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PART II: BET_EF installation. Install BET_EF. BET_EF requires the installation of the Installer 3.1 and the .NET framework (checked automatically and included in the installation package). Run BET_EF… and BET_UPGRADE. …ready to be run…. … and to browse the MANUAL. BET_EF and BET_UPGRADE. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
PART II: BET_EF installationPART II: BET_EF installation
PART II: BET_EF installationPART II: BET_EF installation
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
Install BET_EFInstall BET_EF
BET_EF requires the installation of the Installer 3.1 and the .NET framework (checked automatically and included in the installation package)
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
Run BET_EF… and BET_UPGRADERun BET_EF… and BET_UPGRADE
…ready to be run…
… and to browse the MANUAL
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
BET_EF and BET_UPGRADEBET_EF and BET_UPGRADE
BET_UPGRADE package
• upgrading and reviewing the ET settings• input of volcano information, past data and monitoring parameters • …
BET_EF package • it runs the Event Tree • Probabilities distribution• Probability maps• …
Load information
Update & review
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
BET_UPGRADE: Recover functionBET_UPGRADE: Recover function
BET_UPGRADE automatically saves all the previous loading processes (both complete or partial)… all of them can be “recovered” and upgraded
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
BET_UPGRADE: GoalBET_UPGRADE: Goal
In BET_UPGRADE, we input NODE BY NODE:
1. Volcanological information
2. Past data
3. Monitoring parameters
4. Past monitored episodes
5. Name, location, maps, etc. for the visualization of output probabilities (when necessary)
Non monitoring info
Monitoring info
Other info
Note that:
• each input helps, but is not necessary: if some information is not available, the epistemic uncertainty increases, but probability estimations are still possible
• Monitoring info are not present at all nodes
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
NODE 1NODE 1UNRESTUNREST
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
BET_UPGRADE: Node 1BET_UPGRADE: Node 1
Probability of UNREST in the next time window
Focus:
• Temporal information for all processes (definition of the forecasting window)
• Definition and detection of unrest episodes
Possible inputs:
1. Volcanological information
2. Past data
3. Monitoring parameters
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
Past data: Historical record of unrest episodes: Nu “successes” on N “measures”
- Length of the time windows - number of windows without unrest episodes (N, white blocks)- number of windows in which episodes start (Nu, red blocks)
NB windows containing ongoing unrest episodes (yellow blocks) are not counted
Node 1: Models and Past dataNode 1: Models and Past data
Volcanological information:
(best guess) and (confidence) from a model that forecasts the next unrest episode
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
Node 1: MonitoringNode 1: Monitoring
Monitoring parameters:
Number (main form) and definition of each one of them (monitoring form)
- Name, description
- Symbol & units
- lower and upper thresholds
- relationship
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
Node 1: Main formNode 1: Main form
Volcanological info Past data
Monitoring
… and the preview of the distribution can be visualized
Information is input ONLY WHEN AVALABLE
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
Node 1: Monitoring formsNode 1: Monitoring forms
Monitoring
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
NODE 2NODE 2MAGMA MAGMA
(movement of magma (movement of magma bodies)bodies)
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
BET_UPGRADE: Node 2BET_UPGRADE: Node 2
Probability of MAGMA given an unrest
Focus:
• Detection of magma
• Usually the less constrained process
• Monitoring parameters to track the presence of magma (during an ongoing unrest)
Input information:
1. Volcanological information
2. Past data
3. Monitoring parameters
4. Past monitored episodes
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
Node 2: Models and Past dataNode 2: Models and Past data
Past data: Historical record of magmatic unrest episodes: Nm and Nu
- Nu: number of unrest episodes (less or equal to node 1)- Nm: number of magmatic unrest episodes
Volcanological information:
(best guess) and (confidence) from a model that forecasts the occurrence of magmatic unrest among unrest episodes
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
Node 2: MonitoringNode 2: Monitoring
Monitoring parameters:
Number (main form) and definition of each one of them (monitoring form)
- Name, description
- Symbol & units
- lower and upper thresholds
- relationship
- weight
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
Node 2: Past monitored eventsNode 2: Past monitored events
Past monitored events:
1) Number of monitored past UNREST (in the main form)
2) outcome, i.e., magmatic or not (Yes/No)
3) measures during the unrest
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
Node 2: Main formNode 2: Main form
Volcanological info Past data
Monitoring
Past Mon.
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
Node 2: Monitoring and Past mon. formsNode 2: Monitoring and Past mon. forms
Monitoring Past Mon.
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
NODE 3NODE 3ERUPTIONERUPTION
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
BET_UPGRADE: Node 3BET_UPGRADE: Node 3
Probability of ERUPTION given a magmatic unrest
Focus:
• Forecasting of eruptions
• Monitoring parameters to recognize an incoming eruption (during an ongoing magmatic unrest)
Input information:
1. Volcanological information
2. Past data
3. Monitoring parameters
4. Past monitored episodes
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
Past data: Historical record of magmatic unrest episodes: Ne and Nm (or Nu)
- Ne: number of eruptions
- Nm: number of magmatic unrest episodes
in alternative…
- Nu: number of known unrest episodes
Node 3: Models and past dataNode 3: Models and past data
Volcanological information:
(best guess) and (confidence) from a model that forecasts the occurrence of eruptions among magmatic unrest episodes
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
Node 3: Monitoring and Past mon. episodesNode 3: Monitoring and Past mon. episodes
Past monitored events:
As in node 2, but only monitored magmatic unrest episodes
Monitoring:
As in node 2, with the goal of forecasting eruptions
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
Node 3: Main formNode 3: Main form
Volcanological info Past data
Monitoring
Past Mon.
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
Node 3: Monitoring formsNode 3: Monitoring forms
Monitoring Past Mon.
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
NODE 4NODE 4VENTVENT
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
BET_UPGRADE: Node 4BET_UPGRADE: Node 4
Probability of a SPECIFIC VENT for the incoming eruption
Focus:
• Spatial problem: number and geometry of possible locations are chosen by the user
• Localization of monitoring among the parameters at node 1,2 and 3
• Monitoring do not control completely the short-term probability
Input information:1. Volcanological information
2. Past data
3. Monitoring parameters… of nodes 1,2 & 3
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
Node 4: Spatial definitionNode 4: Spatial definition
UTM or degrees
Volcano coords
Visualization map
Volcano’s Geometry:
central or grid
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
Node 4: Spatial definitionNode 4: Spatial definition
UTM or degrees
Volcano coords
Visualization map
Volcano’s Geometry:
central or grid
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
Node 4: Models, Past data and MonitoringNode 4: Models, Past data and Monitoring
Monitoring:
All parameters defined at nodes 1, 2 and 3 may be localized to help spatially forecast the impending eruption… … there is not a specific list of monitoring parameters at node 4!!!
Past data: Historical eruption with known vent position: Ne (in the i-th location)
Volcanological information:
i (best guess) and i(confidence) for each vent location from a model that forecasts the position of the next vent
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
Node 4: Models and Past dataNode 4: Models and Past data
Volcanological info Past data
… or loaded from a file for all VENTS
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
NODE 5NODE 5SIZESIZE
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
BET_UPGRADE: Node 5BET_UPGRADE: Node 5
Probability of a SPECIFIC SIZE for the incoming eruption
Focus:
• Energetic/scenario approaches
• Number of size groups and their definition are not predefined, but are defined by the user
• Monitoring is not considered
Input information:1. Volcanological information
2. Past data
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
Node 5: Groups, Models and Past dataNode 5: Groups, Models and Past data
The number of groups and their definition must be defined by the user with a practical approach:
- link with models for outcomes (lava flows, tephra fall, pyroclastic flows, …)
- effusive / explosive / scenarios
- VEIs
- …
Past data: Historical eruption with known size/type
Volcanological information:
i (best guess) and i(confidence) for each size/type from a model that forecasts the size/type of the next eruption
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
Node 5: Groups, Models and Past dataNode 5: Groups, Models and Past data
number of groups
Volcanological info Past data
Eruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFEruption Forecasting through the Bayesian Event Tree: the software package BET_EFINGVINGV
BET_UPGRADE summaryBET_UPGRADE summary
FINISHED!!!!
BET_EPGRADE summarizes all of the input information…
…and sets all files to run BET_EF