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Pilot KnowledgeSurvey

By Bob Jackson,MIC, ZSE CWSU

And Accident Study

Weather

??

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Introduction - 1

• A well known ground school syllabus– allots 2 hours for weather theory.– Assumes pilots will improve their

weather knowledge

• Further weather study SHOULD BE mandatory for pilots.

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Introduction - 2

• Survey given to Certified Flight Instructors– CFI’s considered by some as the

‘Crème de la Crème of pilots’– Given in 1989– 238 responded

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The Survey - 1

• Survey consisted of five questions:– What license do you hold?– What is main source of additional

weather knowledge since ground school?

– Are you comfortable with present Weather knowledge?

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The Survey - 2

• Survey questions continued:– What is the average number of safety

seminars attended per year?– If you could choose a weather topic

for the next safety seminar, what would it be?

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License Held ?

CommercialPrivate

ATP

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Comfortable with presentknowledge of weather?

36% Yes

55% No9% Sometimes

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Source of additional weatherknowledge since receiving

license?

28% Books

6% Classroom

12% Audio/Visual25% Seminars

29% IN FLIGHT !!!

This is notwhere to learn aboutWeather

Trial&

Error

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Number of safety seminarsattended per year ?

57% -- 1 to 4

8% -- 5 to 8

1% -- 9 to 12

35% --Rarely attend

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Comfortable with presentknowledge of weather?

36% Yes55% No

9% Sometimes

49% of these rarely attended aviation safety seminars !!

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What Wx Topic Do You Want to See Next?

• Basic Weather Principles• How to read Weather Charts• How to get the most from a Pilot

Weather Briefing• In-flight weather recognition• Fronts, pressure systems• Icing and Turbulence

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Weather is a “Weak Point”to most GA Pilots

• ‘Poor’ knowledge gained from ground school

• Little/no additional training • In-flight is Not place to learn

about weather!!

FriendlySkies??

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Trial and Error

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How Much of Aviation Training is Trial and Error?

• Take-offs ?• Landings ?• Aeronautics ?• Radio use ?• Aircraft instruments?

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Survey Suggests

• Proper emphasis NOT put on weather training.

• Weather is Learned by “Trial and Error” !!!!

• Not the way to learn about Weather!!

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Two NTSB Studies of Non-Fatal (GA) Wx

Accidents

• Unfavorable cross winds major cause

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Two NTSB studiesFatal (GA) Wx accidents

• Lowering ceilings during flight• Lowering Visibilities during flight• i.e. Continued VFR flight into IFR

conditions• “Violent Weather” was factor in a

SMALL PERCENTAGE of fatal accidents.

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NTSB RECOMMENDATIONS

• Visit FAA Flight Service Station• Visit NWS Forecast office

– Make arrangements first

• Familiarize with local terrain/weather patterns.

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National Statistics for 10 Yrs.

• Lightning• Tornado• Hurricane• Flood• Total Fatalities

– 2,023

• Total Fatalities– 3,504

• 1,518 more– Almost twice as

many !!!

US Wx RelatedDeaths

Wx as Causal factorin Aircraft Accidents

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Familiarize with Local Terrain/Weather Patterns.

• Other pilots• Seminars• Books or Newsletters

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Example: VFR FlightThrough the Cascades

• 3,000 ft Elevation• Can not see pass in

advance• Narrow, steep sides• No place to do 180

turn• Steep terrain makes

up for low elevation

• 3,800 ft Elevation• Can see pass in

advance• Wider with ‘sides’

further apart• Wide enough to

do 180 turn

Snoqualmie Pass Stampede Pass

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Example: VFR FlightThrough the Cascades

Stampede Pass

Snoqualmie Pass

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Example: VFR FlightThrough the Cascades

150 Deg. Curve

A ‘Straight Shot’

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Example: VFR FlightThrough the Cascades

Box canyons

Left turns

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Example of local ‘Rule of Thumbs’

• No Rule of Thumb works all the

time.• If you can not fly VFR through

Stampede Pass...– You can not fly VFR through

Snoqualmie Pass

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Example of local ‘Rule of Thumbs’

• If you can not fly VFR thru the

gorge,

– You can not fly VFR thru the passes.

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Aircraft Accidents

• Where?• What was the cause?• I’m Experienced !!

– It won’t happen to me -

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WA Accident Statistics

• Data received from NTSB• 16 Years (1983-1998)• Data for Fatal Accidents only• Looking for patterns

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WA Accident Causes• Dust/Haze -visibility restriction• Density Altitude• Icing • Turbulence• Wind• Improper IFR operations (IFR pilot)• VFR flight into IMC

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Density Altitude - 4 Dust/Haze -2

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Icing - 4

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Turbulence - 6

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Wind - 9 (Cross, Tail, Shear)

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IFR Conditions - 32

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VFR Flight intoIMC Conditions - 44

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All Factors

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Most Frequent Factors

• VFR into IFR• IFR Conditions• Wind• Icing• Density Altitude• Turbulence• Haze/Dust

44 43%32 31%10 9% 6 6% 5 5% 4 4% 2 2%

43%+31% 74%

Factor No. %

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Discussion - 1

• Total of 191 fatalities• VFR to IFR - Most pilots were

briefed about IFR weather in route.• IFR - Most used “improper IFR

procedures.”

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Discussion - 2

• Many flying on “Invalid Briefings”(old)

• Most had change to ‘back out’ but didn’t.

• Many “Overconfidence of pilot”

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Worst Month to Fly?

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Jan

Mar

May Ju

l

Sep

No

v

Accidents by Month

No of Acdnts.

No conclusions can be made here !

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Non-Instrument Rated ??

• Tempted to take off in marginal Wx?

• If you decide to go and get caught in IFR conditions, then…

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Faithful/Fatal Decision• Sky - overcast• You realize that visibility is

becoming restricted.• Ceiling and visibility gradually

lowering.• Map shows high terrain in area.• You’ve flown in worse, so…

– You press on.

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Faithful/Fatal Decision

• Flight could/should have waited.• Was that appointment so

important?

• When do you decide to do a 180?

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Faithful/Fatal Decision

• A Safe flight or

CRASH !!• What makes the difference?

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Summary - 1

• Pilots don’t get good weather training• Weather is a “Weak Point” for most

GA Pilots• Pilots need a good knowledge of

basic weather• Pilots need knowledge of local terrain

and it’s affects on flight.

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Summary - 2

• Violent, easily recognized weather– is not main cause of aviation

accidents

• IFR weather conditions– main cause of aviation accidents– Recognition and Avoidance needs to

be better taught to pilots

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TheThe

EnEndd