PEO / SYSCOM Commander’s Conference

Mr. Rob BrownAssistant Deputy For Program Integration

Missile Defense Agency

20-22 NOV 02

ms-104504 / 111802

2ms-104504 / 111802

BALLISTIC MISSILE CAPABILITY – 2002

China CSS-2, CSS-3, CSS-4, CSS-5, CSS-6, CSS-7,

JL-2*, CSS-NX-3*, DF-31*, DF-31A*

Pakistan Hatf-I,

Hatf III, Shaheen I, Shaheen II,

GhauriSaudi Arabia

CSS-2

Yemen Scud-B,

SS-21

Egypt Scud-B

Israel Jericho I, Jericho II

Libya Scud-B

Bulgaria Scud-B, SS-23

Syria Scud-B, Scud-C,

SS-21

Russia Scud-B,

SS-18, SS-19, SS-21, SS-25, SS-26, SS-27,

SS-N-8, SS-N-18, SS-N-20, SS-N-23

North Korea Scud-B, Scud-C, ND-1,

TD-1, TD-2

South Korea NHK

Afghanistan Scud-B

Vietnam Scud-B

Belarus Scud-B, SS-21

Slovakia SS-21, SS-23

Ukraine Scud-B, SS-21

India Prithvi I, Prithvi II, Dhanush, Agni II,

Sagarika*

Poland Scud-B

Czech Republic SS-21

UAE Scud-B

Kazakhstan Scud-B, SS-21

France M-45

UK Trident D-5

Iran Scud-B, CSS-8,

Shahab-3Turkmenistan

Scud-B

* Missiles In Development

Iraq Al Samoud

3ms-104504 / 111802

BALLISTIC MISSILE DEFENSE CHALLENGE

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0 1,300 0 3,500 >5,50000

Alt

itu

de (

km)

Medium Range Ballistic Missile

(MRBM)

Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile

(IRBM)

Range (km)0 600

Short Range Ballistic Missile

(SRBM)

Terminal

Boost

Midcourse

Consequence Management

• Thousands Built, Widely Available• Commonly Land-launched• Sea-based Launch Demonstrated By Iran, India

• Many Exist In Third World• More On The Way

• A Few Exist In Third World• Not Yet Tested As Ballistic

Missiles

Intercontinental Ballistic Missile

(ICBM)

DeploymentReentry

Burnout

Pre-Boost

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THREAT TRENDS

Third Stage+

600 km 1,300 km 2,000 km 6,000 km

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BMD SYSTEM

Terminal Defense Segment

Launch Impact

Boost Defense Segment •Defends Localized Areas And Critical Assets

•Destroys Missile Regardless Of Aim Point- Potential For Global

Defense

SRBMs MRBMs / IRBMs ICBMs

•Multiple Engagement Opportunities Increase Likelihood Of Success•Complicates Efforts Of Adversaries•Overcomes Countermeasures

Midcourse Defense Segment• Defends Wide Regions• Longer Engagement

Opportunities

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BOOST PHASE DEFENSE

KE Concepts Sea

KE ConceptsSpace

ABL

KE ConceptsAir

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MIDCOURSE SEGMENT ELEMENTS

Missile Defense Communications Net

GBI

DSP/SBIRSHigh

Space Based Infrared System / Low Component

Defense Support Program/Space Based Infrared System

High Component

X-band RadarKill Vehicle

Battle Management / Command, Control

Early Warning Radars

Command & ControlTactical Data Link

Networks

SPY-1 Radar

STANDARD Missile (SM-3)Four Stage

Hit-to-Kill Missile

STANDARD Missile (SM-3)Four Stage

Hit-to-Kill Missile

Aegis Weapon System

Vertical Launching

System

Vertical Launching

System

Maintenance & Training

Maintenance & Training

Ground-Based Sea-Based

Interceptor

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TERMINAL DEFENSE

PATRIOT PAC-3

Sea-Based Terminal Concept Medium Extended Air Defense System (MEADS)

THAAD Arrow

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INTEGRATED BMDS ENVIRONMENT

ENEMYMISSILE

Response Timeliness Critical• SRBM – <3 minutes• MRBM – <5 minutes• IRBM – <10 minutes• ICBM – <20 minutes

Supporting CC JFACC/AADC

(Korea)

ABL

AEGIS

BMDS BMC2/C

PAC-3

Assigned Forces

Supporting CCAADC/RADC

(PACOM)

NORTHCOMCC

NORAD/BMDS Cell

STRATCOMCC

STRAT Ops Center

BMDS BMC2/C

•

UEWR &CD

GBIXBR

GBMC2

BMDS BMC2/C

Bridging Multiple Command Systems Into An Integrated BMDS System With Overarching C2

GlobalCommand

System

BMDS BMC2/C

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THE PROBLEM

• Developing Missile Defenses Takes Time (10+ Years For The PAC-3) And Requirements Can Become Outmoded

• Must Expect To Be Surprised By Changes In Threat

• Cannot Know With Confidence What Nation, Combination Of Nations, Or Non-state Actors Will Pose Threats To Vital U.S. Interests Or Those Of U.S. Allies And Friends

• Can Anticipate Capabilities An Adversary Might Employ To Coerce Neighbors, Deter The U.S. From Acting, Or Directly Attack The U.S. Or Its Deployed Forces

11ms-104504 / 111802

PROGRAM STATUS As Of March 2001

DocumentsAPB TEMP SAMP ORD

Breach Out Of Date Current

APR 98

MAY 98

JUN 00

1999

MAY 00

DEC 99

APR 96

Navy Area

PAC-3

THAAD

NTW

NMD

ABL

SBIRS-Low

OCT 99 – Cost And Schedule Breach

MAR 00 – Cost And Schedule Breach

JUN 00

1999

MAR 00 – Pending ADM Current

Program

MAY 99 – Cost And Schedule Breach

AUG 99 – Update Cost Estimates And

Approve

JAN 97 – Rev 2 Draft Now In Development

SEP 00 – New TEMP In Coordination

JUN 00

1999 – ALI Only

JUN 99

NOV 96 – New Revisions In Process

JUN 98 – Does Not Reflect Acceleration

FEB 97 – Need To Revise Exist Criteria

APR 97 – Acquisition Strategy

JUN 00

1999 – Based Upon 99 Block I FUE – FY 07

MAY 00

NOV 96 – New Revisions In Coordination

OCT 96 – To Be Updated After Next

DAES Review

12ms-104504 / 111802

MISSILE DEFENSE PROGRAM DIRECTION 2 January 2002 SecDef Memo

• Employ A Ballistic Missile Defense System That Layers Defenses To Intercept Missiles In All Phases Of Their Flight Against All Ranges Of Threat

• Establish A Single Program To Develop An Integrated System Under A Newly Titled Missile Defense Agency (MDA)

• MDA To Develop The Missile Defense System. Military Departments To Procure And Provide For Operation And Support

• Current Missile Defense ORDS Are Hereby Cancelled - Apply A Capability-based Requirements Process For Missile Defense

• Assign The Best And Brightest People

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CAPABILITY BASED PLANNING (CBP)

• Planning, Under Uncertainty, To Provide Capabilities Suitable For A Wide Range Of Modern-Day Challenges And Circumstances While Working Within An Economic Framework That Necessitates Choice

• Key Elements

- Understanding Needs- Assessing Options At Mission Or Operational Level- Choosing Capability Levels And Options In An

Integrative Framework That Considers Other Factors, Types Of Risk, And Economic Limitations- A Solution Framework That Emphasizes “Building

Blocks”

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BMD EVOLUTIONARY DEVELOPMENT

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014CY 2013 201520112009200720052003

Evolutionary Spiral Development

Block 2004

Block 2006

Block 2008

Block 2010

Block 2012

Block 2014

• Add New Capability Based On Technical Maturity

• Upgrade Existing Capability – Insert Technology

• Evolve Requirements

• Procure Additional Force – Enhance Capability

• Extend To Allies And Friends When Appropriate

• Plan

• Execute

• AdjustFeedback

15ms-104504 / 111802

BMDS BLOCK APPROACH

BMDS Development

Transition

Transition

Services

MDA

Block YY Block ZZ

Transition

Elem

ent B

lock C

onfigu

ration

Elem

ent

Elem

ent

Procurement And Operations

Procurement And Operations

Procurement And Operations

Inherent Emergency Capability

Block XX

16ms-104504 / 111802

MDA

Services

MISSILE DEFENSE RELATIONSHIPS

Moving From Traditional Roles / ResponsibilitiesTo A Collaborative Team Approach

• Service BoD• Liaison Office- Multi-mission - Interface Mgmt

CombatantCommanders

• Joint Warfighter Support- Exercise Support- Contingency - Planning

• JTAMDO- CRD-ORD- Integration- Joint CONOPS- Ops Concept Team

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REQUIREMENTS-BASED VERSUSCAPABILITY-BASED

MissionNeeds

Statement

SystemThreat

AssessmentReport(STAR)

OperationalRequirements

Document(ORD)

Requirements-BasedDesign Process System

RequirementsDocument

(SRD)

B-Spec

C-Spec

D-Spec

PrimeContractor

TechnicalObjectivesAnd Goals

(TOG)

AdversaryCapabilitiesDocument

(ACD)

BMDCapabilitiesAssessment

Capability-BasedDesign Process

SystemCapability

Specification

ElementSpecification

Elements

System Evolution

(Block) Plan

“Capability-Based ORD”

18ms-104504 / 111802

TECHNICAL OBJECTIVES ANDGOALS (TOG) FRAMEWORK

Flexible

Effective

Affordable

Compatible

Demonstrable

Evolution Of CONOPS

• Probability Of Engagement Success (PES)• Defended Area

• Launch Area Denied

Robust • Survivability • Robustness To Threat • Vulnerability

• Adaptable

• Utilize Information

• Test Realism• Measurable Test Results

• Planning, Execution And Coordination

Quality

Schedule • Date Available

BMDS Technical / Operational Objectives

SecDef Program Direction

Limit A Priori Knowledge

Operational Metrics

• Unit Life Cycle Cost • Budget Effectiveness

• Exchange Information

• Evolvable • Growable

• Does / Does Not Rely On A Priori Knowledge

Operational Goals

Technical MetricsTechnical Goals• Hardware / Software• Readiness Levels (Technical / Integration /

Engineering and Manufacturing)

• Cost Effectiveness

• Human Factors Design• Human Impact On Timeline• Supportability

19ms-104504 / 111802

THREAT APPROACH

• Review Available Evidence-Based Parameter Bounds

- Ballistic Missile Reference Document, Strategic Ballistic Missile Reference Document, System Threat Assessments, Other Intel Documents

- Set Intel-Based Parameter Bounds

• Consider Design Space Variations - Review Engineering Technologies And What Is

Technically Feasible To Set The Engineering Bounds

• Determine Bounds Based On Physics

Evidence-Based (Intel)

Engineering-Based

Physics-Based

20ms-104504 / 111802

CAPABILITY-BASED SPECIFICATION DEVELOPMENT

OPTIONS

SYSTEM DEVELOPMENT

Vn

OPTIONS

TOGRed/White/Blue/Black

OPTIONS

RISK

CA

PA

BIL

ITY

Low

Hig

h

System Operational Capability Document

ThreatDescriptionDocument

ElementOperational Capability Document

Element Capability

Specification

RISK

CA

PA

BIL

ITY

Low

Hig

h

+Selected Option Documentation

Element Specification

BMDSEvolution

PlanWith What Against What

Selected Capabilities

Department Guidance,SecDef Memo, DPG, . .

SYSTEM SPECIFICATION

Whichare

Better?

Whichare

Best?

Low HighRISK

CA

PA

BIL

ITY

Low

Hig

h

Time

BMDSCapability

Specifications

AdversaryCapability Document

OtherCapabilit

y

AdvancedConcepts

System Definition

Review

ConfigurationControlBoard

+

Low High Time

Low High Time

What To Do

System &Element

Verification

Whatis

Possible?

To Development and Test

To Development and Test

21ms-104504 / 111802

THE PATHS OF WARFIGHTER INPUT

• C2/BM/C Military Utility Assessment (MUA)

• BMDS MUA

What How WhoTOG Efforts

• Desired Capabilities

• OperationalApproaches

• Element EOCs• IMD CONOPS

• Operational Concepts, Architectures, And Requirements

• OPS Construct• Employment Concepts• C2/BM/C Employment

Concepts

• Product Support Annex• DOTMLPF

• Suitability And Supportability

• Production Quantities And Force Levels

Service Liaison Teams And Boards Of Directors

Service Liaison Teams And Boards Of Directors

• C2/BM/C-X

• MUA WIPT/JTAMD Process

• JNIC

• JTAMDO, MDA, JFCOM, Services

• Block Activation Plan (BAP)• JTAMD Process

• OAR WIPT/JTAMD Process

• MDNTB• Prototyping IPT• C2/BM/C-X

• Operations Concept Team (OCT)

• JTAMDO, MDA, JFCOM, Service

• JTAMDO, MDA, JFCOM, Services

• OCT• MDNTB• JNIC

• Block Activation Plan (BAP)• DOTMLPF WIPT/JTAMD

Process

• Product Support Team (PST)• JTAMDO, MDA, JFCOM,

Services

Sem

inars , T

able T

ops, E

xperim

ents, E

xercis es, Wargam

es

22ms-104504 / 111802

NATIONAL TEAM

GovernmentWith FFRDC, SETA

BMDS Configuration Control BoardFire WallB

oein

g

Ray

theo

n

TR

W

Nor

thro

p

Gru

mm

an

Gen

eral

D

ynam

ics

Gov’t/Lockheed Martin

BM/C2 NT Industry Leader

Loc

kh

eed

M

arti

n

Ray

theo

n

TR

W

Nor

thro

p

Gru

mm

an

Gen

eral

D

ynam

ics

SystemLevel

ElementLevel

GMD

System Guideline And Specification

ABL THAAD Program X

Gov’t/Boeing

SE&I NT Industry Leader

BMDS SCS

NTExec Council

C2BMC SCS

…

C2BM Integration“Glue Ware”

Coordination And Support On System Level Matters

Information, Data Reporting

23ms-104504 / 111802

BLOCK INTEGRATEDMASTER PLAN EVENTS

Event 0 – Block Capability Alternatives

Event 1 – Preliminary Configuration Definition

Event 2 – Configuration Definition

Event 3 – Element / Component Verification Initiation(Prototype Development)

Event 4 – Integrated Test Readiness Review

Event 5 – Interim Test And Progress Review

Event 6 – Element / Component Transition Decision Point(s)

Event 7 – Block Certification Of Military Utility

24ms-104504 / 111802

ELEMENT AND BLOCK TRANSFER

0 1 5 6 7

6

2 3 4

Block Transfer Path

Block Capabilities Certified

Available For Transition

Early Element Capabilities

Transition To Service

Element Transfer Path

Capability Alternatives

Block Planning / Element Development

Block Test Review / Decision Point

Element Decision Point

Capability Transfer To Service

25ms-104504 / 111802

BLOCK INTEGRATED MASTER PLAN

(EO)n – Block Capability Alternatives•Block Planning Process Completed•Long Lead Targets, Tests And Exercises Identified•Affordability Analysis Completed•Preliminary Block Plan Approved

E1 – Preliminary Configuration Definition•Preliminary Block Description Approved•Technology Readiness Levels Assessed•Performance Assessments Updated•Risks Assessed And Mitigation Programs Established•Detailed Cost Estimates For Elements / Components Available•Cost / Benefit Analysis Updated• Integration / Test Objectives Defined•Element / Component PDRs Completed•Required Funding Identified• IMS Created

E2 – Configuration Definition•CDRs Complete For All Element / Component / Targets Programs Completed•Performance / Cost Estimates Updated•Risks Assessed And Mitigation Programs Updated•Military Utility Characterized And CONOPS Refined•Preliminary Integration Test Plan Available•Funding Available And Resources Allocated•Block Definition Updated• IMS Updated

E3 – First Development Article•First Development Article Built And Initial Tests Completed•Targets Built And Tests Completed•Test Range And Support Planning Completed•CONOPS Defined And OPS Architecture Available•Funding And EAC Assessed

Tailored To Individual Block Composition

E4 – Integrated Test Readiness Review•Block Integration And Test Planning Completed•Element / Component Test And Checkout Completed•Target Test And Checkout Completed•BMDS Tactics, Techniques And Procedures For Designated User Defined•Funding Updated And EAC Updated•Operational Characterization Of Element Completed•Operational Certification Of Element Completed

E5 – Interim Test And Progress Review•50% Of System Test Objectives Accomplished•Support System Defined•Training System Defined•Funding Updated And EAC Verified• Initial Transition Plans Completed• Initial Operational Characterization Completed

E6 – Element / Component Transition Decision Point(s)•System / Element / Component Testing Completed•Operational Characterization Completed•Support Systems Planned And Budgeted•Training Systems Planned And Budgeted•Transition Plans Completed And Funded•Production Plans Available•Updated Block Definition Available•Element / Component Certification Of Military Utility Completed•Service TOA Available

E7 – Block Configuration Of Military Utility•Military Utility Assessed And System / Element / Component Offered For Transition•BMDS Capability Demonstrated•LCC Estimate Indicates Long Term Affordability•RM&A And Support Requirements Characterized•Block Certification Of Military Utility Completed• Integration Of Declared Block Capability Into BMDS

26ms-104504 / 111802

System Performance Envelope

Modeling And

Simulation

System Performance Conditions

Sys

tem

Con

fid

ence

High

Low

Hardware-In-The-Loop

BUILDING CONFIDENCE BASED ON AN INTEGRATED APPROACH

• Flight And Ground Testing Only Address A Limited Portion Of The Operational Envelope

• Test Affordability Must Be Considered

• An Integrated, Comprehensive Simulation Program Improves Confidence That The System Will Meet Performance Requirements

CaptiveCarry

FlightTest

CaptiveCarry

27ms-104504 / 111802

BMD SYSTEM TEST BED

SBIRS LowSBIRS Low • Common Test Bed For Ground-And Sea-Based Elements

• Expandable To Boost And Terminal Segments

• Adds Realism To Test

• Allows Multiple Engagements

• Adds Additional Intercept Areas

• Enhances Ground Test Capability

• Adds SBIRS High And Low Testing

Defense Support ProgramDefense Support Program

Hawaii Test Facility

Upgraded Early Warning Radar

Long-Haul Fiber Communications

Network

Long-Haul Fiber Communications

Network

Cobra DaneCobra Dane

Fort GreelyFort Greely

AEGIS (Sensor)AEGIS (Sensor)

K

V

Vandenberg AFB- Target

Mobile Launched Target

Mobile Launched Target

(Dual)- Boost Vehicle

(Dual)- Boost Vehicle

AEGIS

Kwajalein- Ground Based Radar Prototype- Ground Based

Interceptor(Dual)(Dual)

Target And InterceptorTarget And Interceptor

Added Intercept Areas

Added Intercept Areas

Pacific Missile Range

28ms-104504 / 111802

CRITERIA FOR TRANSITION

Development TransitionProcurement And

Operations

• Mature Design

• Military Utility

• Funding Available

• Supportable

• Capability-Based ORD Approved

• Producible

• Affordable

• Technical Maturity

• Demonstrated Capability

• Military Capability

• Funding Available

29ms-104504 / 111802

BMDS ACQUISITION DECISIONSRDT&E

JTAMDO

MDSG

LiaisonTeams

Acquisition DecisionAdvisory

SEC

USD(AT&L)

SMD GMD ABL THAAD Other

Blocks

Service BoDsMDAIntegrationBoard

BMDAcquisition Executive

30ms-104504 / 111802

BMDS ACQUISITION DECISIONSPROCUREMENT AND OPERATIONS

JTAMDO

LiaisonTeams

Acquisition DecisionAdvisory

Defense AcquisitionExecutive

SMD GMD ABL THAAD Other

Blocks

Service BoDsBMD

Acquisition Executive

DAB

MDA Integration Board

31ms-104504 / 111802

MISSILE DEFENSESUPPORT GROUP

• Provides Streamlined Executive Review And Oversight

• Facilitates Rapid Decision-Making

• Advises Director, MDA And Supports SEC Decision-Making- Full Range Of Viewpoints

• Engages Key Service And Department Personnel With MDA Management

• Provides A Flexible Approach To Execute Capability-Based Acquisition

• USD(AT&L) – Chair • MDA• Services• USD(P)• USD(C)• Joint Staff• ASD(C3I)• DoD(GC)• D, OT&E• D, PA&E• C, CAIG

MDSG Members

32ms-104504 / 111802

MYTHS VERSUS REALITY

• BMDS Is Structured Around Greater Threat Definitions

- Expands Observed Threats With What Is Possible

- Enables Flexible BMDS Design To Match Capability

• MDA Tailored DoD 5000 With New Phases, New Reporting, New Oversight

• MDA Has Greater Oversight

- SEC, USD(AT&L), And OSD Review MDA Progress Monthly, Quarterly And Annually

• MDA Continuously Engages Warfighters To Understand Capability, Develop CONOPs, Shape Development Efforts

• MDA Did Not Abandon Requirements

- Changed The Process And Timing To Define Requirements

• BMDS Is Not Based On Threats

Myth Reality

• MDA Is Exempt From DoD 5000

• MDA Has Minimal Oversight

• Capability-Based Does Not Involve The Warfighter

• BMDS Does Not Have A Requirements Process