Passive Protection:

A Failed Motorcycle Safety Paradigm

The Motorcycle Riders Foundation Meeting of the minds ‘08

Thomas”Doc Ski” Wasileski, PhD

1. Bikers are dying in greater numbers on America’s highways.

2. NHTSA’s push for stricter Helmet Laws is a false Panacea (Deadly Attitude)

3. Growing need to move away from the antiquated “passive-protection” safety Paradigm

Crisis in America

U.S. New Unit Motorcycle Sales

1992 - 278,000 1999 - 546,0001993 - 293,000 2000 - 710,0001994 - 306,000 2001 - 850,0001995 - 309,000 2002 - 936,0001996 - 330,000 2003 - 1,001,0001997 - 356,000 2004 - 1,063,0001998 - 432,000 2005 - 1,116,000

Motorcycles Sales Increasing

MC Aftermarket Industry = $XXX Annually

Problem Resolution (NHTSA style)

• Problem:– Motorcycle Fatalities continue to rise– Passive Protection not working for MC– Thirty Five years of “Survive-the-Crash- Mentality”– Bureacratic Survival Threat

• Solution:– Exaggerate The Issue– Protect the System-Blame the Victim

• Won’t use our helmet• Alcohol• Speed• Cultural problem

- Remove threat from the Mix- Regulate to reduce population

MotorcyclesA Valuable Resource in America’s

Transportation Network

• 1. Reduce Congestion

• 2. Contribute to the Economy

• 3. Reduce Fuel Consumption

• 4. Reduce Highway Wear

• 5. Recreational $ Resource

Antiquated and Obsolete Passive Protection Paradigm

• Hurt Studies : 1976-1981– Traffic conditions

• Roadways• Opposing Vehicle Geometry• Motorcycle Design• Congestion & Speed Limits

– Rider & Driver Characteristics • Age• Distractions• Personality Attributes

A New Motorcycle Safety Paradigm

• NHTSA’s Data Analysis and Reporting• Independent Research With NHTSA Data• Insurance Institute For Highway Safety• NTSB Chairman• Federal Funding Indications• A Model to Consider• Crash Research• Awareness Programs and Evaluation• Education Programs and Evaluation

Motorcycle Troubleshooting Process

1. Identification of relevant variables, and how they interact. (fuel, spark, compression)

2. Forming a hypothesis. (Is it a fuel problem? -electrical? – compression?).

3. Collection of specific data through a systematic process. (inspect fuel -electrical -compression).

4. Analysis of the data collected. (electric = no spark at plug – shocked by end of wire).

5. Forming conclusions according to the analysis (bad plug).6. Applying the conclusions and evaluating the results

(replace plug - engine works).7. Sitting in the bar later, bragging to all about fixing your ride

on the road.

Troubleshooting MC Safety

1. Identification of relevant variables – Crash Causation Study

2. Forming a hypothesis - Will a Motorist Awareness campaign reduce MC fatalities?

3. Implement study - collect data through a systematic process. (Radio (or) Billboard Campaign).

4. Analysis of the data collected. (compare pre/post-fatality rates).

5. Forming conclusions according to the analysis (significant reduction or not).

6. Applying the conclusions and evaluating the results (statewide program).

7. Dissemination and replication of the program.

Scientific Principles

• Valid and Reliable Variables• Hypothesis Testing Process• Appropriate use of Categorical Data• Appropriate Conclusions for Data Analysis• Replication Studies

NHTSA’s Analysis

• Inappropriate Data Collection• Data Mining• Sensationalistic Reporting• Guess-timations

VMT• Low priority placed on collecting accurate MC travel

data.• Reporting motorcycle data was optional and several

States chose not to code it. • Since motorcycles are much less common than other

types of vehicle travel, a proportionately larger effect would be needed to detect the same percent change.

• The limited motorcycle travel data affects the credibility and accuracy of analyses and hampers the ability to produce precise motorcycle statistics.

• Traffic Sensors don’t register motorcycles consistently.• Motorcycles have different usage patterns during the

week and different seasonal patterns.

TRB Traffic Monitoring Data: VMT Concerns Collection and Analysis Conference

Mid-Atlantic States

02 May 2007

1. Motorcycles are a small, lightweight vehicle that can be difficult todetect with some sensors. 2. Coverage counts are typically collected year round due to the size ofprograms and number of counts required. Motorcycle traffic can be veryseasonal and VMT estimates would be affected by the month counts were collected. 3. Coverage counts are typically collected Monday through Thursday.Motorcycle traffic can be highly recreational–weekend influenced, againimpacting on the VMT estimate.

Summary of TRB Concerns…

• Because of the issues related to collecting the data and the comparatively low percentage of VMT for motorcycles as a vehicle class…

• a subtle collection program change could result in a significant, but misleading percentage change for motorcycle VMT.

Insurance Institute For Highway Safety

1. "....we believe the current and historical license and registration data  are not reliable measures of driver and vehicle exposure." 

2. "The use  of these data may lead to erroneous conclusions…."

3. “….large discrepancies between FHWA and state-reported data  on motorcycle registrations…”

4. “Therefore, we have suspended use of these  data until we can be assured of their accuracy."

Fatalities @ Registrations

• BAC• Age• Speeding• Helmet Use• Type of Crash• Engine Size• Single Vehicle

Accidents

Crashes Kill BikersCrash Prevention Saves

Lives

Moon, NCOM 2005

Fatality Comparison

• Traffic Safety Facts (NHTSA) 2005

• Highway Statistics 2005 (FHWA)

• Fatalities per 10,000 Registrations– Universal Mandatory Helmet Law - .075– Modified or no Helmet Law - .07

NTSB Recommendations

• FHWA – Fixing MC data collection issues– VMT Conference

• NHTSA – Re-prioritizing NAMS– -NAMS Implementation Guide

• 50 States – Throw another Helmet at MC Safety

• Mark Rosenker (Chair NTSB)

• …we have reached practical limits in Crash-mitigation

…we are entering a new era of Crash Prevention…

• ----------------------------------------------------

The New Silver Bullet!

• "Ultimately, almost all the factors that contribute to the problem can be reduced by new legislation, enforcement of existing laws - and mandated education. “

– James Champagne: Executive Director, Louisiana Highway Safety Commission

Possible Legislative Responses

• Mandatory Rider Education/Re-Education

• Graduated Licensing– Engine Size– Experience

• Stricter Protective Equipment Mandates

• Vehicle Design Mandates– Intelligent Transportation Systems

• Restricted Access for Motorcycles

Forming Partnerships Against Federalism

• 1. Strengthen Existing Political relations

• 2. Infiltrate Bureaucratic Agencies

• 3. Involve MC Dealers’ Organizations

• 4. Collaborate w/ National Conference of State Legislatures

• 5. Rigorous Research into Effectiveness of Alternative Interventions

SAFETEA-LU (PL 109-59 Section 20)

• $25 Million to Individual Qualifying States:– $100,000 annually – 4 year program

• Crash Study– $3 million to pay for a study of motorcycle

crashes. – funding will go to the Oklahoma Transp

Center; Oklahoma State University.

Education Division

Awareness Division

Motorist AwarenessCampaign

Rider Safety Awareness Campaign

Rider Education Awareness Campaign

HS Driver EducationProgram

Accident Scene Reporting Protocol

Motorcyclist Education Program

Classroom Instructional Module

Rider MentoringProgram

Individualized Mastery Learning Module

Research Center for Motorcycle Safety and Crash Prevention

Crash Research Center

Research Design

Data Collection

Data Analysis

Dissemination

Fig 1: An example of the structure of the Center using issues from the current research and safety literature.

• Motorcycle Safety Research Center– Research Design and Priorities– Data Collection and Analysis– Information Clearing House– Dissemination Center

• Rider: Rider Education Programs: BRC & ERC• Driver: HS MC Safety and Awareness Program• Public: Motorcycle Awareness Campaign• MC Culture Campaigns: Speed/Booze

Evaluation Methods

• Quantitative– Crash Studies and critical variables – Appropriate Statistical analysis

• Qualitative– Crash Involved Rider Interviews– Crash Prevention Rider Forums– Successful Crash Avoidance strategies

• Product– Education and Awareness Program Evaluations

Education Division

Awareness Division

Motorist AwarenessCampaign

Rider Safety Awareness Campaign

Rider Education Awareness Campaign

HS Driver EducationProgram

Accident Scene Reporting Protocol

Motorcyclist Education Program

Classroom Instructional Module

Rider MentoringProgram

Individualized Mastery Learning Module

Research Center for Motorcycle Safety and Crash Prevention

Crash Research Center

Research Design

Data Collection

Data Analysis

Dissemination

Fig 1: An example of the structure of the Center using issues from the current research and safety literature.