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Paul English, PhD MPH
Population Vulnerabilities for Climate Change Health Risks
Paul English PhD, MPH
Vulnerability
Vulnerability to climate change is “the degree to which geophysical, biological and socio-economic systems are susceptible to, and unable to cope with, adverse impacts of climate change.” (Füssel and Klein, 2006)
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Community’s overall vulnerability• Exposure: Changing environment due
to global warming
• Population characteristics/Sensitivity (e.g. age, pre-existing disease)
• Adaptive capacity :– Community Resilience (Resources)
– Response Capacity: Capacity of public health and emergency response infrastructure
Population Sensitivity Varies by Climate Health Threat
Heat:– Elderly, Medical compromised, Social Isolation, Children,
low income, occupational
Flooding/Extreme events: – Elderly, low-income, homeless, disabled, lack of
transportation, obese, co-morbid
Drought:– dialysis patients, elderly, pregnant and nursing women,
infants, immunocompromised individuals
Vulnerability Assessment in BRACE• Statewide vulnerability data will be used to develop
vulnerability indicators and maps for all census tracts in California
• A more detailed vulnerability assessment will be done in at least one county from each of the ten multi-county regions.
• Assessments will use 2000 as a baseline and we will make estimates for each decade up to 2040 and a final statewide assessment at 2099.
• For each assessment, we will use projected demographic data and projected climate change data (sea level rise, wildfire risk, and extreme heat days).
Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment*
• Data were ranked by quintiles and mapped for census tracts; Final vulnerability score a sum & re-ranking across all metric ranks
* English et al, Intl J Climate Change, 2013
Metric Source
Central air conditioning CA Energy Commission (2009)
Tree canopy National Land Cover Database (2001)
Impervious surface National Land Cover Database (2001)
Public transit routes SCAG 2011; Fresno COG 2011
Elderly living alone Census 2000
Household car access Census 2000
Wildfire risk CAL FIRE 2003
Flood risk FEMA (Fresno 2009; LA 2008)
Sea rise inundation Pacific Institute 2009 (LA only)
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LA County Climate Change Vulnerability
Proportion of households with central AC
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LA County Climate Change Vulnerability
Final CDPH Climate Scores
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LA County (including residential & sensitive populations land use mask)
Final CDPH Climate Scores
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Final CDPH Climate Scores + Cumulative Impacts ScoreLA County (including residential & sensitive populations land use mask)
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46% of African Americans and 36% of Latinos reside in the two highest risk categories
compared to 30% of whites
Los Angeles County
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In LA County, median income in the highest risk area is 40% lower than the lowest risk area
Questions• What LHD staff & programs / policy
leaders/ partners/ stakeholders will you share this with; and how and in what context or venue will you present it; get feedback; and adapt and update it as new information is available?
• Will you engage vulnerable populations directly or work with partners for community -based input on the maps and report?
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