Pengambilan Keputusan

Chapter 26

Mata kuliah : J0754 - Pengelolaan Organisasi EntrepreneurialDosen Pembuat : D3122 - Rudy AryantoTahun : 2009

Learning Objectives– Define the terms programmed decision and

nonprogrammed decision– Describe the process of decision making– Discuss the major behavioral influences on the process

of decision making– Compare group decision making and individual decision

making– Identify the methods managers can use

to stimulate creativity in group decision making

Decision Making

The quality of managerial decisions is the yardstick of a manager’s effectiveness

Decision Making• This chapter analyzes decision making as a

consequence of information people receive through the…– Organizational structure – Behavior of important persons– Behavior of important groups

Types of Decisions• Programmed decisions

– Specific procedures developed for repetitive and routine problems.

• Nonprogrammed decisions– Required by unique and complex management problems

Decision Type Comparison

Reorganization of state government agencies.

Merit system for promotion of state employees.

Example:Government

Diversification into new products and markets.

Periodic reorders of inventory.Example:Business

Necessity for creativity, intuition, tolerance for ambiguity, creative problem solving.

Dependence on policies, rules, and definite procedures.

Procedure

Novel, unstructured. Much uncertainty regarding cause and effect relationships.

Frequent, repetitive, routine. Much certainty regarding cause and effect relationships.

Problem

Nonprogrammed DecisionsProgrammed Decisions

Reorganization of state government agencies.

Merit system for promotion of state employees.

Example:Government

Diversification into new products and markets.

Periodic reorders of inventory.Example:Business

Necessity for creativity, intuition, tolerance for ambiguity, creative problem solving.

Dependence on policies, rules, and definite procedures.

Procedure

Novel, unstructured. Much uncertainty regarding cause and effect relationships.

Frequent, repetitive, routine. Much certainty regarding cause and effect relationships.

Problem

Nonprogrammed DecisionsProgrammed Decisions

Decision Making

Decision – Means to achieve some result or to solve some problem.

Every decision is the outcome of a process that is influenced by many forces.

The Decision-Making Process

Establishing specific goals & objectives and measuring resultsEstablishing specific goals & objectives and measuring results

Identifying problemsIdentifying problems

Developing alternativesDeveloping alternatives

Choosing an alternativeChoosing an alternative

Implementing the decisionImplementing the decision

Controlling and evaluatingControlling and evaluating

Evaluating alternativesEvaluating alternatives

Revise

Revise

Revise

Revise

Revise

Revise

Goals, Objectives, & Evaluation

• Goals and objectives are needed wherever performance influences effectiveness– Which results must be achieved?– Which measures show if those results have been

achieved?

• Top management must communicate tolerance for experimentation and failure by subordinates

Identifying Problems

• A necessary condition for a decision is a problem

Identifying Problems• Identifying the exact problem can be hindered by

certain factors– Perceptual problems– Defining problems in terms of solutions– Identifying symptoms as problems

Developing Alternatives• Before a decision is made…

– Feasible alternatives should be developed– The consequences of each considered

• The number of alternatives developed is limited by time and cost constraints– Too few alternatives can wind up costing even more

time and resources

• Scenario analysis lets managers…– Compensate for tunnel vision– Uncover more alternatives

Evaluating Alternatives• The objective of decision making

– Selecting the alternative that will produce the most favorable outcome

• The alternative-outcome relationship is based on three possible conditions– Certainty– Uncertainty– Risk

Choosing an Alternative• An alternative is selected to solve a problem

in order to achieve a predetermined objective– An alternative rarely achieves the objective without having

an impact on another objective

• The values of the decision maker strongly influence the alternative chosen

• The decision maker is often a satisfier, rather than an optimizer– It is often impossible to identify all alternatives

Implementing the Decision• Any decision that is not implemented is just an

abstraction– Implementation may be more important than the actual

choice of the alternative

• Implementing decisions almost always involves people– A technically sound decision can be undermined by

dissatisfied subordinates– Solutions must be transformed into behavior

Control and Evaluation• Effective management involves periodic

measurement of results– Without a measurable objective, there is no way to judge

performance

• Changes, if necessary, must be made in– The solution chosen– Its implementation– The original objective

• Once a decision is implemented, don’t assume the outcome will meet the objective

Behavioral Influences on Decision Making

• These factors influence the decision-making process…– Ethics– Values– Personality– Propensity for risk– Potential for dissonance– Escalation of commitment

Ethical Decision Making• Ethics helps individuals evaluate alternatives in

terms of right and wrong

• Unethical decisions and behavior can lead to:– Distrust– Conflict– A less productive work environment

Workplace Misconduct• Common types of misconduct

– Lying to supervisors– Drug or alcohol abuse– Lying or falsifying records– Conflicts of interest– Stealing or theft– Misrepresenting information

to supervisors

• Factors that exert influence over ethical decisions…– Gender– Moral philosophy– Education– Work experience– Age – Awareness

Factors Influencing Ethical Decisions

Factors Influencing Ethical Decisions

• On the group level…– Significant others within the organization influence peers

and coworkers

• At the organizational level…– Culture and climate directly influence individual decision

making

• A code of ethics raises employees’ awareness of ethical behavior

Instilling Ethical Values• Texas Instruments suggests that managers think

before acting:– Is the action legal?– Does it comply with our values?– If you do it, will you feel bad?– How will it look in the newspaper?– If you know it’s wrong, don’t do it!– If you’re not sure, ask.– Keep asking until you get an answer

Values and Decision Making• Values have a profound impact on:

– Establishing objectives

– Developing alternatives

– Choosing an alternative

– Implementing a decision

– Control and evaluation

Personality and Decision Making• Three types of variables effect the decision

making process:– Personality variables: the attitudes,

beliefs, and needs of the individual– Situational variables: external, observable situations in

which individuals find themselves– Interactional variables: the individual’s momentary state

that results from the interaction of a specific situation with the individual’s personality

Personality and Decision Making• Conclusions about the influence of personality on

decision-making – One person is unlikely to be equally proficient

in all aspects of the decision-making process

– Characteristics, like intelligence, are linked with different phases of the decision-making process

– The relationship of personality to the decision-making process may vary for different groups

– Those facing important and ambiguous decisions may be influenced heavily by peers’ opinions

Propensity for Risk• Decision makers with low aversion

to risk– Establish different objectives– Evaluate alternatives differently– Select different alternatives

• There is a fine line between– Making ill-conceived, arbitrary decisions based on instinct

(low aversion)– Becoming obsessed with numbers, analyses, and reports

(high aversion)

Propensity for Risk• The amount of risk in a decision depends on

answers to these questions

– Have clear goals been established?

– Is information about possible alternatives known?

– Have future outcomes associated with the possible alternatives been identified?

Framework for Classifying Decisions

Characteristics of Decision Certainty Risk Uncertainty

Goals are clearly established Yes Yes Yes

Information about possible alternatives is available

Yes Yes No

Future outcomes associated with the alternative are understood

Yes Yes No

Low HighProbability of Failure

Potential for Dissonance• Dissonance is post-decision anxiety

– There is often a lack of consistency, or harmony, among an individual’s cognitions after a decision is made

– The decision maker has doubts and second thoughts about the choice

Potential for Dissonance• Intensity of the anxiety is greater under these

conditions– The decision is psychologically and/or financially

important– There are a number of forgone alternatives– The forgone alternatives have many favorable features

Potential for Dissonance• Dissonance can be reduced by…

– Seeking information that supports the wisdom of the decision

– Selectively perceiving information in a way that supports the decision

– Adopting a less favorable view of forgone alternatives– Minimizing the negative aspects of the decision and

exaggerating the positive aspects

Escalation of Commitment• Occurs when a decision maker adheres to a

course of action– Even when confronted with negative information about

the viability of that course of action

Escalation of Commitment• Self-justification theory

– Decision makers escalate commitment because they don’t want to admit that prior resources were not allocated properly

– They do not want to admit they were wrong

• Self-monitoring and feedback reduce potential cognitive distortion

Group Decision Making• Becoming more common because…

– Nonprogrammed decisions involve more uncertainty– Increasing complexity requires specialized knowledge in

numerous fields– Decisions must eventually be accepted and

implemented by many units within the organization

Individual vs. Group Decision Making

• Groups– Take longer to reach decisions– Consensus decisions superior to individual, majority

vote, and leader decisions

• Negative aspects– Pressure to conform– Reluctance to accept outside assistance– Best results with nonprogrammed decisions

Individual vs. Group Decision Making

• Establishing objectives– Groups are superior to individuals because of the

greater pool of knowledge

• Identifying alternatives– Efforts of individual group members encourage a broad

search in various functional areas of the organization

• Evaluating alternatives– Collective judgment of the group, with its wider range of

viewpoints, is superior to that of the individual decision maker

Individual vs. Group Decision Making

• Choosing an alternative– Group interaction and consensus results in the

acceptance of more risk– A group decision is more likely to be accepted due to the

participation of those affected by its consequences

• Implementing a decision– Usually accomplished by individual managers

Relationship Between Quality of Group Decision and Method Utilized

More

Less

Probable Quality of Decision

Individual AverageIndividual

MinorityControl

Majoritycontrol

Consensus

Method of Utilization of Group Resources

Stimulating Group Creativity

Brainstorming

Delphi Process

Nominal Group Technique (NGT)

Brainstorming• Promotes creativity by encouraging idea

generation through non-critical discussion• Basic rules

– No idea is too ridiculous– Each idea presented belongs to the

group, not to the person stating it– No idea can be criticized

Delphi Process• Involves…

– Soliciting and comparing anonymous judgments on the topic of interest

– Uses sequential questionnaires interspersed with summarized information and feedback from earlier responses

• Advantages of this process– Removes the biasing effects of face-to-face interaction– Multiple judges

Studies show no significant change after the second round of estimation

Nominal Group Technique (NGT)– 7-10 people convene to solve a problem

– Each person generates ideas in writing

– After 5 minutes, each person presents one idea

– A designated recorder writes the ideas on a flip chart in full view of the group

– This continues until there are no more new ideas

– There is no discussion

– Each person privately ranks the ideas in order of preference– The group decision is the mathematically pooled outcome of the

votes

Delphi Process vs. NGT

Delphi

• Participants are typically anonymous

• Participants are physically distant and never meet

• Communication is via written questionnaires and feedback

NGT

Participants become acquainted

Participants meet face-to-face around a table

Participants communicate directly