Pattern Trader - January - 2016 - Trade Analysis, Trade Set-ups and Profit (Loss)

Pair: XAUUSD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1082.50 Stop loss: 1074.00 Take profit: 1109.00 Analysis: XAUUSD has been in a long-term downtrend. However, in recent weeks this pair has not been

able to make any progress on the downside.

The short-term Double-Bottom price pattern formed in December could provide the foundation for a

(counter) move to the upside. Penetration above today's inside-day bar should provide a further catalyst

for prices to catapult higher from here.

Currency Pair: GBPAUD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 2.0538 Stop loss: 2.0490 Take profit: 2.0687 Analysis: GBPAUD has been traversing lower in a stair-step fashion.

It is currently trading at the lower end of the trading band. I feel if prices break above the high of today's

inside-day bar, GBPAUD could provide a good short-term trade to the upside.

Currency Pair: EURUSD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1.0800 Stop loss: 1.0761 Take profit: 1.0887 Analysis: While I am a long-term bear on EURUSD it feels like this pair could trade in within a broad

range - with support at or near the low today's reversal bar.

Accordingly, I think there is an opportunity for some "movement" to the upside from here.

Currency Pair: EURGBP Entry Order: BUY stop @ 0.7380 Stop loss: 0.7347 Take profit: 0.7457 Analysis: EURGBP appears to have formed a Double Bottom price pattern on the Weekly chart at the

0.7000 price level.

Over the past few weeks, EURGBP has formed at tight congestion range between 0.7300 and 0.7400 on

the Daily Chart. I believe a break above today's high could be a catalyst for (multi-week) new high's in

this pair.

Currency Pair: CHFJPY Entry Order: BUY stop @ 118.15 Stop loss: 117.45 Take profit: 119.87 Analysis: This pair is in a definitive down-trend. However, today's outsize Key reversal bar feels like a

"stake in the ground", and I think, in the short-term, prices will reverse and head higher from here.

This pair may need to do additional "work" at or near current prices before heading higher, so be

prepared to give it some room. Keep your lot size small.

Currency Pair: NZDCAD Entry Order: SELL stop @ 0.9315 Stop loss: 0.9369 Take profit: 0.9197 Analysis: It appears like the bull run in this pair has been exhausted (for now).

I think if we penetrate below today's Key Reversal bar, prices could be headed south very quickly.

Currency Pair: USDCHF Entry Order: SELL stop @ 0.9931 Stop loss: 0.9985 Take profit: 0.9809 Analysis: USDCHF appears to have formed a resistance at current prices. I feel if we take out the low of

Fridays inside-bar, it would open the possibility of lower prices in the immediate time-frame.

Currency Pair: GBPCAD Entry Order: SELL stop @ 2.0478 Stop loss: 2.0539 Take profit: 2.0187 Analysis: GBPCAD has formed a well-defined Double-top (bear) price pattern at the 2.1000 price level.

I firmly believe, if we take out the low of Fridays inside-bar, it would open the possibility of

(dramatically) lower prices in the immediate time-frame. I REALLY like this trade.

Currency Pair: EURUSD Entry Order: SELL stop @ 1.0846 Stop loss: 1.0881 Take profit: 1.0757 Analysis: EURUSD has been bouncing around in a trading range between 1.1000 and 1.0700. Today's key

reversal suggests a price trajectory into the 1.0700 price area.

Currency Pair: AUDCHF Entry Order: BUY stop @ 0.7033 Stop loss: 0.6995 Take profit: 0.7187 Analysis: This pair is in a long-term trading range. Yesterday's outsized Key Reversal bar suggests there is

near-term support. I believe penetration above the high today's price range will lead to higher prices.

Currency Pair: EURJPY Entry Order: SELL stop @ 127.44 Stop loss: 127.87 Take profit: 126.27

Analysis: This pair has formed a well-defined Head-and-Shoulders long-term top on the Monthly chart

time-frame, with the neckline at or near the 126.00 price area.

I believe penetration below the low price of today's inside-bar on the Daily chart (above), will pave the

way to (much) lower prices.

I believe most of the yen cross pairs are headed a lot lower (see my video analysis of NZDJPY in the link

above).

Currency Pair: AUDCAD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 0.9957 Stop loss: 0.9911 Take profit: 1.0087 Analysis: Today's massive Key Reversal in the direction of the prevailing trend, suggests a resumption in

the upward surge in this pair.

Pair: XAUUSD Entry Order: SELL stop @ 1092 Stop loss: 1102 Take profit: 1076 Analysis: Last week I took out a nice chunk (265 pips) long this pair based on a short-term Double-

bottom price pattern. However, it now feels like XAUUSD is running out of steam on the upside.

I feel if we take out the low of today's inside-bar, this market could roll-over in the direction of the

prevailing (down) trend.

Currency Pair: GBPCAD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 2.0758 Stop loss: 2.0697 Take profit: 2.0887 Analysis: GBPCAD is presently consolidating at the apex of a three-year bull run.

I believe that if prices penetrate above the high of today's inside-bar, we could (very quickly) push

through to the resistance level at about the 2.0950 price level.

Currency Pair: EURAUD Entry Order: SELL stop @ 1.5516 Stop loss: 1.5591 Take profit: 1.5309 Analysis: A few months ago, EURAUD broke out of a descending wedge (bear) price pattern.

In recent weeks we have seen prices rally back to the break-out area. However, in two of the past three

trading sessions we have seen prices turned back in a big way (Key Reversal(s).

Should we penetrate today's session low price, I think this could pave the way back to the 1.5000 price

level (or lower).

Currency Pair: GBPNZD Entry Order: SELL stop @ 2.2021 Stop loss: 2.2071 Take profit: 2.1809 Analysis: Since peaking last August, GBPNZD has ben "channeling" south in a stair-step fashion.

Friday's Key Reversal, at the apex of a Reverse Wedge Triangle, suggests this pair could be ready to bust

open to new (Daily and Weekly) lows on the down-side.

Currency Pair: AUDCAD Entry Order: SELL stop @ 0.9911 Stop loss: 0.9979 Take profit: 0.9787 Analysis: On the heels of a very weak CAD$, this pair has been trendy higher over the past two months.

However, in Friday's trading session, after a brief attempt at thrusting higher, AUDCAD hit a pocket of

resistance, and turned tail in the other direction, in a big way.

Fridays resistance level was at or near a peak resistance area a few weeks ago. If this turns out to be a

material resistance area (Double-Top), prices could be heading dramatically south..in a hurry.

Currency Pair: NZDCAD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 0.9406 Stop loss: 0.9357 Take profit: 0.9527 Analysis: NZDCAD is in a primary uptrend. Penetration above today's inside bar should propel this pair

to the old highs (very quickly).

Pair: XAUUSD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1095.00 Stop loss: 1087.00 Take profit: 1118.00 Analysis: XAUUSD has formed a short-term Double-Bottom support. Penetration above today's inside

bar could mean more momentum on the upside.

Currency Pair: NZDCAD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 0.9457 Stop loss: 0.9403 Take profit: 0.9557 Analysis: This is the same signal as last night. NZDCAD is in a primary uptrend.

Even though we got stopped out, I think penetration above today's "outside" Key Reversal bar (it took

out the low-and-the-high of the previous session), should propel this pair to the old highs (very quickly).

Pair: XAUUSD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1096.00 Stop loss: 1087.00 Take profit: 1118.00 Analysis: Sorry for sending this trade out late...but I decided it had enough "good stuff" going on that

merited a signal after all.

XAUUSD has formed a short-term Double-Bottom and a (propective) "Cup-and-Handle" price pattern.

I believe, penetration above the past two trading sessions inside bar(s) could lead to a (quick) price jump

on the upside.

Currency Pair: USDCHF Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1.0058 Stop loss: 1.0011 Take profit: 1.0187 Analysis: USDCHF is coiling within an Ascending Symmetrical Triangle price pattern. I believe, if we

penetrate above today's Key Reversal session high price, that it will open a "pathway" to (much) higher

prices...in the near-term.

Currency Pair: GBPNZD Entry Order: SELL stop @ 2.20030 Stop loss: 2.21030 Take profit: 2.17090 Analysis: GBPNZD has established a broad down-trend. Today's Key Reversal (in conjunction with

another major Key Reversal three trading sessions ago), suggests this pair is primed to continue in the

primary direction of the trend (down).

Currency Pair: EURJPY Entry Order 1: BUY stop @ 128.20 Stop loss: 127.67 Take profit: 130.11 Entry Order 2: BUY limit @ 127.27 Stop loss: 126.87 Take profit: 129.27 Analysis: Today's major Key Reversal at (or near) a recent price low Double-Bottom), suggests that the

recent collapse in this pair has been arrested, and we could see a snap-back all the way to the primary

"channel" down-trend line.

The "double-entry" order is a departure from my normal format. I feel reasonably confident today's key

reversal low won't be taken out in short-order, so buying the dip on this one may be a good (great) idea.

Risk Management: You can take one, or both, entry orders. I am taking both with a 0.5% risk on each

Entry order.

Currency Pair: AUDUSD Entry Order: SELL stop @ 0.6985 Stop loss: 0.7034 Take profit: 0.6827 Analysis: AUDUSD is in a long-term down-trend. I believe last week's rally was just a "dead-cat" bounce

in a bear market.

Friday's Key Reversal bar at an important resistant area, suggests this pair will resume in its primary

direction (down).

Currency Pair: NZDUSD Entry Order: SELL stop @ 0.6462 Stop loss: 0.6521 Take profit: 0.6317 Analysis: My analysis for NZDUSD is basically the same as for AUDUSD. NZDUSD is in a long-term down-

trend. I believe last week's rally was just a "dead-cat" bounce in a bear market.

Friday's inside-day bar at an important resistant area, suggests this pair will resume in its primary

direction (down). This feels like a REALLY good trade.

Risk Management: AUDUSD & NZDUSD are closely correlated. If I had to choose one pair vs. the other, I

would short AUDUSD. I am taking both trades with 0.5% risk on each position.

Currency Pair: AUDCAD Entry Order: SELL limit @ 0.9911 Stop loss: 0.9971 Take profit: 0.9709 Analysis: In last week's trading, the Canadian-$ reversed its three-month down-trend in a BIG way.

Therefore, I feel the CAD$ will start to strengthen against most currency pairs.

I feel the AUD$ is the most vulnerable to my anticipated sell-off vs this pair. As opposed to my usual

trade signal (pending order), I want to see if we can Short (limit order) this pair on a brief rally.

Currency Pair: NZDJPY Entry Order: SELL stop @ 76.27 Stop loss: 76.69 Take profit: 74.57 Analysis: I believe the three-year down-trend in the J-yen is over, and that the JPY will go higher over

the next few weeks (or months).

I think the NZDJPY is one of the vulnerable pairs for a sell-off vs. the yen. Today's Key Reversal suggests

the last few week's slide will continue to pick up steam.

Currency Pair: AUDJPY Entry Order 1: BUY stop @ 83.35 Stop loss: 82.67 Take profit: 85.87 Entry Order 2: BUY limit @ 82.79 Stop loss: 82.35 Take profit: 85.87 Analysis: In the video link above I explain why I think the chief beneficiary of an upcoming decline in the

US dollar will be the Aussie Dollar. I also think the J-yen looks like it could go weaker from current levels.

The combination of these two powerful "forces" should push AUDJPY higher.

I want to buy this pair on a dip and if I miss buying it lower I want to catch this pair (on a pending order)

if market momentum confirms my analysis. (I am placing BOTH orders with 0.5% risk on each order).

Currency Pair: AUDUSD Entry Order 1: BUY stop @ 0.7042 Stop loss: 0.6977 Take profit: 0.7257 Entry Order 2: BUY limit @ 0.6995 Stop loss: 0.6957 Take profit: 0.7257 Analysis: As with AUDJPY, in the video link above I explain why I think the chief beneficiary of an

upcoming decline in the US dollar will be the Aussie Dollar.

I want to buy this pair on a dip and if I miss buying it lower I want to catch this pair (on a pending order)

if market momentum confirms my analysis. (I am placing BOTH orders with 0.5% risk on each order).

Currency Pair: GBPJPY Entry Order: BUY stop @ 170.27 Stop loss: 169.59 Take profit: 172.09 Analysis: I think the GBP has put in a temporary bottom vs US dollar. I also think the J-yen looks like it

could go weaker from current levels. The combination of these two powerful "forces" should push

GBPJPY higher.

Currency Pair: NZDJPY Entry Order: SELL stop @ 76.02 Stop loss: 76.59 Take profit: 74.09 Analysis: Today's Key Reversal bar at or near the price point resistance of two other key reversal bars,

suggests overhead resistance at current levels.

Penetration below the low of today's Key Reversal bar could open up (much) lower prices to come.

Currency Pair: GBPJPY Entry Order: SELL stop @ 168.53 Stop loss: 169.11 Take profit: 166.57 Analysis: GBPJPY is in a well-established down-trend. Today's inside-day bar at recent highs, suggests

the recent bounce may have run its course. I feel a retracement to last week's lows (around the 165.00

price level) is imminent.

Currency Pair: EURCAD Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1.5422 Stop loss: 1.5362 Take profit: 1.5687 Analysis: This week EURCAD had a massive retracement from the primary up-trend that has been in place for some time. It appears that this pair has grabbed support at current levels. I think it is worth probing the buy side in this pair as I believe a re-test of the former high's are inevitable.

Pair: XAUUSD (Spot Gold) Entry Order: BUY stop @ 1119.00 Stop loss: 1109.00 Take profit: 1148.00 Analysis: XAUUSD has formed a Double-bottom (buy) price pattern. After a successful re-test of the neckline, this pair has continued to strengthen. Friday's Key Reversal bar suggest that momentum will continue to the upside. Due to all the (technical price pattern) virtues of this pair, I am inclined to increase my risk on this trade. I REALLY like the chart and trade.

Pattern Trader - January 2016 - Trade-by-Trade Profit (Loss)