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Photo Seattle Times, 9/2012
Use of Advanced Dispersion Modeling
Examples for the Northwest
Susan O’Neill, Research Scientist USDA Forest Service, AirFire Team
FireInfo
Fuels
Total Consumption
TimeRate
Emissions
PlumeRise
Dispersion /Trajectories
SMARTFIRE2IRWINRx SysManualOther FCCS
FCCS-LFNFDRSHardyGVDSLANDFIRE*Ag*Other
CONSUME 3FOFEMFEPSEPMFLAMBEFINNClearSky (Ag)*Satellite*Other
Rx / WFFEPSFOFEMEPMWRAPIdealizedManualOther
FEPSLiteratureEPMFOFEMFLAMBEFINNOther
BriggsSEVManualOther
HYSPLITCalPuffCMAQVSMOKE
BlueSky Modeling Framework v 3.5
Large uncertainties exist with each modeling step
Met
WRFMM5NARRStation dataIdealized
Models Available
Online
BlueSky Wildfire Operational Runshttp://www.airfire.org/data/bluesky-daily/
BlueSky Playground – Do your own smoke (PM2.5) modelinghttp://playground.airfire.org/
NOAA HYSPLIT (Dispersion and Trajectories)http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/HYSPLIT.php
AIRPACT (Physical and Chemical processes)http://lar.wsu.edu/%5C/airpact/
“Picking a model of choice for the day is a little like speed-dating: too little time/information to make up the mind leading to regrets by the end of the date/shift.” - Wes Adkins, Meteorologist, National Weather Service, Juneau, AK
Daily BlueSky Production Runs1/31/2015 Satellite Fire Detections
http://www.airfire.org/data/bluesky-daily/
1.33 km
4 km
2 km
6 km
4 km4 km, 12 km
12 km1 km
The website provides information on status of the runs
Successful! Running late….
No Fires
http://www.airfire.org/data/bluesky-daily/
Failures show up in red.
Daily BlueSky Production Runs1/31/2015 Satellite Fire Detections & PM2.5, 12km
http://www.airfire.org/data/bluesky-daily/
Carlton Complex Washington State 2014
250,000 acres
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2014_Washington_state_wildfires
8/4/2014 6am
12 km NWS NAM1.33 km UW WRF4 km AIRPACT
8/4/2014 Noon
12 km NWS NAM1.33 km UW WRF4 km AIRPACT
Carlton Complex
August 2014
Washington Smoke BlogOn this gorgeous, clear day with no smoke, let's take a look at the differences between two air quality monitors located less than 9 miles apart in the same Methow Valley. The blue graphs indicate 1-hr average concentrations of PM2.5 while the red data points are 24-hr averages. Note that while the 24-hr values trended rather similar for the two sites (expected as they are spatially close) the peak 1-hr values differed greatly! Posted by Mike Broughton, FWS, ARA
Carlton Complex 2014080400Z, 8/4/2014 6am, 1.33 km Domain
Winthrop
Twisp
Carlton Complex 2014080400Z, 8/4/2014 6am, 12 km Domain
Winthrop
Twisp
BlueSky Playground – allows users to do custom runsplayground.airfire.org
NOAA HYSPLIT Dispersion
Trajectory – Simulates where a parcel of air would travel, given: A Release Location Release Height Date and Time
Many meteorological choices
http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/HYSPLIT.php
Bend, Oregon Smoke Intrusions
Project Gain a better understanding
of meteorological conditions around Bend to minimize risk of smoke intrusions.
Improve our understanding of the smoke dispersion model performance.
Field Work Fall 2014 Spring 2015
Monitors Meteorological
Stations E-Samplers
(PM2.5) Modeling
1km 4km
NWS 1km
10/6/2014 5am
PNW 4km
10/6/2014 5am
Current & Future Work/Activities
BlueSky Canada & include Canadian Emissions
NOAA HYSPLIT – Updating BSFBlueSky-liteUpdated Emission FactorsContinue working with the Interagency
Wildfire Air Quality Response ProgramSF2 integration with IRWIN
Upcoming ConferenceIAWF 13th International Wildland Fire Safety Summit and 4th Human Dimensions of Wildland Fire,
Boise, IDApril 20-24
Workshop: Wildland Fire Smoke Health Effects Research and Tools to Inform Public Health Policy and Recommendations (8:30 am 4/20/2015)
https://inawf.memberclicks.net/upcoming-conferences
Thank you!
Susan O’[email protected]@gmail.com 206-732-7851
Many thanks to a cast of thousands (OK, maybe 10’s). Here’s an incomplete list (in no particular order):
Sue Ferguson Janice PetersonSim LarkinMiriam RorigSusan O’Neill Robert SolomonCandace Krull Joel DubowyRamesh Narasimhan Pete LahmRoger Ottmar Susan PrichardSonoma Tech, Inc.
