Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Electing the President Chapter 10

Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005

Electing the President

Chapter 10


Nominating a President• In most democracies, nominees for chief

executive are chosen by party activists.• U.S. unusual

– Process of nomination lengthy and public– Eligible voters can participate in a

• Caucus: meeting of candidate supporters who choose delegates to a state or national convention, or

• Primary: Preliminary election that narrows the number of candidates by determining who will be the nominees in the general election.


Caucuses• How do they work?

– Participants meet in each voter precinct.– Voting is highly personal; supporters of the various

presidential candidates try to attract uncommitted voters to their side.

– Process has a number of stages– Democratic caucuses regulated: very open– Republican caucuses less open– All caucuses have relatively low turnout and are

unrepresentative of the general population.


Primaries• Primaries take many forms across the

states.– Closed primaries: primaries in which only

party members can vote – and only in the party in which they are registered

– Semi-closed primaries: primaries in which independents can vote in one of the party primaries

– Open primaries: primaries in which any registered voter can vote in any party’s primary


Evolution of the Nomination Process

• Direct primaries originated in America.• Prior to direct primaries, the party leaders

controlled process for selecting delegates to nominating conventions.

• After the introduction of the direct primary in presidential nominations, the rules have been tinkered with, but the process has not changed greatly.– Example: Superdelegates


Financing Nomination Campaigns

• Federal government provides public subsidies to candidates for presidential party nominations– Check off on income tax return– Federal Elections Commission distributes the

subsidies as matching funds.– To qualify for matching funds, candidate must

• Raise at least $5000 in each of 20 states in contributions no greater than $250 in the year he or she announces candidacy


Financing Nomination Campaigns• To stay eligible for these matching funds a

candidate must– comply with spending limits in each state and– must be at least minimally successful during the

voting.• If a candidate fails to receive at least 10 percent of the vote

in two consecutive primaries, he will lose eligibility and can regain it only by getting 20 percent or more of the vote in a later primary.

• Most candidates take these funds, but some do not in order to spend what they wish in states rather than deal with the restrictions.


Strengths and Weaknesses of the Nomination Process

• Procedural concerns– Campaign is too long and starts too early– Primaries are front-loaded

• Many states have moved up their primaries to earlier dates to be a part of the “action.”

• Party leaders like to resolve the nomination early and move on to preparing for the general election.

• But critics charge that front-loading gives the advantage to well-known, established candidates who can raise large sums of money.



Strengths and Weaknesses of the Nomination Process

• Political Concerns– Political activists (those who regularly participate in

politics and are more interested and committed to particular issues and candidates than ordinary citizens) have gained much influence under the new process.

• Participation is low, so small groups of activists can exert more influence.

– Media has gained more influence• Interpret the results and frame the campaign as a

horserace/game orientation rather than a policy orientation• Focus on scandals, gaffes or feuds• Exaggerate the importance of many campaign events and

developments• Too involved in the process – too much interpretation/spin


Who Nominates the President?

• Before the contemporary nominating process was established, conventions used to choose the vice-president.– attempt to balance the ticket ideologically or

geographically– often the runner-up for the presidential

nomination– Today, the choice is completely in the hands

of the nominee.


The General Election for President

• Financing the General Election Campaign– 1970s to 1990s presidential funding was a

simple proposition: it was publicly funded– FEC would give major party candidates a

subsidy (and they would agree not to raise or spend any other money).

• The result: nominees of major parties would be adequately and equally funded.


Financing the General Election Campaign

• 1990s: Soft Money– Money contributed by interest groups, labor

unions and donors that is not subject to federal regulation because it is given to party committees (not to the candidates)

– Soft money to national party committees banned in 2004 but not banned if given to local or state party committees

– Other spending by groups aligned with parties increased



Spending in the General Election Campaign

• Most important category of general election spending is expenditures for “electronic media”– TV and radio advertising – mostly TV– Campaign advertising is important: it works– Research suggests that issue-content of ads has

increased in recent years.– Buy they have also grown increasingly negative.

• Negative ads seem to work for the candidates, but are they good for the public?

• Do they help create greater polarization in the campaign?


The Electoral College• The Constitution requires that the president and

vice president must be chosen by the Electoral College.

• Each state selects a number of electors equal to the sum of its House and Senate seats.

• D.C. gets three votes (23rd Amendment) for a total of 530 nationwide.

• The Candidate who wins the most popular votes may not become president because electoral votes are what matters.


The Electoral College• If no one receives a majority of the electoral vote, the

election is decided by the House of Representatives.– John Quincy Adams in 1824

• Winner take all voting system– Under state laws, the candidate who wins the state

receives all the state’s electoral votes (except in Maine and Nebraska).

– The candidate who wins a state by only a few votes gets all the electoral votes.

– This is why popular vote winner can lose the electoral college vote. Winning by large margins in a state gets you the same number of electoral college votes as winning by one vote.



Voting Behavior in Presidential Elections

• Candidates concentrate on states that are “up for grabs.”

• Pay less attention to: – states they cannot win, – and those they know they will win.

• How do they know which are which?

• There is considerable continuity in how citizens vote.


When Americans Decide

• Many people decide before the general election campaign begins.– One-third to one-half of the electorate reports

deciding how to vote before the primaries.– Another portion decides between the start of

the primaries and the end of the conventions.– So, roughly one-half to two-thirds know how

they will vote before the fall campaign begins.


How Americans Decide• Party loyalties

– Party identification: a persons subjective feeling of affiliation with a party

• Public Policies– Party images: a set of widely held associations

between a party and particular issues and values

• Government Performance– Retrospective voting – past performance– Prospective voting – policy promises

• Qualities of the Candidate



Limited Media Influence on Presidential Elections

• Media less influential in the general election campaign

• Many voters already have the information they need to make up their minds:– their own partisan identification– the candidate preferences of groups they like

or dislike– their impressions of government performance


The Contemporary Presidential Election Scene

• The Democratically-dominated New Deal party system splintered in the 1960s.

• Racial and social turmoil and Vietnam forced President Johnson, a Democrat, to withdraw from the race in 1968.

• Richard Nixon, a Republican, won two terms initiating a streak of Republican presidential winners.

• Not until the 1990s, were Democrats able to overcome their electoral problems and win the White House.



The 1970s and 1980s: Republican “Lock”• Lock reflected developments that gave

Republicans an advantage on two of the four major factors that determine how Americans vote– performance and issues– forced Democrats to defend unpopular policies and

eroded the longstanding advantage in party ID– brief recovery after Watergate: Carter victory– Republicans won three consecutive presidential

elections– Democrats went from the party of prosperity to the

party that was associated with being weak on defense and too liberal for the country’s general population.


The 1990s: Democratic Resurgence• In 1992 Clinton revived the Democratic Party.

How?– Recession rejuvenated the Democrats’ image as

party of prosperity– Cold War over and few foreign threats distracted

voters from the economy– Clinton distanced himself from those considered

radical leaders of groups.– He prayed and talked about family values, about

ending welfare, allowed capital punishment – he ran away from cultural-liberal image.

– Republicans quit running against the president and focused on electing Republicans to Congress to “check” the executive.


The 2000 Election• Given the long-standing importance of

government performance to voters, most political scientists thought Gore would win.

• But he lost. Why?– The vote for Gore was not as closely tied to the

administration’s record than in prior elections– Some argue Gore’s campaign did not emphasize the

peace and prosperity of the Clinton administration.– He distanced himself from scandal-plagued president,

but may have lost the positive benefits of a strongly performing administration.

– But Clinton’s personal ratings may have helped drag Gore down as well.


The 2004 Showdown• Most costly campaign in history• Result: Bush won a majority of the popular vote and a

majority of electoral vote.• While Bush won the largest number of popular votes in

history, Kerry followed with the second largest showing in history.

• Issues such as the war in Iraq, terrorism, jobs, and health care permeated the campaigns.

• Voters turned out in large numbers.• Republicans now control the Presidency, the House, and

the Senate by an increased margin.• Bush has claimed a mandate and the implication is that

he will push his agenda with the help of his partisans in Congress.



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Pearson Education, Inc. © 2005 Electing the President Chapter 10