Participation in MAP D-PHASE / COPS

Description of MAP D-PHASE project Implementation strategy Key relevant features of GEM v3.3.0 Overview of verification opportunities Generation of experimental products Prototyping / proof-of-concept for Vancouver

2010 Olympics project

MAP D-PHASE Project

WMO-designated forecast demonstration project for the Swiss/German Alps region

Main emphasis is on QPF and flood forecasting DOP: 1 June – 30 November

Canadian contribution: 1x daily high resolution (2.5km) 24h forecasts for the D-PHASE region

MAP D-PHASE Project

Both deterministic and low/high resolution ensembles will be run by various centers: Ensembles: MOGREPS (UKMet), INM Multi-

model (Spain), COSMO-LEPS (ECMWF), MICRO-PEPS (DWD)

Deteministic: GEM (Canada), MOLOCH (Italy), AROME (France), MM5 (Universities)

Numerous hydrological models will be run either coupled or in offline mode

MAP D-PHASE Project

The MAP D-PHASE integrations will also be used by other related projects: MICRO-PEPS: A German proposal to combine

high resolution (> 3km) results into an ensemble for the DOP

COPS: GEM will be one of the 5 high resolution models used for COPS mission planning – plots are delivered daily to the COPS operations centre

These collaborations will enhance verification efforts

MAP D-PHASE Project

Verification(COPS data and model intercomparison)

Prototype / Proof-of-Concept(Preparation for Vancouver 2010 Olympics)

Experimental Products(New strategies for high resolution NWP)

Implementation Plan

Key Features of GEM 3.3.0

“Hollow cube” initialization parallelizes nesting and improves delivery time by >1h for GEM-LAM2.5 grids – this feature is mandatory for timely delivery during MAP D-PHASE

Nested M-Y microphysics implements a state-of-the-art multicategory bulk parameterization

“Growing orography” reduces gravity wave generation during the initialization shock

M-Y Microphysics

K-Y overpredicts in the lee of the Cascade Mts.

M-Y produces improved precip distribution

Growing Orography

Standard Nesting Growing Orography

Reduced shock during high resolution mountain runs eliminates much vertical motion noise

cross-section along idealized ridge line

D-PHASE Test Period

SLP (magenta), 1000-500 thickness (orange) and 250 hPa wind speed (colour bar)

GFS analysis(18 h before initialization)

L

D-PHASE Test Period

SLP (magenta), 1000-500 thickness (orange) and 250 hPa wind speed (colour bar)

GFS analysis(initialization time)

L

D-PHASE Test Period

700 hPa Nondivergent wind (yellow) and streamfunction (orange)

GFS analysis(18h before initialization)

D-PHASE Test Period

700 hPa Nondivergent wind (yellow) and streamfunction (orange)

GFS analysis(initialization time)

D-PHASE Test Period

700 hPa potential temperature (coloured lines) and winds, and coupling index

GFS analysis(initialization time)

D-PHASE Test Period

Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May

D-PHASE Test Period

Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May

D-PHASE Test Period

Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May

D-PHASE Test Period

Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May

D-PHASE Test Period

Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May

D-PHASE Test Period

Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May

D-PHASE Test Period

Hourly precipitation accumulation – 15 May

D-PHASE Test Period

Radar Reflectivity – 15 May

D-PHASE Test Period

Eumetsat IR image for 1100 UTC 15

May

D-PHASE Test Period

6h precipitation accumulation – 15 May

Common critisism of GEM-LAM2.5 products is a lack of objective verification measures

D-PHASE / COPS provide a unique set of verification opportunities: COPS observations (10 aircraft, microphysical instrumentation)

European / German / Swiss observing network (over 800 evenly-distributed gauges)

Model intercomparison (12 high resolution models are being run at least once daily)

WG-VER is designing a subjective forecaster verification toolkit for use during D-PHASE

D-PHASE Verification

Fuzzy high resolution QPF verification:

QPF Feature identification and displacement calculation

Threshold-based structure / amplitude /location (SAL) score

Objective comparison with enhanced resolution (4 km) surface analyses

D-PHASE Verification

traditional scores are compared in a neighbour-hood instead of at a point

Sample Fuzzy-verified ETS from the Swiss Alpine Model (aLMo)

Leverages recent developments designed to improve performance in mountains

Investigates the utility of new guidance products (e.g. high resolution ensemble)

Provides a unique verification opportunity:

enhanced observations during DOP intercomparison / new verification techniques

D-PHASE SummaryThe MAP D-PHASE project will serve as an Olympics testbed for high resolution NWP: