Phase 5 Watershed ModelRiverine Water Quality

Calibration Update

Modeling Subcommittee

Quarterly Review

4/4/2006

Calibration of River Nutrients

Final TextOutput

River variableWDM

METWDM

ATDEPWDM

PSWDM

River Input File Generator

5

6

4

ProcessParameter

FilesModel Structure

Files

OptimizationRoutine

Two Calibration Strategies

• PEST– Complex– Long run times– Has been used successfully with HSPF in other

applications

• Rule-Based Optimization– Complex– Runs quickly– Similar to successful flow and temperature

calibrations in phase 5

PEST

Final TextOutput

River variableWDM

METWDM

ATDEPWDM

PSWDM

River Input File Generator

5

6

4

ProcessParameter

Files • Determine the sensitivity of each parameter to the agreement of simulated and observed

• Determine the quickest route to the best simulation

• Take a large step in that direction

PEST Status

• Runs

• Calculates matrix of sensitivities and updates parameters

• Won’t be useful globally within the month– Angelica on leave– Would have to take all CBP modeling

computer resources starting now

Uncalibrated

Modification by PEST

Final TextOutput

River variableWDM

METWDM

ATDEPWDM

PSWDM

River Input File Generator

5

6

4

ProcessParameter

Files • Assume the sensitivity of each parameter to the agreement of simulated and observed

• Determine the quickest route to the best simulation

• Take a small step in that direction

Rule-Based Optimization

Rule-Based River Calibration Method

• Consistent with recommendations of STAC review team

• Based on matching observed and simulated CFDs for paired data

10-1

100

101

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

TOTAL N, IN MG/L

CU

MU

LAT

IVE

DIS

TR

IBU

TIO

N

EMPIRICAL CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FOR TOTN >> scen: WQT1 >> seg: RU5-6030-0001 >> name: RAPPAHANNOCK R

h = 1p = 7.6549e-055k = 0.53089

SimulatedObserved

Turn up denitrification

Settle more phytoplankton

Settle more phytoplankton

Settle less Refractory

Don’t Change ammonia scour and release

Final TextOutput

River variableWDM

METWDM

ATDEPWDM

PSWDM

River Input File Generator

5

6

4

ProcessParameter

Files • Currently working on runs that calculate normal sensitivity ranges for use in this process

• Older sensitivities were calculated with poor Edge-of-Field and gave mixed results

Rule-Based Optimization

Status

Uncalibrated

Calibrated

Phase 4.3

Uncalibrated

Calibrated

Phase 4.3

Uncalibrated

Calibrated

Phase 4.3

Uncalibrated

Calibrated

Phase 4.3

Uncalibrated

Calibrated

Phase 4.3

Uncalibrated

Calibrated

Phase 4.3

Uncalibrated

Calibrated

Phase 4.3

Uncalibrated

Calibrated

Phase 4.3

Uncalibrated

Calibrated

Phase 4.3

Status of River Calibration

• Calibration method improves simulation

• Results in the ballpark of phase 4

• Need revised rules to complete calibration

Extension to 8/2005Data Sources

• Rain, Temperature, PET– Jeff Raffensperger

• Solar Radiation, Cloud Cover, Dewpoint, Wind Speed– Ping Wang

• Atmospheric Deposition– Extended model of Grimm/Lynch

Extension to 8/2005Data Sources

• Point Sources– Ning Zhou

• Diversions– Extended work from USGS

• Land Use– Extrapolated from 2002

Susquehanna

Susquehanna

Potomac

Potomac

James

James

Rappahannock

Rappahannock

Random Small Watershed

Random Small Watershed

1985-1999 efficiency

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50le

ss th

an -1

-0.8

to -0

.75

-0.5

5 to

-0.5

-0.3

to -0

.25

-0.0

5 to

0

0.2

to 0

.25

0.45

to 0

.5

0.7

to 0

.75

0.95

to 1

2000-2002 efficiency

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50le

ss th

an -1

-0.8

to -0

.75

-0.5

5 to

-0.5

-0.3

to -0

.25

-0.0

5 to

0

0.2

to 0

.25

0.45

to 0

.5

0.7

to 0

.75

0.95

to 1

Extension to 2005

• Simulation runs through WY 2005

• Simulation in 2000-2002 not as good as 1985-1999

• 2000-2002 are drought years, so check through 2005 and re-evaluate