Perspectives of Nuclear Energy Further development in Armenia

A. A. GevorgyanObninsk, RF

27 June – 2 July 2004

Power Sector

Installed capacityArmenian NPP 815 (440) MW

Hrazdan TPP 1100 MW

Yerevan TPP 550 MW

Sevan-Hrazdan cascade of HPPs 550 MW

Vorotan cascade of HPPs 400 MW

Small HPPs 56 MW

Transmission system 220 kV 1323 km 14 substations

110 kV 3169 km 119 substations

Interconnections with all neighboring countries

Distribution system 35 kV 2675 km 278 substations

6(10) kV 9740 km overhead and 4955 km cable lines

0.4 kV 13570 km overhead and 2160 km cable lines

Armenia-Iran 220 kV transmission line, built in 1997, 150-200 MW capacity, 360 mln. kWh/ year power exchange contract. Starting 2003, line capacity increase to 300 MW

Armenia-Georgia 220 kV transmission line, 250 MW capacity,

Armenia-Azerbaijan 330 kV transmission line, 420 MW capacity, currently disconnected

Armenia-Turkey 220 kV transmission line, 300 MW capacity, currently disconnected

Main System Interconnections

The Power System Scheme

G a s s e c t o r

Transmission system

Length 1800 km

Pressure 12-55 bar

Substations 67 units

Abovyan underground storage 220 mln. cub.m (design capacity)

140 mln. cub. m (oper. capacity)

Distribution system

High pressure (6-12 bar) 558 km

Medium pressure (0.05-6 bar) 2656 km

Low pressure 6041 km

The results of asset reevaluation showed

Evolution of the Energy Sector

Replacement of the equipment in Energy Sector is required

The Energy Sector is threatened with serious equipment crisis

Equipment doesn’t comply with international standards forefficiency and environmental protection

38% of installed capacity is over 30 years old

Most TPP units have reached their design limit of operating hours

HPPs-70% of installed equipment is more than 30 years old and

-50% - more than 40 years

Water Balance of the Lake Sevan

1936 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000

500

1000

1500

2000Annual Lake Out & Inflow (mcm)

1890

1895

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920Sevan Level (m asl)

Level

Outflow

Inflow Arpha

The Energy Security of Armenia

Energy Security - ability for the reliable energy

supply for all requirements of a person, society

and country under stable development as well as

extreme conditions. Ensuring of Energy Security is the main task and

responsibility of the State Institutions without

excepting the participation of private and public

organizations of Armenia.

GDP Growth Forecast

1988 1999 2005 2010 2015 20200

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Reference

Low

Projected Shares in GDPReference Scenario

1999 2005 2010 2015 20200%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Agriculture

Construction

Mining

Manufacturing

Energy

Services

Final Energy Demand

1999 2005 2010 2015 20200

2

4

6

8 Reference Scenario

Low Scenario

Electricity ContributionReference & Low Scenarios

1999 2005 2010 2015 20200

2

4

6

8

10

12

14 Losses Ref

Consumption Ref

Generation Ref

Losses Low

Consumption Low

Generation Low

Supply OptionsHydropower Potential

Untapped hydropotential is 480 MW, which would generate 1800 GWh per year

60% of this can be developed at less than USc 6 / kWhShnokh (75 MW)Megri (80 MW, on the border with Iran)Small hydro projects (75 MW)

Some good locations for pumped storage plants exist

Supply OptionsOther options

Geothermalcan be used for district heating onlyresearch and development urgently required

Windpower limited potential, but some good sites exist: Pushkin Pass, Aragaz, Sevan Lake, Sisian Pass

MiscellaneousSolar too expensiveWaste incinerator (10 MW)

Supply OptionsThermal Plant

No new thermal capacity is needed until 2007

Conversion of existing thermal units to combined cycle plant is too expensive

Best candidate plant for future

combined cycle CHP 167 MW

combined cycle 300 MW

Supply OptionsNuclear Plant

New 600 (#4) MW unit would beginning to work in 2016-2017

More expensive than gas-fired CC plant, but important in the

context of fuel diversification

New 600 (#3) MW unit would replace existing unit #2 in 2015

Specific Generation Costs

20 40 60 80 100

Plant Factor (%)

0

2.5

5

7.5

10

12.5

15Generation Cost (USc/kWh)

New CC 167MW

Unit 2 NPP

Rehabilitated Hydro

New Hydro Windfarm

Small Hydro

Old TPP's

Hrazdan 2-5

New units of NPP

New CC 300MW

Installed Generation Capacities & Peak LoadReference Demand - with Nuclear

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 20200

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

Installed Capacities Peak Load

Installed Generation Capacities & Peak LoadReference Demand - w/o Nuclear

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 20200

1000

2000

3000

4000

Installed Capacities Peak Load

System Present Values million 1999 US$ - Reference scenario

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

8% 10% 12%

bln. US$

Reference with Nuclear Reference w/o Nuclear

Energy Generation Shares by FuelReference Demand - Nuclear Scenario

1999 2005 2010 2015 20200%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100% Coal &Wood

Hydro

Nuclear

Mazut

Diesel

Kerosene

Petrol

LPG

Gas

Energy Generation Shares by Fuel

Reference Demand - CC Scenario

1999 2005 2010 2015 20200%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100% Coal &Wood

Hydro

Nuclear

Mazut

Diesel

Kerosene

Petrol

LPG

Gas

Natural Gas ConsumptionAll Demand Scenarios

1999 2005 2010 2015 20200

2

4

6

8

10bln. m3

Reference_NPP

Reference_CC

Low_NPP

Low_CC

Gas-duck capacity

Cost of Electricity

1999 2005 2010 2015 20200

2

4

6

8USc/kWh

Reference_NPP

Reference_CC

Low_NPP

Low_CC

Average

Environmental AnalysisExternal Specific Cost of Electricity Generation

0.0000743

0.000224

0.000276

0.134

0.133

0.131

0.13

0.128

0.132

0.132

0.12

0.0875

0.0891

0.0891

0.0283

0.0035

Tatev HPP (157 MW)

Shamb HPP (171 MW)

Spandaryan HPP (76 MW)

Yereven TPP (50 MW)

Yereven TPP (150 MW)

Hrazdan TPP (50 MW)

Hrazdan TPP (100 MW)

Hrazdan TPP (200 MW)

Vanadzor TPP (12 MW)

Vanadzor TPP (47 MW)

Hrazdan TPP-constr. (300 MW)

Hrazdan CC-New (300 MW)

Yerevan CHP-New (167 MW)

Hrazdan CHP-New (167 MW)

NPP-Existing (415 MW)

NPP-New (640 MW)

0 0.04 0.08 0.12 0.16

Environmental AnalysisTotal External Costs (discounted, IR-10%)

0

20

40

60

Energy security and independenceReference demand - Nuclear scenario

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

0

20

40

60

80

100% of independence

Nuclear Conrtibution

Hydro Contribution - Old

Hydro Contribution - New

Wind Contribution

Energy security and independenceReference demand - CC scenario

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Year

0

20

40

60

80

100% of independence

Nuclear Conrtibution

Hydro Contribution - Old

Hydro Contribution - New

Wind Contribution

Development of Nuclear Energy on the base of Modern Technologies

Preparation for replacement of existing NPP units by modern ones

Enhance Nuclear Safety not only at the Plant level, but also by System measures

Strengthen and Development Gas and Electrical Interconnections to neighbouring countries

Develop Wind, Solar and Geothermal