PEI’s Changing Climate:Both Good and Bad

Adam FenechUPEI Climate

Rotary Club of SummersideJuly 17, 2012

1

What is sensitive to climate?

2

WEST NILE VIRUS

when Tmean>30°C, 90% Efficiency of Culex Pipiens to transmit West Nile virus to humans (Dohm et al., 2001)

3

SOUTHERN PINE BEETLE

when Tmin<-16°C, Dendroctonus frontalis is unable to survive a winter (Ungerrer et al., 1999)

4

PREMIUM GOLF DAYS

when daily Tmean>18°C and Tmean<28°C, * 80.7% where Pdaily >0 and <2.5mm, *64.7% where Pdaily >2.5mm and <5mm, *0 where Pdaily >10mm, and *0 where previous day’s Pdaily >20mm, people play golf(Scott and Jones ,2006)

5

CRIME

when daily Tmean=26°C, peak physical assaults (crime)reported in Toronto (Boyanowsky, 2007)

6

What is NOT sensitive to climate?

7

What is NOT sensitive to climate?

8

Has PEI’s Climate Changed in the

Past 100 years? Past 50 years? Past

30 years?

Warmer? Colder?

No Change?

Don’t Know!

Don’t Care!

9

1◦C

3

4

5

6

7

8

◦C

Annual Mean TemperatureCharlottetown, Prince Edward Island

1873 to 2011

Temperatures

Increases Mostly from Winter Night time Lows

3

1873

1883

1893

1903

1913

1923

1933

1943

1953

1963

1973

1983

1993

2003

Year

10

Monthly Temperatures – 100 Years Later

1.0

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.9

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

C

Difference between 1881-1910 and 1981-2010 in the Monthly Mean TemperaturesCharlottetown, Prince Edward Island

0.4 0.4

0.5

0.40.3

0.2

0.3

0.6

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

August

September

October

November

December

◦C

11

0

5

10

15

20

25

1873

1883

1893

1903

1913

1923

1933

1943

1953

1963

1973

1983

1993

2003

# of days Tmax> 27.5◦C

Year

Extreme Hot DaysCharlottetown, Prince Edward Island

1873 to 2011

Extreme Hot >27.5◦C

Over previous 138 years

1937 experienced most extreme hot days at 24

Extreme Cold DaysYear

0

5

10

15

20

25

1873

1883

1893

1903

1913

1923

1933

1943

1953

1963

1973

1983

1993

2003

# of days Tmin<-20◦C

Year

Extreme Cold DaysCharlottetown, Prince Edward Island

1873 to 2011

Extreme Cold <-20◦C

12

Is March 2012 the warmest March

in the past 30 years?

13

Is March 2012 the warmest March

in the past 30 years?

3

4

5

Differences from Climate Normal (1981-2010)in March Mean Temperatures

Charlottetown, PEI 1981 to 2012

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

◦C

Year

14

Has PEI’s Climate Changed in the

Past 100 years? Past 50 years? Past

30 years?

Wetter? Drier?

No Change?

Don’t Know!

Don’t Care!

15

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

19001873

1883

1893

1903

1913

1923

1933

1943

1953

1963

1973

1983

1993

2003

mm

Annual Total PrecipitationCharlottetown, Prince Edward Island

1873 to 2010

Ø(↓2%)

1873

1883

1893

1903

1913

1923

1933

1943

1953

1963

1973

1983

1993

2003

Year

PrecipitationNo real change over 138 years but much drier in past 30 years

16

0.00

0.10

0.20

0.30

Monthly PrecipitationCharlottetown, Prince Edward Island

1981 to 2010

Past 30 years, rain in prime summer months

has increased

-0.60

-0.50

-0.40

-0.30

-0.20

-0.10

0.00

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

% change

17

Past 30 years, rain in prime

growing months has decreased

18

Is this PEI’s driest

May/June/July on record?May/June/July on record?

19

Amount of rain from May 1 to July 10courtesy of CBC News

20

50

60

Premium Golf DaysCharlottetown, Prince Edward Island

1981 to 2010

13 days

21

0

10

20

30

40

1981 1991 2001

# of days

Year

Note: raw climate data used

Looking Into PEI’s Future

22

Temperatures in 100 years= Boston, Mass

23

Conclusions

• Climate influences everything!

• PEI climate changing “warmer and drier”

• Winter night-time lows driving temperature increase “climate change happens while you’re sleeping”

• Extreme hot days going up, while extreme cold days • Extreme hot days going up, while extreme cold days going down

• Premium golf days increased by almost two weeks over past 30 years (raw data)

• Future climate like Boston, Mass

24