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OS 072. Phenology of sea ice and ocean algal blooms in the Arctic. Rubao Ji 1 , Meibing Jin 2 , Øystein Varpe 3 1. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution 2. University of Alaska – Fairbanks 3. Norwegian Polar Institute. OS 072. Phenology of ice algae and phytoplankton blooms in the Arctic. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Phenology of sea ice and ocean algal blooms in the Arctic
Rubao Ji1, Meibing Jin2, Øystein Varpe3
1. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution2. University of Alaska – Fairbanks3. Norwegian Polar Institute
OS 072
Phenology of ice algae and phytoplankton blooms in the Arctic
Rubao Ji1, Meibing Jin2, Øystein Varpe3
1. Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution2. University of Alaska – Fairbanks3. Norwegian Polar Institute
OS 072
Background
Minimum Sea Ice Extent
1978 2011
Ext
ent
(Mill
ion
km2)
NS
IDC
Conceptual model
Derived from: Wassman 2011 Søreide et al. 2010 Leu et al., 2011
Implications for zooplankton
Calanus hyperboreusClimatology Start 2-weeks earlier
Ji et al., PiO 2011Individuals can reach overwinter stage within growth season
Methods
Modeling analysis
Satellite data analysis:•Ocean color (SeaWiFS)
•Ice (SMMR& SSM/I)
•Snow (SMMR& SSM/I) Melt onset: Drobot & Anderson. 2001
Western transect
Eastern transect
POPPOP CICECICE
Pelagic food web Pelagic
food web Ice-algae module
Ice-algae module
LANL/NCAR
Model run: 1992-2007(Jin et al., 2011)
Observation: W. transect
Snow-melt
Ice-melt
SeaWiFSChl-a
Observation: E. transect
Snow-melt Ice-melt
SeaWiFSChl-a
Observation vs modelIce-melt (obs.) Ice-melt (model)
Phyto peak (obs.) Phyto peak (model)
Taylor diagram
- Model capture basic timing pattern
- Model skill similar among years
- Model phyto peak earlier than obs.
Phyto peak
Ice melt
Modeled timing
BTphyto-peak
Lag: B-A
ATice-algae-peak
Timing correlation
corr(Tice-melt, Tphyto-peak) (model)
r (all) r (p<0.05)
0-1.0 1.0
Timing correlation
corr(Tice-melt, Tice-algae-peak) (model)
r (all) r (p<0.05)
0-1.0 1.0
Timing correlation
corr(Tice-melt, Lag) (model)
r (all)
0-1.0 1.0
r (p<0.05)
Model results: W. transect
Summary
Earlier ice-meltEarlier ice-melt
Earlier phytoplankton bloomEarlier phytoplankton bloom
Earlier ice-algae bloomEarlier ice-algae bloom
Shrinking lag between phyto. & ice-algae blooms
Shrinking lag between phyto. & ice-algae blooms
only in E. Arctic
Potential henological match/mismatch between algae blooms and zooplankton
Need for further study (model development and validation; more phenology analysis).
Acknowledgement
NSF Shelf-Basin Interaction (SBI) project
WHOI Arctic Research Initiative
IARC, University of Alaska
DOE EPSCoR Program
Centre for Ice, Climate and Ecosystems (ICE), Norwegian Polar Institute