Peace and Conflict in the Middle East By: Brandon Murray,
Edward Keller, and Conner Paul
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The Arab Spring What is it? Started 18 th December 2010 in
Tunisia By 2015 everything from protests to civil wars had occurred
in 17 different countries Slogan: Ash- shab yurid isqat
an-nizam
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The Spark December 18 th, 2010 Sidi Bouzid, Tunisia Mohammed
Bouazizi Fruit/Vegetable Vendor
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Aftermath Protests erupted throughout the country fueled by
discontent over economic inequality, authoritarian government and
corruption By 1/16 th Tunisian President Zine al-Abidine Ben Ali
had fled country to Saudi Arabia 10/2011 First Democratic Elections
held Won by Moderate Ennahda Party
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Arab Spring Effects
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Causes Resentment of Authoritarian Rulers Lack of freedom of
Expression Ineffective Judicial System Human Rights Abuses Economic
Inequality It is clear that the protests as a whole were not
ideological, in that they did not seek to impose a particular set
of beliefs or order. Instead, they united discontented citizens
from across political, economic, class and religious divides in
opposition to their autocratic governments. The figures that united
the protestors were not political leaders but ordinary people who
had suffered at the hands of the authoritarian systems Although
there were some differences in emphasis, all of the evidence we
received agreed that protests were spurred by a potent combination
of economic, social, and political grievances that created "fertile
grounds for dissent" and united disparate groups in opposition to
their autocratic systems.
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Syrian Civil War
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Syrian Revolution Discontent with the government is highly
present in poorer areas of the country, who are largely
conservative Sunnis, including cities with extremely high poverty
rates, such as Daraa and Homs. Socio-economic inequality increased
after free market policies were started by former president Hafez
al-Assad, which has been accelerated by his son, and current
president, Bashar al-Assad. These new government policies only
benefitted a minute portion of the population, mainly those within
the service sector and for people who had connections with the
government. As of 2011, Syria was staring in the face of national
deterioration in regards to standard of living, with significant
rises in the prices of goods and high youth unemployment rates
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Syrian Revolution Cont. Civil War ongoing armed conflict which
began in spring of 2011 Arab protests began against President
Bashar al-Assad, government forces responded with violent
crackdowns Conflict went from popular protests, Arab Spring, to
armed rebellions in a matter of months
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Islamic Secular Regions
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74% Sunni, made up mostly of Arab, Kurdish, and Turkoman
ethnicities. 13% Shia, predominately consisted of Alawites,
followed by Twelvers and Ismailis. 3% Druze.
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Syrian Government Most potent armed force in current conflict
due to ability to outgun rebel forces. Has experienced many
defections from army to different rebel groups and has loss
territory to these groups as well. Led by President Bashar Assad,
the greatest advantage the government has is their uncontested
airpower. Over the past year, Assad has been able to bolster power
through the creation of a pro-government militia group the National
Defense Force, that draws from Syrian minority communities that
have reportedly received training from Iran.
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Syrian Government Cont. As of July, 2013, Syrian government had
control of 30-40% of Syrian territory and 60% of Syrian population.
UN reported that conflict was overtly sectarian in nature stating
that the conflict was between government and militia Shia groups
against Sunni dominated rebel groups.
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The Opposition The rebellious opposition consists of different
groups such as the Free Syrian Army (Supreme Military Council), who
first took up arms in 2011, and the Islamic Front, which was formed
in 2013.
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Free Syrian Army Syrias more moderate rebel group, headed by
Gen. Salim Idris, who spent over 30 years in Syrias military. This
group was the leading opposition group in the beginning of the
struggle, but has been unsuccessful in rebellions largely due to
lack of support and inability of having needed weapons and
munitions delivered from Western and Arab allies.
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Islamic Front An alliance of seven different powerful
conservative rebel groups estimated to be around 45,000 in number.
Their goal is to create an Islamic state in Syria while rejecting
the Free Syrian Army. Publicly criticized radical and brutal groups
such as Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL).
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Jabhat al-Nusra The Nusra is an Islamist extremist group
affiliated with al-Qaida, mainly composed of Syrians. The Nusra
Front is one of the most powerful rebel factions, but has been
overran by ISIL. This organization has been deemed a terrorist
organization by countries such as the U.S. and has claimed
ownership to many deadly suicide bombings targeting regime and
military facilities. Extremist groups such as this one is the
leading cause as to why western allies have not provided opposition
forces with sophisticated weapons, such as anti-aircraft missiles,
to fight of the Syrian government.
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Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) Long standing
Al-Qaida affiliate from Iraq. Moved into Syria aggressively in
early 2013 to establish presence in the north which is populated by
other opposition groups. Said to be largely composed of foreign
fighters and is the most ruthless opposition on the battlefield.
Not only have they fought the Syrian government, but have also led
charges against the Kurdish minority in the north. This group has
alienated many in the region through brutal tactics and strict
Islamic law interpretations including kidnapping, torturing, and
beheading. By July 2014, they controlled 1/3 of territory and most
of its oil and gas production. Established itself as the major
opposition force.
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Death Toll The Syrian Revolution currently has a death toll
rising above 190,000 lives. Organizations around the globe have
accused each side of violating several different basic human
rights, including massacres through physical violence and the use
of chemical weapons. Also, there has been tens of thousands of
activists and protestors alike captured and incarcerated and
reports have arose of these captured civilians being tortured in
state prisons.
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Current Standing At the conclusion of 2014, 6.5 million Syrians
have been displaced throughout the Middle East. 3 million Syrians
have fled to multiple countries, including Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey,
Egypt, and Iraq, where they have become refugees of war. The
remaining have been left in very poor living arrangements with
shortages in both drinking water and food. By the end of 2014 and
beginning of 2015, the Syrian government has been able to find
several militant defeats of ISIS and has had several successful
attacks by the Syrian Army in both northern and southern parts of
Syria.
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Economic Impact The civil war has brought Syrias economy to its
knees. Before war, unemployment was below 10%, today, every second
Syrian is without a job. Those who were being counted on, the
well-educated, have been moving abroad looking for work. Another
issue is significant infrastructure has been destroyed throughout
the conflict. This has led to many companies moving production
sites to Egypt or Turkey. The economic costs of the war has already
been said to have outweighed the countrys economic output. As a
result of the war, investment as decreased by hal,f exports, mainly
in oil, have gone from 400,000 barrels a day to less than half
that, a sense of violence-based economics has been spreading, and
Europes freezing of Syrian government banks accounts has led to a
shortage of funds to run medical services. The only savior the
country has had is its agricultural production, which has risen
from 17% to 27% of the countrys GDP.
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Egypt Crisis
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Egyptian Revolution of 2011 Thousands of Egyptians took to the
streets to protest the autocratic rule of Hosni Mubarak amid the
Arab Spring Mubarak steps down due to international pressure and
lack of support from the Egyptian military Muslim Brotherhood
backed the protesters
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Egyptian Revolution of 2011 Police became overwhelmed by the
number of protesters and were forced to retreat from parts of Cairo
After Mubarak stepped down, the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces
took control of the country (SCAF) Many protests errupted calling
for the end of the military rule, some protests resulting in
violence (Port Said Stadium disaster) Despite the protests, the
SCAF had a 40% approval rating
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Mohamed Morsi Comes to Power Elections are held in June 2012
and Mohamed Morsi is voted into the presidency Morsi resigned from
both the Muslim Brotherhood and the Freedom and Justice Party
before he took office In Novemeber of 2012 Morsi granted himself
unlimited power to protect the country as well as legislate without
judicial oversight This leads to massive protests and voilence
throughout the country
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The Ousting of Morsi On the anniversey of Morsi being elected,
millions of Egyptians went to the streets to protest and demand for
the resignation of Morsi A reported 14 million people Egyptian
armed forces intervene on behalf of the people and oust Morsi
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Transition Period A number of violent clashes occurred in the
aftermath of the Egyptian coup detat There were large disagreements
between people that called for Morsis return and people who
supported the current interm governement and military Rabaa
massacre
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Transition Period General Abdul Fatah al-Sisi became a popular
figure in Egypt post-coup He eventually ran for president and won
with close to 97% of the vote
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Economic Impact Still suffering from downturn during the 2011
revolution Real GDP growth slowed to 2.2% a year between 2012/2013
Investment declines 13% over same period Large effect on rise in
unemployment, which hovered around 13% as of December 2012, with
around 3.5 people unemployed
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Overall Economic Impact HSBC Inquiry Involved Egypt, Tunisia,
Libya, Jordan, Lebanon and Bahrain Nearly three years on, the
economic and human cost of the Arab Spring continues to mount. In
the postrevolution states, the impact is obvious: we estimate the
value of lost output will top USD800bn by the end of next year. In
the [Gulf Cooperation Council], it is more indirect increased
dependence on energy revenues, rising breakeven oil prices, and a
stalled reform programme. For both groups, it will be hard to
reverse
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Future Outlook Tunisia: Drafted New Constitution, more stable
than other countries Libya: Continued Instability, In process of
drafting new constitution Bahrain: Increasingly frequent clashes
between police and protestors Algeria: More conservative revolts
has led to stability. Reform currently in progress
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