolio by including weather risks in developingcountries. Market mechanisms for risk manage-ment do not always develop on their own, becausethey have historically interfered with local institu-tions and the large international markets. Govern-ments and bilateral/multilateral financial institu-tions can help establish and support the develop-ment of sustainable structures (Box 9).

An important challenge to developing weatherinsurance of this kind is the availability of reliableand verifiable data on weather patterns. Further-more, weather stations with appropriate hardwaresystems need to be put in place to ensure reliablereadings on insured events. However, weatherevents can also vary spatially, so the existence ofmicroclimates and localized disasters needs to betaken into account. In some cases, weather eventsshow a trend, for example a negative rainfall trend,signifying higher probability for droughts—thiscan pose a challenge in designing a drought insur-ance program. Hence, while insurance schemes canhelp to spread the risk of climate impacts, theirlimitations need to be carefully considered, partic-ularly because climate change may cause changesin climate variability and the occurrence of extremeevents in a region, and past experiences may notapply to the future.

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Box 9Mexico’s Experience in Funding NaturalDisaster Relief

In Mexico, in 1996, the government estab-lished a Fund for Natural Disasters(FONDEN) for post-disaster financing forreconstruction of public infrastructure andcompensation to low-income producers forcrop and livestock losses arising from nat-ural disasters. FONDEN targets the benefi-ciaries and has limits to amounts it disburs-es per beneficiary. The intention is not tocompete with private insurance. FONDENpayments are triggered only when droughts,frost, or other weather perils affect mostpeople in a region — that is, FONDEN paysout against catastrophic systemic events. Inaddition, more recently, FONDEN has start-ed to adopt objective rules for declaring cat-astrophic events. For example, FONDENrules that livestock owners are eligible fordrought payouts when cumulative rainfall isbelow either 50% of its historical average orhistorical minimum for two consecutivemonths. Similarly, frost is declared whentemperatures fall below a certain leveldepending on the crop. Using parametricrules for triggering payments removes an adhoc dimension in the declaration of cata-strophes and reduces the political interfer-ence in FONDEN’s operations. The govern-ment of Mexico is currently looking into thefeasibility of obtaining financial reinsur-ance for FONDEN to cover its exposurefrom weather risks affecting the agriculturalsector.

In addition, providing catastrophic insur-ance coverage has encouraged the forma-tion of mutual insurance funds amongstfarmer organizations. These farmer organi-zations are called fondos de aseguramiento(known as fondos), formed to providemutual crop insurance to their members.The fondos collect premiums, creatingreserves to pay indemnities and cover oper-ational costs. However, in the event of cata-strophic weather events the collected premi-ums and reserves are not sufficient to coverthe losses. This is because a catastropheaffects all farmers at the same time and the

mutual insurance needs to make paymentsto all of them at the same time. Research bythe World Bank identified drought, excesshumidity, and frost as the main weather per-ils that represent catastrophic risks for thefondos. These risks depend on the geo-graphic location of the fondos, so each oneis exposed to mainly one or two weatherrisks.

Source: World Bank 2000; Skees et al. 2001.

2.3 Improving Governance to Mainstream Cli-mate Issues in Poverty Reduction

Public institutions, including both political sys-tems and civil service institutions, are key to deter-mining and implementing effective decisions. Cli-mate change—which brings new and unknownrisks, difficult choices, and potential suddenshocks—reinforces the need for responsive andaccountable institutions. This is illustrated in anexample on constructing and maintaining floodcontrol systems in Bangladesh (Box 10), whichdemonstrates that good governance must underpineffective adaptation strategies. By making publicinstitutions responsive, participative, and account-able to those they serve, decision making processand implementation activities can be robustenough to deal with the challenge of climatechange.

Box 10Public Accountability for Flood Protectionin Bangladesh

Flooding is a fact of life in Bangladesh, withone third of cultivated land flooded in anormal monsoon year. People in the HaorBasin have learned to cope, as the flood-plains are some of the most productive fish-eries in the country and the region has afood surplus providing up to 10 percent ofnational grain supplies. But the food systemis fragile; 80 percent of people are share-croppers or landless laborers and a power-ful elite control land and fishing rights.While expected floods can be managed,flash floods can cause severe damage tohomes and crops.

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To prevent this, the Water DevelopmentBoard constructed over 800 kilometers ofembankments with responsibility for main-tenance shared between government andresidents. In 2002, after complaints by resi-dents about lack of repairs to embank-ments, construction mismanagement, lackof monitoring, and corruption, a flashflood hit just before the main harvest. Itdestroyed a third of all infrastructure and20 percent of the crop, leaving 1.4 millionpeople in the Haor Basin facing food short-ages. In response to visits to the area byactivists and government officials, relief wasprovided and steps taken to prevent a simi-lar outcome in the future. The Minister forWater Resources has agreed to stamp outcorruption in construction and some seniorWater Board officials have been removedwhile a judicial inquiry is underway.

The State Minister for Disaster Managementhas announced that, for the first time in 20years, elected officials will be involved inembankment construction and mainte-nance. However, since local governmentremains weak, a local civil society group,HUNO, is working with the local govern-ment and Water Board to develop a citizen-based monitoring system.

Sources: Sashankar 2002; DFID 2002.

The Role of Civil Society in Climate Change Policies and ProgramsFor climate adaptation to be effective, empoweringcivil society to participate in the assessment process,including identifying and implementing adaptationactivities, is especially important (see Box 11). How-ever, in order to enhance their participation, it isimportant to ensure that they have access to infor-mation, analysis, and knowledge about the impactof climate change on their lives. Vulnerabilityassessments and adaptation measures are morelikely to be realistic and effective if they have inputfrom those who will be affected by climate changeand who are best placed to manage the relevantrisks. At the same time, adaptation reflects a contin-uing learning process, and community participa-tion in the assessment process could itself enablethe community to initiate adaptation measures.

Box 11Reducing the Vulnerability of Women toCyclones in Bangladesh

The community-based cyclone prepared-ness program in Bangladesh has found thatwhere women were not involved in village-level disaster preparedness committees,responsible for maintaining cyclone shel-ters and transmitting warnings, they madeup the highest proportion of cyclone vic-tims. In Cox’s Bazaar in east Bangladesh,where women are now fully involved in dis-aster preparedness and support activities(education, reproductive health, self-helpgroups, and small and medium enterpris-es), there has been a huge reduction in thenumbers of women killed or affected.

Source: IFRC-RCS 2002.

Engaging broader civil society, including commu-nity groups, religious organizations, trade unions,professional associations, the media, and publicinterest organizations, is also important. Suchgroups can be instrumental in raising awareness ofclimate change impacts, in supporting poor peopleas they engage in adaptation activities, in providingvaluable knowledge, and in monitoring govern-mental performance and holding government toaccount in its efforts to cope with climate change.Consequently, civil society, and particularly thepoor, must be empowered to participate in theassessment process and in identifying adaptationactivities.

Monitoring and Assessment of Poverty and Climate ChangeUnderstanding how climate change is increasingthe vulnerability of the poor through its impact ontheir livelihoods, health, and economic opportuni-ties is crucial to effective policy responses.

Improved use of climate information will requirestrengthening existing institutions and processes todevelop effective procedures for information col-lection and dissemination. This will include, andin turn contribute to, the development of trust andmotivation among end-users. As well as the need toensure that climatic information is focused on theneeds of the poor, there are two kinds of chal-lenges: the first involves situations where informa-

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tion exists, but is poorly coordinated and often notused, and the second involves situations in whichrelevant information is lacking. Generally, vulnera-bility assessments for current climate variability aremore widely available, while assessments for futureclimate variability are much fewer – although grow-ing in number.

The considerable body of information about cur-rent climate variability includes the growing num-ber of vulnerability assessments at all spatial scales(UNEP 2001; Downing and Patwardhan 2003), butdespite this progress vulnerability assessments arestill limited in number for poor countries. Vulner-ability maps account for climate-induced risks tocrop production, water, health, and so on. TheWorld Food Programme has its own vulnerability-mapping unit and non-governmental organiza-tions like the Save the Children Fund also havetheir own assessments. The challenge is to increasethe effectiveness of the information by coordinat-ing data gathering efforts to avoid duplication andto ensure that the data really are being used toinform and influence decisions and action. Thereare many cases demonstrating that the real prob-lem is not lack of vulnerability assessments or earlywarning – but the lack of prompt action on suchearly warnings.

However, sometimes the problem is a lack of rele-vant and reliable poverty-climate information. Inparticular, action is needed to improve short-termimpact information and to ensure that it is used. Todate, many climate change vulnerability, impact,and adaptation assessments have focused on themedium to long term (year 2050 or even 2100).This timeframe does not coincide with the scope ofdecision making by politicians and governments,who are guided by short-term political cycles andannual budgets. Shorter-term probabilistic climateoutlooks, from the seasonal to 3–10 year timescale, could therefore be useful for the develop-ment of rapid, but preliminary, assessments. Thisfocus on the short run will help to make the assess-ments more useful for reducing poverty now. Nev-ertheless, it is important to recognize and alsoimprove the long-term projections in climatetrends to ensure that no measures are taken nowthat lead to maladaptation in the long run.

Development of possible socioeconomic scenariosfor the future has proven problematic due to thelarge uncertainties associated with projecting likely

development paths. Guidelines for the design ofsocioeconomic scenarios are now developed(UNDP 2001), and some countries – like Chinaand India – are using them as part of their assess-ments. The development of diverse scenarios basedon the integration of climate change and povertydata – including, but not limited to, Poverty Reduc-tion Strategy Papers (PRSPs) – can inform the de-sign of more effective adaptation strategies andplanning options.

In conclusion, effective and transparent institu-tions must be in place to ensure that high qualityinformation reflecting the needs of the poor is pro-duced in a participative manner, made accessible,and acted upon. This is key to effective decisionmaking.

Coordination of Adaptation by GovernmentVulnerability assessments and the identification ofcross-sectoral dimensions of climate change haveled some countries – which usually are already vul-nerable to today’s climate – to assign the generalresponsibility of climate change management to aministry with a broad mandate. In Kiribati, forexample, the national adaptation program is man-aged by the Ministry of Finance, which helps toensure a coordinated response and that other poli-cies do not inadvertently increase the vulnerabilityto climate change (Box 12).

Box 12Kiribati’s Mainstreaming in NationalPlanning Processes

Kiribati is one of the most vulnerable coun-tries in the world to the effects of climatechange, climate variability, and sea level rise.Most of the land in Tarawa, Kiribati’s largestand most populous island, is less than 3meters above sea level, with an averagewidth of only 450 meters. The islands areexposed to storm surges and to droughts,particularly during La Niña events. Manyadaptation measures that address immedi-ate risks are the same as those recommend-ed for adapting to climate change.

The government of Kiribati is moving to atwo-phase Adaptation Program, whichwould address mainstreaming adaptation intheir national development framework. The

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Box 13Mozambique’s Action Plan for PovertyReduction

Mozambique is particularly vulnerable tonatural disasters, which impact heavily onthe poor. The floods it experienced in 2000and 2001 had far-reaching social and eco-nomic consequences for the poor and thecountry’s economic growth. The impact ofnatural disasters on the poor is recognizedin Mozambique’s Action Plan for the Reduc-tion of Absolute Poverty 2001–2005, inwhich reducing vulnerability to natural dis-asters is one of the key action areas. TheAction Plan states:

Natural disasters are a risk factor, whichaffect the pace of economic growth, anddestroy assets of the poorest segments ofthe population in affected areas, reducingthem to a state of dependency, at least tem-porarily, on donations. Natural disastersaffect the living conditions of affected pop-ulations, and constitute an obstacle to adefinitive break with certain degrees andpatterns of poverty. Therefore, measuresaimed at managing these risks are of theutmost importance.

The Action Plan goes on to recommend thataction be taken to strengthen the nationalcapacity to respond to natural disaster byraising the standard of the national earlywarning system.

Source: Mozambique 2001.

In addition to national level planning, experiencesuggests that climate adaptation also needs to befollowed through to local level planning andimplementation to be effective. With increasingdecentralization, local governments are often keyto effective implementation of any policy in devel-oping countries. Adaptation strategies will requirefusing government- and institution-level approach-es with bottom-up approaches rooted in regional,national, and local knowledge (Niang-Diop andBosch 2003).

Finally, key climate-sensitive sectors, such as agri-culture and infrastructure, also need to integrate

Program is overseen by an Adaptation Work-ing Group, chaired by the Secretary to theCabinet, and managed by the Ministry ofFinance and Economic Planning. All otherconcerned Ministries are represented on theAdaptation Working Group, along with fullycommitted senior-level staff. The Prepara-tion Phase (scheduled to last two years) willinvolve a process of national consultationsbetween key government ministries, the pri-vate sector, non-governmental organiza-tions, and civil society to agree on a nation-al vision for adaptation, along with broadbenchmark indicators that would be incor-porated into national economic planning.The Implementation Phase (three to fouryears) would start once adaptation bench-marks are agreed and ideally be supportedby incremental grant financing from donorsfor top-up of public expenditures againstagreed adaptation benchmarks.

Source: Bettencourt 2002.

Mainstreaming Adaptation into PlanningProcessesAll countries have some process to identify andimplement key priorities at national, subnational,and sectoral levels. At the national level, this maybe a long-term development plan, a Poverty Reduc-tion Strategy (PRS), a five-year planning process, ora national strategy for sustainable development(OECD 2001). Mozambique’s Action Plan forPoverty Reduction represents an example of howresponses to climate risks can be integrated intonational development strategies (Box 13).

The prioritization of development interventionsnormally occurs in the Office of the President orPrime Minister, in Planning Agencies, or in Min-istries of Finance. The process varies from countryto country and, in large countries, often fromprovince to province. The priority-setting processtypically involves technical analyses as well as par-ticipatory inputs by various stakeholders. Thedesign of adaptation activities will be context spe-cific, based on the country’s specific developmentplanning process and the particular analytical andparticipatory methodologies used.

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climate adaptation activities. For example, inKenya, the total area suitable for growing tea maybe dramatically reduced with a temperatureincrease of 2°C in comparison to 1990 (Figure 3).Only higher-elevation areas would remain appro-priate for tea growing; other areas would becometoo hot to grow tea. This work demonstrates thepotential dangers of not taking climate change intoaccount in strategic sectoral planning. Mainstream-ing climate issues into broader planning activitieswould lead policymakers at least to consider theimpacts on export earnings and may encouragediversification into more climate-resilient food

crops in vulnerable areas. Whatever form the prior-ity-setting process takes, it should consider relevantclimate change adaptation activities.

As this section has demonstrated, for adaptation tobe effective, development of adaptive capacity toclimate variability and change should be main-streamed into national support for poverty reduc-tion and sustainable development. The task aheadfor the development community is to increaseadaptive capacities and help to implement specificactions for addressing climate change impacts.

Figure 3 Potential Impacts of Temperature Increases onTea Growing in Kenya

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This document has argued that climate changeimpacts severely threaten development effortsand opportunities across the developing world.Through the United Nations Framework Con-vention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)5, effortshave been initiated to develop and increase theadaptive capacity of poor people and the poorercountries to the impacts of climate change. TheUNFCCC decisions accept that sustainabledevelopment must be the framework for adapta-tion activities and that both immediate andlong-term responses to the adverse impacts ofclimate change are needed.

Many of these responses are ”no regrets” mea-sures, which, if implemented, strengthen theoverall sustainable development process. No-regrets policies and measures would generate netsocial benefits whether or not there is human-induced climate change (IPCC 2001b). While inprinciple no-regrets measures are beneficial to theeconomy and their realization may in some casesrequire no or little additional funding, consider-able transaction costs may be involved in othercases. The challenge is to fine-tune policies andpractices by removing barriers that currently con-strain the adoption of no-regrets adaptationresponses. Depending on the rate and magnitudeof climate change, further specific adaptation mea-sures may become necessary and require addition-al funding. It is important to recall that the needfor, and therefore also the cost of, adaptation isultimately tied to mitigation efforts.

Below are the areas of action for all stakeholders,given an understanding that the main objective is tomainstream and integrate adaptation responses intosustainable development processes and activities.

3.1 Mainstream Adaptation into SustainableDevelopment

Development Agencies and DonorsSupport for general poverty reduction and sustain-able development lies at the core of developmentagencies’ programs. Given the gravity of climateissues and their potential impact on achieving theMillennium Development Goals by 2015 and sus-

taining progress beyond 2015, development agen-cies need to give more consideration to climatechange in their work.

International development agencies should takethe lead in internalizing climate issues in all theirwork by ensuring robustness of poverty reductionprograms to climate change. This would requiredevelopment of tools and methodologies, trainingand awareness raising of senior management andstaff, and the possible modification of their owninstitutional processes to ensure that climate vul-nerability is addressed with due diligence6.

Over recent years, several countries and regionshave developed vulnerability and adaptationassessments, as well as practical policy proposalsand strategic implementation plans to address cli-mate change. This knowledge needs to be integrat-ed into development support so as to manage cli-mate vulnerability along with other non-climaterisks in project design and implementation. Threewindows of opportunity are available to enablethis integration.

First, there is an immediate opportunity to analyzeprojects and practices that show how the transla-tion of adaptation planning and assessment intoproject design will provide real benefits. This can

Part 3: The Way Forward

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ultimately facilitate the mainstreaming of climatechange issues into national policy and sustainabledevelopment planning.

Second is the opportunity to start implementingadaptation activities where sufficient informationis available. Such activities need to be of immediateconcern to the livelihoods of poor people, such aswater resources management, land management,health, agriculture, infrastructure development,fragile ecosystems, and integrated coastal zonemanagement. There is also a need for climatechange related disaster prevention and prepared-ness to be more proactive and development-orient-ed. At the same time, development efforts shouldfully incorporate disaster prevention and pre-paredness.

Third is the opportunity to implement the priorityadaptation activities identified by the UNFCCC7,

especially in cooperation with its financial mecha-nism, the Global Environment Facility (GEF). Inthis context, collaboration between the Develop-ment and Environment Ministries of OECD coun-tries would help to harmonize adaptation withinthe development cooperation framework and with-in the UNFCCC focus (OECD 2002).

Governments in Developing CountriesThe efforts of development agencies to address cli-mate change should support and complementthose of developing-country governments in main-streaming climate issues in national developmentframeworks, sectoral planning and budgetingprocesses, and in integrating adaptation measuresin the implementation of development projects.

In the context of regional, national, and localneeds and sustainable development imperatives,adaptation interventions often form only a subsetof many desirable interventions. Interventions toaddress climate-induced increased vulnerabilitycompete with interventions to address otherimportant issues such as indebtedness, HIV/AIDS,increasing urban poverty, macroeconomic instabil-ity, and increasing inequality. Consequently, fol-lowing assessments of vulnerability and adaptationoptions, adaptation interventions, where necessary,would need to be prioritized in the context of otherdevelopment interventions. The assessment andprioritization processes would necessarily requireengagement between civil society, the government,and the private sector.

In order to internalize the identified priorities, it isnecessary to enable institutional processes to antic-ipate climate-related vulnerability. This emphasizesthe importance of the budget process. Even if thedevelopment priorities are ultimately funded insome countries through development assistance,this expenditure should be included within thebudget framework to ensure proper planning andfinancial management and the correct prioritiza-tion amongst competing demands for resourceswithin the country itself. This will ensure that theyare properly funded over the long term, that theyare integrated into relevant sectoral priorities, andthat they can be balanced against other competingpriorities.

The pervasive nature of interventions requiredacross the economy to address climate-related vul-nerability suggests that in some cases a Ministry

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with a broad mandate, for example the Ministry ofFinance or Planning, is most appropriate to coor-dinate adaptation interventions. In other cases,where vulnerability increases are largely confinedto a single sector (for example water or agricul-ture), strengthening the sectoral Ministry may bethe key institutional intervention.

3.2 Continue and Strengthen Assessment andInformation Gathering

Internalizing climate vulnerability into the devel-opment process, both within the developmentagencies as well as within country governments,will require assessments of current and future cli-mate vulnerability. Within a development project,such assessments should include both a participa-tory analysis of the vulnerability of the communi-ty, ecosystem, and socioeconomic sector that theproject addresses, and an assessment of the effectsof the project on the vulnerability of the commu-nity, ecosystem, and socioeconomic sector.

This document has argued the importance of boththe geographic specificity of increased vulnerabili-ty and of local, sometimes informal, knowledge todeal with climate variability. This highlights theimportance of capturing local knowledge, review-ing and assessing its applicability, and its dissemi-nation amongst other communities and relevantagencies.

Assessment related activities should build on thesignificant work already undertaken by many coun-tries to prepare vulnerability assessments in theframework of the preparation of National Com-munications to the UNFCCC. Best practice exam-ples are the National Communications of Mongo-lia, Ethiopia, Maldives, Yemen (Mongolia 2001;Ethiopia 2001; Maldives 2001; Yemen 2001), andthe regional assessments developed by the Pacificand the Caribbean Small Island States. Typically,these documents have been developed from theperspective of the livelihood approach, givingemphasis of the impact of climate change on peo-ple’s lives, instead of solely focusing on physicaland natural changes.

International support is important to create anenabling environment in developing countries tocarry out vulnerability assessments of relevance totheir needs and priorities. This could includestrengthening infrastructure for data collection anddissemination, capacity building for scientific and

socioeconomic assessments, and for related policyanalyses.

Vulnerability assessments and their integrationinto development policy and implementation is anevolving process. The incorporation of vulnerabili-ty assessments requires strengthening human andinstitutional capacity in national and internationaldevelopment agencies and appropriate civil societyorganizations to support the information and deci-sion making needs of individuals, and realign insti-tutional practices where appropriate. Recognizingthe importance of increased knowledge sharing,some development agencies have created an opennetwork called the Vulnerability and AdaptationResource Group (VARG) to enhance knowledgesharing8.

3.3 Engagement with the UNFCCC ProcessThe UNFCCC has played a valuable role in assist-ing countries to consider adaptation responsesthrough ”enabling activities” to promote capacitybuilding, public and political awareness creation,sustainability of institutional arrangements, sus-tainability of capacities, and integration of climatechange adaptation measures into national develop-ment policies. The first round of enabling activitiesmust be seen as a first step, but many of theseobjectives, in particular the integration of climatechange responses into national development poli-cies, are yet to be completed in any country(Amous et al. 2000). In the absence of prior expe-rience, unrealistically high goals were set consider-ing the limited funds and time available. As thefirst round was undertaken, it became apparentthat the methodologies for vulnerability and adap-tation assessment need to be further developed toenable the integration of these assessments intodevelopment practices.

However, the main reason for the weakness ofadaptation activities promoted by the internation-al community has been institutional. The processhas been led by the UNFCCC national focal points,which are normally situated within Ministries ofEnvironment, which often have limited links andleverage over other line Ministries. Developing acoherent response to adaptation requires integrat-ing climate change adaptation into the activities ofother ministries, such as Finance, Economic Affairs,Planning, and key sectoral line Ministries.

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The implementation and effectiveness of theUNFCCC process in addressing global climatechange, especially in developing countries, is close-ly linked to its ability to simultaneously furtherdevelopment and poverty reduction goals. Capaci-ty building to support and facilitate these linkageswill enhance the sensitivity of poverty reductionpolicies to climate issues.

Recently, the UNFCCC has also mandated supportfor adaptation activities through three Funds (theLeast Developed Country Fund, the Special Cli-mate Change Fund, and the Kyoto Protocol Adap-tation Fund). The LDC Fund, which is the onlyFund of the three that is currently operational, issupporting the Least Developed Countries to pre-pare National Adaptation Programmes of Action(NAPAs). This is accompanied by the formation ofthe Least Developed Countries Expert Group(LEG), which is emphasizing the focus on povertyreduction during adaptation planning.

In addition, knowledge generation and dissemina-tion related to climate impacts and vulnerabilityassessments are essential for making poverty reduc-tion strategies more effective by mainstreamingand integrating climate issues. The IPCC has playeda key role in reviewing and synthesizing informa-tion about climate change, its impacts, and poten-tial adaptation measures, with a view to informingthe UNFCCC negotiations. This knowledge needsto be made more accessible to decision makers,development agencies, and civil society in order toenable them to use it to inform their own work.

Finally, the implementation experience of thedevelopment agencies needs to be shared with theUNFCCC process with a view to informing the dia-log on opportunities available to integrate adapta-tion responses in sustainable development.Accordingly, the sharing of analytical tools andproject experience should be promoted and intera-gency collaboration should be enhanced.

3.4 Ensure Synergies with Other MultilateralEnvironmental Agreements

The Rio Conventions reflect the commitment ofthe international community to protect the globalenvironment, on the basis of common but differ-entiated responsibilities and respective capabilities.In this context OECD countries have a specialresponsibility for leadership on sustainable devel-opment worldwide, both historically and because

of the influence they exert on the global economyand environment. This responsibility includeshelping developing countries to pursue a sustain-able development path. In this context it is essen-tial that the linkages between poverty reductionand the global environment are recognized andaddressed through appropriate responses (OECD2002).

This implies that the UNFCCC, the UN Conven-tion on Biological Diversity (UNCBD), the UNConvention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD),and the international agreements on forests areassessed in their local impact on poverty and syn-ergies between conventions are utilized.

Many countries have already taken initiatives toidentify prioritized adaptation interventions. Inthis context, the Least Developed Countries arepreparing NAPAs in accordance with UNFCCCguidelines. In addition, prioritized adaptationinterventions have also been identified in NationalBiodiversity Conservation Plans (prepared inresponse to the Convention on Biological Diversi-ty), the National Action Plans (prepared in re-sponse to the Convention to Combat Desertifica-tion), and the National Environmental ActionPlans.

Currently, many environmental ministries arestretched by the need to service all these interna-tional processes, leaving little time for them toengage in domestic implementation and determin-ing national environmental priorities. This conflictcan be reduced by maximizing synergies in report-ing and other requirements for these internationalagreements. For a poor person it does not fromwhich convention the intervention comes. It is im-portant that these interventions improve welfareand are sustainable. Streamlining national respons-es to the various global environmental conventionswould also help to minimize the diversion ofscarce human resources from primary sustainabledevelopment activities.

Sustainable interventions that improve economicand social welfare can be ensured by addressingsynergies between conventions on the regional andlocal levels. Impacts of climate change can alsoaffect projects and objectives of the other Conven-tions. For example, changes in temperature andrainfall regimes are expected to impact on speciesdistribution and the goods and services provided

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by ecosystems. Conservation measures aiming atthe long-term protection of biodiversity andecosystems should take such changes into account.Integrating diverse initiatives will help to achieve astrong synergy between the goals of these globalenvironmental conventions and the sustainabledevelopment process.

3.5 External FundingMainstreaming climate issues in developmentplanning would help to ensure that adaptationmeasures are taken, where this proves to be neces-sary for achieving sustainable development. As aresult, the majority of financial resource needs foradaptation interventions could be part of, andchanneled through, national development bud-gets, with appropriate support from bilateral andmultilateral agencies and from non–official devel-opment aid sources. Within this context, all coun-tries would use their national processes (long-termdevelopment plans, poverty reduction strategy,national strategy for sustainable development, etc.)to identify and implement key priorities. Thiswould ensure the effectiveness of the interventionssince they would be matched by a medium-termexpenditure framework that would allocate re-sources (from national and external sources) tothese nationally determined adaptation priorities.It would also ensure that adaptation is addressed asa development issue, and not only as a one-dimen-sional environmental issue.

However, the development of capacity, as well asthe implementation of specific measures to copewith the adverse effects of climate change, will inmany cases require substantial external resources toreduce the vulnerability and increase the resilienceof those most at risk. While all demands for exter-nal financial support should result from nationalplanning processes in developing countries, thereare three ways to channel external support:● Through regular development assistance chan-

nels; this could be bilateral, multilateral,and/or non-governmental assistance includingpublic-private partnerships.

● Through the GEF in its role as the financialmechanism of the UNFCCC.

● Through the new Funds created by the UNFCCC.

It is crucial that external financial support is avail-able to developing countries as they integrate adap-tation in their own sustainable developmentefforts, especially in interventions for poverty

reduction. This external funding is required to sup-port: vulnerability assessments; identification, pri-oritization and preparation of adaptation interven-tions; and the mainstreaming and integration ofthese interventions in national and sectoral plan-ning and implementation, through the removal ofbarriers to the adoption of no-regrets interventions.These barriers could include information andknowledge gaps, weak human and institutionalcapacity, inappropriate policy context, and lack oftransactional experience in planning and imple-menting adaptation measures.

At the same time, external financial support wouldalso be required for implementing specific adapta-tion measures that address the increased vulnera-bility of poor people due to the adverse impacts ofclimate change. The nature and scope of supportfor these activities from the GEF and the new cli-mate change Funds would depend on the evolvingguidance from the UNFCCC.

Finally, it is essential to ensure the rapid availabili-ty of external funding for adaptation interventions.This is required to address the many cases in whichadequate information on vulnerability, and on itsreduction through adaptation measures in sustain-able development programs, is already available.There is the need to implement pilot projects as thepowerful learning-by-doing experience from theseinterventions would reinforce the next steps.

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1. Besides, the sea level and ice sheets would con-tinue to respond to warming for many centuriesafter greenhouse gas concentrations have beenstabilized. Climate Change 2001; Statement ofthe IPCC Chairman at CoP7.

2. Adaptation will, however, not prevent all dam-ages.

3. In the year 2000 the atmospheric concentrationof carbon dioxide (CO2) was about 370 parts permillion (ppm), which represents about a 30 per-cent increase when compared to pre-industriallevels (IPCC 2001a). A future stabilization levelof the CO2 concentration at, for example, 550ppm is likely to lead to lower damages than astabilization at a higher level, say 750 ppm,because the associated climatic changes are like-ly to exert less pressure on natural and humansystems. Over the next 250 years, the projectedtemperature increase, compared to the 1990global average, is expected to be 1.9 to 5.1 ºC forCO2 concentration stabilization at 550 ppm,and 2.8 to 7.0 ºC at 750 ppm (IPCC 2001a).These projected changes in temperature repre-sent global averages, with the increases beinghigher over most land areas and lower overocean surfaces.

4. Besides agriculture, infrastructure plays a crucialrole in improving economic conditions in devel-oping countries. According to World Bank esti-mates 1% increase in the stock of infrastructuretranslates to a 1% increase in GDP (UNDP2001).

5. The United Nations Framework Convention onClimate Change (UNFCCC) was adopted at the1992 Earth Summit in Rio. Its ultimate objectiveis the, ”stabilization of greenhouse gas concen-trations in the atmosphere at a level that will pre-vent dangerous anthropogenic interference withthe climate system. Such a level should beachieved within a timeframe sufficient to allowecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change,to ensure that food production is not threatenedand to enable economic development to proceedin a sustainable manner” (Article 2, UNFCCC).

The Conference of the Parties (CoP) is thesupreme decision making body of the UNFCCC.It is charged with promoting and reviewing theimplementation of the Convention. At the ThirdCoP in Kyoto, the Parties agreed on a politicalframework for emissions reduction (the KyotoProtocol, UNFCCC 1997), while Parties decidedon the implementation arrangements for theKyoto Protocol at the Seventh CoP in Marrakesh.The Marrakesh Accords (UNFCCC 2001), as wellas the UNFCCC Declaration at the subsequentEighth CoP in Delhi emphasized the need toaddress adaptation, along with mitigationefforts. The Global Environment Facility (GEF) isthe financial mechanism of the UNFCCC, and isprovided guidance by the CoP on activities eli-gible for support.

6. Methodologies to assess and manage climaterisks and highlight consideration of adaptationinterventions from a purely technical to ahuman development perspective are currentlyavailable. (Jones and Boer 2003; Jones andMearns 2003). The underlying approach empha-sizes that adaptation is a process (UNDP 2003a)and needs to be assessed with appropriate indi-cators under a proper monitoring and evalua-tion framework for effectiveness (Perez and Yohe2003).

7. UNFCCC Decision 5/CP7 and 6/CP7.

8. The Vulnerability and Adaptation ResourceGroup (VARG) is an informal network of bilat-eral and multilateral agencies that was formed topromote an open discussion of adaptationissues. The mission of VARG is to facilitate theintegration of climate change adaptationresponses in the development process throughthe sharing, assessment, synthesis, and dissemi-nation of existing knowledge and experience.The target audience are developing countries,the UNFCCC process, civil society, and develop-ment agencies. Participating agencies so far haveincluded: ADB, BMZ, CIDA, DFID, DGIS, EC,GEF, GTZ, OECD, UNDP, UNEP, USAID, USEPA,and the World Bank.

Notes

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Adaptation in natural or human systems is aresponse to actual or expected climate stimuli ortheir effects, which moderates harm or exploitsbeneficial opportunities. In this paper adapta-tion refers to all those responses to climatic con-ditions that may be used to reduce vulnerability.Adaptation is a very broad concept and can beused in a variety of ways. Adaptation to the(expected) negative impacts of climate changegenerally takes place in two ways: anticipatory(before impacts take place) and reactive (as aresponse to initial impacts). In natural systemsadaptation is reactive by definition. In humansystems adaptation can be both anticipatory andreactive and can be implemented by public andprivate actors. Private actors include individuals,households, communities, commercial compa-nies and other actors, such as NGOs. Publicactors include government bodies at all levels(Klein 2001; IPCC 2001b).

Adaptive capacity can be defined as the ability ofpeople and systems to adjust to climate change,for example, by individual or collective copingstrategies for the reduction and mitigation ofrisks or by changes in practices, processes orstructures of systems. Adaptive capacity cannotbe easily measured and is not well understood.But it is related to general levels of sustainabledevelopment such as political stability (civilconflict, functioning democracy), economicwell-being (GDP growth, incidence of poverty),human and social capital (literacy, life expectan-cy, level of local organization, micro-financeinstitutions) and climate specific aspects (suchas existing disaster prevention and mitigationsystems).

Climate can be viewed as average weather. It repre-sents the state of the climate system over a giventime period and is usually described by themeans and variation of variables such as tem-perature, precipitation, and wind, most com-monly associated with weather.

”Climate variability refers to variations in the meanstate and other statistics (such as standard devi-ations, the occurrence of extremes, etc.) of the

climate on all temporal and spatial scalesbeyond that of individual weather events. Vari-ability may be due to natural internal processeswithin the climate system (internal variability),or to variations in natural or anthropogenicexternal forcing (external variability)” (IPCC2001a; 2001b).

”Climate change refers to any change in climateover time, whether due to natural variability oras a result of human activity. This usage differsfrom that in the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (UNFCCC),which defines ”climate change” as: ‘change inclimate which is attributed directly or indirectlyto human activity that alters the composition ofthe global atmosphere and which is in additionto natural variability observed over comparabletime periods” (IPCC 2001a; 2001b).

Disaster is a serious disruption of the functioningof a community or a society causing widespreadhuman, material, economic or environmentallosses which exceed the ability of the affectedcommunity/society to cope using its ownresources (UN/ISDR 2002).

Disaster risk reduction represents the systematicdevelopment and application of policies, strate-gies, and practices to minimize vulnerabilitiesand disaster risks throughout a society, to avoidor to limit adverse impact of hazards, within thebroad context of sustainable development(UN/ISDR 2002).

Integration is used in this document when specificadaptation measures are added to design andimplementation strategies. Thus, integrationoccurs in instances where adaptation to climateimpacts is deemed to be a priority in order toeffectively achieve development goals.

Livelihood comprises the capabilities, assets(including both material and social resources),and activities required for a means of living. Alivelihood is sustainable when it can cope withand recover from stresses and shocks and main-tain or enhance its capabilities and assets both

Glossary

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now and in the future, while not underminingthe natural resource base (adapted from Cham-bers and Conway 1992).

Mainstreaming in this document is used to describethe consideration of climate issues in decisionmaking processes such as planning and budgeting.

Mitigation entails all human interventions thatreduce the sources or enhance the sinks of green-house gases (adapted from IPCC 2001a; 2001b).

Official development assistance is defined as thoseflows to countries on Part I of the DAC List ofAid Recipients [developing countries] and tomultilateral institutions for flows to Part I aidrecipients which are:i. provided by official agencies, including state

and local governments, or by their executiveagencies; and

ii. each transaction of which:a) is administered with the promotion of theeconomic development and welfare of devel-oping countries as its main objectiveb) is concessional in character and conveys agrant element of at least 25 percent (calculat-ed at a rate of discount of 10 per cent) (OECD2000).

”No regrets” policies and measures would generatenet social benefits whether or not there ishuman-induced climate change (adapted fromIPCC 2001b).

Poverty is now widely viewed as encompassingboth income and non-income dimensions ofdeprivation, including lack of income and othermaterial means; lack of access to basic social ser-vices such as education, health, and safe water;lack of personal security; and lack of empower-ment to participate in the political process andin decisions that influence someone’s life. Thedynamics of poverty also are better understood,and extreme vulnerability to external shocks isnow seen as one of its major features (UNDP1997).

Preparedness includes all activities and measurestaken in advance to ensure effective response tothe impact of disaster, including the issuance oftimely and effective early warnings and the tem-porary removal of people and property from athreatened location (UN/ISDR 2002).

Prevention includes all activities taken to outrightavoid the adverse impacts of hazards and relatedenvironmental, technological and biologicaldisasters (UN/ISDR 2002).

Resilience is the amount of change a system canundergo without changing state (IPCC 2001b).

Sink includes any process, activity, or mechanismthat removes a greenhouse gas, an aerosol, or aprecursor of a greenhouse gas or aerosol fromthe atmosphere (IPCC 2001a; 2001b).

Source includes any process, activity, or mechanismthat releases a greenhouse gas, an aerosol, or aprecursor of a greenhouse gas or aerosol into theatmosphere (IPCC 2001a; 2001b).

Sustainable development is defined as developmentthat meets the needs of the present withoutcompromising the capacity of future generationsto meet their own needs.

Vulnerability is a more dynamic concept than pov-erty, since it captures the sense that people movein and out of poverty. The meaning of vulnera-bility encompasses exposure to risk, hazards,shocks and stress, difficulty in coping with con-tingencies, and access to assets. In the context ofclimate change, vulnerability to climate changeis used in this report to mean the risk that cli-mate change will cause a decline in the well-being of poor people and poor countries. Thismeans the degree to which a system is suscepti-ble to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects ofclimate change, including climate variability andextremes. This vulnerability is a function of thecharacter, magnitude, and rate of climate varia-tion to which a system is exposed, and its adap-tive capacity.

39

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Part 2: Adaptation Lessons from Past Experience · 2016. 3. 29. · Part 2: Adaptation Lessons from Past Experience alternative strategy for the basin of irrigated agro-forestry would