PERENCANAAN DAN PERAMALAN KEUANGAN

Pertemuan 25

Matakuliah : <<Manajemen Keuangan>>Tahun : <<2009>>

Bina Nusantara University 3

Learning Outcomes

Pada akhir pertemuan ini diharapkan :Mahasiswa dapat menunjukkan hubungan pembiayaan internal dan eksternal ketika membuat ramalan dan perencanaan keuangan.

Outline Materi Forecasting sales Projecting the assets and internally generated

funds Projecting outside funds needed Deciding how to raise funds

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Preliminary financial forecast:Balance sheets (Assets)

2005 2006E

Cash and equivalents $ 20 $ 25

Accounts receivable 240 300

Inventories 240 300

Total current assets $ 500 $ 625

Net fixed assets 500 625

Total assets $1,000 $1,250

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Preliminary financial forecast: Balance sheets (Liabilities and equity)

2005 2006E

Accts payable & accrued liab.

$ 100 $ 125

Notes payable 100 190

Total current liabilities 200 315

Long-term debt 100 190

Common stock 500 500

Retained earnings 200 245

Total liabilities & equity $1,000 $1,250Bina Nusantara University 6

Preliminary financial forecast: Income statements

2005 2006E

Sales $2,000.0 $2,500.0

Less: Variable costs 1,200.0 1,500.0

Fixed costs 700.0 875.0

EBIT $100.0 $125.0

Interest 16.0 16.0

EBT $84.0 $109.0

Taxes (40%) 33.6 43.6

Net income $50.4 $65.40

Dividends (30% of NI) $15.12 $19.62

Addition to retained earnings $35.28 $45.78Bina Nusantara University 7

Key financial ratios2005 2006E Ind Avg Commen

tBasic earning power 10.00% 10.00% 20.00% PoorProfit margin 2.52% 2.62% 4.00% PoorReturn on equity 7.20% 8.77% 15.60% PoorDays sales outstanding

43.8 days

43.8 days

32.0 days

Poor

Inventory turnover 8.33x 8.33x 11.00x PoorFixed assets turnover

4.00x 4.00x 5.00x Poor

Total assets turnover 2.00x 2.00x 2.50x PoorDebt/assets 30.00% 40.34% 36.00% OKTimes interest earned

6.25x 7.81x 9.40x Poor

Current ratio 2.50x 1.99x 3.00x PoorPayout ratio 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% OK

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Key assumptions in preliminary financial forecast for NWC

• Operating at full capacity in 2005.• Each type of asset grows proportionally with

sales.• Payables and accruals grow proportionally with

sales.• 2005 profit margin (2.52%) and payout (30%) will

be maintained.• Sales are expected to increase by $500 million.

(%S = 25%)

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Determining additional funds needed, using the AFN equation

AFN = (A*/S0)ΔS – (L*/S0) ΔS – M(S1)(RR)

= ($1,000/$2,000)($500) – ($100/$2,000)($500) – 0.0252($2,500)(0.7)= $180.9 million.

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Management’s review of the financial forecast

• Consultation with some key managers has yielded the following revisions:– Firm expects customers to pay quicker next year,

thus reducing DSO to 34 days without affecting sales.

– A new facility will boost the firm’s net fixed assets to $700 million.

– New inventory system to increase the firm’s inventory turnover to 10x, without affecting sales.

• These changes will lead to adjustments in the firm’s assets and will have no effect on the firm’s liabilities on equity section of the balance sheet or its income statement.

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Revised (final) financial forecast:Balance sheets (Assets)

2005 2006E

Cash and equivalents $ 20 $ 67

Accounts receivable 240 233

Inventories 240 250

Total current assets $ 500 $ 550

Net fixed assets 500 700

Total assets $1,000 $1,250

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Key financial ratios – final forecast2005 2006F Ind Avg Commen

tBasic earning power 10.00% 10.00% 20.00% PoorProfit margin 2.52% 2.62% 4.00% PoorReturn on equity 7.20% 8.77% 15.60% PoorDays sales outstanding

43.8 days

34.0 days

32.0 days

OK

Inventory turnover 8.33x 10.00x 11.00x OKFixed assets turnover 4.00x 3.57x 5.00x PoorTotal assets turnover 2.00x 2.00x 2.50x PoorDebt/assets 30.00% 40.34% 36.00% OKTimes interest earned

6.25x 7.81x 9.40x Poor

Current ratio 2.50x 1.75x 3.00x PoorPayout ratio 30.00% 30.00% 30.00% OK

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What was the net investment in operating capital?

• OC2006 = NOWC + Net FA

= $625 - $125 + $625= $1,125

• OC2005 = $900

• Net investment in OC = $1,125 - $900

= $225

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How much free cash flow is expected to be generated in 2006?

FCF = NOPAT – Net inv. in OC= EBIT (1 – T) – Net inv. in OC= $125 (0.6) – $225= $75 – $225= -$150.

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Suppose fixed assets had only been operating at 85% of capacity in 2005

• The maximum amount of sales that can be supported by the 2005 level of assets is:– Capacity sales = Actual sales / % of capacity

= $2,000 / 0.85 = $2,353

• 2006 forecast sales exceed the capacity sales, so new fixed assets are required to support 2006 sales.

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How can excess capacity affect the forecasted ratios?

• Sales wouldn’t change but assets would be lower, so turnovers would improve.

• Less new debt, hence lower interest and higher profits– EPS, ROE, debt ratio, and TIE would improve.

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How would the following items affect the AFN?

• Higher dividend payout ratio?– Increase AFN: Less retained earnings.

• Higher profit margin?– Decrease AFN: Higher profits, more retained

earnings.• Higher capital intensity ratio?

– Increase AFN: Need more assets for given sales.

• Pay suppliers in 60 days, rather than 30 days?– Decrease AFN: Trade creditors supply more capital (i.e.,

L*/S0 increases).Bina Nusantara University 18

Closing• Peramalan laporan keuangan adalah bagian

penting dari proses perencanaan keuangan. Baik investor maupun perusahaan secara teratur menggunakan teknik peramalan untuk membantu penentuan nilai saham perusahaan.

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