Global Update

ERNEST HAHN

CREATIVITYCONVICTION

COMMITTMENT

STUART HORNERY

MARKET SHARE

“Dare to be different.”

“Challenge the

conventional order.”

REAL GDP GROWTH

YEAR-OVER-YEAR GDP GROWTH (%)

LATIN AMERICA

Real Estate Investment

Market

Professional

Management

CapitalInvestment ReturnOpportunity

- Macro Economy

- Government Policy

- Consumer Purchase Power

- Capital Commitment

- Cost of Capital

- Risk

- Strategy

- Tactics

- Risk Mitigation

- Velocity of capital

- Investment Benchmarks

Source: JLL

Global Retail Real Estate Investment Activity

2004-2006 2020 Projection

Source: Cushman & Wakefield Retail Research & CoStar Group

CHINA SHOPPING CENTER GROWTH (MILLION SQ.M) ASIA (EXCL CHINA) SHOPPING CENTER GLA CURRENT & EXPECTED

(MILLION SQ.M)

EUROPEAN SHOPPING CENTER GROWTH

(MILLION SQ.M) U.S. SHOPPING CENTER GROWTH (MILLION SQ.M)

RETAIL SALES GROWTH2013 vs. 2014

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

Arg

en

tin

a

Au

stra

lia

Bra

zil

Ca

na

da

Ch

ina

De

nm

ark

Fra

nce

Ge

rma

ny

Gre

ece

Ho

ng

Ko

ng

Hu

ng

ary

Ind

ia

Ind

on

esi

a

Ire

lan

d

Isra

el

Ita

ly

Jap

an

Ke

nya

Ma

lays

ia

Me

xico

Ne

the

rla

nd

s

Nig

eri

a

No

rwa

y

Po

lan

d

Po

rtu

ga

l

Ro

ma

nia

Ru

ssia

Sau

di A

rab

ia

Sin

ga

po

re

Sou

th A

fric

a

Sou

th K

ore

a

Spa

in

Swe

de

n

Swit

zerl

an

d

Th

aila

nd

Tu

rke

y

Un

ite

d A

rab

Em

ira

tes

Un

ite

d K

ing

do

m

USA

Source: PriceWaterhouseCoopers – Retail Sales Per Capita

Shifting Demographics

$21 Trillion (today)

Global Middle Class Spending Projections

$56 trillion (2030)

Demography Reshapes Our World

Source: E&Y Research

95%of the next 2 billion

people will live in

developing countries

50%of world population

now living in urban

areas vs…2% in 1800 !

36of the world’s largest

44 cities in 2015 will

be in emerging

markets

17,7% in 2010

12,1% in 2050

(% world population living in

developed countries)

CONSUMPTION

Demographics Psychographics

Shopping with the wife…..

Buckhead Atlanta

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

US UK China Japan Germany France South Korea Brazil Australia Russia

2013

2018

Top 10 Largest Online Retail MarketsAll figures are in US$ bn, values in box represent CAGR (%), 2013-2018

8.2%

10.2%

42.0%

11.3%12.1%

7.5%9.8% 21.6%

6.3%22.6%

Source: Conlumino Global Online Retailing, 2013-2018

16.6%

10.4%9.0% 8.1%

6.9% 6.7% 6.2%5.0% 4.6% 4.1%

US UK South Korea Germany France Australia Japan China Brazil Russia

12.2%

7.9% 7.6%

5.5% 5.5% 5.1%4.0%

2.2% 1.9% 1.6%

US UK South Korea France Germany Australia Japan Brazil Russia China

Online share of retail sales for top 10 countries 2013

Source: Conlumino Global Online Retailing, 2013-2018

Online share of retail sales for top 10 countries 2018

MOBILE BEHAVIOR

INSTANT GRATIFICATION

CONVERGENCE

Athleta Bonobos

Warby ParkereBay Digital Storefront

+ + =

O2O

GLOBAL INSTABILITY

IT’S BEST TO LEARN AS WE GO

NOT GO AS WE HAVE LEARNED

- Leslie Jean Sahler

THANK YOU