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Phoenix
Ian Sue Wing, Boston University
Karen Fisher Vanden, Penn State
Katie Daenzer, Penn State
Phoenix
• Partners : Boston University, Joint Global Change Research Institute (JGCRI), and Penn State University
• Goal : construct a community-based, open-source CGE model capable of modeling both sectoral and economy-wide climate policies
• The model :
– Recursive dynamic simulation of world economy
– 26 regions, 26 sectors (5 energy commodities), 3 primary factors
– Static sub-model calibrated on GTAP 7.1 database and IEA energy balances
– Dynamic process on a 5-year time step for 2005-2100, capturing regional capital accumulation; cumulative fossil fuel resource depletion; carbon dioxide emissions; price-driven renewable, nuclear and hydro resource supply expansion
– Core CGE structure written in GAMS using MPSGE
Phoenix Regions
Phoenix Sectors
4
Industrial Sectors
Fishing
Agriculture
Forestry
Coal*
Oil*
Gas*
Transport Equipment
Mining & Quarrying
Construction
Machinery & Equipment nec
Clothing
Non-durable Goods
Food & Tobacco
Paper Products & Publishing
Wood Products
Refined Oil Products*
Chemicals, Rubber, Plastics
Non-metallic Minerals
Iron & Steel
Non-ferrous Metals
Electricity*
Transport (other)
Water Transport
Air Transport
Unspecified Other
Services
• Homogeneous Output
• Nested CES production structure varies across commodities, but not regions
Example of CES nesting in the non-energy material sectors.
*Energy commodities
Phoenix Trade Detail
• Heckscher-Ohlin Trade : crude oil & natural gas commodities
– Track each region’s exports and their imports from the global pool
• Armington Trade : remaining 24 commodities
– Track the flow of each commodity from an exporting region to each of the remaining 25 importing regions
5
Energy Technology Detail
• Electricity: nine types of electric power generation: coal, oil, natural gas, biomass, nuclear, hydro, geothermal, solar, and wind
• IEA electricity data is used to disaggregate and calibrate the single GTAP electric sector
• Backstop: Four backstop energy supplies: NGCC-CCS, IGCC-CCS, coal-syngas, biofuels
• Transportation: Fossil-, biofuel-, and electricity- powered household own-supplied and road/other transportation subsectors
Phoenix Activities
• Inter-Model Comparisons
• Participation in the Asian Modeling Exercise (AME), Energy Modeling Forum 27, and the Latin America Modeling Project (LAMP)
• Publications • Fisher-Vanden, K., K. Schu, I. Sue Wing, and K. Calvin, 2012,
“Decomposing the impact of alternative technology sets on future carbon emissions growth,” Energy Economics (34): S359-S365
• Daenzer, K. I. Sue Wing, K Fisher-Vanden, 2014, “Coal’s medium-run future under atmospheric greenhouse gas stabilization,” Climatic Change (123): pp763-783.
Phoenix Activities
• Inter-Model Comparisons
• Participation in the Asian Modeling Exercise (AME), Energy Modeling Forum 27, and the Latin America Modeling Project (LAMP)
• Publications • Fisher-Vanden, K., K. Schu, I. Sue Wing, and K. Calvin, 2012,
“Decomposing the impact of alternative technology sets on future carbon emissions growth,” Energy Economics (34): S359-S365
• Daenzer, K. I. Sue Wing, K Fisher-Vanden, 2014, “Coal’s medium-run future under atmospheric greenhouse gas stabilization,” Climatic Change (123): pp763-783.
Coal’s Medium-Run Future
• Assess the future of coal under alternative climate stabilization regimes
• Investigate how the quantity and location of production, trade, and use depends upon:
• Energy-saving structural change
• Resource depletion
• Diversification and deepening of international trade
• Economic growth
• Availability of carbon capture and storage technology
Coal’s Medium-Run Future
• EMF 27’s BAU, 550 ppm & 450 ppm stabilization scenarios
• Investigate how the quantity and location of production, trade, and use depends upon:
• Energy-saving structural change
• Resource depletion
• Diversification and deepening of international trade
• Economic growth
• Availability of carbon capture and storage technology
Red scenarios come from the EMF 27 exercise. Black scenarios were generated by the PHX team.
Coal’s Medium-Run Future
• EMF 27’s BAU, 550 ppm & 450 ppm stabilization scenarios
• Investigate how the quantity and location of production, trade, and use depends upon:
• AEEI × 1.85 & AEEI ÷ 1.85
• Resource depletion
• Diversification and deepening of international trade
• Economic growth
• Availability of carbon capture and storage technology
Red scenarios come from the EMF 27 exercise. Black scenarios were generated by the PHX team.
Coal’s Medium-Run Future
• EMF 27’s BAU, 550 ppm & 450 ppm stabilization scenarios
• Investigate how the quantity and location of production, trade, and use depends upon:
• AEEI × 1.85 & AEEI ÷ 1.85
• Supply-side constraint of resource depletion
• Diversification and deepening of international trade
• Economic growth
• CCS on & CCS off
Red scenarios come from the EMF 27 exercise. Black scenarios were generated by the PHX team.
Coal’s Medium-Run Future
• EMF 27’s BAU, 550 ppm & 450 ppm stabilization scenarios
• Investigate how the quantity and location of production, trade, and use depends upon:
• AEEI × 1.85 & AEEI ÷ 1.85
• Remove depletion penalty
• Double & halve Armington elasticity
• ± 10% changes in labor productivity growth rates
• CCS on & CCS off
Red scenarios come from the EMF 27 exercise. Black scenarios were generated by the PHX team.
Coal’s Medium-Run Future Results
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Baseline
High Econ.
Low Econ.
High AEEI
Low AEEI
High Trd
Low Trd
Dpl. Pen.
450ppm
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BAU
Policy
Coal’s Medium-Run Future Results
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015304560
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High Econ.
Low Econ.
High AEEI
Low AEEI
High Trd
Low Trd
Dpl. Pen.
450ppm
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Production Exports
BAU
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Coal’s Medium-Run Future Results
015304560
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Baseline
High Econ.
Low Econ.
High AEEI
Low AEEI
High Trd
Low Trd
Dpl. Pen.
450ppm
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• Consequential to our analysis is the large increase in the AEEI growth rate under the required EMF LowEI scenarios, which exceeds the plausible amplitude of variation in other input parameters.
• For this reason the magnitude of changes in model outputs must be normalized with respect to the parameter perturbations.
Production Exports
BAU
Coal’s Medium-Run Future Results
015304560
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Baseline
High Econ.
Low Econ.
High AEEI
Low AEEI
High Trd
Low Trd
Dpl. Pen.
450ppm
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• Nordhaus (1994) calculates the Euclidean distance of the target output variable from its level under baseline parameter assumptions
Production Exports
BAU
Coal’s Medium-Run Future Results
015304560
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Baseline
High Econ.
Low Econ.
High AEEI
Low AEEI
High Trd
Low Trd
Dpl. Pen.
450ppm
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• We extend this approach by calculating the arc-elasticity, using the change in output variables to both the high and low input values, which are normalized by the percentage change in input variables relative to the baseline.
Production Exports
BAU
Coal’s Medium-Run Future Results
GHG Tax Labor Prd. AEEI Trade
Depl. Penalty
Production
BAU - 0.11 -0.08 0.001 0.07
Policy, CCS -0.81 (-0.73) 0.13 -0.06 0.002 0.03
No CCS -0.85 (-0.81) 0.13 0.06 0.002 0.02
Exports
BAU - 0.10 -0.07 0.01 0.009
Policy -0.45 (-0.55) 0.13 -0.06 0.01 0.004
No CCS -0.48 (-0.59) 0.13 -0.06 0.01 0.000
Coal’s Medium-Run Future Results
GHG Tax Labor Prd. AEEI Trade
Depl. Penalty
Production
BAU - 0.11 -0.08 0.001 0.07
Policy, CCS -0.81 (-0.73) 0.13 -0.06 0.002 0.03
No CCS -0.85 (-0.81) 0.13 0.06 0.002 0.02
Exports
BAU - 0.10 -0.07 0.01 0.009
Policy -0.45 (-0.55) 0.13 -0.06 0.01 0.004
No CCS -0.48 (-0.59) 0.13 -0.06 0.01 0.000
Coal’s Medium-Run Future Results
GHG Tax Labor Prd. AEEI Trade
Depl. Penalty
Production
BAU - 0.11 -0.08 0.001 0.07
Policy, CCS -0.81 (-0.73) 0.13 -0.06 0.002 0.03
No CCS -0.85 (-0.81) 0.13 0.06 0.002 0.02
Exports
BAU - 0.10 -0.07 0.01 0.009
Policy -0.45 (-0.55) 0.13 -0.06 0.01 0.004
No CCS -0.48 (-0.59) 0.13 -0.06 0.01 0.000
Coal’s Medium-Run Future Results
GHG Tax Labor Prd. AEEI Trade
Depl. Penalty
Production
BAU - 0.11 -0.08 0.001 0.07
Policy, CCS -0.81 (-0.73) 0.13 -0.06 0.002 0.03
No CCS -0.85 (-0.81) 0.13 0.06 0.002 0.02
Exports
BAU - 0.10 -0.07 0.01 0.009
Policy -0.45 (-0.55) 0.13 -0.06 0.01 0.004
No CCS -0.48 (-0.59) 0.13 -0.06 0.01 0.000
BAU Regional Profile
• Regional analysis focused on the three largest cumulative producers and exporters of coal.
Region Cumulative Production
Cumulative Exports
Export Growth
Resource Depletion
Australia/NZ 483.9 (5%) 397.6 (25%) 2.35% 5%
China/TWN 3909.5 (42%) 186.0 (12%) 1.27% 26%
India 736.3 (8%) 7.1 (<1%) 2.54% 22%
Russia 366.6 (4%) 192.9 (12%) 3.8% <1%
USA 1201.0 (13%) 138.5 (9%) 4.14% 2.3%
World 9413.3 1604.9
Share of world total in parenthesis.
BAU Regional Profile
• Inter-regional differences in rates of depletion drive shifting regional shares of world coal production & exports.
Region Cumulative Production
Cumulative Exports
Export Growth
Resource Depletion
Australia/NZ 483.9 (5%) 397.6 (25%) 2.35% 5%
China/TWN 3909.5 (42%) 186.0 (12%) 1.27% 26%
India 736.3 (8%) 7.1 (<1%) 2.54% 22%
Russia 366.6 (4%) 192.9 (12%) 3.8% <1%
USA 1201.0 (13%) 138.5 (9%) 4.14% 2.3%
World 9413.3 1604.9
Share of world total in parenthesis.
BAU Regional Sensitivity Results
• Aside from trade diversification, the top producers’ production responses mirror the global results
• Export responses do not -
% Change in Exports
Scenario Labor AEEI Armington Elas. Depl.
Australia/NZ ±4% -30%, +22% -5%, - -17%
China/TWN ±4% -9%, + 4% -20%, +2% 27%
India ±2% -24%, +17% -17.8%, -2.3% -29.9%
Russia +9%, -8% -34%, +25% +40%, -25% -23%
USA +10%,-8% -37%, +38% +31.2%, -18.1% -23%
World +5%, -4% -25%, +20% ±4% 1%
High and low sensitivity runs for the BAU scenario.
Regional Policy Results
• CO2 tax increases consumer coal prices, depressing demand & extraction below BAU levels in all regions.
• Interesting region-specific import results that are dependent upon trade and technology specification
Region Production Consumption Exports Imports
China/TWN -46%, -48% -46%, -58% +9%, -16.2% +29%, -7%
India -81%, -70% -61%, -69% +68%, +2% +112%, +39%
Change in cumulative values for the 550ppm and 450ppm scenarios relative to BAU
Regional Policy Results
• CO2 tax increases consumer coal prices, depressing demand & extraction below BAU levels in all regions.
• Interesting region-specific import results that are dependent upon trade and technology specification
Region Production Consumption Exports Imports
China/TWN -46%, -48% -46%, -58% +9%, -16.2% +29%, -7%
India -81%, -70% -61%, -69% +68%, +2% +112%, +39%
Change in cumulative values for the 550ppm and 450ppm scenarios relative to BAU
Regional Policy Results
• Highlights the interactions between the penetration of IGCC-CCS and regions’ relative rates of depletion
• Coal is traded and purchased by IGCC-CCS tech at pre-tax prices
Region Imports
IGCC-CCS Coal Share
Pre-tax Price Growth Rate
China/TWN 550ppm +29% 20% 0.6%, 0.8%
450ppm -7% 47% 0.6%, 0.7%
India 550ppm +112% 28% -0.05%, 0.05%
450ppm +39% 56% 0%, 5%
Domestic, Import
Regional Policy Results
• Highlights the interactions between the penetration of IGCC-CCS and regions’ relative rates of depletion
• Coal is traded and purchased by IGCC-CCS tech at pre-tax prices
Region Imports
IGCC-CCS Coal Share
Pre-tax Price Growth Rate
Gross-of-tax Growth Rate
China/TWN 550ppm +29% 20% 0.6%, 0.8% 4.9%, 4.1%
450ppm -7% 47% 0.6%, 0.7% 6.2%, 5.3%
India 550ppm +112% 28% -0.05%, 0.05% 6.7%, 3.7%
450ppm +39% 56% 0%, 5% 8.2%, 4.9%
Domestic, Import
Key Findings
• In the absence of a climate policy, coal remains the dominant energy source, being most sensitive to assumptions about economic growth and energy intensity.
• Imposing taxes on GHG emissions causes coal extraction to decline significantly at first and then rebound, but only if CCS technology is available. Global exports are much less responsive.
• Interregional differences in the rates of depletion are the fundamental driver shifting regional shares of production over time.
• Under alternative stabilization regimes, coal’s future in major producing and consuming regions is highly dependent upon the penetration of IGCC-CCS.
Key Findings
• In the absence of a climate policy, coal remains the dominant energy source, being most sensitive to assumptions about economic growth and energy intensity.
• Imposing taxes on GHG emissions causes coal extraction to decline significantly at first and then rebound, but only if CCS technology is available. Global exports are much less responsive.
• Interregional differences in the rates of depletion are the fundamental driver shifting regional shares of production over time.
• Under alternative stabilization regimes, coal’s future in major producing and consuming regions is highly dependent upon the penetration of IGCC-CCS.
Key Findings
• In the absence of a climate policy, coal remains the dominant energy source, being most sensitive to assumptions about economic growth and energy intensity.
• Imposing taxes on GHG emissions causes coal extraction to decline significantly at first and then rebound, but only if CCS technology is available. Global exports are much less responsive.
• Interregional differences in the rates of depletion are the fundamental driver shifting regional shares of production over time.
• Under alternative stabilization regimes, coal’s future in major producing and consuming regions is highly dependent upon the penetration of IGCC-CCS.
Key Findings
• In the absence of a climate policy, coal remains the dominant energy source, being most sensitive to assumptions about economic growth and energy intensity.
• Imposing taxes on GHG emissions causes coal extraction to decline significantly at first and then rebound, but only if CCS technology is available. Global exports are much less responsive.
• Interregional differences in the rates of depletion are the fundamental driver shifting regional shares of production over time.
• Under alternative stabilization regimes, coal’s future in major producing and consuming regions is highly dependent upon the penetration of IGCC-CCS.
Key Findings
• In the absence of a climate policy, coal remains the dominant energy source, being most sensitive to assumptions about economic growth and energy intensity.
• Imposing taxes on GHG emissions causes coal extraction to decline significantly at first and then rebound, but only if CCS technology is available. Global exports are much less responsive.
• Interregional differences in the rates of depletion are the fundamental driver shifting regional shares of production over time.
• Under alternative stabilization regimes, coal’s future in major producing and consuming regions is highly dependent upon the penetration of IGCC-CCS.
Ongoing Work
• Climate Impacts • Initial phase motivated by the LAMP exercises, with a focus on changing
agricultural yields, hydro capacity, and final energy demand
• Requires model restructuring – breaking our one agriculture sector into six, for example
• Non-CO2 Emissions
• Update Resource Base Data
Funding & Documentation
• EPA, Office of Air and Radiation, Office of Atmospheric Programs, Climate Change Division
• Detailed Model Documentation http://www.globalchange.umd.edu/models/phoenix/
Regional Policy Results
• CO2 tax increases consumer coal prices, depressing demand & extraction below BAU levels in all regions.
• Interesting region-specific import results that are dependent upon trade and technology specification
Region Production Consumption Exports Imports
ANZ -19%, -25% -42%, -54% -13%, -20% +28%, -15%
China/TWN -46%, -48% -46%, -58% +9%, -16.2% +29%, -7%
India -81%, -70% -61%, -69% +68%, +2% +112%, +39%
Russia -56%, -54% -53%, -58% -44%, +55% -17%, -43%
USA -46%, -44% -40%, -54% -36%, -52% -37%, -58%
Regional Policy Results
• CO2 tax increases consumer coal prices, depressing demand & extraction below BAU levels in all regions.
• Interesting region-specific import results that are dependent upon trade and technology specification
Region Production Consumption Exports Imports
ANZ -19%, -25% -42%, -54% -13%, -20% +28%, -15%
China/TWN -46%, -48% -46%, -58% +9%, -16.2% +29%, -7%
India -81%, -70% -61%, -69% +68%, +2% +112%, +39%
Russia -56%, -54% -53%, -58% -44%, +55% -17%, -43%
USA -46%, -44% -40%, -54% -36%, -52% -37%, -58%
Regional Policy Results
• CO2 tax increases consumer coal prices, depressing demand & extraction below BAU levels in all regions.
• Interesting region-specific import results that are dependent upon trade and technology specification
Region Production Consumption Exports Imports
ANZ -19%, -25% -42%, -54% -13%, -20% +28%, -15%
China/TWN -46%, -48% -46%, -58% +9%, -16.2% +29%, -7%
India -81%, -70% -61%, -69% +68%, -2% +112%, +39%
Russia -56%, -54% -53%, -58% -44%, -55% -17%, -43%
USA -46%, -44% -40%, -54% -36%, -52% -24%, -50%
550ppm, 450ppm
Publications
• Fisher-Vanden, K., K. Schu, I. Sue Wing, and K. Calvin, 2012, “Decomposing the impact of alternative technology sets on future carbon emissions growth,” Energy Economics (34): S359-S365
• Daenzer, K. I. Sue Wing, K Fisher-Vanden, 2014, “Coal’s medium-run future under atmospheric greenhouse gas stabilization,” Climatic Change (123): pp763-783.
Ph
oen
ix R
egio
ns
& S
ecto
rs
Phoenix Regions
Australia & New Zealand
Rest of World
China & Taiwan
Japan
Korea
South Asia
Indonesia
India
Canada
USA
Mexico
Other Latin America
Columbia
Venezuela
Brazil
Central America & Caribbean
European Union 15
Other European Union 27
Western Other Europe
Eastern Other Europe
Russia
Central & Other Asia
Middle East
North Africa
Sub-Saharan Africa
South Africa
Industrial Sectors
Fishing
Agriculture
Forestry
Coal*
Oil*
Gas*
Transport Equipment
Mining & Quarrying
Construction
Machinery & Equipment nec
Clothing
Non-durable Goods
Food & Tobacco
Paper Products & Publishing
Wood Products
Refined Oil & Coal Products*
Chemicals, Rubber, Plastics
Non-metallic Minerals
Iron & Steel
Non-ferrous Metals
Electricity*
Transport (other)
Water Transport
Air Transport
Unspecified Other
Services