PCEA PUBLIC HEARINGS

22 September 2015

Consultation on SA’s Intended Nationally

Determined Contribution (INDC)

DEFN. CLIMATE CHANGE:

Weather “What is happening in the

atmosphere at any given time”

Climate“Average weather over longer

time frames”

Climate Change A change in the patterns of weather over an

extended period of time.It includes changes in temperature, rainfall, or

wind patterns, or in changes in extreme events, that occur over several decades or longer.

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IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

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From Durban to Paris

INDC: To clarify legal status and its r/ship to the 2015 agreement

To develop a Protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force under the convention applicable to all

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African COPTrust building COP

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Establish the 2nd commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol

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Platform for all key stakeholders to discuss and agree

Launching the Durban Platform for Enhanced Action (ADP)

Doha COP 18

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Warsaw COP 19

Lima COP 20

Doha Amendment to the Kyoto protocol is established

Reinforced INDC- Agreed on upfront information for mitigation- Agreed to include adaptation undertaking as

component of the INDC- Agreed on LIMA call for Climate Action

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ADP Decision that incites parties to initiate or intensifyDomestic preparations for INDC (National homework) and accelerate full implementationOf the BAP and Pre 2020 ambition

Durban COP 17

Paris COP 21

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PROGRESS UNDER UNFCCC

• The negotiations under the UNFCCC towards the adoption of a new legal instrument in December 2015 are over differentiation of responsibilities in International Relations;

• SA operates in the UNFCCC based on its national interests and domestic economic profile, member of Africa Group, the G77&China, and BASIC;

• SA is viewed as a constructive actor based on its role in hosting and guiding the Durban COP towards a consensus outcome, which is the basis of current negotiations under the Durban Platform on Enhanced Action (ADP);

• 2015 is the critical and concluding year of the climate change negotiations initiated by the Durban COP in 2011 towards the adoption of a new “protocol, another legal instrument or an agreed outcome with legal force” under the Convention.

• The Paris agreement will be implemented from 2020.• As G77&China chair 2015 is particularly crucial for South Africa.

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South Africans expectations for the 2015 agreement

SA’s Expectations

Multilateral Rules & Legal

binding

Adequacy below 2 degrees

Transition to low

emissions and climate

relianceFulfilment of article 2

objectives of the

convention

Equal priority to adaptation

and mitigation with (MoI)

Inclusive, fair (CBDR), and

effective

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Summary of SA Position for COP21(1)• ADP - 2015 Agreement should:

– Be under the Convention, and in accordance with its principles and provisions in particular the principles of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities and equity;

– Be consistent with science and equity, and further enhance a multilateral rules based system in a balanced and ambitious manner;

– Provide legal parity between mitigation and adaptation; and– ensure mitigation ambition keeps the world on track for global

temperature increase that is well below 2 degrees Celsius from pre-industrial levels by the end of the century.

• Pre-2020 Workstream II – part of Durban mandate should receive equal priority;

• Parties to UNFCCC should urgently ratify the second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol (KP2);

• Developed countries not participating in KP 2 to fulfil their obligation under the Convention.

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Summary of SA Position for COP21(3)SBs Thematic Area:• Finance

– South Africa support Africa’s call that the 2015 agreement should also spell out the support from developed countries to the developing countries as stipulated in the Convention.

– It is also important that the capitalization of the Green Climate Fund be continued in the pre-2020 period to fill the finance gap that currently exists. The GCF is supposed to mobilise $100 billion per annum from 2020 onwards. It is important to advocate the yearly targets for the capitalization of the GCF.

– The COP also has to resolve the issue of sources and scale of finance for the post 2020 period.

• Capacity Building– South Africa has called for the establishment of the international capacity-building

mechanism that can ensure coherence of this cross-cutting issue, whilst facilitating implementation of adaptation and mitigation in developing countries.

– The international capacity-building mechanism under this agreement should be supported through the Financial and Technology mechanisms under the Convention and be linked to adaptation-related institutions.

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Intended Nationally Determined Contributions

Adaptation

Mitigation

Means of Implementation

Equity

INDC

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Scope of work on adaptation A-INDC

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Past, present & future planning

Programmes and projects implemented

Current sectoral needs – adaptation

sectors

Adaptation component of the INDC (A-INDC) [1] Element Undertaking for the period 2021-2030 Assumptions / Methodologies UNFCCC contextAdaptation objectives and planning

Goal 1: Develop a National Adaptation Plan as part of implementing the NCRP by 2020 Goal 2: Take into account climate consideration national development and sectoral policy framework by 2020/2025Goal 3: Strengthen the capacity of institutions, and institutionalisation of climate change policy frameworks by 2025/2030Goal 4: Develop an early warning and reporting system for all climate adaptation sectors by 2025/2030

National Development Plan, sectoral plans and any future variants  Flexible and adaptive sectoral policies that will increase institutional capability  Development of national framework for vulnerability and needs assessment well before 2020.

International agreement that supports a continuous refinement of South Africa’s INDC, reporting ex post for rolling five year implementation periods 2016-2020, 2021-2025, 2026-2030.

Adaptation component of the INDC (A-INDC) [2] Element Undertaking for the period 2021-2030 Assumptions / Methodologies UNFCCC contextAdaptation needs and costs.

Goal 5: Development of a vulnerability assessment and adaptation needs f amework by 2020Damage costs associated with high impact climate events  Emission scenarios considered are RCP 8.5 (low mitigation) and RCP 4.5 (moderate-high mitigation).  Annual costs were calculated for 2021-2030 and 2021-2040.

Subject to an international agreement that provides upfront information on support available for adaptation in the context of Article 4.7 and an assessment of adequacy support vis a vis needs

Adaptation component of the INDC (A-INDC) [3] Element Undertaking for the period 2021-2030 Assumptions / Methodologies UNFCCC contextAdaptation investments Goal 6: Communication of past investments in adaptation  Identify adaptation investments from official annual reports.

• The years covered are 2010 – 2015.

Development & implementation of a monitoring and evaluation framework, • which includes indicators, to tracking domestic investment and tracking of international support.

Report on a 5 year ex-post cycle, subject to CoP determined rules that build on existing reporting mechanism/instruments

Adaptation component of the INDC (A-INDC) [4] Reported costs

Estimates of present-day and future costs across all extreme events ( 2014 real billions of $US).

Event type Years Damage costs (2014 real)Wildfires (forestry only) 1982 – 2012 US$ 0.32-1.28 bn Storms (Hail) 1995 – 2013 US$ 0.06 bnDroughts 1992, (2003, 2010, 2014) US$ 0.12 bn, (US$ 0.07 bn)Floods 1900 – 2011 US$ 5.6 bn

Period 10th percentile Median 90th percentile

Present-day (1971-2000)

0.417

2.758

22.806

2021-2030 Low mitigation (RCP8.5)

0.413

2.871

30.795

2021-2030 High mitigation (RCP4.5)

0.356

2.754

29.834

2021-2050 Low mitigation (RCP8.5)

0.232

3.09

53.094

2021-2050 High mitigation (RCP4.5)

0.188

2.720

50.030

Reported costsAdaptation component of the INDC (A-INDC) [5]

• For the period 2021-2030, an increase of 5 % in the median costs is projected under low mitigation, • This rises to 11 % by 2021-2050.

• By 2021-2030 extreme-year costs reach 11 times the present-day mean,

• For 2021-2050 costs may reach 19 times the present-day mean according to the CSIR projections

Adaptation component of the INDC (A-INDC) [6]

• Domestic investment into capacity to facilitate climate change adaptation increased from US$ 0.26 million to US$ 1.1 million from 2011 to 2015

• Implementation investment increased from US$ 0.71 bn to US$ 1.88 bn from 2010 to 2015.

• Support from the international financial mechanisms – Adaptation fund: US$10 Million;– UNEP: US$ 3.5 Million

Adaptation component of the INDC (A-INDC) [7] Sectoral investments scaled up to 2020, 2025 and 2030  2020 (US$ bn) 2020 (US$ bn) 2030 (US$ bn)Agriculture and Fisheries 0.75 - 1.19 0.96 –2.39 1.22 –4.80Energy 0.46 - 0.72 0.59 – 1.46 0.75 – 2.93Human settlements 0.03 - 0.04 0.03 – 0.08 0.04 – 0.16Biodiversity 0.06 - 0.10 0.08 – 0.20 0.10 – 0.41Water 0.75 - 1.19 0.96 – 2.39 1.22 – 4.80disaster risk reduction 0.89 - 1.41 1.14 – 2.83 1.45 – 5.70

key programmes requiring scaling-up going forward, particularly beyond 2020 include

• Working for Water (WfW) and Working on Fire (WoF)

• Working on Wetlands estimated at Water Conservation and Water Demand Management

• Land Care

Framing of South African INDC

Mitigation component• The undertaking is premised on:

– Copenhagen pledge to take Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Action to enable a 34% deviation below the "business as usual" emissions growth trajectory by 2020, and a 42% deviation below the "business as usual" emissions growth trajectory by 2025.

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Mitigation component

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Conditional on Fin-, tech- & capacity building

Copenhagen pledge = full

potential

Multilateral rules based

regime

Elements informed by Lima

COP

Periodic assessment

Support for mitigation

and adaptation

Mitigation component of the INDC (M-INDC)Element of para 14 of Lima decision

Summary of table in discussion doc re SA’s M-INDC

Reference point (including, as appropriate, a base year)

PPD emissions trajectory, starting point 2016

Time frames and / or periods for implementation

2025 (firm), 2030 (indicative) and 2050 (aspirational). Consistent with 42% deviation below BAU by 2025 Range for 2030 5-year periods of implementation, aligned with domestic policy instruments: 2016-2020, 2021-2025, etc.

Long-term aspirational goal: total GHG emissions in range 212 -428 Mt CO2–eq by 2050Important policy signal

Scope and coverage Economy-wide, all sectors, six greenhouse gases (GHGs) Sources as in latest GHG inventory IPCC major categoriesIncreased disaggregation over time

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Mitigation component of the INDC (M-INDC)Element of para 14 of Lima decision

Summary of table in discussion doc re SA’s M-INDC

Planning processes, assumptions and methodological approaches

Planning processes: • Development and climate – NCCRWP and NDP. • Legislation under consideration, will require approval by

Parliament. Assumptions: • Article 4.7 – extent of implementation depends on provision

of support by int’l system; • ambitious, fair, effective and binding multilateral agreement PPD range: • As outlined in NCCRWP; • informed by detailed studies of mitigation potential, have

been updated and on-going improvement to move to implementation

Methodologies for Estimating Emissions: 2006 IPCC guidelines

Metric applied: • 100-year Global Warming Potential (AR4; GHG-I uses TAR

but indicates future use of AR4)• Approach to AFOLU: Included, but uncertainty noted,

intention to reduce over time and need support

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Mitigation component of the INDC (M-INDC)Element of para 14 of Lima decision

Summary of table in discussion doc re SA’s M-INDC

How the Party considers that its intended nationally determined contribution is fair and ambitious, in light of its national circumstances, and how it contributes towards achieving the objective of the Convention as set out in its Article 2

science and equity-based approach • Relative fair share relates to science (2 °C) and equitable

effort-sharing paradigm.

Balanced: mitigation, adaptation and support

PPD contributes by bending curve, • in context of poverty

Consistent with just transition to low carbon future.IPCC AR5 :• remaining future global carbon budget• Important flexibility over time, at national level • SA expert analysis, applying Convention principles of

responsibility, capability and sustainable development = carbon budget larger than the PPD trajectory range

• Accept other analysis gives different results• Others must engage in equity analysis as well (African

proposal on principle-based reference framework)

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Support component of INDC (S-INDC)

• Support for both adaptation and mitigation, based on specific sectors and initiatives

• Support: finance, technology and capacity-building – Adaptation: total investment in adaptation increased from $US 0.64

bn to $US 2.31 bn from 2010 to 2015. Details and specific programmes in document

– SA invested in mitigation - REI4P, public transport infrastructure, green economy in budget, SA Green Fund (needs to be scaled up)

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Support component of INDC (S-INDC)

• Significant financing required, based on analysis of incremental costs of future mitigation – expand REI4P in next ten years: $3 billion per year – Decarbonised electricity (renewable energy and nuclear power) by 2050 -

estimated $ 349 billion over 2010 to 2050– CCS: 23 Mt CO2 from coal-to-liquid - $0.45 billion– Electric vehicles - $513 billion over 2010 to 2050– Hybrid electric vehicles: 20% by 2030 - $488 billion

• Technologies identified include: Energy efficient lighting; Variable speed drives and efficient motors; Energy efficient appliances; Solar water heaters; Hybrid electric vehicles ; Solar PV ; Wind power; Carbon Capture and Sequestration; Nuclear ; and Advanced biofuels.

• Implementing mitigation system – need enhanced human and institutional capacity

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Equity (1) A-INDC reporting and equity

• SA is willing to report on a 5 year ex-post cycle, subject to CoP determined rules that build on existing reporting mechanism/instruments

• Equity considerations in adaptation– Adaptation as a global responsibility– requires international cooperation – SA investments reported ex post, should be recognised as

contribution

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Equity (2)

• Mitigation – SA experts carbon budget calculated based on indicators consistent

with core Convention principles of responsibility, capability and sustainable development: 20-22 Gt CO2-eq for the period 2016- 2050

– Larger than area under mid- and upper-range PPD: 16-20 Gt• Other principle-based criteria can be applied

– Chinese and Indian experts based on cumulative emissions per capita: 7-11 Gt CO2eq for 2000–2049, if a starting year of 1850 is assumed for historical responsibility

• Meta-analysis of different approaches, 50% and 66% probabilty of staying below 2 °C

• Carbon budgets for SA by others significantly smaller than PPD trajectory range– Only lower PPD within range in 2020

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Progress

• Account for progress in achieving its INDC under UNFCCC

• Fundamental basis for mitigation: regularly updated GHG inventories

• Biennial update report – 2014 submitted and next in 2016

• Positive ‘direction of travel’ for all countries

• No back-sliding; cannot be weaker than Copenhagen/ Cancun, indeed should be stronger

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THANK YOU

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