PENELITIANPENELITIANHYPOTHETICO DEDUCTIVE HYPOTHETICO DEDUCTIVE

METHODMETHOD

Prof. Dr. Imam Ghozali, M.ComProf. Dr. Imam Ghozali, M.Com

Program S3 Ilmu EkonomiProgram S3 Ilmu Ekonomi

Universitas DiponegoroUniversitas Diponegoro

Observasi EmpirisSingular Statement

Describe (deskripsi)Explain (menjelaskan)Predict (meramalkan)

Induktif DeduktifNormatif & Positif

TEORIUniversal Statement

“ Metal Dipanaskan memuai”

BERPIKIR INDUKTIF DAN DEDUKTIF

Sifat Teori

Deskriptif Explain PrediksiJenis Penelitian

1. Exploratory Non-EmpirisFilsafat, SejarahEmpirisStudy Kasus,surveyEtnography

2. Uji Hipotesisa. Korelasi

EmpirisSurveyNon-eksperimen

b. Regresi EmpirisEksperimenSurvey

HUBUNGAN TEORI DAN PENELITIAN

Observation

PreliminaryData

Gathering

ProblemDefinition

TheoreticalFramework Hypotheses

ResearchDesign

DataCollectionAnalysis

Deduction

1

2

3

4

5 6 7

8

THE STEPS IN HYPOTHETICO DEDUCTIVE METHOD

Problem DefinitionProblem Definition

1. Latar Belakang Masalah (7- 10 hal)

- Theory Gap atau Research Gap

- Masalah Penelitian dapat berasal dari

a. Pengamatan empiris

b. Penelitian sebelumnya: replikasi, modifikasi atau pengembangan

Problem DefinitionProblem Definition

2. Perumusan Masalah- Diawali dengan problem statement (pernyataan masalah)- Diwujudkan dalam research question (pertanyaan penelitian) : What, How dan Why

3. Tujuan Penelitian- Menjawab masalah penelitian- Gunakan kata kerja dgn kognitif tinggi (menganalisis,

mengevaluasi)- Harus konsisten antara judul penelitian, latar belakang masalah, perumusan masalah, tujhuan penelitian dan hipotesis

A Comparison of Accounting Standards Setting in The International Environment And in The United States

Purpose of The Study

The primary purpose of this research study is to investigate the extent to whichExperience in establishing accounting standards in the United States can beUtilized in the developing the process of establishing international accountingStandards for the financial statement reporting of enterprises operating in the International environment.

Research Questions

The research was undertaken to answer the following primary researchQuestions:

What need for modifications to the process of establishingaccounting standards in the international environment canbe inferred from a comparison with the process of establishingaccounting standards in the united states?

The subsidiary research questions are:1. How are accounting standards currently established for the financial statement reporting of profit oriented United States enterprises?

2. How are international accounting standards currently established for the financial statement reporting of profit oriented enterprises?

3. What are the similarities and differences in the process of establishing accounting standards in the United States and on an international level?

4. What differences exist in the environment within which financial statement reporting takes place on an international level when compared with the United States?

Some common mistakes in problem Some common mistakes in problem formulationformulation

1. Collecting data without a well defined plan or purpose, hoping to make some sense out of it afterward.

2. Taking a “batch of data” that already exist and attempting to fit meaningful research questions to it.

3. Defining objectives in such general or ambiguous term that your interpretations and conclusions will be arbitrary and invalid.

4. Undertaking a research project without reviewing professional literature on the subject.

5. Ad hoc research, unique to a given situation, permitting no generalizations beyond the situation itself and making no contribution to the general body of educational research

Some common mistakes in problem Some common mistakes in problem formulationformulation

6. Failure to base research on a sound theoretical or conceptual framework, which would tie together the divergent masses of research into a systematic and comparative scheme, providing feed back and evaluation of educational theory.

7. Failure to make explicit and clear the underlying assumptions within your research so that it can be evaluated in terms of these foundations.

8. Failure to recognized the limitations in your approach, implied or explicit, that place restrictions on the conclusion and how they apply to other situations.

9. Failure to anticipate alternative rival hypotheses that would also account for given set findings and which challenge the interpretations and conclusions reached by the investigator.

Content of Theory

Concepts Definiton Proposition Abstract idea State meaning of the

conceptStatement about conceptOr relationship betweenconcept

Non-Variable Variable

Observe

Kinerja (ROA)Inflasi (IHK)

Un-observed

KERANGKA PEMIKIRAN TEORITIS

Suatu conceptual model untk menggambarkan hubungan antar variabel yg Telah diidentifkasi sebagai faktor penting yg berkaitan dg masalah penelitian

Skala Pengukuran VariabelSkala Pengukuran Variabel

Skala Kategori Peringkat Jarak Unique Origin

Nilai Tengah

Dispersi Test

signif

Nominal Ya Tdk Tdk Tdk Mode X2

Ordinal Ya Ya Tdk Tdk Median Inter-quartil

Deviasi

Rank

Order

Corr

Interval Ya Ya Ya Tdk Mean Standar

Deviasi

t, F

Ratio Ya Ya Ya Ya Mean Standar

Deviasi

t, F

KepuasanKerja

Dimensi

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Q8 Q9 Q10 Q11Indikator

Q1 = setujukah bahwa pekerjaan saudara membosankan ? STS TS N S SSQ4 = setujukah bahwa atasan saudara selalu menghargai pekerjaan saudara?Q8 = setujukah bahwa teman sekerja sudara selalu mendorong saudara?

UN-OBSERVED VARIABLE (LATENT VARIABLES)

JobAtasan Co

Worker

Jenis variabelJenis variabel

• Variabel Independen (bebas)/exogen

• Variabel Dependen (terikat)/ endogen

• Variabel Kontrol (umumnya demografi)

• Variabel Moderating (memperkuat atau memperlemah hubungan variabel dependen dan independen)

• Variabel Intervening atau mediating (variabel antara)

Reflective and Formative Indicator

Stress Stress

Stomachache

Headache tension Divorce Retired Bankcrupt

Reflective Indicator Formative Indicator

ROA

CAR

NPL

NIM

Independent Dependent

AgeSize

Control variables

ROA = b0 + b1CAR + b2NPL + b3NIM + e

ROA = b0 + b1CAR + b2NPL +b3NIM + b4Size + b5Age + e

We never hyphotese variable control

Path Analysis

Exogenous variable ξ (Ksi)= is not posses an antecendent varaiblesEndogenous variable η (Eta)= is posses an antecedent variablesIntervening /Mediating variable = is posses an antecedent as well as consequent variables (η1)Coefficient parameter from Exogenous to endogenous γ (gamma)Coefficient parameter from endogenous to endogeneus β (beta)

η1=γ1.1ξ1+γ1.2ξ2+ ζ1

η2= γ2.1ξ1+γ2.2ξ2+β2.1η1+ ζ2

Structural Equation Modeling

Measurement Model:ξ 1(Ksi) X1=λ1ξ1+d1X2=λ2ξ1+d2X3=λ3ξ1+d3

Structural Model:

η1=γ1.1ξ1+γ1.2ξ2+ ζ1

η2= γ2.1ξ1+γ2.2ξ2+β2.1η1+ ζ2

Numbers ofBooks read

ParentConditionilliterate

Capability ofreading

X Y

Z

Y = b0 +b1X + b2Z*X+ e

Y= b0 + b1X + b2Z +b3Z*X + e

Moderating Variables

A B

A and B as Shoes CompanyIf I have to setup MIS in company A, is it also applicable for company B

According Universal theory, yes it also can be applied as well at company B

But according to Contingency theory can not be applied to B since company BHas its own situational or contextual factors that might be different from A,

The contingency variables are:1. Environment uncertainty2. Technology3. Organizational structure4. Strategy5. Culture

Universal vs Contingency Theory

PartisipasiAnggaran

KinerjaManajerial

PartispasiAnggaran

KinerjaManajerial

Motivasi

PartisipasiAnggaran

Motivasi

KinerjaManajerial

Indepeden Dependen

IndependenDependen

ModeratingIndependen Dependen

Intervening

HypothesesHypotheses

• A Special type of proposition that represents conjecture about concepts stated in empirically testable form.

• Is derived from a proposition by linking one or more constitutively defined concepts with the empirical indicators identified in the operational definition.

• Proposisi: suatu pernytaan tentang konsep yang dapat dinilai benar atau salah jika dikaitkan dengan fenomena.

• Jika proposisi ini dirumuskan untuk pengujian empiris, maka disebut hipotesis

HypothesesHypotheses• Hipotesis sering juga digambarkan sebagai suatu pernyataan dimana kita

mengkaitkan variabel kepada kasus. Kasus adalah entity atau sesuatu yang sedang dibahas dalam hipotesis.

• Hipotesis dapat dibedakan menjadiA. Hipotesis deskriptif (descriptive hypotheses): yaitu proposisi yang

menyatakan tentang keberadaan, ukuran, bentuk, atau distribusi suatu variabel.

Kota-kota di Amerika mengalami kesulitan anggaran. Kota-kota = kasus Kesulitan anggaran= variabel

Delapan puluh persen pemegang saham PT XYZ menyukai kenaikan deviden kas.

PT XYZ= kasus Sikap pemegang saham yang menghendaki kenaikan deviden= variabel

HypothesesHypotheses

• Beberapa peneliti lebih senang menggunakan pertanyaan penelitian daripada hipotesis deskriptif.

Apakah kota-kota di Amerika mengalami kesulitan anggaran? Apakah para pemegang saham PT XYZ menyukai kenaikan deviden

kas?B. Hipotesis Relational : merupakan pernyataan yang menggambarkan

hubungan antara dua variabel dalam kaitannya dengan suatu kasus

Mobil impor dipandang memiliki kualitas yang lebih baik oleh konsumen Indonesia dibandingkan dengan mobil buatan dalam negeri.

Konsumen = kasus Negara asal dan kualitas = variabel

HypothesesHypotheses

• Hipotesis relational dapat berbentuk:1. Hubungan korelasi: tdk ada hubungan sebab-akibat Masinis muda (umur<35th) lebih rendah produktivitasnya

dibandingkan masinis yang berumur 35th atau lebih.2. Hubungan sebab-akibat: dalam hal ini adanya

perubahan satu variabel akan mempengaruhi variabel lainnya.

Adanya kenaikan pendapatan keluarga akan meningkatkan prosentase pendapatan yang ditabung.

HypothesesHypotheses

• Bentuk baku hipotesis• Null Hypotheses (H0)

Tidak ada beda antara x dan y Tidak ada asosiasi/korelasi antara x dan y Tidak ada pengaruh x terhadap y• Alternative Hypotheses (HA) Ada beda antara x dan y Ada asosiasi/korelasi antara x dan y Ada pengaruh x terhadap y• Hipotesis yang baik hrs memenuhi tiga hal:a. Memenuhi tujuan penelitianb. Dapat diujic. Lebih baik dari rivalnya.

ExternalEnvironmentUncertainty

OrganizationalIndependence

OrganizationalStructure:

Decentralization

PerceivedUsefulnessOf MAS:1. Scope2. Timeliness3. Aggregation4. Integration

The Impact of Structure, Environment, and Interdependence on The PerceivedUsefullness of management Accounting System

Robert H Chenhall and Degan MorrisThe Accounting Review Vol LXI No 1 January 1986

Moderating

Hipotesis PenelitianHipotesis Penelitian

• H1: There is a direct relationship between the perceived usefulness of the MAS characteristic of broad scope and the three contextual variable of 1)decentralization, 2) perceived environment uncertainty, 3) organizational interdependence.

• H2: There is direct relationship between the perceived usefulness of the MAS characteristic of timeliness and the contextual variable of PEU.

• H3: There is direct relationship between the perceived usefulness of the MAS characteristic of aggregation and the two contextual variables of 1) decentralization, and 2) PEU

Hipotesis PenelitianHipotesis Penelitian

• H4: There is direct relationship between the perceived usefulness of the MAS characteristic of integration and the two contextual variables of 1) decentralization, and 2) organizational interdependence.

• H5: There is an indirect relationship between the perceived usefulness of the two MAS characteristic of 1) broad scope and 2)aggregation, and PEU acting through decentralization.

• H6: There is an indirect relationship between the perceived usefulness of the two MAS characteristic of 1) broad scope and 2) integration, and OI acting through decentralization.

BudgetingSystem

Characteristics

SituationalCharacteristics-Production Technology-Market factors-Organizational Characteristics

OrganizationalPerformance

Influences on Departemental Budgeting: An Empirical Examination ofA Contingency Model

Kenneth A merchantAccounting, Organizational and Society Vol 9 1984

Hipotesis PenelitianHipotesis Penelitian

• Production technolgy and budgetingH1: Department with productive technology that are

relatively routine and repetitive tend to place greater emphasis on formal budgeting.

• Market factors and budgetingH2: Department with predominantly in the earlier stages of

product life cycle (emerging, growth) tend to place less emphasis on formal budgeting than do departments with products predominantly in the later stage (mature, declining).

H3: Department with a relatively strong market position tend to place greater emphasis on formal budgeting.

Hipotesis PenelitianHipotesis Penelitian

• Organizational characteristics and budgeting.

H4: Larger, more diverse department tend to place greater emphasis on formal budgeting.

• Effects on organizational performance

H5: Organizational performance tend to be higher where there is a “fit” between the use of budgeting and the situational factors as described in Hypotheses 1 -4

Macro StrategyVariable

Micro StrategyVariable

Organizatioanlstructure

FirmPerformance

Industry Technological Sophistication

The Effect of Technological Sophistication on Strategic Profiles,Structure and Firm Performance

Jeffrey G Covin and E PrescotJournal of Management Studies 27:5

September 1990

Hipotesis PenelitianHipotesis Penelitian

• H1: Small firms in high-tech industries have mission strategies which are more build-oriented than are those of small firms in low-tech industries.

• H2: Small firms in high-tech industries have strategic postures which are more entrepreneurial than are those of small firms in low-tech industries.

• H3: Small firms in high-tech industries have structures which are more organic than are those small firms in low-tech industries.

• H4: Small firms in high-tech industries perform better than do small firms in low-tech industries.

Degree ofdiversification

Diversificationstrategy

Mode ofdiversification

Performance:-return-risk- other

Industry structure-Concentration-Barrier to entry-Capital intensity-Growth

OrganizationalFactor:Structure,culturesystem

Moderating

Diversification and Performance: Critical Review and Future Directions

Deepak K Datta and Nandini RajagopalanJournal of Management Studies 28:5 September 1991

Competitiveness InstrumentalityRole ambiguity Role Conflict

Effort

Performance Satisfaction

The Effect of Effort on Sales Performance and Job SatisfactionBy Steven P. Brown and Robert A Peterson

Journal of Marketing Vol 58, April 1994

ParticipativeStd setting

Std Tightness

Std BasedIncentive

Job RelatedStress

JobPerformance

The Design and Effects of Contriol System : Test of Indirect ModelsBy: Michael D Shields; F Johny Deng and Yutaka kato

Accounting, Organization and Society 25 2000

Setting Penelitian

Laboratory Setting Field Setting

Laboratory Research Field Research

Laboratory Experiment Field Field Experiment Study

Common Type of Dependent Measure of Variables in Accounting Research

Behavioral Measures Self Report Measure

Frequency Latency Number ofOf respond errors

Rating Scale

Likert ScaleAttitude measurement

Research involvesMeasurement

Established measures Develop own measureThrough literture review

Validity and Reliability Need to test for validityKnown and reliability

Desain PenelitianDesain Penelitian

• Non-Experimental Quasi-Experimental DesignBased on correlational

research strategy- Observational research- Case study research- Content analysis- Survey research- Quasi-experimental

• Experimental DesignBased on experimental

research strategy- Simple experiment- Multiple group

experiment- Field experiment

• Quasi experimental design if the data come from an environment which existed or Or events that occurred without his direct intervention.• True experiment design if he is (1) able to manipulate explicitly one or more inde pendent variables, (2) to assign subject to control or experimental groups (basically to achieve randomization)

Sampling MethodSampling Method

• Unit analisis:

1. individuals groups artifacts (books, photos, newspapers)

2. geographical units (town, census tract, state) .

3. social interactions (dyadic relations, divorces, arrests)

PopulasiPersh Go Public

Di BEJ350 persh

Mean

VarianceStd Dev

Mean

Variance

Std. Dev

Sample60 persh

Probabilitas

Probability Sampling

Probability SamplingProbability Sampling

• Simple random sampling:

1. Lotere

2. Tabel Random

• Complex Random Sampling:

1. Systematic random sampling

2. Stratified random sampling

3. Cluster random sampling

Non-Probability SamplingNon-Probability Sampling

• Convenience sampling

• Purposive sampling

• Judgemnetal sampling

Kesalahan Sampling:

Type I error (alpha): salah padahal benar

Type II error (beta): benar padahal salah

Menentukan Besarnya SampleMenentukan Besarnya Sample

• Ada 3 faktor yang mempengaruhi sample size:a. Variance atau heteroginitas dari populasi (S)b. Besarnya acceptable error (E)c. Confidence level (Zc.i)• Menentukan besarnya sample:a. Estimate std dev populasi (kasar 1/6 dari

range)b. Lakjukan judgment tdp kesalahan yang

diinginkan.c. Tentukan confidence intervalnya

Perhitungan besarnya samplePerhitungan besarnya sample

• Rumus : n= (ZS/E)2

Dimana:

Z = nilai cofidence level

S = std dev. Sample atau populasi

E = nilai accepted error, plus atau minus error factor (one half total confidence interval)

Perhitungan besarnya samplePerhitungan besarnya sample

• Seorang peneiliti ingin meneliti pengeluaran untuk lipstick dan menginginkan besarnya confidence level 95% (Z) dengan range kesalahan (E) kurang dari $2 dengan standar deviasi $29n = (ZS/E)2 = [(1.96)(29)/$2)]2= 808, jika error range menjadi $4 ,maka samplen = [(1.96)(29)/$4)]2 = 202

Uji Kualitas DataUji Kualitas Data

• Uji Reliabilitas atau konsistensi : cronbach alpha

• Uji validitas :

a. Bivariate korelasi

b. Analisis faktor

• Uji Non response bias

Metode Analisis DataMetode Analisis Data

• Metode Dependen: menguji ada tidaknya hubungan dua set variabel. Satu variabel adalah variabel bebas (independen) dan satu variabel adalah variabel terikat (dependen). Tujuan metode dependen menentukan apakah variabel bebas mempengaruhi variabel terikat.

• Metode Interdependen:jika set data yang ada tidak mungkin dikelompokkan kedalam variabel bebas dan terikat, maka yang dapat dilakukan adalah mengidentifikasi bagaimana dan mengapa variabel tersebut saling berkaitan satu sama lain.

Teknik Analisis DataTeknik Analisis Data

Variabel terikat Variabel Bebas Teknik Analisis

1. Satu metrik

2. Satu metrik

3. Satu metrik

4. Dua atau lebih metrik

Satu non-metrik

Dua kategori

Satu non metrik

>dua kategori

Dua non metrik

>Dua kategori

Satu atau lebih non metrik

Uji Beda t-test

Analysis of variance

(ANOVA) –one way Anova

Two way Anova

Multivariate analysis of variance (Manova)

Teknik Analisis DataTeknik Analisis Data

Variabel terikat Variabel bebas Teknik Analisis

5. Satu metrik

6. Satu non metrik

7. Dua atau lebih metrik

Dua atau lebih metrik dan non metrik

Dua atau lebih metrik dan non metrik

Dua atau lebih metrik

Multiple Regression

Analisis Diskriminan

Logistic regression

Structural equation Modelling (SEM)