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Penny for Your Thoughts - Jeff Gundlach
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5/24/2018 Penny for Your Thoughts - Jeff Gundlach
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LiveWebcasthostedby:
JeffreyGundlach
ChiefExecutiveOfficer
June10,2014
PennyFor
Your
Thoughts
5/24/2018 Penny for Your Thoughts - Jeff Gundlach
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5/24/2018 Penny for Your Thoughts - Jeff Gundlach
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Performance
2
DoubleLineTotalReturnBondFund QuarterEndingMarch31,2014
Performancedata
quoted
represents
past
performance;
past
performance
does
not
guarantee
future
results.
The
investment
return
and
principal
valueofaninvestmentwillfluctuatesothataninvestor'sshares,whenredeemed,maybeworthmoreorlessthantheoriginalcost.Current
performanceofthefundmaybelowerorhigherthantheperformancequoted.Performancedatacurrenttothemostrecentmonthendmaybe
obtainedbycalling2136338200orbyvisitingwww.doublelinefunds.com.
BarclaysUSAggregateIndexrepresentssecuritiesthatareSECregistered,taxable,anddollardenominated.Theindexcoversthe USinvestmentgradefixedrate
bondmarket,withindexcomponentsforgovernmentandcorporatesecurities,mortgagepassthroughsecurities,andassetbackedsecurities.Thesemajorsectors
aresubdividedintomorespecificindicesthatarecalculatedandreportedonaregularbasis.Itisnotpossibletoinvestinanindex.
PastPerformancedoesnotguaranteefutureresults.Indexperformanceisnotillustrativeoffundperformance.*IfaFundinvestedinanaffiliateFundsponsoredbytheAdviserduringtheperiodcoveredbythisreporttheAdviseragreed to notchargeamanagement feetotheFundinanamountequaltothe
investmentadvisory
fees
paid
by
the
affiliated
Fund
in
respect
of
the
Funds
investment
in
the
affiliated
fund
to
avoid
duplicate
charge
of
the
investment
advisory
fees
to
the
investors.
QuarterEnd
March31,2014
1Q
2014
1YearAnnualized
3YearAnnualized
SinceInceptionAnnualized
(4610to33114)
Ishare 2.40% 1.13% 6.16% 9.34%
Nshare 2.24% 0.88% 5.87% 9.06%
BarclaysU.S.
AggregateIndex 1.84% 0.10% 3.75% 4.25%
AsofMarch31,2014 IShare NShare
GrossSEC30DayYield 4.77% 4.51%
NetSEC30DayYield* 4.74% 4.49%
AsofMarch31,2014 IShare NShare
GrossExpenseRatio 0.48% 0.73%
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Performance
3
DoubleLineCoreFixedIncomeFund QuarterEndingMarch31,2014
Performancedataquotedrepresentspastperformance;pastperformancedoesnotguaranteefutureresults. Theinvestmentreturnandprincipalvalueofaninvestmentwillfluctuatesothataninvestor'sshares,whenredeemed,maybeworthmoreorlessthantheoriginalcost.Current
performanceofthefundmaybelowerorhigherthantheperformancequoted.Performancedatacurrenttothemostrecentmonthendmaybe
obtainedbycalling2136338200orbyvisitingwww.doublelinefunds.com.
PastPerformancedoesnotguaranteefutureresults.Indexperformanceisnotillustrativeoffundperformance.
*IfaFundinvestedinanaffiliateFundsponsoredbytheAdviserduringtheperiodcoveredbythisreporttheAdviseragreed to notchargeamanagementfeetotheFundinanamountequaltothe
investmentadvisoryfeespaidbytheaffiliatedFundinrespectoftheFundsinvestmentintheaffiliatedfundtoavoidduplicatechargeoftheinvestmentadvisoryfeestotheinvestors.
QuarterEnd
March31,2014
1Q
20141Year
Annualized
3YearAnnualized
SinceInceptionAnnualized
(6110to33114)
Ishare 2.73% 1.03% 6.17% 7.41%
Nshare 2.57% 0.77% 5.88% 7.14%
BarclaysU.S.
AggregateIndex 1.84% 0.10% 3.75% 3.76%
AsofMarch31,2014 IShare NShare
GrossSEC30DayYield 4.00% 3.75%
NetSEC
30
Day
Yield* 4.03% 3.78%
AsofMarch31,2014 IShare NShare
GrossExpenseRatio 0.51% 0.76%
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UpcomingWebcastAnnouncements
SamGarza
June
24,
2014
MultiAssetGrowth
Gotowww.doublelinefunds.com,HomepageunderEvents
2014WebcastScheduletoregister
1:15pmPDT/4:15pmEDT
PhilipBarach July8,2014
LowDuration
Gotowww.doublelinefunds.com,HomepageunderEvents
2014WebcastScheduletoregister
1:15pmPDT/4:15pmEDT
LuzPadilla July22,2014
EmergingMarketsFixedIncome
Gotowww.doublelinefunds.com,HomepageunderEvents
2014WebcastScheduletoregister
1:15pmPDT/4:15pmEDT
ToReceivePresentationSlides:
Youcanemail
4
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LiveWebcasthostedby:
JeffreyGundlach
ChiefExecutiveOfficer
June10,2014
PennyFor
Your
Thoughts
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TABI
CurrencyDebasement
http://www.history.com/news/10thingsyoudidntknowaboutthepenny
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7
RomanCurrencyDebasement240CE 270CE
Source:http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roman_currency#Debasement_of_the_currency
CE=Christian
Era/Common
Era
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8
RomanDebasement64CE 270CE
Source:http://www.tulane.edu/~august/handouts/601cprin.htm
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9
U.S.DebasementJanuary1,1913 December31,2009
Source:http://www.zerohedge.com/news/41yearsafterdeathgoldstandardlookhowweendedeconomicpurgatory
FDR=Franklin
Delano
Roosevelt,
U.S.
President
1933
1945.
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10
1910vs.TodayPurchasingPower
Source:NewYorkTimes,NewFactsontheIncreasedCostofLiving?,March27,1910.DoubleLine
June30,1910throughDecember31,2013
In
1910
the
price
for
a
gallon
of
milk
was
$0.04
to
$0.05 Today,agallonofmilkis$3.19
Thats4.3%annualchangeoverthepast104yearsandleaves$1of1910moneyworth$0.01today
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11
U.S.Dollarvs.RomanDebasement
Source:http://www.zerohedge.com/news/41yearsafterdeathgoldstandardlookhowweendedeconomicpurgatory
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12
U.S.HalfPenny
Source:Wikipedia
TheHalfCentwasauthorizedforproductionbytheCoinageActof1792
ItwasdiscontinuedbytheCoinageActof1857
TheHalfCentwasoneofseveralcoinsestablishedbytheCoinageActestablishedbytheU.S.Mint:
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HowMuchLongerWilltheU.S.DollarRemainthe
ReserveCurrencyoftheWorld?
13
Atleast40centralbankshaveinvestedintheYuanandseveralothersarepreparingtodoso,putting
themainlandcurrencyonthepathtoreservestatusevenbeforefullconvertibility
Jukka Pihlman,StandardChartered
94Years(1921???)
Source:http://www.zerohedge.com/news/20131013/guestposthowmuchlongerwilldollarbereservecurrency
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ChineseYuanAppearstobeonitsWayToward
ReserveCurrencyStatus
14January1,2001throughDecember31,2013
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Source:Bianco Research
Bitcoin =isapeertopeer paymentsystemintroducedasopensourcesoftwarein2009bydeveloperSatoshiNakamoto.[4] Thepaymentsinthesystemarerecordedinapublic
ledgerusing
its
own
unit
of
account,[5] which
is
also
called
bitcoin.[note1] The
bitcoin system
has
no
central
repository
and
no
single
administrator,
which
has
led
the
US
Treasuryto
callbitcoin adecentralizedvirtualcurrency.[8
XBTCurncy =Bitcoin CurrencyspotpriceinBloomberg.
Bitcoin SpotPriceJanuary1,2013throughJune3,2014
15
VirtualCu
rrency/Cruptocurrency
VirtualCurr
ency/Cruptocurrency
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TABII
U.S.Interest
Rates
and
Demographics
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FederalReserveistheLargestHolderofUSDebt
http://www.ritholtz.com/blog/2013/10/allholdersofustreasurydebt/
Source:BarryRitholtz,TheBigPicture,AllHoldersofUSDebt,October11,201317
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U.S.RealGDPForecast
November15,
2012
through
May
29,
2014
Source:Bianco Research
GDP=The
gross
domestic
product
is
The
monetary
value
of
all
the
finished
goods
and
services
produced
within
acountry's
borders
in
aspecific
time
period,
though
GDP
is
usuallycalculatedonanannualbasis.RealGDP=Isamacroeconomicmeasureofthevalueofeconomicoutputadjustedforpricechanges(i.e.inflationordeflation).The
adjustmenttransformsthemoneyvaluemeasure,nominalGDPintoanindexorquantityortotaloutput. 18
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TimingatWhichRateThresholdisReached
19Note:Minack Advisors,January1,2012throughMay31,2014.JuneandJuly2014areforecasts.
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20
3MonthEurodollarFuturesNetOpenInterestMay15,1987 May20,2014
Source:U.S.CommoditiesFuturesTradingCommissions(CFTC),DoubleLineCapital.Eurodollar=U.S. dollardenominateddeposits atforeignbanksorforeignbranchesofAmerican
banks.BylocatingoutsideoftheU.S.,EurodollarsescaperegulationbytheFederalReserveBoard.
LargeSpeculators:NonCommercialTradingentitythatreportspositionstotheU.S.CommoditiesFuturesTradingCommissions(CFTC)
SmallSpeculators:NonCommercialTradingentitythatdoesnotreportpositionstotheCFTC
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
3MonthEurodollarFuturesNetOpenIntere
st
May15,1
987
May20,2014
SmallSpeculatorsNet
LargeSpeculatorsNet
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21
5YearUSTreasuryFuturesNetOpenInterestMay15,1987 May20,2014
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
FiveYearUSTreasuryFutureNetOpenInterest
May15,1987
May20,2014
SmallSpeculatorsNet
LargeSpeculatorsNet
Source:U.S.CommoditiesFuturesTradingCommissions(CFTC),DoubleLineCapital
LargeSpeculators:NonCommercialTradingentitythatreportspositionstotheU.S.CommoditiesFuturesTradingCommissions(CFTC)
SmallSpeculators:NonCommercialTradingentitythatdoesnotreportpositionstotheCFTC
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22
10YearUSTreasuryFuturesNetOpenInterestMay15,1987 May20,2014
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
10YearUSTreasuryFutureNetOpenIn
terest
May15,1987
May20,2014
SmallSpeculatorsNet
LargeSpeculatorsNet
Source:U.S.CommoditiesFuturesTradingCommissions(CFTC),DoubleLineCapital
LargeSpeculators:
Non
Commercial
Trading
entity
that
reports
positions
to
the
U.S.
Commodities
Futures
Trading
Commissions
(CFTC)
SmallSpeculators:NonCommercialTradingentitythatdoesnotreportpositionstotheCFTC
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23
15+YearUSTreasuryFuturesNetOpenInterestMay15,1987 May20,2014
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
15+YearUSTreasu
ryFutureNetOpenIntere
st
May151987
May20,2014
SmallSpeculatorsNet
LargeSpeculatorsNet
Source:U.S.CommoditiesFuturesTradingCommissions(CFTC),DoubleLineCapital
LargeSpeculators:
Non
Commercial
Trading
entity
that
reports
positions
to
the
U.S.
Commodities
Futures
Trading
Commissions
(CFTC)
SmallSpeculators:NonCommercialTradingentitythatdoesnotreportpositionstotheCFTC
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GlobalRealRates(10yrminusCPI)
June1,2008throughJune3,2014
Source:Bloomberg
USGG10Y
=
US
generic
10
Year
US
Treasury.
GTJP10Y
=
Japanese
generic
10
year
Treasury.
GTAUD10Y
=
Australian
generic
10
Y
Treasury.
GTESP10Y
=
Spanish
generic
10
year
Treasury.
GTDEM10
=
Germangeneric10yearTreasury.CPI=ConsumerPriceIndex.CPI=ConsumerPriceIndexproducesmonthlydataonchangesinthepricespaidbyurbanconsumersforarepresentativebasketof
goodsandservices.Aninvestmentcannotbemadeinanindexdirectly.Pleaseseeappendixforindexdefinitions
24
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U.S.DollarIndexSpotDecember31,2007throughJune10,2014
Source:BloombergFinancialServices,DoubleLineCapitalLP
DXY=DXY
is
the
US
Dollar
Index
(USDX)
indicates
the
general
value
of
the
US
dollar.
Average
exchange
rates
between
the
US
dollar
and
six
major
world
currencies.
Aninvestmentcannotbemadedirectlyinanindex.25
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Source:Bianco Research
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
LaborForceParticipationRate
January1948throughApril2014
1619 2024 2534 3544 4554 5564 65+
26
LaborForceParticipationRatesByAgeJanuary1,1948throughApril30,2014
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Source:US
Census;
http://www.census.gov/prod/2014pubs/p25
1140.pdf
27
DependencyRatiosintheU.S.19402050January1,1940projectedthrough2050
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Source:USCensus;http://www.census.gov/prod/2014pubs/p251140.pdf28
DependencyRatiosJanuary1,2012Projectedthrough2050
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Source:FiveThirtyEight EconomicsWhatBabyBoomersRetirementMeansfortheU.S.Economy,May7,2014
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whatbabyboomersretirementmeansfortheuseconomy
29
Americans65YearsandOlderAsofMay7,2014:Projections2015through2060
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30
65YearsandOlderAmericansvs.OtherCountriesAsofMay7,2014:Projectionstherestof2014through2050
Source:FiveThirtyEight EconomicsWhatBabyBoomersRetirementMeansfortheU.S.Economy,May7,2014
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whatbabyboomersretirementmeansfortheuseconomy
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31
ProjectedU.S.PopulationGrowthJanuary1,2012throughDecember31,2012thenProjected2013*through2060
Source:FiveThirtyEight EconomicsWhatBabyBoomersRetirementMeansfortheU.S.Economy,May7,2014
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/whatbabyboomersretirementmeansfortheuseconomy
*
2013
are
still
estimated
and
therefore
are
projections
for
purposes
of
this
chart.
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TABIII
GlobalMarkets
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GlobalInterestRatesAsofJune4,2014
33
2.602.34
5.98
3.72
0.60 0.73
2.65
1.811.41
2.603.00 2.85
1.76
2.73
1.91
3.66
9.37
4.04
2.29
8.38 8.60
8.02
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
9.00
10.00
Global10yearBondYields
Source:Bloomberg
InterestRate(%)
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GlobalInterestRates
34Note:Minack AdvisorsasofApril30,2014
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ShanghaiIndexDecember31,2009throughJune10,2014
Source:BloombergFinancialServices,DoubleLineCapitalLP
Note:The
Shanghai
Stock
Exchange
Composite
is
acapitalization
weighted
index
tracking
daily
price
performance
of
all
A
and
B
shares
listed
on
the
Shanghai
Stock
Exchange.ThisindexwasdevelopedDecember19,1990withabasevalueof100.
Aninvestmentcannotbemadedirectlyinanindex.
35
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DownwardRevisionstoChinaGrowthExpectationsin2014January1,2010throughMarch31,2014
36
7
7.5
8
8.5
9
9.5
10
10.5
520 480 440 400 360 320 280 240 200 160 120 80 40 0
MedianRealGDPForecast
MedianForecastofChinaRealGDP(byyear)
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Days LeadingUptoForecast
(TradingDays)
Thelast3 yearshavebeenastory
ofdownwardrevisionstogrowthin
China.
Source:
BloombergGDP=ThegrossdomesticproductisThemonetaryvalueofallthefinishedgoodsandservicesproducedwithinacountry'sbordersinaspecifictimeperiod,thoughGDP
isusuallycalculatedonanannualbasis.
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ChineseRenminbi SpotPerformance
Source:Bloomberg,DoubleLine.
CNY=Chinese
Renminbi (yuan)
is
the
official
currency
of
The
Peoples
Republic
of
China.
The
currency
is
quoted
as
the
spot
price
and
in
U.S.
Dollars,
September
1,
2010
throughMay3,201437
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38
EmergingMarketsRelativetoDevelopedWorldLastFiveYears(6508to6914)
Source:Bloomberg
MXEFIndex=TheMSCIEmergingMarketsIndexisafreefloatweightedequityindex.
MXWOIndex
=The
MSCI
World
Index
is
afree
float
weighted
equity
index.
It
was
developed
with
abase
value
of
100
as
of
December
31,
1969.
It
includes
developed
world
markets
and
does
not
includeemergingmarkets.Aninvestmentcannotbemadeinanindexdirectly.Pleaseseeappendixforindexdefinitions
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39
EmergingMarketsRelativetoDevelopedWorldLastTenYears(6704to6914)
Source:Bloomberg
MXEFIndex=TheMSCIEmergingMarketsIndexisafreefloatweightedequityindex.
MXWOIndex
=The
MSCI
World
Index
is
afree
float
weighted
equity
index.
It
was
developed
with
abase
value
of
100
as
of
December
31,
1969.
It
includes
developed
world
markets
and
does
not
includeemergingmarkets.Aninvestmentcannotbemadeinanindexdirectly.Pleaseseeappendixforindexdefinitions
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MarginBorrowingCPIAdjustedMarch31,1959throughApril30,2014
Source:BloombergFinancialServices,DoubleLineCapitalLP
MARGDEBT
=
Margin
debt
Index
is
the
New
York
Stock
Exchange
Member
Firms
debit
balances
in
margin
accounts.
CPI
=
Consumer
Price IndexAninvestmentcannotbemadedirectlyinanindex.Pleaseseeappendixfordefinitions. 40
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Lumbervs.HomebuildersIndexDecember31,2009throughJune10,2014
Source:BloombergFinancialServices,DoubleLineCapitalLP
LB1COMD=IstheRandomLengthLumberFuturescontractspecifies110,000boardfeet(one73flatcar)ofrandomlength820softwood2x4s.SPSIHOTRIndex=
S&PHomebuilders
Index
is
designed
to
measure
the
performance
of
narrow
GICSsub
industries.
The
Index
comprises
stocks
int eh
S&P
Total
Market
Index
that
are
classifiedintheGICShomebuildingsubindustry. 41
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TABIII
BloodlessVerdictoftheMarket
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BofA/MerrillFixedIncomeIndexReturns
DataSource:BofA/MerrillLynchIndicesthroughyearendDecember31,2013andJune9,2014fortherespectiveyearsindicated.
Pleasesee
the
Appendix
for
index
definitions.
An
investment
cannot
be
made
directly
in
an
index.
2.57%
3.29%
2.62%
5.07%
9.37%
5.08%
7.41%
3.21%
1.40%
0.01%
1.46%
5.79%
7.38%
26.60%
Government(G0A0)
Mortgages(MOAO)
InternationalDeveloped(NOGO)
Corporate(COAO)
InternationalEmerging(IGOV)
HighYield(JOAO)
Convertibles(VOSO)
Grey=Year2013
Blue=YearToDate2014
43
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BofA/MerrillFixedIncomeIndexReturns
4.60%
4.31%
6.16%
4.62%
5.53%
4.88%
4.27%
1.82%
0.95%
7.44%
5.19%
13.28%
AAARated
Credit
(COA1)
ARatedCredit(COA3)
BBBRated
Credit
(COA4)
BRatedHighYield(JOA2)
BBRatedHighYieldCredit(JOA1)
CCCRatedHighYield(JOA3)
InvestmentGrade=IndicesratedAAAtoBBB(shownabove)areconsideredtobeinvestmentgrade. AbondisconsideredinvestmentgradeifitscreditratingisBBBor
higherbyStandard&PoorsorBaa3byMoodys.Thehighertherating,themorelikelythebondistopaybackatpar/$100cents onthedollar.AAAisconsideredthehighest
qualityand thelowestdegreeofrisk.Theyareconsideredtobestableanddependable.
BelowInvestmentGrade=Alsoknownasjunkbond(shownabove)isasecurityratedbelowinvestmentgradehavingaratingofBBBorbelow.Thesebondsareseenas
havinghigherdefaultriskorotheradversecreditevents,buttypicallypayhigheryieldsthanbetterqualitybondsinorder to makethemattractive.Theyarelesslikelytopay
backatpar/$100centsonthedollar.
CreditdistributionfromthehighestavailablecreditratingfromanyNationallyRecognizesStatisticalRatingOrganization(S&P,Moodys,andFitch).
Source:BofA/Merrill
Lynch
Indices as
of
December
31,
2013
and
June
9,
2014
and
for
their
respective
years
indicated.
PleaseseeappendixforIndexdefinitions
Aninvestmentcannotbemadedirectlyinanindex.
Grey=Year
2013
Blue=YearToDate2014
44
C t 30 Y C l ti T t l R t P k t T h
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Current30YearCumulativeTotalReturnPeaktoTroughAsMeasuredbytheBofAMerrillLynchCurrent30YearUSTreasuryIndex
Source:Bloomberg,BankofAmericaMerrillLynch.Dateranges:October15,1993throughJune12,1995andJuly25,2012throughMarch10,2014.
Current30Y
US
Treasury
Index
(GA30).
You
cannot
invest
directly
in
an
index.
45
US Rates: 30 year U S Treasury Posting 3rd Strongest
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46Source:Bianco Research.January1,1974throughApril30,2014
USRates:30yearU.S.TreasuryPosting3rd Strongest
YearToDateReturnsince1974
30-Year Treasury Year-To-Date Total ReturnsEvery Year Since 1974
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 180 192 204 216 228 240 252 264
# Of Trading Days Since Jan 1
-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2009
1986 1995
2014
2008
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HousingandMBSMarketTrends
TABIV
Bloomberg Housing Surprise Index
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Source:Bloomberg FinancialServices
TheBloombergECOSurpriseIndex(ESI)shows thedegreetowhicheconomicanalystsunderor overestimatethetrendsinthebusinesscycle. Thesurpriseelementisdefinedasthe
percentage
(orpercentage
point)
difference
between
analyst
forecasts
and
the
published
value
of
economic
data
releases.
Youcannotinvestdirectlyinanindex.
BloombergHousingSurpriseIndex
48
New Home Sales Last Ten Years
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NewHomeSales LastTenYears
Source:Bloomberg FinancialServices
NHSLTOTIndex=U.S.NewOnefamilyhousessoldannually.Theindextrackssalesofnewlyconstructedhomesduringthereference period.
Aninvestmentcannotbemadeinanindexdirectly. 49
Where Are the First Time Buyers?
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Source:National
Association
of
Realtors
May1,2011throughMarch31,2014
WhereAretheFirstTimeBuyers?
50
Ubiquitous Affordability Chart
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Ub qu tous o dab ty C a tJanuary1,2000throughMarch31,2014
51
Source:BloombergFinancialServices
HomebuyerAffordabilityCompositeIndex(AFFDCMOM)=Trackstheaffordabilityofhousingtypicallybasedonamixofmedianhome prices,medianincomeandmortgagerates.
Aninvestment
cannot
be
made
directly
in
an
index.
ActualHomeAffordabilityCalculation:
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y
California
52
2004 Dec06 Mar14
Rate 4.50% 5.50% 2.00% 4.25%
RateType 5/1IO 5/1IO OptionPAY 30YrFixed
MedianPrice $451,068 $ 569,560 $569,560 $435,470
Payment $1,692
$2,610
$949
$2,142
Average $1780
Source: DoubleLineCapital
Asof
December
31,
2004,
December
31,
2006
and
March
31,
2014.
IO
=Interest
Only
Loan.
Option
Pay
=The
borrower
has
four
payment
options
each
month
to
pay
the
mortgage
based
on
paymentofprincipalandinterest.30yr fixed=A30yearfixedratemortgagewherethemortgageretainsthesameinterestrateforthelifeoftheloanorthe30years.
HousingAffordability
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g y
53
Source: DoubleLineCapital.June30,1998throughMarch31,2014.
Thisisahypotheticalexampledemonstratingthepaymentofamortgageusingdifferentinterestratescenarios.Thepurposeistodemonstratethatwitharisinginterestratethepaymentofthemortgagegoesupbecausetheborrowerispayingmoreinterest.
LendingStandardsTightening
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54
Source:http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/snloansurvey/201405/fullreport.pdf
Theprimecategoryofresidentialmortgagesincludesloansmadetoborrowersthattypicallyhadrelativelystrong,welldocumentedcredithistories,relativelyhighcredit
scores,andrelativelylowdebttoincomeratiosatthetimeoforigination.Thiswouldincludefullyamortizingloansthathave afixedrate,astandardadjustablerate,ora
commonhybridadjustableratethoseforwhichtheinterestrateisinitiallyfixedforamultiyearperiodandsubsequentlyadjustsmorefrequently.Thenontraditional
categoryofresidentialmortgagesincludes,butisnotlimitedto,adjustableratemortgageswithmultiplepaymentoptions,interestonlymortgages,and``AltA''productssuch
asmortgageswithlimitedincomeverificationandmortgagessecuredbynonowneroccupiedproperties.(Pleaseexcludestandardadjustableratemortgagesandcommon
hybridadjustableratemortgages.)Thesubprimecategoryofresidentialmortgagestypicallyincludesloansmadetoborrowersthatdisplayedoneormoreofthefollowing
characteristicsat
the
time
of
origination:
weakened
credit
histories
that
include
payment
delinquencies,
chargeoffs,
judgments,
and/or
bankruptcies;
reduced
repayment
capacityasmeasuredbycreditscoresordebttoincomeratios;orincompletecredithistories.
g g gJanuary1,2007throughMarch31,2014
Net%ofDomestic
RespondentsTighteningStandardsfor
Res
identialMortgageLoans
Mortgage Refinancing Index
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Source:BloombergFinancialServices
MBAVREFI=MortgageRefinancingIndexasmeasuredbythe MortgageBankersAssociationreflectsthenumberofapplicationsforrefinance.Notallapplicationsareaccepted.
Aninvestment
cannot
be
made
directly
in
an
index.
MortgageRefinancingIndexJune13,2003throughMay30,2014
55
ABXAAA071Index
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December31,2009throughJune10,2014
Source:BloombergFinancialServices,DoubleLineCapitalLP
TheABX071AAAIndexisabasketofhomeequity.Constitutedfromreferenceobligationsissuedby20issuersofresidentialmortgagebackedsecurities.
An
investment
cannot
be
made
directly
in
an
index.
56
NonAgencyResidentialMortgageBackedSecurities
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(RMBS)60++DelinquencyRateJanuary
1,
2005
through
May
31,
2014
SeriousDelinquenciesisdefinedbymortgagesthatare60++delinquencyratesdefinedasloans60 or90dayslateinmortgagepayments,oralreadyinforeclosureorREOstatus.PrimedefinedasFICO>725andLTV725andLTV>=75
SubprimedefinedasFICO
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January1,2005throughMay31,2014
RMBS=ResidentialMortgageBackedSecurities
SeriousDelinquenciesisdefinedbymortgagesthatare60++delinquencyratesdefinedasloans60 or90dayslateinmortgagepayments,oralreadyinforeclosureorREOstatus.PrimedefinedasFICO>725andLTV725andLTV>=75
SubprimedefinedasFICO
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January1,2005throughMay31,2014
RMBS=ResidentialMortgageBackedSecurities
SeriousDelinquenciesisdefinedbymortgagesthatare60++delinquencyratesdefinedasloans60 or90dayslateinmortgagepayments,oralreadyinforeclosureorREOstatus.PrimedefinedasFICO>725andLTV725andLTV>=75
SubprimedefinedasFICO
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January31,2005throughMay31,2014
RMBS ResidentialMortgageBackedSecurities.CRR=ConditionalRepaymentRate.
SeriousDelinquenciesisdefinedbymortgagesthatare60++delinquencyratesdefinedasloans60 or90dayslateinmortgagepayments,oralreadyinforeclosureorREOstatus.PrimedefinedasFICO>725andLTV725andLTV>=75
SubprimedefinedasFICO
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DoubleLineFundsOverview
TABV
TotalReturnBondFundPortfolioStatistics
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Portfoliostatisticsasof May30,2014basedonmarketweightedaverages.Subjecttochangewithoutnotice.
Averageprice=Ameasureoftheweightedaveragepricepaidforthesecuritiescalculatedbytakingthepricesanddividingbythenumberofsecuritiesanddoesnotincludecash.
Averagepriceshouldnotbeconfusedwithnetassetvalue.
AverageDuration=Durationisusedasariskmeasure.Itmeasuresthepricevolatilityofasecuritygivenachangeininterestratemovements.
AverageLife=Theaveragenumberofyearsthateachdollarofunpaidprincipaldueonthemortgageremainsoutstanding.Averagelifeiscomputedastheweightedaveragetimeto
thereceiptofallfuturecashflows,usingastheweightsthedollaramountsoftheprincipalpaydowns.
Source:DoubleLineCapitalLP
Total Return
BondFund
BarclaysCapitalU.S.
AggregateIndex
AveragePrice $97.73 $105.75
Duration 3.38 5.61
Average Life 5.20 7.69
62
TotalReturnBondFundPortfolioComposition
By Security Type
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PortfoliocompositionasofMay30,2014.Subjecttochangewithoutnotice.
Source:DoubleLineCapitalLP.Sectorallocationsaresubjecttochangeandshouldnotbeconsideredarecommendationtobuyorsellanysecurity.
Cash = Thevalueofassetsthatcanbeconvertedintocashimmediately.Canincludemarketablesecurities,suchasgovernmentbonds,banker'sacceptances,cashequivalentsonbalance
sheetsthatmayincludesecuritiesthatmaturewithin90days.
Government U.S.treasurysecurities.
Agency=MortgagesecuritieswhoseprincipalandinterestguaranteedbytheU.S.GovernmentagencyincludingFannieMae(FNMA)orFreddieMac(FHLMC).
NonAgency =ResidentialMortgagesBondSecuritiesareatypeofbondbackedbyresidentialmortgages.NonAgencymeanstheywereissuedby aprivateissuer.
CMBS=CommercialMortgageBackedSecurities.Securitizedloansmade oncommercialratherthanresidentialproperty.
Other=CollateralizedMortgageObligations(CLOs)
BySecurityType
63
Cash 8.5%
Government 5.9%
Agency 47.9%
NonAgency 27.9%
CMBS 6.4%
CLO 3.1% Other 0.3%
TotalReturnBondFundPortfolioComposition
ByAgencyCollateralizeMortgageObligation(CMO)
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PortfoliocompositionasofMay30,2014. Subjecttochangewithoutnotice.
Source:DoubleLineCapitalLP.Sectorallocationsaresubjecttochangeandshouldnotbeconsideredarecommendationtobuyorsellanysecurity.
Cash = Thevalueofassetsthatcanbeconvertedintocashimmediately.Canincludemarketablesecurities,suchasgovernmentbonds,banker'sacceptances,cashequivalentsonbalancesheetsthatmayincludesecuritiesthatmaturewithin90days.
PassThrough=MortgagepassthroughsecuritieswhoseprincipalandinterestguaranteedbytheU.S.GovernmentagencyincludingFannieMae(FNMA)orFreddieMac(FHLMC)ornon
agencyprivateissuewithnogovernmentguarantee.
CMOCurrent=CollateralizedMortgageObligation(CMO)isafinancialdebtvehicle/specialpurposeentitycalledapool.Investorsbuybondsissuedbytheentityandreceivepayments
accordingtoadefinedsetofrules.Themortgagesthemselvesarethecollateral,thebondsarethetranches(alsocalledclasses),andthesetofrulesthatdictateshowmoneyisreceived
fromthecollateralwillbedistributediscalledthestructure.Thelegalentity,collateralandstructurearecollectivelyreferredtoasthedeal.
IO=InterestOnlymortgagepoolsinwhichtheborrowersmonthlypaymentisonlytowardtheinterestontheloan.Anonamortized loan.
InverseFloater=Amortgagepoolthathasayieldthatisinverselyrelatedtointerestrates.
IOCurrentpay=Loansthatarecurrentlyreceivingprincipalpayments.
LockedOut/CMOLockedOut=Loansthatforasetperiodoftime willnotreceiveprincipalpayments.
64
SecurityType
Cash,8.5% InverseFloater,
1.4%
Pass
Through,
28.3%
CMOCurrent,
8.0%
CMOLocked,9.3%
IOCurrent,0.9%IOLocked,0.0%
AgencyCMOComposition
Cash 8.5%
InverseFloater 1.4%
PassThrough 28.3%
CMOCurrent 8.0%
CMOLocked 9.3%
IOCurrent 0.9%
IOLocked 0.0%
Subtotal 56.5%
TotalReturnBondFundPortfolio
NonAgencyResidentialMortgageBackedSecurities
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Portfoliocompositionandcreditratingsasofsecurityorigination.Portfoliocompositionissubjecttochangewithoutnotice.TherearesomenonratedsecuritiesintheFundasshown
inthegraphabove.CreditdistributionisdeterminedfromthehighestavailablecreditratingfromanyNationallyRecognized StatisticalRatingOrganization(S&P,Moodys,andFitch).
InvestmentGrade=SecuritiesratedAAAtoBBBareconsideredtobeinvestmentgrade. AbondisconsideredinvestmentgradeifitscreditratingisBBBorhigherbyStandard&
PoorsorBaa3byMoodys.Ratingsbasedoncorporatebondmodel.Thehighertherating,themorelikelythebondistopayback atpar/$100centsonthedollar.AAAisconsideredthe
highestqualityand thelowestdegreeofrisk.Theyareconsideredtobeextremelystableanddependable.
BelowInvestmentGrade=AlsoknownasjunkbondisasecurityratedbelowinvestmentgradehavingaratingofBBBorbelow.Thesebondsareseenas havinghigherdefaultriskor
otheradversecreditevents,buttypicallypayhigheryieldsthanbetterqualitybondsinordertomakethemattractive.They arelesslikelytopaybackatpar/$100centsonthedollar.
NR=NotRated.Securitiesthatarenotratedbythethreeratingagencies.
Creditquality
may
be
assessed
by
different
agencies
for
different
bonds
for
reasons
beyond
the
control
of
the
Fund.
Source:DoubleLineCapitalLPasofMay30,2014.
(RMBS)BreakdownByOriginalRating
65
AAA
85%
AA
1%
A
0%
BBB
2%NR
12%
TotalReturnBondFundPortfolio
NonAgency RMBS Breakdown By Current Credit Quality
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NonAgencyRMBSBreakdownByCurrentCreditQuality
Portfoliocomposition
as
of
May
30,
2014.
Portfolio
composition
is
subject
to
change
without
notice.
There
are
some
non
rated
securities
in
the
portfolio
as
shown
in
the
chart
above.
CreditdistributionisdeterminedfromthehighestavailablecreditratingfromanyNationallyRecognizedStatisticalRatingOrganization(S&P,Moodys,andFitch).
InvestmentGrade=SecuritiesratedAAAtoBBB(showninblueabove)areconsideredtobeinvestmentgrade. AbondisconsideredinvestmentgradeifitscreditratingisBBBof
higherbyStandard&PoorsorBaa3byMoodys.Ratingsbasedoncorporatebondmodel.Thehighertherating,themorelikely thebondistopaybackatpar/$100centsonthedollar.
AAAisconsideredthehighestqualityand thelowestdegreeofrisk.Theyareconsideredtobeextremelystableanddependable.
BelowInvestmentGrade=Alsoknownasjunkbond(showningreyabove)isasecurityratedbelowinvestmentgradehavingaratingofBBBorbelow.Thesebondsareseenas
havinghigherdefaultriskorotheradversecreditevents,buttypicallypayhigheryieldsthanbetterqualitybondsinorder to makethemattractive.Theyarelesslikelytopaybackat
par/$100centsonthedollar.
CreditqualitymaybeassessedbydifferentagenciesfordifferentbondsforreasonsbeyondthecontroloftheFund.
NR=NotRated.Securitiesthatarenotratedbythethreeratingagencies.
RMBS=Residential
Mortgage
Backed
Securities.
Source:DoubleLineCapitalLP
66
AAA,0.1%AA,0.1%
A+,0.8% A,0.3% A,
0.1%
BBB+,0.2%
BBB,0.1%BB+,0.4%
BB,0.2%
BB,0.2%
B+,0.5%
B,
1.2
%
B,0.9%
CCC+,1.7%
CCC,6.2%
CCC,3.9%
CC,2.2%C,
0.1%
D,5.6%
NR,3.1%
TotalReturnBondFundPortfolio
NonAgency RMBS Breakdown By Price
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Non AgencyRMBSBreakdownByPrice
PortfoliopricecompositionasofMay30,2014.Subjecttochangewithoutnotice.
Source:DoubleLineCapitalLP.Sectorallocationsaresubjecttochangeandshouldnotbeconsideredarecommendationtobuyorsellanysecurity.
DollarPrice
%ofFund
67
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
CoreFixedIncomeFundPortfolioStatistics
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PortfoliostatisticsasofMay30,2014basedonmarketweightedaverages.Subjecttochangewithoutnotice.
Averageprice=Ameasure oftheweightedaveragepricepaidforthesecuritiescalculatedbytakingthepricesanddividingbythenumber of securitiesanddoesnotincludecash.
Averagepriceshouldnotbeconfusedwithnetassetvalue.
AverageDuration=Durationisusedasariskmeasure.Itmeasuresthepricevolatilityofasecuritygivenachangeininterestratemovements.
AverageLife=Theaveragenumberofyearsthateachdollarofunpaidprincipaldueonthemortgageremainsoutstanding.Averagelifeiscomputedastheweightedaveragetimeto
thereceiptofallfuturecashflows,usingastheweightsthedollaramountsoftheprincipalpaydowns.
Source:DoubleLineCapitalLP
CoreFixedIncome
Fund
BarclaysCapitalU.S
AggregateIndex
AveragePrice $102.42 $105.75
Duration 4.52 5.61
Average Life 6.57 7.69
68
CoreFixedIncomeFundPortfolioComposition
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PortfoliocompositionasofMay30,2014.Subjecttochangewithoutnotice.
BankLoans=Adebtfinancingobligationissuedbyabankorsimilarfinancialinstitutiontoacompany.
CommercialMortgageBackedSecurities(CMBS)=CommercialMortgageBackedSecurities.Securitizedloansmade oncommercialratherthanresidentialproperty.
CollateralizedLoanObligations(CLOs)=Aformofsecuritizationwherepaymentsfrommultiplemiddlesizedandlargebusinessloansarepooledtogetherandpassedontodifferentclassed
ofownersinvarioustranches
Cash
=
Cashholding
include
the
value
of
assets
that
can
be
converted
into
cash
immediately.
Can
include
marketable
securities,
such
as
government
bonds,
banker's
acceptances,
cash
equivalentsonbalancesheetsthatmayincludesecuritiesthatmaturewithin90days.
Government=Governmentdebt(alsoknownaspublicdebtornationaldebt)ismoney(orcredit)owedbyanylevelofgovernment;eithercentralgovernment,federalgovernment,
municipalgovernmentorlocalgovernment.
MortgageBackedSecurities(MBS)=Amortgagebackedsecurity(MBS)isanassetbackedsecurityordebtobligationthatrepresentsaclaimonthecashflowsfrom mortgageloans,most
commonlyonresidentialproperty
EmergingMarketsFixedIncome=Emergingmarketdebt(EMD)isatermusedtoencompassbondsissuedbylessdevelopedcountries.
InvestmentGrade(IG)andHighYieldCorporates(HY)=Investmentgradeandnoninvestmentgradecorporatecredit.Bondsissuedbycorporationstoraisemoneyinordertoexpandits
business.CreditdistributionisdeterminedfromthehighestavailablecreditratingfromanyNationallyRecognizedStatisticalRatingOrganization(S&P,Moodys,andFitch).Abondrated
BBBorhigherwouldbeconsideredInvestmentGrade.AnybondratedBBBorbelowwouldbeHighYield.
Source:DoubleLineCapitalLP.Sectorallocationsaresubjecttochangeandshouldnotbeconsideredarecommendationtobuyorsellanysecurity. 69
Cash
3%
Govt
19%
MBS
29%EM
15%
IGCorporate
15%
CMBS
7%
BankLoans
6%
HYCorporate
3%
CLO
3%
CoreFixedIncomeFund
PortfolioCreditQualityBreakdown
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PortfoliocompositionandcreditratingsasofMay30,2014.Portfoliocompositionissubjecttochangewithoutnotice.Creditdistributionisdeterminedfromthehighestavailablecredit
ratingfromanyNationallyRecognizedStatisticalRatingOrganization(S&P,Moodys,andFitch).
Cash
=The
value
of
assets
that
can
be
converted
into
cash
immediately.
Can
include
marketable
securities,
such
as
government
bonds, banker's
acceptances,
cash
equivalents
on
balance
sheetsthatmayincludesecuritiesthatmaturewithin90days.
Government=Governmentdebt(alsoknownaspublicdebtornationaldebt)ismoney(orcredit)owedbyanylevelofgovernment;eithercentralgovernment,federalgovernment,
municipalgovernmentorlocalgovernment.
Agency=MortgagesecuritieswhoseprincipalandinterestareeffectivelyguaranteedbytheU.S.GovernmentagencyincludingFannieMae(FNMA)orFreddieMac(FHLMC).
InvestmentGrade=AbondisconsideredinvestmentgradeifitscreditratingisBBBofhigherbyStandard&PoorsorBaa3byMoodys.Ratingsbasedoncorporatebondmodel.The
highertherating,themorelikelythebondistopaybackatpar/$100centsonthedollar.
BelowInvestmentGrade (BelowIG)=Alsoknownasjunkbondisasecurityratedbelowinvestmentgrade.Thesebondsareseenashavinghigherdefaultriskor otheradversecredit
events,buttypicallypayhigheryieldsthanbetterqualitybondsinordertomakethemattractive.Theyarelesslikelytopaybackatpar/$100centsonthedollar.
CreditqualitymaybeassessedbydifferentagenciesfordifferentbondsforreasonsbeyondthecontroloftheFund.
NR=Not
Rated
.Securities
that
are
not
rated
by
the
three
rating
agencies.
Source:DoubleLineCapitalLP. 70
Cash
3%
Govt
19%
Agency
16%
Investment
Grade
32%
BelowIG
28%
Unrated
2%
Penny For Your Thoughts
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LiveWebcasthostedby:
JeffreyGundlach
ChiefExecutiveOfficer
June10,
2014
PennyForYourThoughts
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UpcomingWebcastAnnouncements
Sam Garza June 24 2014
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SamGarza June24,2014
MultiAsset
Growth
Gotowww.doublelinefunds.com,HomepageunderEvents
2014WebcastScheduletoregister
1:15pmPDT/4:15pmEDT
PhilipBarach
July
8,
2014
LowDuration
Gotowww.doublelinefunds.com,HomepageunderEvents
2014WebcastScheduletoregister
1:15pmPDT/4:15pmEDT
LuzPadilla
July
22,
2014
EmergingMarketsFixedIncome
Gotowww.doublelinefunds.com,HomepageunderEvents
2014WebcastScheduletoregister
1:15pmPDT/4:15pmEDT
ToReceivePresentationSlides:
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