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Peanut Planted Acres by Region
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Peanut Situation and Outlook Peanut Situation and Outlook for 2000/2001for 2000/2001
Southern Region Agricultural Outlook ConferenceSeptember 25-27, 2000
Peanut Situation
Crop conditions a mixed bag U.S. production on a downtrend Domestic demand slowly increasing Exports flat Stocks at burdensome level but expected to
be trimmed in 2001 Lowest prices in a decade
Peanut Planted Acres by Region
0
500
1000
1500
2000
US Southeast Southwest VC
U.S. Peanut Yields
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000Po
unds
US Peanut Production
20002500300035004000450050005500
Mill
ion
Poun
ds
Production
US Peanut Production and Quota 1990-2000
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 '00
Crop Year
Farm
er S
tock
Equ
ival
ent
Mill
ion
Tons
Basic Quota Effective Quota Production Food Use
Quota Plus Buybacks
U.S. Peanut Balance Sheet million pounds (Sept 13, 2000)
25.628.4Average Price103512291392Ending Stocks411641613575TOTAL USE391496401Seed & Residual720720562Exports710713460Crush229522322153Food Use515153904967TOTAL SUPPLY169169155Imports375338293963Production12291392848Beg. Stocks
2000/01 Proj.1999/00 Est.1998/99
World Peanut Production by Country
3%
1%
35%
21%
40%
US
Argentina
India
China
Other
World Peanut Production
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Mill
ion
Met
ric
Tons
1998 1999P 2000F
USChinaIndiaArgentinaOthers
Source: FAS, USDA
Domestic Food Use Of Peanuts
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99F
Crop Year
FS
Tons
Adjusted For Imports
Edible Peanut Use by Product 1999/2000
51%
23%
26%
PeanutButter
Candy
Snack
Domestic Peanut Use
0200400600800
10001200140016001800
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
Mill
ion
Poun
ds
Total Candy Snacks Peanut Butter
Use of Shelled Edible PeanutsAugust thru June
8.3
12.3
-1.6
2.8
-7.4
14.7
4.4 3.6
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
Perc
ent C
hang
e
97/98 vs 98/99 98/99 vs 99/00
Candy Snacks PButter Total
Government Purchases For Food and Child Nutrition Programs
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
95/96 96/97 97/98 98/99 99/00 *
Crop Year
Thou
sand
Ton
s FSE
* Through June ‘00
Trend in the Volume of Exports for USA
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
YEAR
THO
USA
ND
ME
TRIC
TO
NS
Major Peanut Export Destinations
29%
27%15%
12%
4%3%
10%
NetherlandsCanadaMexicoUnited KingdomSpainJapanOther
1999 Marketing Year
Old Crop Carry-In Stocks
0100200300400500600700
Farm
er S
tock
E
quiv
alen
t, 1,
000
Tons
Marketing Year
U.S. Average Peanut Price
232425262728293031
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Cen
ts /
Pouo
nd
Average Price
Price of 50% Peanut MealSoutheast Mills
0
50
100
150
200
250
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99*
Crop Year
$ P
er T
on
* Estimated
Price of Peanut Oil, Southeast Mills
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99*
Crop Year
Cen
ts P
er P
ound
* Estimated
Outlook for 2000-01
Prices at support level despite drought conditions
Continuation of current trends on supply and demand side– Reduction in additional peanut acreage– Increasing yields– Steady growth in demand– Global competition
Peanut Industry Issues
Quality - aflatoxin Irrigation receiving
contracts Increased Promotion –
National Peanut Board Competitiveness in
export market Future of the Peanut
Program