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This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent
Perspective on the Nigerian Aviation IndustryAviation Safety Round Table InitiativeQ3 Business Breakfast MeetingLagos 2nd September 2015
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent 2JOH Nigerian Aviation Industry_Bai ...
Key Questions for Nigerian Aviation Industry
•What does Nigeria want to achieve with its aviationIndustry?- Develop the local and regional economy?
- Facilitate inbound and outbound tourism?
- Create the largest West African Hub to support future Nigeria growth?
- …
•How much does the industry / the government wantto spend and how much risk does the industry / theGovernment want to take to turnaround the Aviationindustry in Nigeria?
FOR DISCUSSION
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent 3JOH Nigerian Aviation Industry_Bai ...
Agenda
•Review Air traffic in Africa and Nigeria
•Recent changes to the global airline market
•Discuss Nigeria’s unique challenges
•So what’s next?
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent 4JOH Nigerian Aviation Industry_Bai ...
In terms of ASM (Available Seat Miles), Africa’s travel isstill significantly less than rest of the world
20%
NorthAmerica Asia
Australia-AsiaSouth
America
CentralAmerica/Carib Africa
MiddleEast
1%
5%
8% 8%
4%2%
2% 1%
Europe
3%
<1%
13%18%
<1%
1%2%
<1%
<1%1%
3%
3%
<1%
1%
2%
Note: Year end December 2013 scheduled capacitySource: Diio Mi
Inter regionflow % oftotal globalASMs
Intra regionflow % oftotal globalASMs
Bar and circle sizes approximatelyproportional to % of total ASMs
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent 5JOH Nigerian Aviation Industry_Bai ...
0
10
20
30M
0 200 400 600B
GDP (Billions in Constant USD, 2014)
Nigeria
Morocco
Algeria
Volume of passengers (Millions, 2014)
Tunisia
South Africa
Libya
Kenya
Ethiopia
Egypt
Nigeria has Africa’s largest GDP – however, Air trafficsimilar to countries with 8 - 40 % of its GDP
Note: Passenger numbers includes all flights (domestic, international inbound and international outbound); Tunisia GDP based on 2013 informationSource: IATA (WATS ,2015); The world bank database (2015); Bain & Co analysis
Tourism contributes~10% to GDP in S.
Africa, Egypt & Morocco
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent 6JOH Nigerian Aviation Industry_Bai ...
The Nigerian airline market realized strong growthbetween 2001-2006…
0
1
2
3
4
$5B
'01A
0.8
'02A
0.9
'03A
1.2
'04A
1.6
'05A
1.7
'06A
1.8
'07A '08A '09A '10A '11A '12A '13A '14F '15F '16F '17F '18F '19F
Retail Selling Price, Nigeria
Actual
Note: All conversions indexed at 2014 exchange rate; retail selling price is the total price of tickets sold in the Nigerian airline marketSource: Euromonitor; Bain & Co analysis
Closure of Nigerianairways in 2003 after45 years of operations
Arikfounded in
2004
Virgin / Air Nigeriacommenced in
2005
18%p.a.
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent 7JOH Nigerian Aviation Industry_Bai ...
…followed by a period of stagnation between 2006-2013,driven by multiple crashes and the global financial crisis…
0
1
2
3
4
$5B
'01A
0.8
'02A
0.9
'03A
1.2
'04A
1.6
'05A
1.7
'06A
1.8
'07A
1.9
'08A
2.0
'09A
2.0
'10A
2.1
'11A
2.2
'12A
2.1
'13A
2.3
'14F '15F '16F '17F '18F '19F
Retail Selling Price, Nigeria
Actual
Note: All conversions indexed at 2014 exchange rate; retail selling price is the total price of tickets sold in the Nigerian airline marketSource: Euromonitor; Bain & Co analysis
Dana Airstarted
operations
Virgin / Air Nigeriacloses in 2012 (following
two name changes)
18%p.a.
2%p.a.
Multiplefatal
crashes
GlobalFinancial
crisis
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent 8JOH Nigerian Aviation Industry_Bai ...
… for the future, most analysts have a positive perspective,but pre-requisite conditions may not be matched
0
1
2
3
4
$5B
'01A
0.8
'02A
0.9
'03A
1.2
'04A
1.6
'05A
1.7
'06A
1.8
'07A
1.9
'08A
2.0
'09A
2.0
'10A
2.1
'11A
2.2
'12A
2.1
'13A
2.3
'14F
2.5
'15F
2.7
'16F
3.1
'17F
3.5
'18F
3.9
'19F
4.3
Retail Selling Price, Nigeria
Actual
IATA/ Tourism Econ. Forecast
IATA Forecast
Euromonitor Forecast
18%p.a.
2%p.a.
Multiplefatal
crashes
GlobalFinancial
crisis
FUTURE GROWTHDRIVERSAnalysts
projections ofgrowth vary, butshould exceedactual from last
7 years
4-11%p.a.
• Stronger economy
• Improved safety of theairline sector and thecountry to attract morebusiness and tourists
• Increased investment &infrastructure in theaviation sector
• Growing interest by leadingairline regional &international players
Note: All conversions indexed at 2014 exchange rate; retail selling price is the total price of tickets sold in the Nigerian airline marketSource: Euromonitor; Bain & Co analysis
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent 9JOH Nigerian Aviation Industry_Bai ...
Agenda
•Review Air traffic in Africa and Nigeria
•Recent changes to the global airline market
•Discuss Nigeria’s unique challenges
•So what’s next?
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent 10JOH Nigerian Aviation Industry_Bai ...
Major global trends in the past few years
Airline Consolidation National Carrier Vs FlagBearer
Emergence of Low CostCarriers
Middle East Champions New Customer Experienceat the Airport
New Customer Experiencein the Air
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4.82.94.2
Mer
ged
with
Uni
ted
Air
lines
Mer
ged
with
Air
Fra
nce
Mer
ged
with
DL
Acq
uire
d by
DL
Acq
uire
d by
LH
Ban
krup
tcy
proc
ess
Ban
krup
tcy
proc
ess
There have been many changes over the last 15 years:airlines growing, shrinking, appearing and disappearing
Market cap (€B) as of 1 Jan 1999
4.04.34.84.96.16.46.46.5
28
21
14
7
1.71.81.81.9
7.09.3
2.12.52.7
35
1.5
0
Public/Private
Mostly Stateowned
Low CostPublic/Private
Airline consolidationMarket cap (€B) as of 1 Jan 2012
4.25.1 5.1
7.15.4 5.2
2.63.3**
Note: AMR is parent company of AmericanAirlines, Sairgroup of Swissair, **British Airways is a sub. of IAG, market cap includes Vueling, IberiaSources: Capital IQ, Bloomberg, Datastream, Analyst Reports, ECB, Bain & Co analysis, ICAO privatised airlines
DIRECTIONALAnimated
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent 12JOH Nigerian Aviation Industry_Bai ...
There have been many over the last 15 years: airlinesgrowing, shrinking, appearing and disappearing
35
21
14
7
28
0
Market cap (€B) as of 1 Jan 2012
Public/Private
Mostly Stateowned
Low CostPublic/Private
5.48.4
9.17.1
6.3* 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 4.8 4.6 4.2 3.3** 2.6 2.5 2.2 2.1 2.0 2.0
12 Airlines left the top20 list:
• American Airlines• Alitalia• British Airways• US Airways• Japan Airlines• Air France• KLM• Swissair• Comair• NWA• Continental• Thai Airways
Airline consolidation
Market cap (€B) as of Aug 2015
11.6
7*9.3
16.4
6.69
31
2218.2
5.8 5.1
14.9**
6.38.7 9.1
6.4
Note: *Market value of Emirates estimated, LAN/TAM shown as combined entity, **British Airways is a sub. of IAG, market cap includes Vueling, IberiaSources: Capital IQ, Bloomberg, Datastream, Analyst Reports, ECB, Bain & Co analysis, ICAO privatised airlines
DIRECTIONALAnimated
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent 13JOH Nigerian Aviation Industry_Bai ...
31 11.614.9** 6.49.3 6.6922 18.2 5.8 5.116.4 6.3 6.28.723.3 11.8 5.610* 9.1
Market cap (€B) as of Aug 2015
There have been many over the last 15 years: airlinesgrowing, shrinking, appearing and disappearing
35
21
14
7
28
0
Public/Private
Mostly Stateowned
Low CostPublic/Private
Less State ownedairlines in the top20 whilst many
LCCs now feature
Airline consolidation
4 Airlines left the top20 list:
• LAN & TAM• Qantas• Air Asia• Copa Airlines
Note: *Market capitalisation estimated: Emirates based on comparisons against listed companies and calculating EBIT multiples while African playersestimated by comparing their Available Seat Kilometres (ASKs) against Kenya airways, British Airways is a sub. of IAG, market cap includes Vueling, IberiaSources: Capital IQ, Bloomberg, Datastream, Analyst Reports, ECB, Bain & Co analysis, ICAO privatised airlines
African playerstoo small to
appear in thischat, despite thegrowing traffic
volume
DIRECTIONALAnimated
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent 14JOH Nigerian Aviation Industry_Bai ...
Largest global airlines by capacity include mostly privatelyairlines
0
100
200
300
400B
Airlines by Scheduled Capacity(Available Seat Kilometers)
347 342
302
257
199176 173 161 154
132 130 123 123 121 121 119 118100 97 93
Public/Private
Mostly Stateowned
Low CostPublic/Private
Sources: ATW World Airline Report, World Air Transport Statistics (2015)
Airline consolidation
African playerstoo small to
appear in thischat, despite thegrowing traffic
volume
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent 15JOH Nigerian Aviation Industry_Bai ...
A thriving airline industry can be achieved throughGovernment partnering with private companies
LESSONS LEARNT FROMSTATE OWNED AIRLINES
HOWEVER THERE ARESOME SUCCESSES
WHAT COULDGOVERNMENT DO
• Industry has moved awayfrom state owned airlines
• Most state owned airlineshave been characterised bycorruption and poorcorporate governance
• Airlines are a ultracompetitive and veryrisky business, far awayfrom Government logics
• Emirates is a successfulstate owned airline
• Airline’s success is part of alarger economicecosystem- Large ship to air business- Several tax free zones that
encourage business travel- Large push to encourage
tourism- Hub for service industries
such as IT & Finance
• Government couldencourage privateinvestment & airline usethrough- Open skies policy- Investing in
infrastructures (runways,airport facilities, trainingfacilities, etc.)
- Reducing costs to makeuse of airports
• Private companies couldrun airlines
National Carrier vs FlagBearer
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Morocco is a great case study in how open skiescan increase air traffic and boost GDP growth
AIR TRAFFIC HAS INCREASED 1.7XSINCE 2005 DRIVEN BY OPEN SKIES POLICY
• Morocco signed open skies agreementswith US in 2002 and with EuropeanUnion in 2005
• Morocco’s air industry has grown by 1.7Xwith positive impacts on ticket prices,economic growth and employment1
• Morocco’s Mohammed V InternationalAirport in Casablanca is now the 4th
busiest in Africa• Inbound tourism directly contributes 9%
to GDP and 8% to employment2
Source: Euromonitor International (2015); 1. The Impact of International Air Service Liberalisation on Morocco (2009), 2. Travel and Tourism EconomicImpact Morocco (2014); 3. Transforming Intra-African air connectivity (2014)
National Carrier vs FlagBearer
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
-0.5%p.a.
+7.6%p.a.
Open skiesagreement
signedwith EU
Impact of globaleconomic crisis
+0.4%p.a.
The national airline, Royal Air Maroc,has competed with foreign airlines and
increased its total seats by 47%between 2005 and 2013
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Low Cost Carriers have emerged as formidable competitorsacross the globe, including also Africa
LCC share in world revenue (2014)
Due to the specific features of the business model, LCCs will growfaster than legacy airlines and enter new markets
LCC’S HAVE GROWN SIGNIFICANTIN MANY MARKETS
MANY LCC’S HAVE ESTABLISHEDTHEMSELVES IN AFRICA
Growth ofLCCs 2X
legacy airlinesin 2014
Notes: LCC – Low Cost Carrier; Flyafrica is a Zimbabwean airline; Fastjet is based in Tanzania and expanding (it acquired Fly540); Jambojet is asubsidiary of Kenya airways; Dana Air is Nigerian; Kulula and Mango are South AfricanSources: WATS world air transport statistics (2015), ATW World Airline Report, Bain & Co. analysis
Emergence of LCC
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Middle Eastern carriers grow ahead of the market primarilydriven by their location and lower costs
Sources: ATW World Airline Report, WATS world air transport statistics 2015, Reuters, Forbes, Aerotransport Databank, Bain & Co. analysis
Middle East Champions
0
100
200
300
400 Fleet
OrdersGrowth rate of Middle East Champions revenues(CAGR FY12-FY14)
Aircraft number(2014)
TRANSIT MODEL ENABLES GROWTHMIDDLE EAST AIRLINES ACTIVELY
PURCHASE AIRCRAFT
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Modern airports are convenient to access and havefacilities to make layovers productive and enjoyable
AIRPORTS ARE WELL LAID OUT ANDPROVIDE EASY ACCESS FOR TRAVELLERS
ONCE INSIDE, THERE ARE SEVERALSHOPS & FACILITIES TO MAKE LAYOVERS
PRODUCTIVE & ENJOYABLE
Airport CustomerExperience
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In the air customer experience has been improved byleading airlines companies
ADDITIONAL SPACE &ERGONOMICS
IN FLIGHT FACILITIES &ENTERTAINMENT
BETTER FOOD &BEVERAGES
In the Air CustomerExperience
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent 21JOH Nigerian Aviation Industry_Bai ...
Agenda
•Review Air traffic in Africa and Nigeria
•Recent changes to the global airline market
•Discuss Nigeria’s unique challenges
•So what’s next?
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent 22JOH Nigerian Aviation Industry_Bai ...
Nigeria Airline industry is facing unique challenges
Sub-Scale players Poor Efficiency &Profitability
Skills & Maintenance
Safety Customer ExperienceAirport Infrastructure
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent 23JOH Nigerian Aviation Industry_Bai ...
0
20
40
60
80
100%Arik Air
Kenya Airways
Egypt Air
South AfricaAirways
Ethiopia Airlines
Royal Air Maroc
TunisairLibyan Airlines
RwandAir
ASKY
46K
Fleet Size(Jan 2015)
Arik Air
Kenya Airways
Egypt Air
South AfricaAirways
EthiopiaAirlines
Com Air
Royal Air Maroc
Air Algerie
Tunisair
Libyan Airlines451
Top 10 intra-Africa airline operators
Weekly Seat Capacity(Jun 2014)
Regional & International airlines have a larger presencecompared to Nigerian players and dominate lucrative routes
AIRLINES FROM OTHER PARTS OF AFRICAARE LARGER THAN NIGERIAN PLAYERS
INTERNATIONAL AIRLINES HAVE LION’SSHARE OF LUCRATIVE INTERNATIONAL
OUTBOUND ROUTES FROM NIGERIA
Arik has operatedon this route
since July 2014but stopped in
May, 2015
Note: Market share based on Jan to June 2015 ASMs, USA includes New York, Houston and Atlanta while Middle East includes Dubai, Abu Dhabi and DohaSource: UBM Aviation worldwide; Airline Ratings (www.airlineratings.com); Literature search; Nigerian Civil Aviation Authority; Company website; Bain &Co. analysis
Sub-scale players
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Air travel in Africa is 5X more expensive than travelling inEurope
Note: Flight cost worked out by obtaining cheapest, most direct flight from website, all flight prices based on same travel daySource: Expedia.com, specific airline websites
Poor efficiency &profitability
Amsterdam
London
MadridRome
Paris
$561068km
$461100km
$56400km$62
344km
LomeAccra
AbidijanDouala
Lagos
$259240km
$177412km
$282831km $211
748km
Ticket prices are higher due to:• Lower occupancy• High levels of taxes, fees and charges• High costs of borrowing and risks due to country and
safety risk
• Higher operational costs
• Reduced competition due to limited liberalisation of airspace
AVERAGE COST OF 42 US $ PER 100KM AVERAGE COST OF 8 US $ PER 100KM
BENCHMARKS
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Note: 1. Nigerian College of Aviation Technology in Zaria; 2. A & B checks are scheduled maintenance that are done based on flight hours – A checksare done every 30-45 days while B checks are done every ~6 months; 3. C & D checks are more maintenance intensive and are referred to as heavymaintenance- it requires specialised facilities (at a Maintenance Repair and Overhaul base), tooling and skills. C checks are normally done every 2 yearsand is an extensive check of individual components and systems while a D check is an overhaul that is done every 6 years.Source: Literature search; Africa competitiveness report (2013); Industry expert interviews (2015)
Lack of skilled resources and heavy maintenanceinfrastructure increases cost to industry
ONCE OFF PILOT &TECHNICAL TRAINING
RECURRENT PILOTTRAINING
HEAVY MAINTENANCEFACILITIES
• Only one college exists inNigeria to train pilots &technical personnel1
• Specialised training takesplace overseas
• Training effectiveness canbe improved by upgradingand aligning with industryrequirements
• No pilot simulators existin country requiringbi-annual simulatorrefreshers to be doneabroad
• Only basic A & Bmaintenance checks2
take place in Nigeria
• Major C & D checks3 haveto take place in otherparts of the world atgreat expense
Skills & Maintenance
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~75% of national passenger traffic driven by airportswithin the ‘Golden Triangle’ (Lagos, Abuja & Port Harcourt)
• Nigeria has ~22 airports including 5international airports (Lagos, Abuja, PortHarcourt, Kano and Enugu)
• Golden triangle of airports (Lagos, Abuja& Port Harcourt) well served withcompetition amongst domestic airlines
• ~17 domestic airports have a smallamount of traffic and are not well servedby domestic players
• In 2013 the government renovated 11federal airports1 with another 11 to berenovated by 2015
• Majority airports are owned and operatedby FAAN2
• Nigerian airports’ security improving witha recent average score of 90% in ICAO3
audit
Mallam Aminu (Kano)
Nnamdi Azikwe (Abuja)
Enugu
PortHarcourt
Murtala Muhammed (Lagos)
Calabar
Jos
Kaduna
Maiduguri
Sokoto
Yola
Akure
Bauchi
Benin
Ibadan
Ilorin
Katsina
Makurdi
Minna
OwerriWarri
Zaria
Bayelsa
Kebbi
Kogi
Nasarawa
Ogun
DomesticInternational Proposed
Legend
Note: 1. Upgraded airports are Lagos, Kano, Abuja, Yola, Port Harcourt, Enugu, Owerri, Jos, Kaduna, Calabar and Benin; 2. Federal Airports Authority ofNigeria; 3. Audit conducted in June 2015 by International Civil Aviation Organization and goes through the Universal Security Audit (USAP) ContinuousMonitoring Approach (CMA)Source: Federal Airports Authority of Nigeria; Literature search
Airports
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Aviation safety in Nigeria is improving – NCAA, Arik andAero certified by international safety organizations
AFRICAN SAFETY IMPROVING BUTSTILL 3X GLOBAL AVERAGE
NCAA AND SOME AIRLINES HAVE BEENACCREDITED WITH FAA AND IATA
Note: * stats shown are for accidents and do not show associated fatalities; only accidents for commercial operations involving aircraft > 5,700 kg takeoff weight are recordedSource: International Civil Aviation Organisation (2013 & 2014); Africa competitiveness report (2013); Bain & Co. analysis
NCAA certified by US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)and is a member state of UN’s International Civil Aviation
Organisation
Two Nigerian airlines have registered with IATA and passedtheir Operational Safety Audit (IOSA)
IncludesMalaysian
Airlineaccidents
Safety
Arik certified by US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)
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Nigerian Airlines & Airports customer experienceimproving, but still far away from international Standards
BOOKING OF AIRLINETICKET
CHECKIN PROCESS ATAIRPORT
CONVENIENCE OF AIRPORTFACILITIES
ON TIME DEPARTURE &ARRIVAL
COMFORT & CONVENIENCEFROM NEWER AIRCRAFT CUSTOMER SERVICE
Customer Experience
• Airlines have websites for onlinebooking & online travel websiteslike Wakanow exist
• Checkin processes not efficient
• Often insufficient space for peakpassenger traffic
• Airports have minimal facilities e.g.Wi-Fi, restaurants, recreationalservices
• Airlines often delayed across theAfrican Continent
• Some airlines have invested innewer aircraft with increasedcomfort & functionality
• Customer service can be improved(call center, online, apps, …)
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent 29JOH Nigerian Aviation Industry_Bai ...
Agenda
•Review Air traffic in Africa and Nigeria
•Recent changes to the global airline market
•Discuss Nigeria’s unique challenges
•So what’s next?
This information is confidential and was prepared by Bain & Company solely for the use of our client; it is not to be relied on by any 3rd party without Bain's prior written consent 30JOH Nigerian Aviation Industry_Bai ...
So what’s next?
Define the longterm role of the
Aviation industry inthe future plans of
Nigeria
Keep a strong focuson efficiency &
profitability,without forgetting
the safetyimperatives
Upgrade theindustry Customer
Experience tobetter standards(ideally the best
ones)
Role of the NigerianGovernment is key in both thedefinition and the long term
support to the Nigerian industrydevelopment and grown
11 22 33