Parties, Elections and Inequality What is the class / income
basis of parties See last week Why do pundits say rich (blue state)
voters are D & poor (red state) voters are R? Whats the matter
w/ Kansas? How can inequality increase if there are fewer rich
voters?
Slide 6
Income and Party ID 1952 1968 1980 1996 200020082012 Low income
64% 65% 60% 63% 62% 63% 60% % Democratic High income 30% 41% 32%
41% 36% 28% 34% % Democratic
Slide 7
Whats The Matter w/ Kansas? Argument: Individual level: Many
less affluent / working class voters support GOP & GOP policies
that make the rich richer Post materialist Organized labor less
relevant in Dem coalition Christian Conservatives more relevant in
GOP
Slide 8
Whats The Matter w/ Kansas? Argument (H&P p. 145-8): Sushi
loving, latte-sipping, tree-hugging, alt lifestyle costal
cosmopolitans vs NASCAR-loving, gun-toting, traditional values,
business owning rural / suburbanites
Slide 9
Whats the Matter w/ Kansas? Latte sipping liberals vs Joe the
Plumber
Slide 10
Red State vs. Blue State Rs win AL$29K MS$25K AR$26K UT$27K
SC$28K WV$26K KY$28K
Slide 11
Whats the Matter w/ the Argument? Do less affluent people elect
Republicans? Do rich people elect Democrats?
Slide 12
Whats the Matter w/ the Argument? Gelman Argument works at
state level, but not level of voters Aggregation problem Richer
states do support Democrats Over time, a weaker relationship
between income and voting in richest states so, wealthy and less
wealthy trending Dem
Slide 13
Whats the Matter w/ the Argument? Gelman Poorer states do
support GOP Wealthy voters in poor states now more GOP than 20
years ago Less affluent voters in poor states still solidly
Democratic more polarized than rich states
Slide 14
Relationship between income and Party vote Gelman et al p. 357
Slope strongest in poor, rural Republican red states (MS, AR, WV,
LA) Weakest in urban, rich, Dem states (CT, MA, NJ, NY, WA,
CO)
Slide 15
Whats the Matter.? Economic issues more relevant in poorer
states? (More class-based voting) Opposite of the Kansas story Why?
Race? Postmaterialism?
Slide 16
Elections, Parties and Inequality Politically, how does
inequality increase over time? Democratic theory The have nots will
tax those who have Far more middle class / working class than ubber
rich Equilibrium theory If inequality too great, easy for a
redistributionist majority party to form Limits to
redistribution
Slide 17
Elections, Parties and Inequality Politically, how does
inequality increase over time? Theory works in many affluent,
established democracies But since 1970s, income inequality rising
in US
Slide 18
Elections, Parties and Inequality
Slide 19
Slide 20
Why increasing inequality? 1 2 3 4
Slide 21
Why increasing inequality? 1) Demise of organized labor 2)
Changes in executive compensation 3) Changes in tax codes (income,
capital gains) 4) Changes in spending policy / transfers 5) Decline
in need for semi-skilled labor
Slide 22
Elections, Parties and Inequality Whats this got to do with
political parties and voters? Government policies affect income
distribution Voters reward / punish parties based on economic
performance (overall) But do they vote based on economic policies
that affect income distribution?
Slide 23
Elections, Parties and Inequality Whats this got to do with
political parties and voters? Government policies affect income
distribution What policies? Bush Tax cuts, capital gains tax cuts
(trillions of $) Health care law Payroll tax cut Unemployment
benefits Labor organizing laws Minimum wage laws
Slide 24
Elections, Parties and Inequality Whats this got to do with
political parties and voters? Do voters care about inequality
2002,Before Occupy: Most thought gap was larger, many though it a
bad thing
Slide 25
Elections, Parties and Inequality Whats this got to do with
political parties and voters? Do voters understand how policies
affect inequality 55% in 2000 said rich people would benefit most
from Bush Tax cuts But many voters indifferent about cuts (40%), or
didnt understand
Slide 26
Homer gets a Tax Cut (Bartles)
Slide 27
Voters and inequality They dont get it? (2002) People dont know
if they pay more in income tax or social security tax 42% dont know
if Americans pay more/less than W. Europeans 61% hadnt heard about
corporate tax cut 60% didnt know if cuts should expire in 2011
Slide 28
Voters and Inequality Can this be a large issue in the 2016
election Opportunity argument Voters aspire to be wealthy Support
policies that make rich richer because they want someday to be rich
Support these policies because they do not want to kill the goose
that lays golden eggs Philosophical support (Capitalism, freedom,
etc.)
Slide 29
Voters and Inequality In the 2012 / 14 election? Who trust
about nations economy? Obama44% GOP Congress40%
Slide 30
Voters and Inequality Increase taxes on higher income Americans
67% yes, 30% no (11/8/11) To lower the deficit, tax HHs of $1m, or
not tax them? 12/18/11 10/2/11 Tax increase 60% 64% No increase 35%
30%
Slide 31
Voters and Inequality Let Bush tax cuts expire on HHs over
$250K (11/17/11) 53% yes, 36% no 49% yes, 43% no (11/8/11) Too much
power in hands of a few rich people and large corporations? 77%
yes, 19% no
Slide 32
Voters and Inequality What happened? Sunset for end of 2010
Extended 2 years 2012 fiscal cliff made permanent for HHs making
under $450K; cut for those over Top rate up to 39.6% (from
35%)
Slide 33
Voters and Inequality If public attitudes as such, why has
inequality risen over past several decades?
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