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8/12/2019 PinoyInvestor Free Version - 18 Nov 2013 Flyt
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17 Nov 2013 | www.pinoyinvestor.com
ping
PINOYINVESTORMake the right stock investment decisions with
the help of the country's top expert brokers
OUR OFFICIAL PARTNER BROKERS:
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* This section summarizes our partner brokers expected movement of the Philippine Stock Exchange index (PSEi) in
the coming week. Take note that the opinion primarily relies on Technical Analysis and may be useful only to short-
term traders. Long-term investors may consider this weeks outlook but should remember that the information isshort-term in nature and may not necessarily impact their long-term investing strategy.
THIS WEEKS MARKET OUTLOOKAs of 18 November 2013
BROKEROPINION
ISSUED ONSUPPORT RESISTANCE ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATION
Philippine
Stock
Exchange
index (PSEi)
First Metro
Securities
15 Nov
2013
6,200 /
6,191
None
given
The market managed to hold above itssupport at 6,191 to 6,200 as it approached
oversold conditions last week. However,
traders should still be cautious as it is still
vulnerable to continuing downward
pressures.
ACTION:Those who are long may continue
to lighten up on strength and look to buy
back if the market forms a support base via ahigher low. Counter-trend traders who
bought the bounce may look to trade the
range from 6,191 to 6,618. Keep stops on a
break below 6,191.
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Philippine
Stock
Exchange
index (PSEi)
AB Capital
Securities
15 Nov
20136,300 6,500
While the main index recovered from its
slump last Monday, movement has beencautious as earnings performance slowed
down in the third quarter. Last week's trade
established the sideways trading range
between 6,200 and 6,650. With technical
indicators at their oversold levels, the PSEi
could make a comeback to 6,400 but external
factors will still weigh, particularly the
upcoming FOMC minutes.
ACTION:We place the immediate support
at 6,300 and resistance at 6,500.
Philippine
StockExchange
index (PSEi)
F. Yap
Securities/2TradeAsia
15 Nov2013 6,300 6,375 /6,400
Investors will take their cue from trends
overseas, especially given hints from the
nominated Fed chief on the continuity of the
US stimulus plan. How this will be
undertaken, however, might still keep somefund managers afloat, as momentum could
slow in case details remain lacking.
ACTION:Trade the range. Immediate
support is 6,300, resistance at 6,370-6,400.
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GUIDE TO PINOYINVESTOR STOCK PICKS
STOCK PICKS MEANING TARGET INVESTORS TIME HORIZONAPPLICABLEINVESTMENTSTRATEGIES
PSE index
(PSEi) Stock
Picks
Top 10 stocks belonging to
the PSE index with the
highest number of Buy
recommendations from our
partner brokers, offering at
least 12% potential profit
Long-term investors
looking to invest in
companies with a good
track record that can
provide capital
appreciation in the next
5-10 years
Mid- to Long-
term
(at least
5-10 years)
Buy and
Hold or
Cost
Averaging
Growth /
Value Stock
Picks
Top 10 growth or value
stocks outside the PSE index
with the highest number of
Buy recommendations from
our partner brokers, offering
at least 12% potential profit
Long-term investors
looking to invest in
companies with high
potential for growth or
that are relatively
undervalued
Mid- to Long-
term
(at least
5-10 years)
Buy and
Hold or
Cost
Averaging
Speculative
Stock Picks
Top 10 stocks considered
high-risk or speculative,
offering the highest possible
profit among all stocks
Speculative traderslooking to make quick
trades that can result in
either huge gains or
losses
Short-term
(may be 1
year or less)
Market
Timing
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PSEINDEX (PSEI)STOCK PICKSAs of 18 November 2013
*CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUE: INCREASE IN TARGETPRICE || DECREASE INTARGET PRICE || CHANGE IN NUMBER OF RECOMMENDATIONS || NEWLY ADDED
Number of Brokers
recommendat ions
THIS WEEK All Prices in Philippine Peso (PHP)
Number of Brokers
recommendat ions
Last Week
STOCKCODE
COMPANY BUY HOLD SELL
BrokersAverageTargetPrice
ClosingPrice onNov. 15,
2013
PotentialProfit %
BrokersHighestTargetPrice
BrokersLowestTargetPrice
BUY HOLD SELL
1 XXXX XXXX XXXX 4 0 0 XXXX XXXX 38.81% XXXX XXXX 4 0 0
2 MBT Metrobank 4 0 0 ... XXXX 35.95% 137.32 90.00 4 0 0
3 XXXX XXXX XXXX 3 1 0 XXXX XXXX 76.49% XXXX XXXX 3 1 0
4 XXXX XXXX XXXX 3 1 0 XXXX XXXX 24.99% XXXX XXXX 3 1 0
5 XXXX XXXX XXXX 3 1 0 XXXX XXXX 14.84% XXXX XXXX 3 1 0
6 XXXX XXXX XXXX 3 1 0 XXXX XXXX 12.27% XXXX XXXX 3 1 0
7 XXXX XXXX XXXX 2 2 0 XXXX XXXX 125.99% XXXX XXXX 4 0 0
8 XXXX XXXX XXXX 2 2 0 XXXX XXXX 15.46% XXXX XXXX 2 2 0
9 XXXX XXXX XXXX 2 1 0 XXXX XXXX 37.58% XXXX XXXX 2 1 0
10 XXXX XXXX XXXX 2 1 0 XXXX XXXX 22.22% XXXX XXXX 2 1 0
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GROWTH/VALUE STOCK PICKSAs of 18 November 2013
*CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUE: INCREASE IN TARGETPRICE || DECREASE INTARGET PRICE || CHANGE IN NUMBER OF RECOMMENDATIONS || NEWLY ADDED
Number of Brokers
recommendat ions
THIS WEEK All Prices in Philippine Peso (PHP)
Number of Brokers
recommendat ions
Last Week
STOCKCODE
COMPANY BUY HOLD SELL
BrokersAverageTargetPrice
ClosingPrice onNov. 15,
2013
PotentialProfit %
BrokersHighestTargetPrice
BrokersLowestTargetPrice
BUY HOLD SELL
1 XXXX XXXX XXXX 4 0 0 XXXX XXXX 83.83% XXXX XXXX 4 0 0
2 XXXX XXXX XXXX 4 0 0 XXXX XXXX 65.13% XXXX XXXX 4 0 0
3 XXXX XXXX XXXX 4 0 0 XXXX XXXX 57.21% XXXX XXXX 4 0 0
4 XXXX XXXX XXXX 3 0 1 XXXX XXXX 50.58% XXXX XXXX 3 0 1
5 XXXX XXXX XXXX 3 0 0 XXXX XXXX 46.53% XXXX XXXX 3 0 0
6 SECB Security Bank 2 2 0 181.51 142.10 27.73% 232.74 142.50 2 2 0
7 XXXX XXXX XXXX 2 2 0 XXXX XXXX 19.19% XXXX XXXX 2 2 0
8 XXXX XXXX XXXX 2 1 0 XXXX XXXX 50.09% XXXX XXXX 2 1 0
9 XXXX XXXX XXXX 2 1 0 XXXX XXXX 18.44% XXXX XXXX 2 1 0
10 XXXX XXXX XXXX 2 0 0 XXXX XXXX 48.92% XXXX XXXX 2 0 0
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SPECULATIVE STOCK PICKSAs of 18 November 2013
*CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUE: INCREASE IN TARGETPRICE || DECREASE INTARGET PRICE || CHANGE IN NUMBER OF RECOMMENDATIONS || NEWLY ADDED
Number of Brokers
recommendat ions
THIS WEEK All Prices in Philippine Peso (PHP)
Number of Brokers
recommendat ions
Last Week
STOCKCODE
COMPANY BUY HOLD SELL
BrokersAverageTargetPrice
ClosingPrice onNov. 15,
2013
PotentialProfit %
BrokersHighestTargetPrice
BrokersLowestTargetPrice
BUY HOLD SELL
1 XXXX XXXX XXXX 1 0 0 XXXX XXXX 335.61% XXXX XXXX 1 0 0
2 XXXX XXXX XXXX 1 0 0 XXXX XXXX 289.62% XXXX XXXX 1 0 0
3 XXXX XXXX XXXX 1 0 0 XXXX XXXX 112.98% XXXX XXXX 1 0 0
4 XXXX XXXX XXXX 0 1 0 XXXX XXXX 104.39% XXXX XXXX 0 1 0
5 XXXX XXXX XXXX 1 0 0 XXXX XXXX 102.33% XXXX XXXX 1 0 0
6 XXXX XXXX XXXX 1 2 0 XXXX XXXX 90.64% XXXX XXXX 1 2 0
7 XXXX XXXX XXXX 0 2 0 XXXX XXXX 82.87% XXXX XXXX 0 2 0
8 XXXX XXXX XXXX 2 0 0 XXXX XXXX 59.09% XXXX XXXX 2 0 0
9 EEI EEI Corp 3 0 0 16.39 10.42 57.33% 17.44 14.80 3 0 0
10 XXXX XXXX XXXX 0 2 0 XXXX XXXX 48.99% XXXX XXXX 0 2 0
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CHANGES IN COMPOSITION OF STOCK PICKSAs of 18 November 2013
PSE index (PSEi) STOCK PICKS
DMCI Holdings (DMC)staged a price rally last week, closing at PHP53.00 on Friday a
5.8% increase in just one week. This caused the stock to inch closer to our partner
Brokers Average Target Price, which narrowed further its Profit Potential and explains
why DMC is dropping out of our Top 10 PSEi Stock Picks.
XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX(XXXX), meanwhile, is eased out of the stock picks after receiving a
price and recommendation downgrade from our partner brokers.XXXXstill offers a huge
target return, though, with a Profit Potential of 27.62%.
Two new stocks are added to our PSEi Stock Picks this week:XXXX XXXX XXXX(XXXX)with
a 12.27% Profit Potential andXXXX XXXX XXXX(XXXX)which offers a 22.22% potential
return.
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CHANGES IN COMPOSITION OF STOCK PICKSAs of 18 November 2013
GROWTH / VALUE STOCK PICKS
A new stockXXXX XXXX XXXX XXX(XXXX)makes its debut in the Top 10 Growth/Value
Stock Picks after several price declines in recent weeks render it relatively undervalued
with a huge potential for profits.XXXXcurrently has a 2 (Buy) / 0 (Hold) / 0 (Sell)
recommendation record from our partner brokers, offering a 48.92% target return.
XXXXreplacesABS-CBN Corp. (ABS)in the stock picks after the latter gained 4.4% in just
one week! ABS isXXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXX.
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CHANGES IN COMPOSITION OF STOCK PICKSAs of 18 November 2013
SPECULATIVE STOCK PICKS
XXXX XXXX XXXX(XXXX)returns to the Top 10 Speculative Stock Picks after weeks of price
declines made it relatively undervalued and more attractive compared to other
speculative stocks.XXXXoffers a huge profit potential of 48.99% versus its closing price
on Friday.
It replacedXXXX XXXX XXXX(XXXX)which may not be part of the stock picks anymore but
still provides a huge speculative target return of 46.96%.
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* Looking for more stocks to invest in? Here are our partner brokers recommendations on 30 other Actively Traded
PSE stocks. Take note that Target Prices are based on fundamental analysis, which means these stocks are typically
intendedformid- to long-term investing. Stocks are arranged from highest to lowest Profit Potential %.
TARGET PRICES OF 30OTHER PSESTOCKSAs of 18 November 2013
*CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUE: INCREASE IN TARGETPRICE || DECREASE IN TARGET PRICE || CHANGE IN NUMBER OF RECOMMENDATIONS ||
Brokers
recommendat ion
THIS WEEK All Prices in Philippine Peso (PHP)
Brokers
recommendat ion
Last Week
STOCK
CODE COMPANY BUY HOLD SELL
BrokersAverage
TargetPrice
ClosingPrice on
Nov. 15,2013
Potential
Profit %
BrokersHighest
TargetPrice
BrokersLowest
TargetPrice
BUY HOLD SELL
1 XXXX XXXX XXXX 1 1 0 XXXX XXXX 77.64% XXXX XXXX 1 1 0
2 XXXX XXXX XXXX 1 2 0 ... XXXX 59.57% XXXX XXXX 1 1 1
3 XXXX XXXX XXXX 1 0 0 XXXX XXXX 49.80% XXXX XXXX 1 0 0
4 XXXX XXXX XXXX 2 0 0 XXXX XXXX 46.96% XXXX XXXX 2 0 0
5 XXXX XXXX XXXX 2 0 0 XXXX XXXX 43.21% XXXX XXXX 2 0 0
6 XXXX XXXX XXXX 2 1 0 XXXX XXXX 36.10% XXXX XXXX 2 1 0
7 XXXX XXXX XXXX 1 1 0 XXXX XXXX 34.04% XXXX XXXX 1 1 0
8 XXXX XXXX XXXX 1 1 0 XXXX XXXX 29.51% XXXX XXXX 1 1 0
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Brokers
recommendat ion
THIS WEEK All Prices in Philippine Peso (PHP)
Brokers
recommendat ion
Last Week
STOCKCODE
COMPANY BUY HOLD SELLBrokersAverageTargetPrice
ClosingPrice onNov. 15,
2013
PotentialProfit
(Loss) %
BrokersHighestTargetPrice
BrokersLowestTargetPrice
BUY HOLD SELL
9 XXXX XXXX XXXX 1 3 0 00000 XXXX 27.62% XXXX XXXX 2 2 0
10 XXXX XXXX XXXX 1 2 0 XXXX XXXX 23.39% XXXX XXXX 1 2 0
11 XXXX XXXX XXXX 2 1 1 XXXX XXXX 21.69% XXXX XXXX 2 1 1
12 XXXX XXXX XXXX 0 2 0 XXXX XXXX 18.87% XXXX XXXX 0 2 0
13 XXXX XXXX XXXX 1 2 0 XXXX XXXX 17.97% XXXX XXXX 1 2 0
14 XXXX XXXX XXXX 0 3 0 XXXX XXXX 17.64% XXXX XXXX 0 3 0
15 XXXX XXXX XXXX 0 4 0 XXXX XXXX 17.51% XXXX XXXX 1 3 0
16 XXXX XXXX XXXX 1 3 0 00000 XXXX 16.77% XXXX XXXX 1 3 0
17 XXXX XXXX XXXX 1 3 0 00000 XXXX 16.31% XXXX XXXX 1 3 0
18 XXXX XXXX XXXX 1 3 0 XXXX XXXX 15.82% XXXX XXXX 1 3 0
19 XXXX XXXX XXXX 2 1 0 XXXX XXXX 12.16% XXXX XXXX 2 1 0
20 XXXX XXXX XXXX 2 2 0 XXXX XXXX 11.71% XXXX XXXX 2 2 0
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*CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ISSUE: INCREASE IN TARGETPRICE || DECREASE INTARGET PRICE ||CHANGE IN NUMBER OF RECOMMENDATIONS
Brokers
recommendat ion
THIS WEEK All Prices in Philippine Peso (PHP)
Brokers
recommendat ion
Last Week
STOCKCODE
COMPANY BUY HOLD SELL
BrokersAverageTargetPrice
ClosingPrice onNov. 15,
2013
PotentialProfit
(Loss) %
BrokersHighestTargetPrice
BrokersLowestTargetPrice
BUY HOLD SELL
21 XXXX XXXX XXXX 2 1 0 XXXX XXXX 10.47% XXXX XXXX 2 1 0
22 XXXX XXXX XXXX 1 3 0 XXXX XXXX 8.77% XXXX XXXX 1 3 0
23 XXXX XXXX XXXX 1 2 1 00000 XXXX 8.58% XXXX XXXX 1 2 1
24 XXXX XXXX XXXX 3 0 1 XXXX XXXX 6.68% XXXX XXXX 3 0 1
25 PGOLD Puregold 2 1 0 45.09 42.70 5.60% XXXX XXXX 1 2 0
26 XXXX XXXX XXXX 2 1 1 XXXX XXXX 1.52% XXXX XXXX 2 1 1
27 XXXX XXXX XXXX 2 2 0 XXXX XXXX -0.83% XXXX XXXX 2 2 0
28 XXXX XXXX XXXX 0 3 1 XXXX XXXX -12.16% XXXX XXXX 0 3 1
29 XXXX XXXX XXXX 0 3 0 XXXX XXXX -14.77% XXXX XXXX 0 3 0
30 XXXX XXXX XXXX 0 3 1 XXXX XXXX -17.24% XXXX XXXX 0 3 1
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* The Stock in Focus section summarizes our partner brokers analyses of a particular stock. This explains the
current stock performance, rationale for its target price, and future prospects.
STOCK IN FOCUS:AYALA CORPORATION (AC)As of 18 November 2013
Sector: ConglomeratesNumber of Brokers m aking the
recommendat ion
STOCKCODE
COMPANY BUY HOLD SELL
BrokersAverageTargetPrice
ClosingPrice onNov. 15,
2013
PotentialProfit %
BrokersHighestTargetPrice
BrokersLowestTargetPrice
AC Ayala Corp XX XX XX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX
AYALA CORP. (AC)s FINANCIAL AND VALUATION DATA (from Wealth Securities)
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STOCK IN FOCUS:AYALA CORPORATION (AC)As of 18 November 2013
Summary of Broker Recommendations
BROKERRECOM-
MENDATIONTARGETPRICE
TARGETPRICE
ISSUED ONSUMMARY OF BROKERS OPINION
Wealth
SecuritiesXXXX XXXX
15 Nov
2013
AC reported core net income of PHPXXXX XXXwhich
isXXXbyXX% year-on-year (YoY)driven byXXXX
XXXX XXXX XXin banking and property units, which
saw profits goXXXbyXlX% andXlX%, respectively.
XXXlXinterest expensesXXX XXXXthe healthy
toplineXXXXand EBIT marginXXXX XXXXin 3Q.
Financing charges wereXXXXby PHP2 billion to
PHP7.2 billion, as borrowingsXXXX XXXX XXXX
XXXX XXXX XXXX. As a result, ACs core profit in 3Q
wasXXXX XXXX XXXXbyXX% YoY.
AC will raise PHP10 billion in preferred shares thismonth with a rate of 5.25%. Proceeds will be used to
XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX
XXXX. This brings cash at the parent level to ~US$1
billion.
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Key upside to ACs earnings and valuation would be
theXXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX. AC is
pursuing nearlyXXXX XXXX XXXX XXXXto meet
increasing demand for base loads.XXXX XXXis
undergoing commissioning and is targeted to operate
early next year. Meanwhile, in infrastructure, its
Daang Hari project continued toXXXX XXXX XXXX
XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX. Completion date has been
XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX.
RECOMMENDATION:XXXX XXXXin Target Price
and recommendation. Ayala Corporation (AC) is a
XXllX, with a Target Price of PHPXXXXper share.
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* The Stock in Focus section summarizes our partner brokers analyses of a particular stock. This explains the
current stock performance, rationale for its target price, and future prospects.
STOCK IN FOCUS:ENERGY DEVELOPMENT CORP.(EDC)As of 18 November 2013
Sector: Power & WaterNumber of Brokers m aking the
recommendat ion
STOCKCODE
COMPANY BUY HOLD SELL
BrokersAverageTargetPrice
ClosingPrice onNov. 15,
2013
PotentialProfit %
BrokersHighestTargetPrice
BrokersLowestTargetPrice
EDC EnergyDevelopment Corp
XX XX XX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX
ENERGY DEVT CORP.(EDC)s FINANCIAL AND VALUATION DATA (from AB Capital Securities)
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STOCK IN FOCUS:ENERGY DEVELOPMENT CORP.(EDC)As of 18 November 2013
Summary of Broker Recommendations
BROKERRECOM-
MENDATIONTARGETPRICE
TARGETPRICE
ISSUED ONSUMMARY OF BROKERS OPINION
AB Capital
SecuritiesXXXX XXXX
12 Nov
2013
Super typhoon Yolanda battered the Visayas region
two weeks ago, whichXXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX
XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX. TheXXXX
Geothermal Field has four power plants: Malitbog
(232.5 MW), Mahanagdong (180 MW), Tongonan (112.5MW), and Upper Mahiao (125 MW). According to EDC,
XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX
XXXX. The Leyte Geothermal Field accounts for 56%
of total capacity and 40% of total revenues.
We estimate that there is approximately PHPXXXX
XXXXinXXXX XXXXper day since theXXXX XXXX
XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX. We base this on a75% load factor and an average price of PHPXXXper
kilowatt hour (P/KWh). This is extremely important as
if we assume that theXXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX
XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX, 2013F profits
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would be at PHPXXXX XXXwhich translates to a P/E
ofXlXx.
Our valuation is now at PHPXXlXfrom PHPXXlX.
Cash flow-based valuations areXXXX XXXX XXXX
XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX
XXXX XXXX XXXX. We likely see furtherXXXX
XXXXfor 2013 EPS given theXXXX XXXX. However,
we think the target priceXXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX
XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX.
RECOMMENDATION:Our rating for EDC isXXlXas we continue toXXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX
XXXX XXXXand itsXXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX
XXXX XXXX XXXX. Target Price is now at PHPXXXX
per share.
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* The Stock in Focus section summarizes our partner brokers analyses of a particular stock. This explains the
current stock performance, rationale for its target price, and future prospects.
STOCK IN FOCUS:GTCAPITAL HOLDINGS (GTCAP)As of 18 November 2013
Sector: ConglomeratesNumber of Brokers m aking the
recommendat ion
STOCKCODE
COMPANY BUY HOLD SELL
BrokersAverageTargetPrice
ClosingPrice onNov. 15,
2013
PotentialProfit %
BrokersHighestTargetPrice
BrokersLowestTargetPrice
GTCAP GT Capital Holdings XX XX XX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX
GT CAPITAL HOLDINGS (GTCAP)s FINANCIAL AND VALUATION DATA (from Wealth Securities)
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STOCK IN FOCUS:GTCAPITAL HOLDINGS (GTCAP)As of 18 November 2013
Summary of Broker Recommendations
BROKERRECOM-
MENDATIONTARGETPRICE
TARGETPRICE
ISSUED ONSUMMARY OF BROKERS OPINION
Wealth
SecuritiesXXXX XXXX
15 Nov
2013
GTCAP disclosed 9M (January to September) 2013 net
income of PHPXXX XXX, which isXXXbyXlX% YoY.
This was on aXXX%XXXin revenues mainly brought
about by the consolidation of Toyota and Global
Business Power (GBP). Net marginsXXXXdue to theasset infusion. Excluding the non-recurring income of
PHPXXXX XX, core profit amounted to a total of PHP
XXXX XX,XXXbyXXl% YoY. The profit represents
XXl% of our PHPXXXXXXXfull-year income estimate.
ExcludingXXXX, all units delivered as expected. Of
the component companies, onlyXXXXshowedXXXX
profits owing toXXXX XXXX XXXX. Toyota MotorsPhils (+XX%), Federal Land (+XX%), Metrobank
(+XlX%), and the insurance units (+XlX%) performed
XXXX XXXXour estimates.
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With respect to the impact of the recent typhoon,
management noted thatXXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX
XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX.
Both plants institutedXXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX
XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX.
RECOMMENDATION:We are more cautious about
the potential impact on GTCAPsXXXX XXbusinesses.
Barring any significant adverseXXXX XXXX XXXX
XXXX XXXX XXX(which it recently folded into the
company), we reiterate aXXXXreco on GTCAP.
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* The Stock in Focus section summarizes our partner brokers analyses of a particular stock. This explains the
current stock performance, rationale for its target price, and future prospects.
STOCK IN FOCUS:METROBANK (MBT)As of 18 November 2013
Sector: Banks & FinancialsNumber of Brokers m aking the
recommendat ion
STOCKCODE
COMPANY BUY HOLD SELL
BrokersAverageTargetPrice
ClosingPrice onNov. 15,
2013
PotentialProfit %
BrokersHighestTargetPrice
BrokersLowestTargetPrice
MBT Metrobank 4 0 0 109.31 80.40 35.95% 137.32 90.00
METROBANK (MBT)s FINANCIAL AND VALUATION DATA (from AB Capital Securities)
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The bank is adequately prepared for the
implementation of Basel III next year. Several asset
sales done this year were in preparation for the more
stringent requirements to be implemented on banks.
Consolidated assets totaled PHP1.3 trillion and
recorded a capital base of PHP137.9 billion.
Meanwhile, non-performing loans (NPL) ratio was
brought down further to 1.4% from 2.2% last year with
NPL coverage of 140%.
RECOMMENDATION:MBT remains a steadilygrowing bank with valuations that are below local and
regional peers. The bank's current P/E stands at 8.31x,
far below its other Asian counterparts and local peers.
We revise our target to reflect its high nine-month
earnings and increase in outstanding shares. Our
Target Price is now at PHP105.60 per share with a
BUY recommendation.
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* The Stock in Focus section summarizes our partner brokers analyses of a particular stock. This explains the
current stock performance, rationale for its target price, and future prospects.
STOCK IN FOCUS:MERALCO (MER)As of 18 November 2013
Sector: Power & WaterNumber of Brokers m aking the
recommendat ion
STOCKCODE
COMPANY BUY HOLD SELL
BrokersAverageTargetPrice
ClosingPrice onNov. 15,
2013
PotentialProfit %
BrokersHighestTargetPrice
BrokersLowestTargetPrice
MER Meralco XX XX XX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX
MERALCO (MER)s FINANCIAL AND VALUATION DATA (from AB Capital Securities)
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STOCK IN FOCUS:MERALCO (MER)As of 18 November 2013
Summary of Broker Recommendations
BROKERRECOM-
MENDATIONTARGETPRICE
TARGETPRICE
ISSUED ONSUMMARY OF BROKERS OPINION
AB Capital
SecuritiesXXXX XXXX
13 Nov
2013
MER reported nine-month net profits of PHPXXXX
XXXX,XXXX% year-on-year (YoY)and makes up
XXX% of our 2013 forecast. Last year nine-month (9M)
profits made upXXl% of full year profits. Revenues,
XXXX XXXXXXof our estimates at PHPXXXX XXX,XXXXl% YoY.Since Gigawatt-hours (GWh) salesXX
Xl%, this is attributable to aXXXX XXXX XXXX XX.
As disclosed to the stock exchange, MER purchased
XX% of Global Business Power (GBP) worth PHP
XXXX X. GBP has approximatelyXlXMW in capacity.
Additional income from GBP shouldXXXX XXXX
XXXX XXXX. Based on our estimates, it amounts toPHPXXXX XXXin 2013E and PHPXXXX XXXin
2014F. The cost of the stake isXXXXour fair value
estimate for GBP (currently at PHPXXXX XXX) which
means that change in valuation isXXXX XXXX XXXX.
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* The Stock in Focus section summarizes our partner brokers analyses of a particular stock. This explains the
current stock performance, rationale for its target price, and future prospects.
STOCK IN FOCUS:SECURITY BANK (SECB)As of 18 November 2013
Sector: Banks & FinancialsNumber of Brokers m aking the
recommendat ion
STOCKCODE
COMPANY BUY HOLD SELL
BrokersAverageTargetPrice
ClosingPrice onNov. 15,
2013
PotentialProfit %
BrokersHighestTargetPrice
BrokersLowestTargetPrice
SECB Security Bank XX XX XX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX
SECURITY BANK (SECB)s FINANCIAL AND VALUATION DATA (from AB Capital Securities)
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STOCK IN FOCUS:SECURITY BANK (SECB)As of 18 November 2013
Summary of Broker Recommendations
BROKERRECOM-
MENDATIONTARGETPRICE
TARGETPRICE
ISSUED ONSUMMARY OF BROKERS OPINION
AB Capital
SecuritiesXXXX XXXX
12 Nov
2013
SECBs Interest IncomeXXXX XXXXbyXX% from
PHPXXXX XXXto PHPXXXX XXXas of September
2013. Main driver for core revenues wasXXXX XXXX
XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX
XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXXwhichXXXX XXbyXXX%. Interest income from loans and
receivablesXXXX XXXXbyXlX% while Financial
investmentsXXXXbyXXl%. Overall, Net Interest
Income for the nine-month period wasXXXX XXat
PHPXXXX XXX, aXXXXXlX% growth as Interest
ExpenseXXXX XXXXthe top line.
SECB's industry-leading investment returns can beattributed to itsXXXX XXXX XXXXbut theXXXX
XXXX XXXXthis year as the bank postedXXXX
XXXX XXXnon-interest income, particularly its
trading gains.XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXXXXin Q3
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weighed on SECB's 9MXXXX XXXof PHPXXXlXXXX
as compared to PHPXXXX XXXXXXlyear-on-year.
On the other hand, SECB finally booked trading gains
on investment at amortized cost worth PHPXXXX XlXin Q3. Despite stable Interest Income, a much-needed
boost fromXXXX XXXX XXXXhasXXXX XXXSECB's
performance this year. We expect SECB's earnings to
beXXXXbyXXl% in 2013 with Return on Equity at
XXl%,XXXXfrom the bank'sXXl% benchmark.
RECOMMENDATION:We adjust our forecasts on
Security Bank Corporation (SECB) as core revenuesXXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX
XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX
XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX.
Despite a Target Price revision from PHPXXXX, we
place a aXXXXrecommendation on SECB as we expect
XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX
XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX. SECB is on route toXXXX XXXX XXXX XXXXbut moving forward, the
bank is poised forXXXX XXXX XXXX.
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* Important news and updates last week about top Philippines companies are highlighted in this section. These
developments can affect their respective stock prices so better read them to be in the know!
CORPORATE NEWS AND DISCLOSURESAs of 18 November 2013
COMPANY /STOCK
ANNOUNCEDON
NEWS / DISCLOSURES
Ayala
Corporation(AC)
15 Nov
2013
Ayala Corporation's net income for 9M13 rose 20% YoY to PHP10.4
billion. Excluding the impact of Globe's accelerated depreciation
(network modernization), core income rose to PHP12.3 billion.Strong performance of banking, property and water businesses
resulted in equity earnings of PHP13.9 billion, up 26% YoY.
Brokers (Wealth Securities) Analysis:Ayala Corporation's net income for 9M13 rose 20% YoY to
PHP10.4 billion. Excluding the impact of Globe's accelerated depreciation (network modernization),
core income rose to PHP12.3 billion. Strong performance of banking, property and water businesses
resulted in equity earnings of PHP13.9 billion, up 26% YoY.
AtlasConsolidated
Mining &
Development
Corporation
14 Nov
2013
AT announced 9M13 core net income of PHP2.1 billion, up 21%YoY despite a 3% YoY decline in revenues to PHP11 billion due to
lower realized copper metal prices. Reported net income is 20%
lower YoY at PHP1.6 billion given the unrealized forex losses of
PHP699 vs. the PHP434m in unrealized forex gains registered in
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East West
Banking
Corporation
(EW)
14 Nov
2013
EW yesterday disclosed 9M13 net income of PHPXXXX XXX,XXX
XlX% YoY. This was driven by theXXl% growth in net interest
income (PHPXXXX XX) and theXlX%XXXin non-interest income(PHPXXXX XX). Consumer and corporate loansXXXXXXbyXX%
andXXl% YoY, respectively. Total bank assetsXXXbyXXl% while
depositsXXlXbyXX%.XXXXof low-cost deposits (XXl%) outpaced
theXX%XXXXof high-cost deposits. Thus, net interest margin
XXXX XXtoXXl%, roughlyXlx the industry average. Meanwhile,
operating expenses increasedXX% as the bank incurred additional
costs related to itsXXXX XXXX XXXX XXXXprogram. The bank
now has a total ofXXXbranches. It aims to increase its branch
count toXXllby 1Q14 from onlyXXXin end-2011.
Brokers (Wealth Securities) Analysis:EW's 9M13 earnings accounted forXXl% of our full-year
forecasts. We continue to see EW asXXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX
XXXX XXXXthat is financed by rising contribution of low-cost deposits. This should justify the
relativelyXXXcosts related to its aggressive branch expansion program.
Emperador, Inc.
(EMP)
15 Nov
2013
EMPs core profitXXlXbyXXl% on the back ofXXXX XXXXof
22%. Outperformance was brought about by the sustainedXXXX
XXXXdespite price increases effected earlier this year. EBITDA
also slightlyXXXX XXtoXXX% in 9M13 from 29.5% a year ago.
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Brokers (Wealth Securities) Analysis:We believe the strong brand equity that Emperador has been
able to build has enabled it toXXXX XXXX XXXX XXXXand more that has taken its toll on itsXXXX
XXXXwhile expanding itsXXXX. Moreover, the company has a strongXXXX XXXXwhich it canleverage against itsXXXX XXXand use forXXXX XXXX XXXX. It currently has a cash hoard of
PHPXXXX XXXandXXXX XXXXdebt.
First Gen
Corporation(FGEN)
15 Nov2013
In a disclosure, First Gen Corp reported net income of
US$XXXXXXXXin 9M13,XXXlbyXXl% YoY on aXXl%XXXXX
in revenues. The latter arose fromXXXX XXXXfrom ancillary
services of First Gen Hydro and theXXl%XXXX Xin revenues
from First Gas plants due toXXXX XXXXof the plants andXXXXaverage gas prices.XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX
XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX. TheXXXXXXXXalso came amid the
higher stake in First Gas after FGEN acquired the 40% stake of
the BG Group. Taking out the extraordinary items, recurring
incomeXXlXbyXXl% YoY to US$XXXX XXX.
Brokers (Wealth Securities) Analysis:The results came atXXX% of our full-year earnings. In this
light,XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXXXXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX.
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GT Capital
Holdings, Inc.(GTCAP)
15 Nov
2013
GT Capital Holdings Inc reported that its net income for 9M13
XXXXbyXlX% to PHPXXXX XXXas revenuesXXXXbyXXX% to
PHPXXXX XXX. TheXXXX XXXrevenues came as a result of the
consolidation of a greater stake in Toyota Motor Philippines. All
subsidiariesXXXX XXXXin net income exceptXXXX XXXX XXXX
whose bottomline wasXXXX XXXX XXXX.
Brokers (Wealth Securities) Analysis:GTCAP's profitXXXXXXXXwas anchored on key
acquisitions that were folded into its financials early this year: TMP and GBP. The company's core
profit representsXXl% of our PHPXXXX XXXfull-year income estimate,XXXXXXXXwith consensus
numbers. There were service disruptions in GBP's power plants situated in Visayas, butXXXX XXXX
XXXX XXXX. We reiterate ourXXXXcall on GTCAP.
Megaworld
Corporation
(MEG)
14 Nov
2013
MEG announced aXXX% YoYXXXlXin 9M13 net income to
PHPXXXX XXX. This came on aXXX%XXXXin revenues to
PHPXXXX XXX. Total group presalesXXXXbyXlX% YoY to
PHPXXX XXXXof which PHP40.3 billion pertain to MEGs own
projects. No further details were given.
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Brokers (Wealth Securities) Analysis:The numbers indicate aXXXXXXXXin 3Q13 during which
we compute the earnings growth atXXX% vs. 17% in 1H13. MEG has yet to submit its detailed
financial statements but we believe that theXXXX XXXX XXXmay be partly due toXXXX XXXX XXX
in connection with the U$250m in newXXXX XXXX XXXX. At any rate, MEGs 9M13 net earnings are
stillXXXX XXXX(XXl%) of the full-year market consensus forecast. We will put out a more detailed
note pending the release of the financial statements and after the briefing.
Puregold Price
Club, Inc.
(PGOLD)
15 Nov
2013
Puregold reported earnings of PHPXXXX XXXin 9M13 and
PHPXXX XXXXfor 3Q13,XXXbyXXX%YoY. 3Q13 net earnings
grew at aXXXXpace ofXXl% YoY on revenue growth ofXXl% to
PHPXXXX XX. Operating marginXXXa bit toXXl% in 3Q13 vs.
7.07% in 1H13 as opexXXXXbyXX% thusXXXXrevenue growth.
Brokers(Wealth Securities) Analysis:Growth momentum hasXXXX XXXXsince 1Q13 as the
acquisition and consolidation of SNR in 2Q12XXXX XXXX XXXX XXXX XXX. We believe thatXXXX
XXXXmajor acquisitions, growth of PGOLD earnings willXXXX XXXX XX.
Security BankCorporation
(SECB)
15 Nov
2013
SECB disclosed that it received BSP's approval for the declaration
of a PHP0.50 per share regular semestral cash dividend andanother PHP0.50 per share special cash dividend. The record date
for SECB's PHP1.00 per share cash dividend is onXXXX XXXX
while the ex-date is onXXXX XXXX. The payment date for the
dividend is on 27 Dec 2013.
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* The Technicals Talk section summarizes our partner brokers technical analysis of select PSE stocks. Technical
Analysis relies on trends and price movements and is typically used for short-term trading. To learn more about
Technical Analysis, access the free educational resources at the PinoyInvestor Academy.
TECHNICALS TALK:FIRST PHILIPPINE HOLDINGS CORP (FPH)As of 18 November 2013
INDEX /STOCK
BROKEROPINION
ISSUED ONSUPPORT RESISTANCE ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATION
First
Philippine
Holdings
Corp.
(FPH)
First Metro
Securities
14 Nov
2013XXXX XXXX
FPHXXXX XXXX, following itsXXXXXinthe past months.
ACTION:XXXX XXXX XXXX. Look for the
stock toXXXX XXXXfirst beforeXXXX.
The next support is at PHPXXXXwhile
resistance is at PHPXXXX.
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* The Technicals Talk section summarizes our partner brokers technical analysis of select PSE stocks. Technical
Analysis relies on trends and price movements and is typically used for short-term trading. To learn more about
Technical Analysis, access the free educational resources at the PinoyInvestor Academy.
TECHNICALS TALK:ENERGY DEVELOPMENT CORP (EDC)As of 18 November 2013
INDEX /STOCK
BROKEROPINION
ISSUED ONSUPPORT RESISTANCE ANALYSIS AND RECOMMENDATION
Energy
Development
Corporation
(EDC)
First Metro
Securities
13 Nov
2013XXXX XXXX
EDC retests supportat PHPXXX, as sharp
XXXXin the past daysXXXX XXXX.
ACTION:XXXX XXXX. Buy atXXXX XXX
and sell onXXXX. Support levels are at
PHPXXXand PHPXXX. Resistance levels
are at PHPXXXand PHPXXX.
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ABOUT PINOYINVESTOR.COM
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ABOUT F.YAP SECURITIES,INC./2TRADEASIA.COM
F. Yap Securities, Inc. / 2TradeAsia.comis one of PinoyInvestors partners indelivering superior and reliable stock research reports and recommendations thatFilipino investors can depend on for smart stock investing decisions.
Company ProfileYapster e-Trade, Inc., through its website, www.2TradeAsia.com, is the online arm of F. Yap Securities, Inc. The companywas granted pioneer status by the Board of Investments on February 2001 as the first in the Philippines to provide a completesolution that integrates trading, financial planning and portfolio management capabilities online. 2TradeAsia provides thefollowing online services: Internet-based stock market trading; Real-time ticker and quotes; Philippine and international news;Daily, weekly and quarterly market commentary and outlook; Corporate features; and Portfolio and account management.
Definition of F. Yap Securities, Inc. / 2TradeAsia.coms Stock Ratings BuyStocks with sustainable and strong fundamentals. Target price is seen to be reached within the next 12 months. HoldStocks that are trading near or at fair value. SellStocks with unfavorable valuations and fundamentals due to risks or uncertainties within the next 6-12 months.
Contact InformationF. YAP SECURITIES, INC.17/F Lepanto Bldg., 8747 Paseo de Roxas
Makati City 1226Tel.: (632) 856-7680 / (632) 840-8330Fax: (632) 813-0865Email:[email protected]:www.2tradeasia.com
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ABOUT WEALTH SECURITIES,INC.
Wealth Securities is one of PinoyInvestors partners in delivering superiorand reliable stock research reports and recommendations that Filipinoinvestors can depend on for smart stock investing decisions.
Company ProfileWealth Securities Inc. is a leading stock brokerage in the Philippines and member of the Philippine Stock Exchange. It hasranked among the top 20 brokerages in the Philippines since its incorporation in November 1986. In 2000, Wealth receivedthe Euro Money Award for Excellence as the "Best Domestic Securities House in the Philippines". Wealth caters to both retailand institutional clients in the Philippines and overseas. With over 25 years of experience in equity securities, its researchteam is often quoted in local newspapers and journals for their stock picks and coverage of mid-to-large cap stocks. Over theyears, Wealth has developed a reputation for having a keen eye in spotting small companies with sound fundamentals andstrong growth potential.
Definition Wealth SecuritiesStock Ratings BuyOver the next 6 to 12 months, share price is expected to increase by 12% or more HoldOver the next 6 to 12 months, share price is expected to move within a range +/- 12% SellOver the next 6 to 12 months, share price is expected to decline by 12% or more
Contact InformationWEALTH SECURITIES INC.
2103-A East Tower, Philippine Stock Exchange CenterExchange Road, Ortigas CenterPasig City 1605Email:[email protected]:https://www.wealthsec.net
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ABOUTABCAPITAL SECURITIES,INC.
AB Capital Securities, Inc.is one of PinoyInvestorspartners indelivering superior and reliable stock research reports andrecommendations that Filipino investors can depend on for smart stockinvesting decisions.
Company ProfileAB Capital Securities, Incorporated (ABCSI), formerly Anscor Hagedorn Securities, Inc. or AHSI, has long been one of thePhilippines' leading stock brokerage firms. Today it takes pride in being one of the pioneers in online stock trading. With overthirty years of industry presence, AB Capital Securities, Inc. has become a major player in the Philippine financial markets.The firm consistently ranks among the country's top brokerages in terms of turnover.
Definition of AB Capital Securities, Inc.s Stock Ratings BuyStocks return is expected to outperform its industry counterparts HoldStock price has reached its Fair Value level SellStocks return is expected to underperform compared to its industry counterparts
Contact InformationAB CAPITAL SECURITIES, INC.Units 1401-1403, 14th Floor Tower One & Exchange Plaza Ayala Triangle,
Ayala Avenue Makati City, Metro Manila 1226Tel.: (632) 898-7555Fax: (632) 898-7596Email:[email protected]:www.abcapitalsecurities.com.ph
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