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Period Ended September 2017
H.J.Scott & Co. Cautious Portfolio - All dates
Self Managed
Portfolio Peer Review
Performance Report
www.suggestus.com
Contents
Welcome .......................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3
Portfolio Information .....................................................................................................................................................................................3
Report Summary ............................................................................................................................................................................................ 4
Performance Grade (Period Ended Jun 17) ............................................................................................................................................ 4
Portfolio Data .................................................................................................................................................................................................5
Derived Portfolio Data .................................................................................................................................................................................. 6
Asset Allocation .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 7
Asset Allocation History ................................................................................................................................................................................8
Cumulative Returns (94 months to Sep 17) ............................................................................................................................................ 9
Period Returns .............................................................................................................................................................................................. 10
Period Returns - Relative to Sterling Cautious Reference Index ......................................................................................................11
Period Returns - Relative to ARC GBP Cautious PCI ...........................................................................................................................12
Return Distribution ...................................................................................................................................................................................... 13
Portfolio Risk Analysis ................................................................................................................................................................................. 14
Volatility Analysis ..........................................................................................................................................................................................15
Portfolio Peer Group Classification ..........................................................................................................................................................16
Asset Allocation Cross-check ....................................................................................................................................................................16
Performance versus Peer Group Universe (Period Ended Jun 17) ..................................................................................................17
Trend of Relative Performance versus Peer Group (Period Ended Jun 17) .................................................................................. 18
About Self Managed ...................................................................................................................................................................................19
Frequently Asked Questions ..................................................................................................................................................................... 20
About Suggestus Performance Grades ..................................................................................................................................................21
About Us ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 21
Important Information - Disclaimer ........................................................................................................................................................ 21
Page 2
Suggestus is a free website devoted exclusively to research, and does not offer any transactional facilities, or offer any advice
on investments to its users. Any reports generated are based on historic data compiled by the user and with reference to
public sources and relevant investment manager performance figures. Neither Suggestus nor Asset Risk Consultants ('ARC')
Limited has verified the monthly or quarterly performance data. Please see final page of report for full disclaimer.
H.J.Scott & Co. Cautious Portfolio - All dates
Self Managed
Period Ended September 2017
Welcome
This Portfolio Peer Review (PPR) is a snapshot, designed to place the returns achieved by the Portfolio into context;
assist wealth advisers and trustees meet their regulatory requirements for on-going portfolio performance monitoring;
and help the investor assess Portfolio performance.
This PPR provides an independent and objective assessment of the performance characteristics of the Portfolio in both
absolute terms and relative to any specified Benchmarks and a Peer Group. The multi-asset portfolio peer group is
based on data provided to Asset Risk Consultants (ARC) to calculate the PCI. The Peer Group can be chosen by the
user or automatically set based on the risk profile of the Portfolio.
Understanding how the Portfolio has performed versus an appropriate peer group is vital to ensure that the Portfolio
(whether self-selected or professionally managed) is delivering results within an acceptable risk/return range. The
historical differential between the best and worst performing portfolios is substantial. The PPR puts the investor in
control of the facts and enables them to consider if any action is needed.
The Peer Group Category has been set by user preference to ARC GBP Cautious PCI. The auto-calculated Peer Group Category would have
been ARC GBP Balanced Asset PCI.
**
The "Analysis End Date" is used on all sections of the report except where otherwise stated. The performance data shown for the peer group
indices for Jul 17, Aug 17, Sep 17 are estimates. These estimates are displayed in purple within tables and as dotted lines or footnotes for charts.
*
Returns Frequency: GBPMonthly
Manager: Self Managed
Reporting Currency:
GBP 120,698 as of 29 Sep 2017
Portfolio Information
03 Nov 2009Analysis Start Date: Analysis End Date:* 29 Sep 2017
0.57 times
Value:
Risk Relative to Equities:NetPerformance Basis:
Management Basis: Self-Managed Peer Group Category:** ARC GBP Cautious PCI
Not setTarget Return:Benchmark:Sterling Cautious Reference
Index
IMPORTANT NOTE
THIS REPORT IS EXCLUSIVELY FOR USE BY THE CLIENT AND THE ADVISER. IT MUST NOT BE USED FOR ANY MARKETING OR
PROMOTIONAL PURPOSE. IF YOU WISH TO MAKE FURTHER USE OF THIS REPORT YOU SHOULD CONTACT
Page 3
Suggestus is a free website devoted exclusively to research, and does not offer any transactional facilities, or offer any advice
on investments to its users. Any reports generated are based on historic data compiled by the user and with reference to
public sources and relevant investment manager performance figures. Neither Suggestus nor Asset Risk Consultants ('ARC')
Limited has verified the monthly or quarterly performance data. Please see final page of report for full disclaimer.
H.J.Scott & Co. Cautious Portfolio - All dates
Self Managed
Period Ended September 2017
Report Summary
This PPR report suggests the following:
Over the 94 months the Portfolio has out-performed the Cash rate and has out-performed the Benchmark
as measured by the Sterling Cautious Reference Index.
Over the last 12 months ended Jun 17 the return of the Portfolio is in the 1st quartile versus the peer
group.
Over the 91 months ended Jun 17 the return of the Portfolio is in the 1st quartile versus the peer group.
Over the 94 months under review the Portfolio returned 59.3% and has out-performed the peer group as
measured by the ARC GBP Cautious PCI.
The performance dynamics suggest this Portfolio is 0.57 times as risky as a pure equity portfolio.
Performance is a tricky notion to define. How does an investor know if their portfolio is OK?
The Performance Grade analyses the risk a portfolio has exhibited, looks at the returns it has made, and compares risk-
adjusted returns to a group of similar portfolios. Similar portfolios are those that have the same reference currency and
comparable risk characteristics. The Performance Grade is essentially a Sharpe ratio ranking, with one of six grades A
(highest) to F (lowest) applied to the Portfolio.
The parameters for each grade can be seen on the final page of the report. To calculate this grade accurately, a
minimum of 18 months performance to the current quarter end is required. If less data is available, the rating will be
greyscale not colour and should be considered indicative.
Performance Grade (Period Ended Jun 17)
The Portfolio’s risk-adjusted performance over 60 months to Jun 17 is
ranked between 30% and 60% of portfolios in the ARC GBP Cautious PCI
universe and has been in line with this peer group average.
FEDCBA
Page 4
Suggestus is a free website devoted exclusively to research, and does not offer any transactional facilities, or offer any advice
on investments to its users. Any reports generated are based on historic data compiled by the user and with reference to
public sources and relevant investment manager performance figures. Neither Suggestus nor Asset Risk Consultants ('ARC')
Limited has verified the monthly or quarterly performance data. Please see final page of report for full disclaimer.
H.J.Scott & Co. Cautious Portfolio - All dates
Self Managed
Period Ended September 2017
Portfolio Value History & Cash Movements (GBP)
The chart and table below respectively set out the valuations and cash movements supplied for the Portfolio. Please
check the data input for this Portfolio is correct.
Portfolio Data
Dec 09 Jun 10 Dec 10 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 Jun 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 15 Jun 16 Dec 16 Jun 17
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
GB
P
Transfer InAddition76,654.21GBP03/11/09
DescriptionTypeAmountCcyDateDescriptionTypeAmountCcyDate
Cash Movement History (Latest 20)
10.0GBP Cash
30.0iShares UK Gilts 0-5yr10.0UBS ETFs plc HFRX GlHdgFd Idx GBP
15.0db x-trackers FTSE All-Share10.0iShares Core MSCI World
15.0iShares Core Corporate Bond10.0iShares Core UK Gilts
%Constituent%Constituent
Benchmark Composition
Page 5
Suggestus is a free website devoted exclusively to research, and does not offer any transactional facilities, or offer any advice
on investments to its users. Any reports generated are based on historic data compiled by the user and with reference to
public sources and relevant investment manager performance figures. Neither Suggestus nor Asset Risk Consultants ('ARC')
Limited has verified the monthly or quarterly performance data. Please see final page of report for full disclaimer.
H.J.Scott & Co. Cautious Portfolio - All dates
Self Managed
Period Ended September 2017
Derived Portfolio Data
5.5(0.7)0.80.7(1.0)2.30.40.33.1(0.5)2017
2.01.7(0.3)(0.7)0.60.43.6(0.9)0.2(1.0)2.1(0.3)(3.3)2016
5.40.31.03.2(1.9)(2.0)0.9(2.4)1.7(0.3)1.50.53.02015
6.70.01.91.00.01.00.10.40.40.2(0.6)2.9(0.9)2014
9.90.8(1.7)2.50.4(1.7)5.0(4.1)(0.2)1.02.61.63.62013
5.90.30.60.0(1.1)1.52.21.4(2.9)(0.8)(0.3)1.53.62012
2.61.2(2.5)3.3(2.2)0.6(0.1)0.50.70.90.11.1(0.9)2011
8.63.6(0.4)0.22.51.41.2(1.2)(2.1)(0.3)3.31.1(0.9)2010
1.42009
YTDDecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJanYear
Portfolio Performance (GBP %)
Monetary Change (GBP)
-17,3426,2581,019Monetary Change (GBP)
----Net Cashflow (GBP)
120,698120,698120,698120,698End Value (GBP)
-103,356114,440119,679Start Value (GBP)
Since Nov 093 YearYTDQTD
Cash Movement Summary (GBP)
------Total Charges
------Total Expenses
------Outflows (GBP)
------Inflows (GBP)
YTD20162015201420132012
Charges have averaged 0.0% and expenses 0.0% of the Portfolio value over the last 5 calendar years.
Derived Portfolio Data Comments:
Page 6
Suggestus is a free website devoted exclusively to research, and does not offer any transactional facilities, or offer any advice
on investments to its users. Any reports generated are based on historic data compiled by the user and with reference to
public sources and relevant investment manager performance figures. Neither Suggestus nor Asset Risk Consultants ('ARC')
Limited has verified the monthly or quarterly performance data. Please see final page of report for full disclaimer.
H.J.Scott & Co. Cautious Portfolio - All dates
Self Managed
Period Ended September 2017
Allocation
(40.0)%
(20.0)%
0.0%
20.0%A
lloca
tio
n %
Cash Fixed Income Other Equities
Cash - 36.5% Fixed Income - 0.0% Other - 17.5%
Equities - 46.0%
Relative to BenchmarkPortfolio
The current asset allocation pie chart shows the asset class split of the Portfolio in broad terms, i.e. the Portfolio’s
invested allocation between equity, fixed income, cash and "other" assets. “Other” assets would typically include such
asset classes as property, hedge funds, private equity, gold, commodities and structured products.
The two relative asset allocation charts below show the current and historical differences in the Portfolio’s asset
allocation against the asset allocation of the Sterling Cautious Reference Index. A difference in asset allocation of 20%
or more, positive or negative, indicates a significant deviation from the Sterling Cautious Reference Index.
Asset Allocation
Historical Asset Allocation Relative to Sterling Cautious Reference Index
Dec 09 Jun 10 Dec 10 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 Dec 13 Dec 14 Dec 15 Dec 16
(50.0)%
(40.0)%
(20.0)%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
Rela
tive
Allo
cati
on
%
Cash Fixed Income Other Equities
Asset Allocation as at Sep 17
Page 7
Suggestus is a free website devoted exclusively to research, and does not offer any transactional facilities, or offer any advice
on investments to its users. Any reports generated are based on historic data compiled by the user and with reference to
public sources and relevant investment manager performance figures. Neither Suggestus nor Asset Risk Consultants ('ARC')
Limited has verified the monthly or quarterly performance data. Please see final page of report for full disclaimer.
H.J.Scott & Co. Cautious Portfolio - All dates
Self Managed
Period Ended September 2017
Portfolio Asset Allocation History
The asset allocation history chart below shows how the Portfolio’s investment between broad asset classes has changed
over time. Where a portfolio is invested in collective investment vehicles (i.e. funds) the asset allocation should be
broken down into the constituent allocations where possible and practicable. The chart may provide an indication into
how actively a portfolio is managed, but note there may be investment changes ‘behind’ the broad asset classification,
such as sector, duration or style biases.
Asset Allocation History
Dec 09 Jun 10 Dec 10 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 Jun 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 15 Jun 16 Dec 16 Jun 17
0.0%
50.0%
100.0%
Allo
cati
on
%
Cash Fixed Income Other Equities
The average asset allocation profile suggests that the Portfolio might better be compared to the ARC GBP
Balanced Asset PCI peer group universe.
The average equity exposure of the Portfolio was 42.6%, max was 64.0%, min was 17.4%.
The average exposure to other assets of the Portfolio was 22.3%, max was 40.4%, min was 0.0%.
The average fixed income exposure of the Portfolio was 14.0%, max was 54.1%, min was 0.0%.
The average cash exposure of the Portfolio was 21.1%, max was 81.9%, min was 3.6%.
Asset Allocation History Comments:
Page 8
Suggestus is a free website devoted exclusively to research, and does not offer any transactional facilities, or offer any advice
on investments to its users. Any reports generated are based on historic data compiled by the user and with reference to
public sources and relevant investment manager performance figures. Neither Suggestus nor Asset Risk Consultants ('ARC')
Limited has verified the monthly or quarterly performance data. Please see final page of report for full disclaimer.
H.J.Scott & Co. Cautious Portfolio - All dates
Self Managed
Period Ended September 2017
The chart below can be used to visualise the return pattern of the Portfolio and how it compares with the risk profiles
represented by the ARC Private Client Indices (PCI), any specified benchmarks and GBP Cash. The pattern of historical
performance on the chart can give an insight into the “style” of the Portfolio. For example, the Portfolio might typically
follow the peer group or benchmark in rising markets, but out-perform during times of market stress.
Cumulative Returns (94 months to Sep 17)
Dec 09 Jun 10 Dec 10 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 Jun 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 15 Jun 16 Dec 16 Jun 17
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Cu
mu
lati
ve R
etu
rn %
H.J.Scott & Co. Cautious Portfolio - All dates Sterling Cautious Reference Index ARC GBP Cautious PCI GBP Cash
Cumulative Returns (%)
The Portfolio has out-performed GBP Cash which has been 3.0%.
The Portfolio has out-performed the ARC GBP Cautious PCI which returned 35.8%.
The Portfolio has out-performed the Sterling Cautious Reference Index which returned 41.3%.
The cumulative return of the Portfolio has been 59.3%.
Cumulative Return Comments:
Page 9
Suggestus is a free website devoted exclusively to research, and does not offer any transactional facilities, or offer any advice
on investments to its users. Any reports generated are based on historic data compiled by the user and with reference to
public sources and relevant investment manager performance figures. Neither Suggestus nor Asset Risk Consultants ('ARC')
Limited has verified the monthly or quarterly performance data. Please see final page of report for full disclaimer.
H.J.Scott & Co. Cautious Portfolio - All dates
Self Managed
Period Ended September 2017
Analysing the variability of returns over the period under review, roughly once a year the Portfolio might be
expected to change in value by more than 2.8% in a single month.
Returns highlighted in orange in the table are unusually negative and occur in months Jun 13, Jan 16.
Returns highlighted in yellow in the table are unusually positive and occur in months Jan 13, Jul 13, Feb 14, Jan
15, Oct 15, Jul 16, Feb 17.
The highest monthly return was 5.0% in Jul 13. The worst monthly return was (4.1)% in Jun 13.
Of the 94 months observed, 62 were positive and 32 were negative.
Period Return Comments:
5.5(0.7)0.80.7(1.0)2.30.40.33.1(0.5)2017
2.01.7(0.3)(0.7)0.60.43.6(0.9)0.2(1.0)2.1(0.3)(3.3)2016
5.40.31.03.2(1.9)(2.0)0.9(2.4)1.7(0.3)1.50.53.02015
6.70.01.91.00.01.00.10.40.40.2(0.6)2.9(0.9)2014
9.90.8(1.7)2.50.4(1.7)5.0(4.1)(0.2)1.02.61.63.62013
YTDDecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJanYear
Portfolio Performance (%)
Portfolio Monthly Returns (%)
The chart and table below set out the monthly returns recorded by the Portfolio from Nov 2009 to Sep 2017. Periods
of more volatile returns can easily be identified. A solitary, unusually large gain or loss may be indicative of a data error.
Note that significant inflows or outflows from a portfolio can cause performance calculation anomalies.
Period Returns
Dec 09 Jun 10 Dec 10 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 Jun 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 15 Jun 16 Dec 16 Jun 17
-4
-2
0
2
4
Mo
nth
ly R
etu
rn %
Page 10
Suggestus is a free website devoted exclusively to research, and does not offer any transactional facilities, or offer any advice
on investments to its users. Any reports generated are based on historic data compiled by the user and with reference to
public sources and relevant investment manager performance figures. Neither Suggestus nor Asset Risk Consultants ('ARC')
Limited has verified the monthly or quarterly performance data. Please see final page of report for full disclaimer.
H.J.Scott & Co. Cautious Portfolio - All dates
Self Managed
Period Ended September 2017
Period Returns - Relative to Sterling Cautious Reference Index
The relative return chart highlights periods where the Portfolio out or under-performed the Sterling Cautious Reference
Index. Bars below the line represent under-performance. Bars above the line show out-performance.
The relative return table beneath highlights in yellow the months where out or under-performance of the Portfolio
relative to the Sterling Cautious Reference Index was more than two percentage points indicating a significant
difference in the relative returns.
Monthly Returns Relative to Sterling Cautious Reference Index (%)
Dec 09 Jun 10 Dec 10 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 Jun 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 15 Jun 16 Dec 16 Jun 17
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Mo
nth
ly R
etu
rns
%
Portfolio Performance Relative to Sterling Cautious Reference Index (%)
3.40.4(0.1)0.10.01.10.50.11.3(0.1)2017
(6.8)(0.1)0.30.10.7(0.7)1.1(3.4)(0.4)(1.1)1.0(0.8)(3.1)2016
5.21.00.41.8(1.2)(0.3)(0.2)(0.1)1.20.10.90.61.12015
1.5(0.1)0.20.60.7(0.8)0.10.8(0.4)(0.4)(0.1)1.5(0.7)2014
4.90.8(1.3)0.9(0.2)(0.5)2.8(1.8)(0.1)0.21.50.52.22013
YTDDecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJanYear
Significant relative out or under-performance occurred in 8 months out of 94 months.
The worst under-performance was (3.4)% in Jun 16.
The greatest out-performance was 2.9% in Aug 11.
Over 94 months, the Portfolio out-performed the Sterling Cautious Reference Index in 51 months.
Relative Return Comments:
Page 11
Suggestus is a free website devoted exclusively to research, and does not offer any transactional facilities, or offer any advice
on investments to its users. Any reports generated are based on historic data compiled by the user and with reference to
public sources and relevant investment manager performance figures. Neither Suggestus nor Asset Risk Consultants ('ARC')
Limited has verified the monthly or quarterly performance data. Please see final page of report for full disclaimer.
H.J.Scott & Co. Cautious Portfolio - All dates
Self Managed
Period Ended September 2017
Period Returns - Relative to ARC GBP Cautious PCI
The relative return chart highlights periods where the Portfolio out or under-performed the average PCI discretionary
manager. Bars below the line represent under-performance. Bars above the line show out-performance.
The relative return table beneath highlights in yellow the months where out or under-performance of the Portfolio
relative to the ARC GBP Cautious PCI was more than two percentage points indicating a significant difference in the
relative returns.
Monthly Returns Relative to ARC GBP Cautious PCI (%)
Dec 09 Jun 10 Dec 10 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 Jun 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 15 Jun 16 Dec 16 Jun 17
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
Mo
nth
ly R
etu
rns
%
This chart includes estimated ARC PCI data for the months Jul 17, Aug 17, Sep 17
Portfolio Performance Relative to ARC GBP Cautious PCI (%)
2.50.20.00.1(0.4)1.10.20.01.9(0.6)2017
(3.5)0.30.6(1.0)0.4(0.6)1.7(1.6)(0.2)(1.2)1.2(0.7)(2.3)2016
4.10.70.61.9(1.3)(0.6)0.4(0.6)1.1(0.2)0.8(0.2)1.52015
2.70.20.40.80.6(0.2)0.20.6(0.5)0.0(0.6)1.7(0.6)2014
4.90.6(1.4)0.90.1(0.7)3.4(2.0)(0.3)0.51.60.21.92013
YTDDecNovOctSepAugJulJunMayAprMarFebJanYear
Significant relative out or under-performance occurred in 5 months out of 94 months.
The worst under-performance was (2.3)% in Jan 16.
The greatest out-performance was 3.4% in Jul 13.
Over 94 months, the Portfolio out-performed the ARC GBP Cautious PCI in 49 months.
Relative Return Comments:
Page 12
Suggestus is a free website devoted exclusively to research, and does not offer any transactional facilities, or offer any advice
on investments to its users. Any reports generated are based on historic data compiled by the user and with reference to
public sources and relevant investment manager performance figures. Neither Suggestus nor Asset Risk Consultants ('ARC')
Limited has verified the monthly or quarterly performance data. Please see final page of report for full disclaimer.
H.J.Scott & Co. Cautious Portfolio - All dates
Self Managed
Period Ended September 2017
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Monthly Returns %
0
20.5
41
Freq
uen
cy o
f R
etu
rns
H.J.Scott & Co. Cautious Portfolio - All dates Sterling Cautious Reference Index
Statistically, the monthly returns suggest the Portfolio has experienced more strongly negative months than
strongly positive months, a common feature of financial markets.
The average monthly return from the Portfolio is 0.5%. The Portfolio's most common return range is 0.0% -
1.0% per month.
Return Distribution Comments:
Distribution of Returns Portfolio v Peer Group (94 Months)
The histograms below illustrate the spread of monthly returns and are constructed by breaking down the monthly
returns into ranges and plotting the number of returns in each range. The more “peaked” the distribution, the lower the
volatility of returns over the period.
A key feature of financial markets is that they tend to move upwards in small increments and downward in significant
moves, which tends to create a long tail to the left. Active managers can use derivatives and market timing to try to
counteract this effect.
Return Distribution
-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Monthly Returns %
0
20.5
41
Freq
uen
cy o
f R
etu
rns
This chart includes estimated ARC PCI data for the months Jul 17, Aug 17, Sep 17
H.J.Scott & Co. Cautious Portfolio - All dates ARC GBP Cautious PCI
Distribution of Returns Portfolio v Benchmark (94 Months)
Page 13
Suggestus is a free website devoted exclusively to research, and does not offer any transactional facilities, or offer any advice
on investments to its users. Any reports generated are based on historic data compiled by the user and with reference to
public sources and relevant investment manager performance figures. Neither Suggestus nor Asset Risk Consultants ('ARC')
Limited has verified the monthly or quarterly performance data. Please see final page of report for full disclaimer.
H.J.Scott & Co. Cautious Portfolio - All dates
Self Managed
Period Ended September 2017
* ARC PCI data estimated for Jul 17, Aug 17, Sep 17
Risk Analysis Comments:
The Portfolio is currently 0.7% below its all time high which was reached in Aug 17.
The longest period the Portfolio was below its previous peak was 15 months, compared with 13 months for
ARC GBP Cautious PCI and 12 months for the Sterling Cautious Reference Index.
Dec 09 Jun 10 Dec 10 Jun 11 Dec 11 Jun 12 Dec 12 Jun 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 15 Jun 16 Dec 16 Jun 17
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
Loss
%
H.J.Scott & Co. Cautious Portfolio - All dates Sterling Cautious Reference Index ARC GBP Cautious PCI
Portfolio Risk Analysis
The bear market history or ‘Bear's Teeth’ chart plots the extent of mark-to-market valuation declines experienced by
the Portfolio, Sterling Cautious Reference Index and the ARC GBP Cautious PCI during bear market periods.
A negative return in any month results in a downward spike commencing on the graph. The bigger the tooth, the
greater the loss. The wider the tooth, the longer the recovery period.
Bear Market History (%)
----52.1Percent outperf. months
(3.2)3.267.060.663.8Percent positive months
(1.7)(1.4)(1.6)(1.9)(3.3)Worst 12 month period
4.94.29.310.014.2Best 12 month period
2.72.23.23.75.9Ann. standard deviation (94 mths)
(1.5)(1.9)(3.9)(3.5)(5.4)Maximum decline
(2.0)(1.8)(2.1)(2.3)(4.1)Worst month
Portfolio v
Peer Group
Portfolio v
BenchmarkPeer GroupBenchmarkPortfolioStatistic
Page 14
Suggestus is a free website devoted exclusively to research, and does not offer any transactional facilities, or offer any advice
on investments to its users. Any reports generated are based on historic data compiled by the user and with reference to
public sources and relevant investment manager performance figures. Neither Suggestus nor Asset Risk Consultants ('ARC')
Limited has verified the monthly or quarterly performance data. Please see final page of report for full disclaimer.
H.J.Scott & Co. Cautious Portfolio - All dates
Self Managed
Period Ended September 2017
36 Month Rolling Annualised Standard Deviation (%)
Volatility is the conventional industry definition for financial market risk, usually calculated as the annualised standard
deviation. This statistic measures the expected range of returns over time.
The chart below plots the evolution of the volatility of the Portfolio over time as the annualised standard deviation of
Portfolio returns around the cash rate. For comparative purposes the peer group and any specified benchmark are
plotted along with the Portfolio.
Volatility Analysis
Dec 12 Jun 13 Dec 13 Jun 14 Dec 14 Jun 15 Dec 15 Jun 16 Dec 16 Jun 17
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
An
n S
tan
dard
Devi
ati
on
%
H.J.Scott & Co. Cautious Portfolio - All dates Sterling Cautious Reference Index ARC GBP Cautious PCI
The chart shows, on average, the Portfolio has been more volatile than the Sterling Cautious Reference Index,
so it would be expected that in falling markets the Portfolio might under-perform the Benchmark.
The chart shows, on average, the Portfolio has been more volatile than the ARC GBP Cautious PCI, so it would
be expected that in falling markets the Portfolio might under-perform the peer group.
Taking the period as a whole, the annualised standard deviation for the Portfolio has been 5.9%.
The lowest 36 month annualised standard deviation estimated for the Portfolio was 5.3% in Nov 16.
The estimated 36 month annualised standard deviation of the Portfolio peaked at 6.9% in Nov 13.
Volatility Comments:
Page 15
Suggestus is a free website devoted exclusively to research, and does not offer any transactional facilities, or offer any advice
on investments to its users. Any reports generated are based on historic data compiled by the user and with reference to
public sources and relevant investment manager performance figures. Neither Suggestus nor Asset Risk Consultants ('ARC')
Limited has verified the monthly or quarterly performance data. Please see final page of report for full disclaimer.
H.J.Scott & Co. Cautious Portfolio - All dates
Self Managed
Period Ended September 2017
Portfolio Peer Group Classification
ARC PCI is a set of risk-based indices designed to be used by private client and their advisers in assessing the
performance of any discretionary portfolio or multi-asset fund with a non-specialist mandate.
80 - 110ARC GBP Equity Risk PCI
60 - 80ARC GBP Steady Growth PCI
40 - 60ARC GBP Balanced Asset PCI
0 - 40ARC GBP Cautious PCI
Relative Risk to Equity Market (%)ARC Private Client Indices (PCI)
There are four ARC PCI indices for each currency, designed specifically for investors with Canadian Dollar, Euro,
Sterling, Swiss Franc or US Dollar as their reference currency. The Peer Group Category has been set by user preference
to ARC GBP Cautious PCI. The auto-calculated Peer Group Category would have been ARC GBP Balanced Asset PCI.
Asset Allocation Cross-check
The asset allocation as at 29 Sep 2017 for the Portfolio is shown below:
46.0Equities
17.5Other
0.0Fixed Income
36.5Cash
Weighting (%)Asset Class
Portfolio Categorisation Comments:
Based on the asset allocation above, using a weighted risk calculation, it would be expected that the Portfolio
would be in the ARC GBP Balanced Asset PCI category. This is the same classification as the category
calculated from the relative risk according to the ARC PCI methodology outlined above.
The user selected Peer Group Category is ARC GBP Cautious PCI. Based on the relative risk for the Portfolio of
0.57 times world equities, the ARC GBP Balanced Asset PCI would have been recommended for the purposes
of this analysis.
Page 16
Suggestus is a free website devoted exclusively to research, and does not offer any transactional facilities, or offer any advice
on investments to its users. Any reports generated are based on historic data compiled by the user and with reference to
public sources and relevant investment manager performance figures. Neither Suggestus nor Asset Risk Consultants ('ARC')
Limited has verified the monthly or quarterly performance data. Please see final page of report for full disclaimer.
H.J.Scott & Co. Cautious Portfolio - All dates
Self Managed
Period Ended September 2017
Performance versus Peer Group Universe (Period Ended Jun 17)
The tables below present quartile return statistics to place Portfolio performance into context versus the ARC GBP
Cautious PCI universe of private client discretionary manager averages.
These tables show which quartile the Portfolio performance sits in, relative to the peer group of private client
discretionary manager averages in the same risk range. Results are shown for various periods to Jun 17. The Portfolio
returns in the last line of each of the three tables below have highlighted backgrounds as follows:
1st Quartile (1st - 25th), 2nd Quartile (26th - 50th), (76th - 100th)(51st - 75th), 4th Quartile3rd Quartile
57.936.517.010.11.6Portfolio
40.726.414.75.70.1Benchmark
33.922.010.94.80.575th Percentile
39.826.112.86.50.750th Percentile
44.028.414.17.70.925th Percentile
91 months5 years3 years1 yearLast quarterPercentiles
Cumulative Returns To Jun 17 (%)
Calendar Year Returns (%)
4.62.05.46.79.9Portfolio
1.78.80.25.25.0Benchmark
1.75.30.63.44.875th Percentile
2.46.01.04.25.950th Percentile
3.27.61.64.76.425th Percentile
YTD2016201520142013Percentiles
36 Month Rolling Returns (%)
17.016.414.815.814.912.8Portfolio
14.715.814.715.713.48.2Benchmark
10.911.09.911.28.35.075th Percentile
12.812.711.713.311.27.350th Percentile
14.114.713.514.212.18.425th Percentile
Q2 2017Q1 2017Q4 2016Q3 2016Q2 2016Q1 2016Percentiles
Portfolio Performance Comments:
Over the last 5 years the return of the Portfolio is in the 1st quartile versus the peer group.
Over the last 3 years the return of the Portfolio is in the 1st quartile versus the peer group.
Over the last 1 year the return of the Portfolio is in the 1st quartile versus the peer group.
The Portfolio has exhibited 1st quartile performance since the start of the reporting period.
Page 17
Suggestus is a free website devoted exclusively to research, and does not offer any transactional facilities, or offer any advice
on investments to its users. Any reports generated are based on historic data compiled by the user and with reference to
public sources and relevant investment manager performance figures. Neither Suggestus nor Asset Risk Consultants ('ARC')
Limited has verified the monthly or quarterly performance data. Please see final page of report for full disclaimer.
H.J.Scott & Co. Cautious Portfolio - All dates
Self Managed
Period Ended September 2017
Trend of Relative Performance versus Peer Group (Period Ended Jun 17)
1st Quartile (1st - 25th), 2nd Quartile (26th - 50th), (76th - 100th)(51st - 75th), 4th Quartile3rd Quartile
Portfolio Quartile Performance 36 Month Rolling
1st1st1st1st1st1st
Q2 2017Q1 2017Q4 2016Q3 2016Q2 2016Q1 2016
The Portfolio's peer group ranking is based on the performance of the Portfolio versus the ARC GBP Cautious PCI peer
group universe of private client discretionary managers over 36 month rolling periods. The table below shows which
quartile the Portfolio was placed in for the last six quarter ends versus the peer group universe.
The candlestick chart beneath shows the quartile positioning in more detail. For each quarter the range between the
10th and 90th percentiles (thin line) and the 25th and 75th percentiles (the body) is shown. The Portfolio's position is
indicated with an outlined red arrowhead. The height of the candlestick reveals the return dispersion within the peer
group.
Quartile Performance 36 Month Rolling Candlestick Chart
Q1 2016 Q2 2016 Q3 2016 Q4 2016 Q1 2017 Q2 2017
0
5
10
15
20
Retu
rn
H.J.Scott & Co. Cautious Portfolio - All dates Sterling Cautious Reference Index
Candlestick Chart Comment:
The quartile ranking of the Sterling Cautious Reference Index over time has shown reasonable consistency.
The quartile ranking of the Portfolio over time has shown reasonable consistency.
Page 18
Suggestus is a free website devoted exclusively to research, and does not offer any transactional facilities, or offer any advice
on investments to its users. Any reports generated are based on historic data compiled by the user and with reference to
public sources and relevant investment manager performance figures. Neither Suggestus nor Asset Risk Consultants ('ARC')
Limited has verified the monthly or quarterly performance data. Please see final page of report for full disclaimer.
H.J.Scott & Co. Cautious Portfolio - All dates
Self Managed
Period Ended September 2017
About Self ManagedYou have indicated that this portfolio is self managed. By comparing the performance of your portfolio to the PCI, you
can see how well your portfolio is doing versus over 100,000 portfolios being managed by professional investment
managers in the PCI peer group. If your portfolio Performance Grade is worse than C, it might be beneficial to consider
using a discretionary investment manager (DFM) to run the portfolio on your behalf. At suggestus.com we specialise in
understanding the discretionary manager universe and we may be able to assist with the decision over which DFM to
use. Get in touch or ask us a question [email protected]
Investment PhilosophySelf managing a portfolio requires the same level of discipline as a professional discretionary portfolio manager (DFM).
The investment philosophy defines the underlying principles of investing that are being employed when deciding how
to invest the portfolio. For example, do you believe that active managers can outperform markets over the longer term,
if not then you might decide to invest primarily in passive vehicles (e.g. ETFs); do you tend to hold a long term macro-
economic view, leading to a diversified approach perhaps using funds or do you believe in finding value in individual
companies, meaning you would favour a concentrated portfolio of direct equities; you may view alternative investments
as an essential part of a portfolio and therefore have a more multi-asset approach to investing. As well as the general
philosophy it is important to set more specific boundaries for the portfolio. Typically a DFM would agree a risk profile
for the portfolio, a target long term return and a benchmark for ongoing performance comparison; they may also set
asset allocation ranges and concentration limits to prevent the portfolio make-up "creeping" overtime as certain assets
and asset classes out or underperform. This is a good discipline to have for any portfolio as it then sets the background
for ongoing performance analysis.
Brief HistoryOur research suggests that self-managed portfolios tend to under-perform those managed by professional
discretionary investment managers (DFMs). Private clients often choose to self-manage their portfolios, because they
are concerned about the fees that the DFM charges to run the portfolio. The ARC Private Client Indices are calculated
after fees, so the performance figures are representative of the actual returns experienced by the end client. Typically a
DFM will always have an eye to the downside and will aim to minimise losses and maximise gains. As a result there will
be periods, particularly in strongly rising markets, where a DFM may underperform the market. Over the long term and
particularly through more volatile periods, our research shows that DFMs do add value versus a passive strategy.
Page 19
Suggestus is a free website devoted exclusively to research, and does not offer any transactional facilities, or offer any advice
on investments to its users. Any reports generated are based on historic data compiled by the user and with reference to
public sources and relevant investment manager performance figures. Neither Suggestus nor Asset Risk Consultants ('ARC')
Limited has verified the monthly or quarterly performance data. Please see final page of report for full disclaimer.
H.J.Scott & Co. Cautious Portfolio - All dates
Self Managed
Period Ended September 2017
Frequently Asked Questions
How did you decide which ARC PCI to compare the Portfolio against?We use the concept of relative risk to equities to identify the degree of volatility (risk) a portfolio has experienced. We use a relative
measure because this gives you a “window” to see the risk you have taken in context of world stock markets. We have defined 4 risk
categories from Cautious (lower risk) to Equity Risk (higher risk); for example, if a portfolio has exhibited roughly half the risk of
equities (40% to 60%), we would call this a Balanced Asset portfolio. This then informs which group of portfolios, or peer group, we
use to compare your portfolio.
Why use risk to classify portfolios?The idea of the indices is to achieve a methodology that can be used across all investment styles that will categorise portfolios in a
common way. The aim being to ensure that portfolios with similar long-term goals are compared like-for-like, no matter how they
are invested to achieve those goals. The definition by risk relative to equities achieves this without the need to use asset allocation
or the name of the particular mandate that a manager applies to it.
Why don’t you use asset allocation to classify my Portfolio?Asset allocation can be misleading as, for example, the equity portion of a “balanced” portfolio might differ significantly between a
multi-asset class portfolio, an absolute return portfolio and a more traditional equity, fixed income and cash portfolio, but their risk
profile may be very similar. Asset allocation may also be viewed as commercially sensitive by some investment managers and asset
classifications may differ between different investment houses, so there can be some complication in comparing like with like based
on asset allocation.
My Portfolio is not doing as well as the ARC PCI, what should I do?Short term deviation in performance is not unusual and most portfolios will out or under-perform over different periods. However,
long term under-performance or a substantial short term underperformance warrants a comment from the investment manager.
Agree a course of action with the manager and a timeframe for the correction (e.g. 6 months) and re-visit the performance at the
end of the “watch” period. If you manage your own Portfolio, perhaps you should consider using a professional firm.
Can you tell me who the best manager is?Manager selection is as much art as science and our experience has shown that although performance is an important factor,
qualitative considerations such as service quality, reporting capability and risk management are also key ingredients in finding the
best manager for your circumstances. It is important to understand why a manager’s performance looks as it does and to establish
whether this performance is likely to persist.
Is my investment manager part of the ARC PCI?See www.suggestus.com for the full list of managers. The ARC PCI are made available to the end user for free and it is free for
managers to be Data Contributors. Some managers choose to pay to receive analysis from ARC on their client portfolio
performance dynamics. All data contributors benefit from understanding where they sit versus their peer group. Unfortunately, not
all investment managers wish to participate in the ARC PCI.
Do the ARC PCI performance figures include investment manager’s fees?Yes, all the ARC PCI indices are constructed using universes of portfolios where performance is submitted after fees (Annual
management charge, custody fee and VAT). Thus the figures reflect the returns actually received by a client.
For more detailed analysis of your Portfolio please contact [email protected].
Page 20
Suggestus is a free website devoted exclusively to research, and does not offer any transactional facilities, or offer any advice
on investments to its users. Any reports generated are based on historic data compiled by the user and with reference to
public sources and relevant investment manager performance figures. Neither Suggestus nor Asset Risk Consultants ('ARC')
Limited has verified the monthly or quarterly performance data. Please see final page of report for full disclaimer.
H.J.Scott & Co. Cautious Portfolio - All dates
Self Managed
Period Ended September 2017
100ranked in the bottom 5% of portfoliosF
95ranked between 85% and 95% of portfoliosE
85ranked between 60% and 85% of portfoliosD
60ranked between 30% and 60% of portfoliosC
30ranked between 10% and 30% of portfoliosB
10ranked in the top 10% of portfoliosA
Cumulative Perf (%)ARC PCI Universe (%)Performance Grade
About Suggestus Performance GradesThe table below sets out the mark scheme for the Suggestus Performance Grades. Suggestus Performance Grades rank
a portfolio’s risk-adjusted return versus the PCI universe of more than 100,000 private client discretionary portfolios.
The Suggestus Performance Grade requires a minimum of 18 months performance history and is calculated for the
latest five years or since inception if shorter. If the Portfolio has between 12 and 17 months of performance history, the
Suggestus Performance Grade should be considered indicative and is shown in grey not blue.
About UsSuggestus is the research arm of the ARC Group and is an affiliate of Asset Risk Consultants (ARC), a global investment
consulting practice working for a global client base. As an independent, regulated firm ARC has an established track
record in delivering impartial, proactive investment advice to wealthy families and their advisers.
ARC provides private clients, wealth advisers, trusts and charities with the opportunity to access unbiased advice on
how differing investment styles and approaches can be blended to deliver the highest probability of meeting
investment objectives.
Suggestus provides an extensive research capability designed to assist investors and their professional advisers in
making informed investment decisions. The central aim of the Suggestus research function is to help investors get the
best out of the investment management industry.
Important Information - DisclaimerCopyright Asset Risk Consultants Limited (“ARC”). This report has been created on the basis of performance data
collected by ARC, data extracted from public data sources, from iShares, from Lipper Limited, the Client and data
sourced from investment managers. ARC assumes no responsibility for verifying the accuracy or reasonableness of such
data. Accordingly the Client shall hold harmless ARC, its affiliates and its officers to the extent the report is based on
information provided to ARC which proves to have been inaccurate, incomplete or untrue. No responsibility is assumed
by ARC for the performance of the Portfolio or for investigating the suitability of any investment strategy or for the loss
of value of any Portfolio or failure by that Portfolio to meet or exceed any explicit or implicit performance criteria. The
value of investments may go down as well as up and you may not get back the initial sum invested. This document
should not be construed as investment advice and ARC strongly recommends that investors seek advice from a
qualified IFA or investment manager before making any changes to the Portfolio.
SUS Tag: V4.3.0.19735/LIVE/091017110522/200411110/Howard Scott
Page 21
Suggestus is a free website devoted exclusively to research, and does not offer any transactional facilities, or offer any advice
on investments to its users. Any reports generated are based on historic data compiled by the user and with reference to
public sources and relevant investment manager performance figures. Neither Suggestus nor Asset Risk Consultants ('ARC')
Limited has verified the monthly or quarterly performance data. Please see final page of report for full disclaimer.
H.J.Scott & Co. Cautious Portfolio - All dates
Self Managed
Period Ended September 2017