Marriage and Family Formation Among Urban In-Migrants in Antwerp and Stockholm

A Longitudinal Approach to Social Integration, 1846-1926

Paul Puschmann1, Per-Olof Grönberg², Reto Schumacher³ & Koen Matthijs⁴

¹PhD. Fellow at Research Foundation Flanders (FWO); FaPoS, KU Leuven; Belgium.²Centre for Population Studies, Umeå University; Sweden.

³NCCR Lives and Institute for Demographic and Life Course Studies, University of Geneva; Switzerland.

FaPoS, KU Leuven; Belgium.

To be Presented at the Fourth Urban Demography Network Meeting,Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research (MPIDR)

Rostock , Germany; 2-May 2012

Migration and Integration in Western European Cities, 1850-

1930 Growing numbers of urban in-migrants in Western European cities

Causes of increase in urban in-migration:• Agricultural crisis, population pressure in the countryside, gradual

destruction of putting-out system• Growing demand for laborers in urban environment: industry;

commerce, services• Working and living conditions in cities improve: Industry offers more

permanent employment; more rights for laborers; cities become healthier places.

Fate of Urban Newcomers:• Chicago School of Sociology: Newcomers end up on the edge of society• Scholars who stress selectivity of migration: Integration of specific

groups of newcomers, notably stayers and long-distance migration went rather smoothly.

A Longitudinal Approach to Integration

Major methodological shortcomings in existing literature:• Chicago school of Sociology: Too problem-orientated• Cross-sectional analysis of integration: Biased view toward

stayers.

Advantages of Longitudinal Approach• Integration is a longitudinal process• Majority of migrants can be included• More accurate techniques (event-history, sequence anlaysis,

etc.) to measure demographic events (person years vs. persons)

Access to Marriage and Reproduction as Measures of

Social Integration How did the social integration process of different groups of

migrants evolve?• Did some groups of migrants integrate easier than others?• Are there differences regarding the integration process between Antwerp and

Stockholm?• Which characteristics of migrants stimulated or hampered integration?• Were there differences in societal openness between Antwerp and Stockholm?• Did industrialization encourage integration?

Social Integration: the ability of migrants to find their way in the city

Timing and incidence of marriage as Measures of Social-Integration.

Underlying assumption: time between arrival and marriage and family formation reflects the time it takes for newcomers to find, amongst other things, a good job, a decent living location and a suited marriage partner.

Two Different Types of Growing Port Cities

Communalities• Antwerp and Stockholm experienced considerable population growth,

because of declining mortality and rising in-migration• Both cities were port cities

Differences• Stockholm went through a process of industrialization; in Antwerp

industrialization hardly took root.• In Stockholm the port played only a minor role in the city’s economy. In

Antwerp the port dominated the whole city’s economy.• Stockholm was a capital city, Antwerp was not.

Data & MethodsAntwerp StockholmBased on: Based on:Population registers The ‘Roteman’ registration systemVital registration of births, marriages and deaths

33,583 life-courses Information on all inhabitants

Intra- and intergeneration comparisons Intra- and intergeneration comparisons

Contains information on: Contains information on:Socio-economic and demographic characteristics Socio-economic and demographic characteristicsHousehold composition Household compositionKin inside and outside the household Kin inside the householdMarriage witnesses

Allows to follow moves in the area Allows to follow moves in the area

Disrtete-time event history analysis Failure events: first marriage; first birth

Censoring: death, out migration, end of registration life table estimator and plotted survival curves

Discrete time logit models

Survival Curves Time to Marriage Time to First Birth

Antwerp

adult years since arrival adult years since arrival

Stockholm

adult years since arrival adult years since arrival

Discrete-time survival models of marriage and first observed birth among unmarried migrants

time to marriage time to first birth

OR p-value OR p-value

years since immigration 1.155 0.000 1.345 0.003

years squared 0.992 0.000 0.985 0.001

age at immigration    

< 18 1 ref 1 ref

19-24 1.170 0.260 0.901 0.688

25-34 0.901 0.510 0.429 0.006

35+ 0.619 0.026 0.066 0.000

historical period    

1846-1869 0.259 0.000 0.263 0.000

1870-1889 1 ref 1 ref

1890-1905 2.150 0.000 0.737 0.217

1906-1922 3.557 0.000 0.319 0.000

gender    

male 1 ref 1 ref

female 0.949 0.650 1.336 0.225

region of birth    

province of Antwerp 1.113 0.410 1.640 0.063

Flanders 1 ref 1 ref

Brussel area 1.322 0.192 0.300 0.034

Wallonia 1.009 0.969 0.601 0.236

outside Belgium 0.593 0.002 0.534 0.069

unknown 0.467 0.042 0.209 0.180

social class    

upper 0.936 0.812 0.655 0.570

middle 0.837 0.254 0.575 0.103

lower 1 ref 1 ref

unknown 1.126 0.377 2.305 0.005

year of immigration not known 0.535 0.000 0.293 0.004

year of outmigration not known 1.571 0.000 1.031 0.900

married 21.76 0.000

   

intercept -4.247 0.000 -4.875 0.000

random intercept (stdev) 0.003 0.497 1.722 0.000   

observed person-years 10508 10062

observed individuals 2010 2038

observed events 374 213

time to marriage time to first birthOR p-value OR p-value

years since immigration 1.483 0.000 1.109 0.000

years squared 0.983 0.000 0.994 0.000

age at immigration    

< 18 1 ref 1 ref

19-24 1.534 0.000 1.159 0.043

25-34 2.092 0.000 0.968 0.692

35 + 0.773 0.009 0.376 0.000

historical period    

1878-1889 1.199 0.000 1.019 0.800

1890-1905 1 ref 1 ref

1906-1927 0.975 0.450 0.677 0.000

gender    

male 1 ref 1 ref

female 0.700 0.000 0.928 0.164

region of birth    

Stockholm county 1 ref 1 ref

East central Sweden 0.845 0.005 0.891 0.234

Southern Sweden 0.690 0.000 0.887 0.204

Gothenburg 0.588 0.000 0.729 0.231

Northwest central Sweden 0.671 0.000 0.938 0.524

Northern Sweden 0.552 0.000 0.745 0.041

unknown domestic 0.668 0.047 0.929 0.826

Finland 0.558 0.000 5.767 0.000

Norway 0.824 0.184 8.055 0.000

Russia 2.008 0.000 16.317 0.000

Germany 0.878 0.221 6.413 0.000

other international 0.559 0.000 3.363 0.000

social class    

upper 1.396 0.002 0.750 0.109

middle 1.128 0.008 0.825 0.008

lower 1 ref 1 ref

unknown 0.951 0.251 0.964 0.588

married 62.545 0.000   

intercept -5.368 0.000 -7.430 0.000

random intercept 1.605 0.000 1.333 0.000 

observed person-years 292408 335732

observed individuals 51897 51786

observed events 7820 2941

Antwerp Stockholm

Discussion & Conclusion Higher incidences of marriage and reproduction among migrants in Antwerp. Was Antwerp more open to

newcomers?

Clear connection between age at arrival and Integration: The younger someone arrived the better the chances were for marriage and family formation

Industrialization did not increase access to marriage and reproduction; Industrialization did not facilitate integration. In Antwerp the chances of getting married grew over time in the absence of large-scale industrialization. Notwithstanding, large scale industrialization the chances of marrying among Stockholm’s migrants decreased over time.

No big gender differences: Only better chances for males to get married in Stockholm

In Antwerp and Stockholm the likelihood of getting married was smaller among international migrants (except Russians in Stockholm). International migrants had more trouble in getting integrated. Were they less attractive?

No significant difference in access to reproduction in Antwerp according to the migrants’ region of origin. In the case of Stockholm, international migrants did have a much higher probability of experiencing the birth of a first child.

In the case of Antwerp, no clear relationship between social class and marriage and start of reproduction. In the case of Stockholm: Middle class and upper class migrants had higher chances of getting married, but a lower chances of experiencing a first birth

The timing and incidence of the first marriage might be a better indicator of integration than the onset of reproduction in the period we studied: Decreased chances of experiencing a first birth might say more about birth control practices than about access to reproduction, especially in the case of Stockholm.

Correlation between bad registration of in and out-migration on the one hand and access to marriage and reproduction on the other hand: Statistical artifact or historical reality?