Upload
others
View
5
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
PaulNexUniversityoftheWitwatersrand
Nex2019
WhatareCri*cal/Strategic(Green/Electronic)Metals/Materials
Seriousanswer:“Criticalmetalsaremetalswhoseavailabilityisessentialforhigh-technology,greenanddefenceapplications,butvulnerabletopoliticallyoreconomicallydrivenfluctuationsinsupply.Textinredwouldnothavebeeninearlierdefinitions:Anydefinitiondependsonthecountryyouarein,thetechnology/industryyouareinterestedin,yourperceivedriskoffuturesupply,andperceiveddemand.ALLofthesearesubjecttochange.(Nex,2015)Cynicalanswer:Anymetalormaterialthatcanbesodeclaredtoenhancethe‘spin’producedbyajuniorexplorationcompanyORtoincreasethechancesofobtainingresearchfundingintheacademicenvironmentORtoenableproducingcompaniestoincreasepricesORtojustifyin-depthstudiesbygovernmentdepartments.
Gunn2013
Nex2019
CRITICALRAWMATERIALS
Cri*cal/StrategicMetals/Materials� Thereisnothingnewinthisconcept:
� ItishighlylikelythattheRoman’sinvadedBritaintoobtaintin(55BC.)
� Inthe2ndWW,tungstenwasacritical/strategicmetal(formunitions)andPanasqueria(Portugal)wasthemainproducerforbothsidesoftheconflict.
� The1983theUSCongressproducedapaperon“StrategicandCriticalNonfuelMinerals:ProblemsandPolicyAlternatives”.Thiswaslargelyinresponsetothe“oilcrisis”of1973whenOAPECproclaimedanoilembargo–thishighlightedadependencyonrawmaterials.
Nex2019
In2010anEUreportidentified14criticalmaterials(REE,PGM,Nb,Ge,Mg,Ga,Sb,In,W,F,Be,Co,Ta,Graphite)outof41whichweredefinedascriticalbasedoneconomicimportanceandsupplyrisk
EU2010Report
Thegraphthatstarteditall
Nex2019
In2011antimony(Sb),rhenium(Re)andgermanium(Ge)wereidentifiedasthethreemostcriticalmetalsforGermanindustrybyIZTundertakingresearchforBGRandDERA.REEPt,Ga,W,Ag,Sn,In,Nb,CrandBiwereinthesecondgrouping
IZT2011Report
Nex2019
Antimony Sb 8.5 China PGE 8.5 South Africa Mercury 8.5 China Tungsten 8.5 China REE 8.0 China Niobium 8.0 Brazil Strontium 7.5 China Bismuth 7.0 China Thorium 7.0 India Bromine 7.0 USA Carbon(graphite) 7.0 China Rhenium 6.5 Chile Iodine 6.5 Chile Indium 6.5 China Germanium 6.5 China
2011BGSRiskListREE 9.5 China Tungsten 9.5 China Antimony 9.0 China Bismuth 8.6 China Molybdenum 8.6 China Strontium 8.6 China Mercury 8.1 China Barium 8.1 China Carbon(graphite) 7.6 China Beryllium 7.6 USA Germanium 7.6 China Niobium 7.6 Brazil PGE 7.6 South Africa Cobalt 7.6 DRC Thorium 7.6 India
2012BGSRiskList
Ooops–(where’sthelithium?)
Nex2019
REE 9.5 China Tungsten 9.5 China Antimony 9.0 China Bismuth 8.6 China Molybdenum 8.6 China Strontium 8.6 China Mercury 8.1 China Barium 8.1 China Carbon(graphite) 7.6 China Beryllium 7.6 USA Germanium 7.6 China Niobium 7.6 Brazil PGE 7.6 South Africa Cobalt 7.6 DRC Thorium 7.6 India
2012BGSRiskList 2015BGSRiskList
REE 9.5 China Sb 9.0 China Bi 8.8 China Ge 8.6 China V 8.6 China Ga 8.6 China Sr 8.3 China W 8.1 China Mo 8.1 China Co 8.1 USA In 8.1 China As 7.9 Brazil Mg 7.6 South Africa PGE 7.6 DRC Li 7.6 India Ba 7.6 Graphite 7.4
Nex2019
In2013,aEUreviewoftheoriginal14criticalmetalswasundertakenand20criticalmaterialswereidentifiedoutof54.(Additionalmetals:REE’ssplitintoLights&Heavy's,Borates,Chromium,CokingCoal,Magnesite,PhosphateRock,SiliconMetal,GraphitechangedtoNaturalGraphite).NotethatwiththeexceptionofHREEthesupplyriskhasdecreasedformostofthecommoditiesfromthe2010study.“Theworldcontainstheenergyandmineralresourcesneededtosustain10.5billion(theleveltheworldpopulationisexpectedtoreachin2100)ataEuropeanstandardoflivingforhundredsofcenturies.”Cathles,2015.”–(Mostofitisactuallyinseawater)
Nex2019
In2017anewEUlistwithevenmorecommodities,9morethanthe2014list–sooneverythingwillbecritical!!(Sorry,Cynicalert)NBLithiumisstillNOTregardedascritical
Nex2019
Whatisthe“HypeCycle”DevelopedbyFenn(1995)workingfortheGartnerGrouptodescribetheperformanceofemergingtechnologies.Somewhat“Zen-like”interminologyNotreallyacycleanddoesn’tpredictwhathappenstotheemergingtechnology–thereisonlyoneoutcome.Possiblybetterenvisagedasafeedbackloopratherthanacycle.
Nex2019
Timescaleswillvary
Nex2019
Hypecycleappliedtocommodi*es:cmdtyandshareprices,scien*ficcita*onsreflectthesametrends.
Welmer&Dalheimer2012MinDep(RawMaterials)Nex2019
Tantalum
Greenbushes(Australia)
Obtainedtypicallyfromtantalite;rare-metalpegmatites(LCT),someproductionfrompyrochloreincarbonatites,co-productionfromtindepositsuntilthetincrisisoftheearly1980’s.Principleuseinelectroniccapacitors;cellphones,harddrives,hearingaids,pacemakers.Productionandpricenottransparent–individualcontractsbetweenproducersandprocessors,Publishedstatisticsfrequentlycombinedwithniobium.Untilmid-2000’sproductiondominatedbyTANCO(Canada)andWodgina/Greenbushes(SonsofGwalia,Australia) Nex2019
2004SonsofGwaliabankrupt
1998-2000cellphones
3hypecycles?
ElectronicsIndustry,Panicbuying,Stockpiling(Cunningham1998)
Stockpilesdepleted,increaseddemand
ProductionDataUSGS2017 Pricedata:metalary.com(1999-present)andUSGS1999(pre-1998)
2006-2015volatility
Nex2019
AccordingtoRoskill(2016)intheearly2000’s“rapidlygrowingdemandfortantalumwasbasedonthewhollyunfoundedbeliefthatatantalumshortagewasimminent.”Demanddecreased,noshortage,pricestumbled–Classic“HypeCycle”NB:Pricespost-collapsegraduallyincreasedandwereabovepre-hypelevels,productionalsoincreased,toreach–“ThePlateauofProductivity”
Priceincreases(3rdhypecycle)2010-2014probablyduetoacombinationoffactors:Tanco,GreenbushesandWodginaclosures,Care&Maintenance(2008-2011),productionnowdominatedbyCentralAfricanpegmatites(Rwanda),reopeningofGreenbushes&Wodgina?DesignationasaconflictmineralandtheDodd-FrankActof2010.Othernewprojectsarenotactivemines(yet?)(AbuDabbab,Nuweibi,UpperFir,Kanyika):therearestillplentyofuntappedresources
Nex2019
REE
Glenover(SouthAfrica)
Nkombwa(Zambia)
Notrare,justdifficulttoextract.1965-1985:MostproductionfromMountainPass1984:ChinastartsproducingFrom1988:>80%oftheworld’sREEproducedinChina2002:MountainPasscloses2010:SenkakuIncident2012:>200JuniorexplorationcompanieslookingforREEdeposits
Castor&Hedrick,2006;Paulick&Machacek,2017
Nex2019
Relatingthehypecycleandcriticalmetalsisnotnew!!
Hocquard2010BRGMPresentationatIfriRoundTableBrussels(InstituteFrancaisdesRelationsInternationales)
Nex2019
Hydrothermal(carbonatite):
WiguHillKangankundeLofdalNgualla
Hydrothermal(metamorphic):
SteenkampskraalSupergene(carbonatite):
ZandkopsdriftXiluvoGlenover
Supergene(ion-adsorption?):
Tantalus
SouthernAfricanCarbonatites&REEDeposits
Nex2019
Nex2019
Deposit Country Source Mt %TREO ContainedREO(kt)
%HREO
NguallaHill Tanzania Carbonatite 195 2.26 4400 0.33
Zandkopsdrift SouthAfrica Carbonatite 42.48 2.08-2.28 949 1.69
Tantalus Madagascar Ion-adsorbtionClays
560.6 0.09 561 4.37
Songwe Malawi Carbonatite 31.8 1.38-1.62 469 1.67
Glenover SouthAfrica Carbonatite 10.37 2.23 231 1.45
Kangankunde Malawi Carbonatite 2.53 4.24 107 0.19
Steenkampskraal SouthAfrica Vein 0.665 14.0 93 1.79
WiguHill Tanzania Carbonatite 3.3 2.16 61 0.10
Xiluvo Mozambique Carbonatite 1.1 2.05 23 1.81
Lofdal Namibia Carbonatite 6.16 0.29 18 20.50
MrimaHIll Kenya Carbonatite 159.4 3.61-4.40 6 2.20
AFRICANREEDEPOSITSWITHESTABLISHEDRESOURCES(datafromTechnologyMetalsResearchhttp://www.techmetalsresearch.com/2016)
Addedtoresourceinventoriesbetween2010and2016
From2011-2015definedmineralresourcesofREEoutsideofChinadoubled:
40Mtto98Mt
Paulick&Machacek,2017
Castor&Hedrick2006
Canada38MtGreenland36MtAfrica10Mt
Nex2019
GalileoResources(Glenover)
GreatWesternMinerals(Steenkampskraal)
MkangoResources(Songwe)
NamibiaCriticalMetals(Lofdal)
SharepricegraphsfromGoogleFinance
Molycorp(MountainPass)
Fromacommercialperspectivetimingiseverything.Ifyoumissthefirsthypecycleyoumightcatchthenextone
CommodityPricesandStockPricesshowsympathetictrends-unsurprisingly
Nex2019
LithiumBikita(Zimbabwe)
Rubicon&Helicon(Namibia)
ObtainedfrombrinesorpegmatitesEV’s–Li-ionbatteriesClimateChangeLegislation
Nex2019
ProductiondatafromBGSWorldMineralStatistics(NBrecalculatedfrommineraldatatolithiumwherenecessary).Pricedatafrommetalary.com
Nex2019
TheEdelsonInstitute
Theexplorationexpenditurefiguresaredifficulttoquantifybuttherewasdefinitelyahard-rocklithiumexplorationboomin2017-2018.
Nex2019
Project Company Ore Grade(Li2O)
ContainedLiO2
Zim Bikita BikitaMinerals Kesler,1978Clarke,2011
10.8Mt10.8Mt
1.4%0.58%
Zim Kamativi CATStrategicMetals
2018(NI43-101) 26.3Mt 0.28% 0.073Mt
Zim Acadia ProspectResources 2017(SAMREC) 40.5Mt 1.44% 0.583Mt
Zim Zulu PremierAfricanMinerals
2017(SAMREC) 20.1Mt 1.06% 0.213Mt
Namibia Helicon&Rubicon
DesertLionEnergy Historical 1.1Mt 1.4%
DRC Manono-Kitolo
Historical 7.86Mt 0.76%
DRC Manono-Kitolo
Historical 35Mt 0.6%
DRC ManonoProject
AVZMinerals 2018(JORC) 259.9Mt 1.63% 4.236Mt
Ghana EgyasimankuHill
IronRidgeResources Historical 1.48Mt 1.66%
Mali Goulamina Birimian 2017(JORC)2018(JORC)
32.9Mt103Mt
1.37%1.34%
1.380Mt
Total 449.8Mt 6.412Mt
Thenewlydeterminedhard-rockresourcesinAfricaequatetoapproximately3MtofLi.(GlobalproductionofLiisintheregionof80,000tpa)
Nex2019
AVZMinerals(Manolo)
Birimian(Goulamina)
Unsurprisinglythesametrendsareseeninshareprices(DatafromGoogleFinance)
ProspectResources(Arcadia)
Onemajoreffectofthehypecycleisastimulustoexplorationandanincreaseintheresourcebase–thisisaGOODthing
Nex2019
2016BGSLithiumProfile
Benson,2017
Africaisunder-representedandwhereisBikita?
USGS2017
Nex2019
ReserveBase(RB)RBinTg(1012g)NotStock-exchangecompliant!!ResourceBasederivedfromUpperCrustalAbundanceFigurefromGraedel&Nassar(2013GSLSP393)
PublishedResourcesandReservesarenotsufficientforforecasting–althoughitswhatweuse.
Nex2019
FromCRIRSCO(CommitteeforMineralReservesInternationalReportingStandards)
Togenerateresourceand/orreserveinformationrequiresexplorationandmoney.Ifithasn’tbeendrilled,sampledandanalysedandunderstoodbygeologists,miningengineersandmetallurgists–itdoesn’texist,atleastinthestatistics.
Nex2019
� CriticalRawMaterialsvarywithtimeandplace.
� Perceivedshortagesaretypicallyareactionbytheuninformed.
� However,sofar,thishasbeenaveryEuropean/American/Japaneseperspective.
� WhataretheRawMaterialsCriticaltoSouthAfricaandAfrica?� BeneficiationvsexportingRawMaterials?� Water,Phosphates,Cement,Iron&Steel,Glasssand?� Infrastructuredevelopments
Nex2019
Which CRM can Africa (potentially) Supply (~2010 Map & talk)
Nex2019
� Co� Li� Ta-Nb� PGE� REE� Sb� W� Ge� Graphite(notonmap)
KamoaandKakulaRecentdiscoveries(2016)disregardedbymanycompaniesduetounfavourablestratigraphy.Theworld’slargestundevelopedhigh-gradecopperdiscovery.TotalIndicatedMineralResource:[email protected]%Cu
Twiteetal2019JAES
Nex2019
Twiteetal2019JAES
IvanhoeMineswebsite2019
Electronicvehiclesuse4XasmuchcopperasanICE
Nex2019
Itisnoteasytomakeaccuratepredic*ons
� “Ithinkthereisaworldmarketformaybe5computers”ThomasWatson,presidentofIBM,1943
(Valero,2014)
Nex2019
EV’svstheFuelCell(Li,C,CovsPGE)
� 2018:FuelCellVehiclesinproduction� ToyotaMirai� HondaClarity� HyundaiTucsonFCEV
� 2018:EV’sinproduction� BolloreBluecar,BMWi3,BTDe6,CheryQQ3EV,ChevroletBolt,
Fiat500e,FordFocusElectric,JACJ3EV,KD5011,KiaSoulEV,LadaEllada,MitsubishiIMiEV,NissanLeaf,OpelAmpera-e,RenaultZoe,RoeweE50,TeslaModelS,TeslaModelX,TeslaModel3,VWe-Up!,VWe-Golf,WheegoWhipLiFe
EV’s23,FuelCell3Nex2019
Moreplatinumisusedincatalyticconvertorsfordieselvehiclesthanpalladium.Thereductionindieselvehiclemanufacturingwilldefinitelyfurtheraffecttheplatinumpriceandtheplatinumindustry
ConsequencesforSouthAfrica
Nex2019
BBCheadline:28thMarch2019“HowhydrogenistransformingthesetinyScottishislands”
Wind
Water
Surplusenergyfromwindandwaterisusedtogeneratehydrogenbysplittingwater.Hydrogenstoredascompressedgas,thenusedtopowerfuelcells,invehiclesandbuildingsasrequired.PGEdemisemaynotgoingtohappenwww.surfnturf.org.ukNex2019
BaPeriesofthefuture?
VisualCapitalist2017
PossiblyalsoVanadiumbatteriesNex2019
� 4thIndustrialRevolution� ArtificialIntelligence� Theinternetofthings� Digitization� Afundamentalchangeinthewaywedothings� DisruptiveTechnology
� CarbonFreeorLow-carbonEconomy� ElectronicVehicles� RenewableEnergySources� Fuel-cellEnergy
Whichoftheseismoreimportant?
Nex2019
Nex2019
Renewableenergywillrequiremorerawmaterials,notless–atleastintheshortandmediumterm.
Vidaletal2017
Currentmisconcep*ons.� “The4thindustrialrevolutionricksrunningoutofsteambecauseofashortageoftheessentialelementsneededtorunit.”(Jezard2017WorldEconomicForum)
� The4thindustrialrevolutionwillreduceminingactivity
� Thereareshortagesofmineralsrequiredtoprovideelementsfor21stCentury“civilised”life.
Nex2019
Autonomousvehicles:mining(RioTinto)isaheadofthecurve:
July2018280kmjourney28,000tofironorenodriverControlledbyanoperationscentre1,500kmawayTrainlength2.4km
Theworld’sfirstfullyautonomous,longdistance,heavy-haulrailnetwork
InformationandpicturefromRioTintowebsite
Nex2019
IsSouthAfricareadyforautonomousvehicles?Education,Education,Education,
BMW and Daimler, two giants in the automobile sector, are pooling their resources in a joint mobility effort that spans autonomous cars, ride-hailing, electric scooters, car-sharing, and electric car charging. The two companies announced on Friday that their intention is to spend $1.13 billion on the venture, an eye-popping sum designed to make the rest of the industry sit up and take notice.https://www.theverge.com/2019/2/22/18235941/daimler-bmw-mobility-joint-venture-billion-dollars22ndFebruary2019Isitaco-incidencethatthepotentiallackofREEcausedtremorsinthecarindustry–perhapstheydon’twanttobecaughtinanuncertainfutureagain.
DisruptiveTechnology
The4thIndustrialRevolutionBuzzwordsorReality–whoisgoingtogamble?
Howmanyofyouwillownavehiclein50yearstime?
Nex2019