Performance of the National Air Quality Performance of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability, Urban vs. Rural Forecast Capability, Urban vs. Rural

and Other Comparisonsand Other ComparisonsJerry Gorline and Jeff McQueenJerry Gorline and Jeff McQueen

Jerry Gorline, NWS/OST/MDLJerry Gorline, NWS/OST/MDL

Meteorological Development LaboratoryMeteorological Development Laboratory

NOAA, Silver Spring, MarylandNOAA, Silver Spring, Maryland

Jeff McQueen, NWS/NCEPJeff McQueen, NWS/NCEP

National Centers for Environmental PredictionNational Centers for Environmental Prediction

NOAA, Camp Springs, MarylandNOAA, Camp Springs, Maryland

OZONE, 1200 UTC cycleOZONE, 1200 UTC cycle

48-h experimental, 8-h (daily max)48-h experimental, 8-h (daily max)

CB05 chemical mechanismCB05 chemical mechanism AEROSOLS, 0600 UTC cycleAEROSOLS, 0600 UTC cycle

48-h developmental, 1-h (daily max)48-h developmental, 1-h (daily max)

CB05, AERO-4 aerosol moduleCB05, AERO-4 aerosol module

The NAM driven Community Multi-The NAM driven Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model

EPA provided urban/rural classifications EPA provided urban/rural classifications and elevation information over CONUSand elevation information over CONUS

observing sites: observing sites: ozone: 1,211 aerosols: 716ozone: 1,211 aerosols: 716urban areas shape file from U.S. Censusurban areas shape file from U.S. Census note: these results are preliminarynote: these results are preliminary

Performance of the National Air Quality Performance of the National Air Quality Forecast Capability, comparisons:Forecast Capability, comparisons:

urban vs. ruralurban vs. rurallow vs. high elevation (>250 m)low vs. high elevation (>250 m)

coastal vs. inland (NE ozone only)coastal vs. inland (NE ozone only)

2x2 contingency definitions

ObservedYes No

Predicted Yes a byy yn

No c dny nn

FC = (a + d)/(a + b + c + d) TS = a /(a + b + c) Thresholds Used: POD = a/(a + c) Ozone: 76 ppb FAR = b/(a + b) Aerosols: 35 ug/m3

Number of observed values higher than Number of observed values higher than 76 ppb threshold, 1200 UTC experimental76 ppb threshold, 1200 UTC experimental

8-h ozone, by region, Jun 15 – Aug 318-h ozone, by region, Jun 15 – Aug 31

500 mb height weather map 500 mb height weather map July 21, 2011July 21, 2011

Strong ridge in eastern U.S.very warm/moist air

T.S. Bret

5880 m

Daily max, 8-h ozone, July 21, 2011Daily max, 8-h ozone, July 21, 20111200 UTC experimental1200 UTC experimental

predicted in dark blueobserved as red dots

FC=0.755TS=0.186POD=0.810FAR=0.805CASES: 84

Daily max, 8-h ozone, July 22, 2011Daily max, 8-h ozone, July 22, 20111200 UTC experimental1200 UTC experimental

predicted in dark blueobserved as red dots

FC=0.823TS=0.265POD=0.776FAR=0.713CASES: 98

Daily max 8-h ozone, July 17-24, 2011Daily max 8-h ozone, July 17-24, 2011urban (red) vs. rural (blue) sitesurban (red) vs. rural (blue) sites

ruralFC=0.843TS=0.191POD=0.865FAR=0.803

urbanFC=0.827TS=0.141POD=0.966FAR=0.858

Daily max 8-h ozone, July 17-24, 2011Daily max 8-h ozone, July 17-24, 2011high elev (red) vs. low elev (blue) siteshigh elev (red) vs. low elev (blue) sites

high elev> 250 m

FC=0.780TS=0.152POD=0.773FAR=0.841

low elev0 m

FC=0.833TS=0.150POD=0.888FAR=0.847

Daily max 8-h ozone, July 17-24, 2011Daily max 8-h ozone, July 17-24, 2011inland (red) vs. coastal (green) sitesinland (red) vs. coastal (green) sites

coastalFC=0.747TS=0.351POD=0.935FAR=0.640

inlandFC=0.780TS=0.152POD=0.773FAR=0.841

Blue: urban areas shape file from

U.S. Census

Threat Score vs. # observationsThreat Score vs. # observationsdaily max, 8-h ozone, CONUSdaily max, 8-h ozone, CONUSsummer 2010 (red) 2011 (blue)summer 2010 (red) 2011 (blue)

8-h ozonebetter performance

on active days

Daily max 1-h aerosols, July 17-24, 2011Daily max 1-h aerosols, July 17-24, 2011urban (red) vs. rural (blue) sitesurban (red) vs. rural (blue) sites

urbanFC=0.817TS=0.133POD=0.164FAR=0.586

ruralFC=0.843TS=0.145POD=0.168FAR=0.485

Note: no smoke emissions

Daily max 1-h aerosols, July 17-24, 2011Daily max 1-h aerosols, July 17-24, 2011high elev (red) vs. low elev (blue) siteshigh elev (red) vs. low elev (blue) sites

low elev0 m

FC=0.813TS=0.129POD=0.162FAR=0.612

high elev> 250 m

FC=0.793TS=0.080POD=0.096FAR=0.667

Regional monthly bias of 1-h aerosolsRegional monthly bias of 1-h aerosolsJan 2009 to Aug 2011, 35 ug/mJan 2009 to Aug 2011, 35 ug/m33

Seasonal change in bias Seasonal change in bias summer under-predictionsummer under-prediction

seasonal change in biassummer under-prediction

Daily max 8-h ozone vs. elevationDaily max 8-h ozone vs. elevationJuly 17-24, 2011, Eastern U.S.July 17-24, 2011, Eastern U.S.

predictions (red) vs. observations (green)predictions (red) vs. observations (green)

high elev> 250 m

FC=0.822TS=0.165POD=0.917FAR=0.832

ozone: over-prediction during the summer

low elev0 m

FC=0.833TS=0.150POD=0.888FAR=0.847

Daily max 1-h aerosols vs. elevationDaily max 1-h aerosols vs. elevationJuly 17-24, 2011, Eastern U.S.July 17-24, 2011, Eastern U.S.

predictions (red) vs. observations (green)predictions (red) vs. observations (green)

low elev0 m

FC=0.813TS=0.129POD=0.162FAR=0.612

high elev> 250 m

FC=0.793TS=0.080POD=0.096FAR=0.667

aerosols: under-predictionduring the summer

8-h ozone Regions: (LM, UM, NE, SE), TS and PODFour different time periods

# sitesUrban vs. Rural one week two weeks one month two months

  Jul 17-24 '11 Jul 17-31 '11 Jul 1-31 '11Jun 1 - Jul 31

'11 Rural TS 0.191 0.162 0.163 0.187 136Urban TS 0.141 0.117 0.151 0.186 329

Urban POD 0.966 0.917 0.708 0.661Rural POD 0.865 0.878 0.743 0.607

Low vs. High Elev

  Jul 17-24 '11 Jul 17-31 '11 Jul 1-31 '11Jun 1 - Jul 31

'11 Low Elev TS 0.150 0.122 0.148 0.176 574High Elev TS 0.165 0.145 0.163 0.174 87

Low Elev POD 0.888 0.865 0.708 0.622High Elev POD 0.917 0.871 0.697 0.534

*Coast vs. *Inland

  Jul 17-24 '11 Jul 17-31 '11 Jul 1-31 '11Jun 1 - Jul 31

'11Coastal TS 0.351 0.293 0.270 0.316 84 Inland TS 0.152 0.131 0.109 0.145 60

Coastal POD 0.935 0.922 0.792 0.758Inland POD 0.773 0.773 0.500 0.524

*NE region only

1-h aerosols Regions: (LM, UM, NE, SE), TS and PODFour different time periods

# sitesUrban vs. Rural one week two weeks one month two months

  Jul 17-24 '11 Jul 17-31 '11 Jul 1-31 '11 Jun 1-Jul 31 '11 Rural TS 0.145 0.122 0.085 0.084 105Urban TS 0.133 0.111 0.117 0.107 138

Rural POD 0.168 0.142 0.100 0.099Urban POD 0.164 0.150 0.151 0.140

Low vs. High Elev

  Jul 17-24 '11 Jul 17-31 '11 Jul 1-31 '11 Jun 1-Jul 31 '11 Low Elev TS 0.129 0.116 0.116 0.117 256High Elev TS 0.080 0.063 0.124 0.106 62

Low Elev POD 0.162 0.160 0.154 0.153High Elev POD 0.096 0.078 0.145 0.124

SummaryOzone: higher TS on coast compared to inland (NE), low elevation: over-prediction in the summer. Aerosols: higher TS at low elevation, lower POD than w/ ozone, under-prediction in the summer.

remove rural sites that are too close to remove rural sites that are too close to urban areas, may have affected results.urban areas, may have affected results.

compare by region, especially for the compare by region, especially for the Pacific Coast (PC) region.Pacific Coast (PC) region.

for aerosols, compare winter vs. for aerosols, compare winter vs. summer, urban/rural, low/high elev.summer, urban/rural, low/high elev.

compare different model compare different model configurations, NMM-B, 4 km.configurations, NMM-B, 4 km.

expand inland vs. coast comparison to expand inland vs. coast comparison to include entire U.S. east coast.include entire U.S. east coast.

Suggestions for future work: Suggestions for future work: