Plan your CSP business strategy with CSP Today’s market ... · Plan your CSP business strategy with CSP Today’s market potential analysis, project pipeline assessment and forecast

CSP Today Markets

Report 2015 – India

Plan your CSP business strategy in India: market potential analysis,

project pipeline assessment and forecast to 2025

B U S I N E S S I N T E L L I G E N C E

Critical analysis of

India’s CSP market

Insight into key drivers and barriers,

CSP regulatory framework and

project pipeline to help you form a

clear business strategy.

Markets Scorecard and

Forecast to 2025

Assess the potential for CSP

deployment and find out projected

installed CSP capacity within the

next ten years to position your

business ahead of the curve.

Understanding the

local CSP ecosystem

Find out who the key local

stakeholders are, including

government players and major

financing bodies as well as developers,

EPCs and component suppliers.

CSP Today Markets Reports Series 2015

Plan your CSP business strategy with CSP Today’s market potential analysis, project pipeline assessment and forecast to 2025.

Choose among the following countries: India, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the UAE and the USA


CSP Today Markets Report 2015 – Morocco

Plan your CSP business strategy in Morocco: market potential analysis,



Critical analysis of Morocco’s CSP market Insight into key drivers and barriers,




Markets Scorecard and Forecast to 2025Assess the potential for CSP





Understanding the local CSP ecosystemFind out who the key local





CSP Today Markets

Report 2015 – South Africa

Plan your CSP business strategy in South Africa: market potential analysis,



Critical analysis of

South Africa’s CSP market

Insight into key drivers and barriers,




Markets Scorecard and

Forecast to 2025

Assess the potential for CSP





Understanding the

local CSP ecosystem

Find out who the key local





Critical analysis of the CSP markets of your choice Insight into key drivers and barriers, CSP regulatory frameworks and project pipelines to help you form a clear business strategy.

Markets Scorecard and Forecast to 2025Assess the potential for CSP deployment and find out projected installed CSP capacity within the next ten years to position your business ahead of the curve.

Understanding the local CSP ecosystemFind out who the key local stakeholders are, including government players and major financing bodies as well as developers, EPCs and component suppliers.

CSP Today Markets Report 2015 – Saudi ArabiaPlan your CSP business strategy in Saudi Arabia: market potential analysis, project pipeline assessment and forecast to 2025


Critical analysis of Saudi Arabia’s CSP market Insight into key drivers and barriers, CSP regulatory framework and project pipeline to help you form a clear business strategy.



CSP Today Markets Report 2015 – UAE

Plan your CSP business strategy in the UAE: market potential analysis,



Critical analysis of the UAE’s CSP market Insight into key drivers and barriers,




Markets Scorecard and Forecast to 2025Assess the potential for CSP





Understanding the local CSP ecosystemFind out who the key local





CSP Today Markets Report 2015 – USA

Plan your CSP business strategy in the USA: market potential analysis, project pipeline assessment and forecast to 2025


Critical analysis of the U.S. CSP market Insight into key drivers and barriers, CSP regulatory framework and project pipeline to help you form a clear business strategy.



www.csptoday.com CSP TODAY MARKETS REPORTS SERIES 2015 | 1

Industry overview

With a global installed capacity of 4,085 MW as of September 2014, and an additional 235

MW in the commissioning pipeline, CSP is becoming a more established technology and the

whole sector is at an inflexion point. Given the gradual saturation of established markets, key

industry players are faced with the challenge of efficiently managing their limited resources

in order to expand into the most profitable emerging CSP markets.

By analyzing the CSP regulatory framework and critically assessing the macroeconomic

situation of each country, CSP Today has produced a series of six reports, each detailing the

growth potential of the technology in the country and the projected installed capacity to

2025 under three different scenarios (optimistic, conservative and pessimistic).

By harnessing the abundance of market information available, each report generates

strategic knowledge that provides unprecedented clarity in evaluating the current and future

potential of the CSP market analyzed. The thorough evaluation model enables CSP Today to

make a qualified assessment of key market opportunities and pitfalls, thereby facilitating

cross-market comparisons. This will assist you in making informed decisions and developing a

strong business strategy in order to profitably position your business in the most promising

emerging markets and drive the growth of your CSP activities.

Previous reports purchasers include:

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http://www.csptoday.com/


Key questions addressed in each report

What are the drivers of and barriers to the development of CSP in the country?

What is the current status of the CSP industry in the country analyzed?

Who are the main players in the CSP market?

How strong is the local supply and value chain?

How ready is the country for CSP? And what is the potential of its project pipeline?

How much installed CSP capacity can you expect by 2025?

Key reasons to buy these reports

Gain in depth analysis and insight into the CSP markets of your interest. Choose among

India, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, the UAE and the USA.

Policies and incentives: Navigate the CSP regulatory framework and uncover how much

support is granted to CSP by the local government.

Detailed project pipelines: Understand what trends are driving the CSP market analyzed

with pipeline’s breakdowns by project status and technology and detailed project data.

Supply chain: For each country, find a list of key players and potential local partners

including government agencies, developers, EPCs and component suppliers.

CSP Today’s Markets Scorecard 2015: Identify the best opportunities for investors and

understand how and why a country is ready for CSP or not.

CSP Today’s Markets Forecast 2015: Discover the projected global installed capacity up to

2025 and analyze the growth potential of the specific CSP market in three scenarios

(optimistic, conservative and pessimistic).

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Who needs these reports

The CSP Today Markets Reports Series 2015 is primarily aimed at business development roles

within suppliers and developers looking to expand their businesses into new markets.

Suppliers

Make informed decisions and develop a strong business strategy to position your

business into the most profitable emerging CSP markets.

Assess your competitive landscape in the markets of choice: see who the main

component suppliers are and identify potential openings in the supply chain.

Estimate your projected demand by assessing how much installed CSP capacity you can

expect up to 2025.

Developers

Ensure your business plan targets the most valuable CSP markets.

Discover what market opportunities and pitfalls other developers see in the markets you

are entering.

Learn how local content requirements may affect your development strategy.

Find out which raw materials and components can be locally sourced and explore the list

of your potential local partners.

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Local expertise

The CSP Today Markets Reports Series 2015 benefits from the contribution of key industry

experts with on-the-ground experience in the markets analyzed.

In-depth interviews have been conducted with top developers including Abengoa,

BrightSource Energy, Eskom, GDF Suez, Masdar, Reliance Power, SolarReserve and Sun & Life.

A number of experts from the most influential global organizations also contributed to the

quality of these reports, including the Asian Development Bank, the CSP Alliance, NREL, the

Solar Electric Power Association and the World Bank.

Swapnil Kumthekar, Business Development – Solar at Reliance Power, provided extremely

valuable insight into the report on CSP in India. Jonathan Walters, Senior Advisor at Castalia

Strategy, and previously a Director at the World Bank, peer reviewed the chapter on

Morocco, whilst Alexandre Allegue, General Manager at Sun & Life, contributed to the quality

of the report on Saudi Arabia.

CSP Today is also grateful to Daniel Schwab, Regional Director for Southern Africa,

BrightSource Energy for detailed feedback on the South African market, as well as Andrew

Wang, Director of Development, SolarReserve and Mary Grikas, Vice President of

Communications, SolarReserve, who acted as peer reviewers for the USA report.

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CSP Today Markets Reports Series 2015

Choose the report that best responds to your business needs:

Click here to see the Table of

Content of this report

Click here to see the Table of Content of this report


Click here to see the Table of

Content of this report



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Table of contents – India

Contents

List of Figures .......................................................................................................................................... 8

List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................ 8

Executive summary ................................................................................................................................. 9

1. Country overview .......................................................................................................................... 11

2. Electricity market .......................................................................................................................... 14

2.1. Electricity demand ................................................................................................................. 17

3. CSP market in India ........................................................................................................................ 18

3.1. CSP regulatory framework ..................................................................................................... 18

3.1.1. Renewable Purchase Obligations and Renewable Energy Certificates .......................... 18

3.1.2. The Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission ............................................................... 20

3.1.2.1. Phase I of JNNSM ................................................................................................... 21

3.1.2.2. Delays and extensions to Phase I ........................................................................... 22

3.1.3. Outside of JNNSM ......................................................................................................... 25

3.1.3.1. State-level initiatives ............................................................................................. 25

3.1.3.2. ADB-SECI innovation program ............................................................................... 27

3.1.3.3. CSP Research and Development center ................................................................ 27

3.1.4. Local content requirements .......................................................................................... 28

3.2. CSP project pipeline............................................................................................................... 29

3.3. Local CSP ecosystem ............................................................................................................. 31

3.3.1. Key government agencies ............................................................................................. 31

3.3.2. Independent Power Producers and utilities .................................................................. 33

3.3.3. Permitting agencies and feasibility study providers ...................................................... 34

3.3.4. Local consultants and R&D bodies ................................................................................ 36

3.3.5. Financing organizations ................................................................................................. 38

3.3.6. Developers and EPC Firms ............................................................................................. 42

3.3.7. Local component suppliers ............................................................................................ 44

3.3.8. Raw materials availability .............................................................................................. 48

4. CSP Today Market Scorecard and Forecast 2015 .......................................................................... 50

4.1. CSP Today Markets Scorecard 2015 ...................................................................................... 50

4.1.1. Introduction to the Scorecard ....................................................................................... 50

4.1.2. The potential for CSP in India ........................................................................................ 51

4.1.3. India compared to other key CSP markets .................................................................... 55

4.2. CSP Today Markets Forecast 2015 ........................................................................................ 56

4.2.1. Introduction to the Markets Forecast ........................................................................... 56

4.2.2. Global market forecast .................................................................................................. 57

4.2.3. Forecast CSP installed capacity in India ......................................................................... 60

APPENDIX A: List of CSP plants in the India ........................................................................................... 63

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APPENDIX B: Status definitions.............................................................................................................. 64

APPENDIX C: CSP Today Markets Scorecard 2015 methodology ........................................................... 65

APPENDIX D: CSP Today Markets Forecast 2015 methodology............................................................. 77

Acronyms............................................................................................................................................... 86

References ............................................................................................................................................. 88

List of Figures

Figure 1: Breakdown of installed capacity by fuel type ......................................................................... 11

Figure 2: Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI) in India .................................................................................. 12

Figure 3: Market structure diagram ...................................................................................................... 16

Figure 4: Power Sales Agreement contract structure in India ............................................................... 21

Figure 5: JNNSM Phase I CSP tariff trends ............................................................................................. 22

Figure 6: Breakdown of CSP capacity by status (MW) ........................................................................... 29

Figure 7: Breakdown of CSP capacity by technology (MW) ................................................................... 30

Figure 8: Breakdown of capacity by status and technology (MW) ........................................................ 30

Figure 9: India Markets Scorecard – Overview ...................................................................................... 51

Figure 10: Markets Scorecard – Comparison of key CSP markets ......................................................... 55

Figure 11: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 – Global market ................................................................... 57

Figure 12: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 – India .................................................................................. 60

List of Tables

Table 1: Country overview ..................................................................................................................... 11

Table 2: Drivers of and barriers to CSP in India ..................................................................................... 13

Table 3: Anticipated India power supply position for the year 2014-15................................................ 17

Table 4: Solar power capacity requirement by 2022 ............................................................................. 19

Table 5: Projects under Phase I of the JNNSM ...................................................................................... 23

Table 6: RPO targets in Gujarat ............................................................................................................. 25

Table 7: Minimum yearly capacity targets in Karnataka ........................................................................ 26

Table 8: Breakdown of capacity by status and technology (MW) ......................................................... 31

Table 9: Key government agencies in India ........................................................................................... 31

Table 10: Key Independent Water and Power Producers and utilities in India ..................................... 33

Table 11: Key permitting agencies and feasibility study providers in India ........................................... 34

Table 12: Key local consultants and R&D bodies in India ...................................................................... 36

Table 13: Key financing organizations in India ....................................................................................... 38

Table 14: Developers and EPCs in India ................................................................................................. 42

Table 15: Key local component suppliers in India ................................................................................. 44

Table 16: Key local raw material suppliers in India ................................................................................ 48

Table 17: India Markets Scorecard – Scores .......................................................................................... 51

Table 18: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 (key figures) – Global market ................................................ 57

Table 19: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 (key figures) – India ............................................................... 60

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Table of contents – Morocco Contents

List of Figures .......................................................................................................................................... 8

List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................ 8





2.2. Key players in the Moroccan electricity market .................................................................... 14

3. CSP market in Morocco ................................................................................................................. 17


3.1.1. Moroccan Solar Plan ...................................................................................................... 18

3.1.1.1. The Ouarzazate Solar Complex (Noor I-IV) ............................................................ 21





3.3.2. Utilities and Independent Power Producers .................................................................. 26

3.3.3. Permitting agencies and feasibility study providers ...................................................... 28



3.3.6. Developers and EPC firms.............................................................................................. 36

3.3.7. Local component supply ................................................................................................ 39


4. CSP Today Markets Scorecard and Forecast 2015......................................................................... 42



4.1.2. The potential for CSP in Morocco .................................................................................. 43

4.1.3. Morocco compared to other key CSP markets .............................................................. 47




4.2.3. Forecast CSP installed capacity in Morocco .................................................................. 52

APPENDIX A: List of CSP plants in Morocco ........................................................................................... 55




Acronyms............................................................................................................................................... 78

References ............................................................................................................................................. 80

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List of Figures


Figure 2: Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI) in Morocco ........................................................................... 12


Figure 4: Double PPA structure under the MSP .................................................................................... 20



Figure 7: Breakdown of capacity by status and technology (MW) ........................................................ 24

Figure 8: Morocco Markets Scorecard – Overview ............................................................................... 43

Figure 9: Markets Scorecard – Comparison of key CSP markets ........................................................... 47


Figure 11: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 – Morocco ............................................................................ 52

List of Tables


Table 2: Drivers of and barriers to CSP in Morocco ............................................................................... 13

Table 3: Technical specifications for Noor II and Noor III ...................................................................... 21

Table 4: Prequalified bidders for Noor II and III ..................................................................................... 22


Table 6: Key government agencies in Morocco ..................................................................................... 25

Table 7: Key utilities and IPPs in Morocco ............................................................................................. 26

Table 8: Key permitting agencies and feasibility study providers in Morocco ....................................... 28

Table 9: Key local consultants and R&D bodies in Morocco .................................................................. 29

Table 10: Key financing organizations in Morocco ................................................................................ 32

Table 11: Key developers and EPCs in Morocco .................................................................................... 36

Table 12: Key Local component suppliers in Morocco .......................................................................... 39

Table 13: Key raw materials suppliers in Morocco ................................................................................ 40

Table 14: Morocco Markets Scorecard – Scores ................................................................................... 43


Table 16: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 (key figures) – Morocco ........................................................ 52

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Table of contents – Saudi Arabia Contents

List of Figures .......................................................................................................................................... 8

List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................ 8




2.1. Grid transmission .................................................................................................................. 15


3. CSP market in Saudi Arabia ........................................................................................................... 18

3.1. CSP regulatory framework: the Competitive Procurement Process ...................................... 18

3.1.1. Procurement rounds ..................................................................................................... 19

3.1.2. Requirements ................................................................................................................ 20

3.1.3. Delays to the CPP .......................................................................................................... 27




3.3.2. Independent Water and Power Producers .................................................................... 31

3.3.3. Permitting agencies ....................................................................................................... 33



3.3.6. Utilities and transmission grid operators....................................................................... 36

3.3.7. Developers, EPCs and engineering companies .............................................................. 37


3.3.9. Raw material availability ................................................................................................ 44

4. CSP Today Market Scorecard and Forecast 2015 .......................................................................... 45



4.1.2. The potential for CSP in Saudi Arabia ............................................................................ 46

4.1.3. Saudi Arabia compared to other key CSP markets ........................................................ 50




4.2.3. Forecast CSP installed capacity in Saudi Arabia ............................................................. 55

APPENDIX A: Status definitions ............................................................................................................. 58

APPENDIX B: CSP Today Markets Scorecard 2015 methodology ........................................................... 59

APPENDIX C: CSP Today Markets Forecast 2015 methodology ............................................................. 71

Acronyms............................................................................................................................................... 80

References ............................................................................................................................................. 82

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List of Figures

Figure 1: Installed capacity by fuel type in Saudi Arabia........................................................................ 11

Figure 2: Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI) in Saudi Arabia ...................................................................... 12


Figure 4: CPP targets by technology ...................................................................................................... 19

Figure 5: Saudi Arabia Markets Scorecard – Overview .......................................................................... 46


Figure 7: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 – Global market ..................................................................... 52

Figure 8: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 – Saudi Arabia ........................................................................ 55

List of Tables


Table 2: Drivers of and barriers to CSP in Saudi Arabia ......................................................................... 13

Table 3: Technology-specific targets for Round 1 and 2........................................................................ 20

Table 4: Stage II key requirements ........................................................................................................ 21

Table 5: Stage III key requirements ....................................................................................................... 22

Table 6: Local cost factors for CSP – Parabolic Trough .......................................................................... 24

Table 7: Local cost factors for CSP – Power Tower ................................................................................ 25

Table 8: Ad-hoc requirements ............................................................................................................... 26

Table 9: CSP project pipeline in Saudi Arabia ........................................................................................ 28

Table 10: Key government agencies in Saudi Arabia ............................................................................. 29

Table 11: Key Independent Water and Power Producers in Saudi Arabia ............................................. 31

Table 12: Key permitting agencies in Saudi Arabia ................................................................................ 33

Table 13: Key local consultants and R&D bodies in Saudi Arabia .......................................................... 34

Table 14: Key financing organizations in Saudi Arabia........................................................................... 35

Table 15: Key utilities and transmission grid operators in Saudi Arabia ................................................ 36

Table 16: Key developers, EPCs and engineering companies in Saudi Arabia ....................................... 37

Table 17: Local component suppliers in Saudi Arabia ........................................................................... 42

Table 18: Raw material suppliers........................................................................................................... 44

Table 19: Saudi Arabia Markets Scorecard – Scores .............................................................................. 46


Table 21: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 (key figures) – Saudi Arabia ................................................... 55

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Table of contents – South Africa Contents

List of Figures .......................................................................................................................................... 8

List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................ 8






3. CSP market in South Africa ............................................................................................................ 19


3.1.1. Integrated Resource Plan for electricity (IRP) 2010-2030 ............................................. 19

3.1.2. Renewable Energy Independent Power Producer Procurement Program (REIPPPP) .... 21

3.1.2.1. Tariff scheme ......................................................................................................... 23

3.1.2.2. Local content requirements .................................................................................. 25

3.1.3. Bidding Windows under the REIPPPP ............................................................................ 25

3.1.3.1. Past Windows ........................................................................................................ 25

3.1.3.2. Window 3.5 ........................................................................................................... 26

3.1.3.3. Window 4 .............................................................................................................. 26









3.3.6.1. Pipes ...................................................................................................................... 37

3.3.6.2. Pumps .................................................................................................................... 38

3.3.6.3. Tracking devices .................................................................................................... 38

3.3.6.4. Receivers ............................................................................................................... 38

3.3.6.5. Power blocks ......................................................................................................... 38

3.3.6.6. Heat exchangers .................................................................................................... 38





4.1.2. The potential for CSP in South Africa............................................................................. 41

4.1.3. South Africa compared to other key CSP markets ......................................................... 45




4.2.3. Forecast CSP installed capacity in South Africa ............................................................. 50

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APPENDIX A: List of CSP plants in South Africa ...................................................................................... 53




Acronyms............................................................................................................................................... 77

References ............................................................................................................................................. 79

List of Figures


Figure 2: Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI) in South Africa ...................................................................... 12


Figure 4: Major projects of the Transmission Development Plan 2013-2022 ....................................... 16

Figure 5: Expected electricity demand trajectories to 2050 .................................................................. 17

Figure 6: South Africa’s morning and evening demand peak profiles (summer and winter) ................ 18

Figure 7: REIPPPP allocation (MW) per technology ............................................................................... 22

Figure 8: First stage qualification criteria for selection in the second stage.......................................... 23

Figure 9: Daily electricity demand and TOD payment outline ............................................................... 24

Figure 10: Window 4 allocation (MW) by technology ........................................................................... 27

Figure 11: Breakdown of CSP capacity by status (MW) ......................................................................... 28

Figure 12: Breakdown of CSP capacity by technology (MW) ................................................................. 29

Figure 13: Breakdown of capacity by status and technology (MW) ...................................................... 29

Figure 14: Typical project structure in the South African context ......................................................... 35

Figure 15: South Africa Markets Scorecard – Overview ........................................................................ 41



Figure 18: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 – South Africa ...................................................................... 50

List of Tables


Table 2: Drivers of and barriers to CSP in South Africa .......................................................................... 13

Table 3: Expected electricity demand to 2030 under different scenarios ............................................. 17

Table 4: Technology options arising from IRP 2010 and the Update Base Case in 2030 ....................... 20

Table 5: TOD payment breakdown ........................................................................................................ 24

Table 6: Bid submissions in Window 3.5 ............................................................................................... 26

Table 7: Window 4 key dates ................................................................................................................ 26


Table 9: Key government agencies in South Africa ................................................................................ 31

Table 10: Key permitting agencies in South Africa ................................................................................ 32

Table 11: Key local consultants and R&D bodies in South Africa ........................................................... 32

Table 12: Key financing organizations in South Africa ........................................................................... 33

Table 13: Key developers and EPCs in South Africa ............................................................................... 36

Table 14: South Africa Markets Scorecard – Scores .............................................................................. 41


Table 16: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 (key figures) – South Africa ................................................... 50

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Table of contents – the UAE Contents

List of Figures .......................................................................................................................................... 8

List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................ 8






3. CSP market in the UAE .................................................................................................................. 17


3.1.1. The Emirate of Dubai ..................................................................................................... 18

3.1.2. The Emirate of Abu Dhabi ............................................................................................. 18

3.2. Local content requirements .................................................................................................. 19




3.4.2. Independent Water and Power Producers .................................................................... 23

3.4.3. Local utilities and transmission grid operators .............................................................. 24



3.4.6. Financial organizations .................................................................................................. 30

3.4.7. Developers, EPCs and engineering companies .............................................................. 32






4.1.2. The potential for CSP in the UAE ................................................................................... 39

4.1.3. The UAE compared to other key CSP markets ............................................................... 43




4.2.3. Forecast CSP installed capacity in the UAE .................................................................... 48

APPENDIX A: Status definitions ............................................................................................................. 51

APPENDIX B: CSP Today Markets Scorecard 2015 methodology ........................................................... 52

APPENDIX C: CSP Today Markets Forecast 2015 methodology ............................................................. 64

Acronyms............................................................................................................................................... 73

References ............................................................................................................................................. 75

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List of Figures


Figure 2: Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI) in the UAE ............................................................................ 12


Figure 4: UAE Markets Scorecard – Overview ....................................................................................... 39


Figure 6: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 – Global market ..................................................................... 45

Figure 7: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 – UAE ..................................................................................... 48

List of Tables


Table 2: Drivers of and barriers to CSP in the UAE ................................................................................ 13

Table 3: CSP project pipeline in the UAE ............................................................................................... 20

Table 4: Key government agencies in the UAE ...................................................................................... 21

Table 5: Independent Water and Power Producers in the UAE ............................................................ 23

Table 6: Local utilities and transmission grid operators in the UAE....................................................... 24

Table 7: Key permitting agencies in the UAE ......................................................................................... 26

Table 8: Local consultants and R&D bodies in the UAE ......................................................................... 29

Table 9: Key financing institutions and banks in the UAE ...................................................................... 31

Table 10: Key developers and EPCs in the UAE ..................................................................................... 32

Table 11: Key local component suppliers .............................................................................................. 35

Table 12: Raw materials suppliers in the UAE ....................................................................................... 37

Table 13: UAE Markets Scorecard – Scores ........................................................................................... 39


Table 15: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 (key figures) – UAE ................................................................ 48

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Table of contents – the USA Contents

List of Figures .......................................................................................................................................... 8

List of Tables ............................................................................................................................................ 8




2.1. Structure of the electricity market ........................................................................................ 14

2.1.1. Regulation ..................................................................................................................... 14

2.1.2. Generation .................................................................................................................... 15

2.1.3. Grid transmission .......................................................................................................... 15

2.1.4. Distribution .................................................................................................................... 17


3. CSP market in the USA ................................................................................................................... 20

3.1. Renewable energy ................................................................................................................. 20

3.2. Current status of the CSP industry ........................................................................................ 21


3.3.1. Renewable energy initiatives ......................................................................................... 24

3.3.2. Financial incentives ....................................................................................................... 25

3.3.2.1. Loan Guarantees ................................................................................................... 25

3.3.2.2. SunShot initiative ................................................................................................... 26

3.3.2.3. FOCUS program ..................................................................................................... 28

3.3.2.4. Other federal-level initiatives ................................................................................ 28

3.3.2.5. State-level incentives ............................................................................................. 29





3.5.2. Utilities .......................................................................................................................... 34









4.1.2. The potential for CSP in the USA ................................................................................... 46

4.1.3. The USA compared to other key CSP markets ............................................................... 50


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4.2.3. Forecast CSP installed capacity in the USA .................................................................... 55

APPENDIX A: List of CSP plants in the USA ............................................................................................ 58




Acronyms............................................................................................................................................... 83

References ............................................................................................................................................. 86

List of Figures

Figure 1: Breakdown of electricity net generation by energy source .................................................... 11

Figure 2: Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI) in the United States .............................................................. 12

Figure 3: US national power grid ........................................................................................................... 16

Figure 4: NERC regional entities ............................................................................................................ 17


Figure 6: California’s summer daily electricity demand curve ............................................................... 19

Figure 7: US States with RPS or RPGs .................................................................................................... 25



Figure 10: Breakdown of capacity by status and technology (MW) ...................................................... 32

Figure 11: USA Markets Scorecard – Overview ..................................................................................... 46



Figure 14: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 – USA ................................................................................... 55

List of Tables


Table 2: Drivers of and barriers to CSP in the USA ................................................................................ 13

Table 3: New capacity installed in the USA in 2013 by fuel type ........................................................... 20

Table 4: Overview of other main federal policy initiatives in the USA ................................................... 28


Table 6: Key government agencies in the USA ...................................................................................... 33

Table 7: Utilities and Independent Power Producers in the USA .......................................................... 34

Table 8: Key permitting agencies in the USA ......................................................................................... 35

Table 9: Key local consultants and R&D bodies in the USA ................................................................... 38

Table 10: Key financial organizations in the USA ................................................................................... 39

Table 11: Key developers and EPC firms in the USA .............................................................................. 41

Table 12: Key local suppliers in the USA ................................................................................................ 43

Table 13: USA Markets Scorecard – Scores ........................................................................................... 46


Table 15: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 (key figures) – USA ................................................................ 55

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Methodology

CSP Today’s Markets Reports Series 2015 responds to the most critical needs of the CSP

industry, representing six months of research (primary and secondary) and culminating in a

series of six reports containing high-quality data and analysis.

Barriers and drivers: In-depth interviews with 25+ key industry experts and developers active

in the market analyzed.

Project pipelines: Making use of the CSP Today Global Tracker, all project data is industry

validated and accurate as of August 2014, providing detailed information of projects

announced, planned, in development, construction and operation.

Local CSP ecosystem: Building upon CSP Today’s proprietary data and the knowledge of local

authors and peer reviewers, the stakeholder map in each market has been outlined and

reviewed by on-the-ground players active in the local CSP market.

CSP Today’s Markets Scorecard 2015: Based on the score assigned to nine key indicators, the

Scorecard analyses strengths and weaknesses of the market and evaluates its current

potential and readiness for CSP. The key indicators taken into account in the Scorecard are:

MET

HO

DO

LOG

Y

Technical market potential

Evaluate the technical readiness and potential of the country for CSP.

Renewable energy support

Measure the presence of incentives to support the development of a renewable energy market.

Ease of finance Examine the bankability of renewable energy projects in the country, access to credit, and ease of doing business, as well as GDP growth and inflation.

National CSP targets Evaluate the CSP capacity targets announced by the governments and the likelihood of meeting these targets.

Permitting Determine the ease of obtaining various permits for CSP projects.

Industry readiness Assess the competence of the local industry and CSP supply chain.

Political and

economic stability

Measure the political and economic soundness of the country.

Energy sector Explore the level of dependence on fossil fuels and the need for additional

capacities to determine how CSP can fit within the country’s energy mix.

Project pipeline Consider the current status of CSP projects in the country to assess the level of CSP activity in the market.



CSP Today’s Forecast 2015: The Forecast presents an overview of the future deployment of

CSP in the global market as well as in the specific market analyzed leading up to 2025. Each

market forecast includes three different scenarios: optimistic, conservative and pessimistic.

Using up-to-date data from the CSP Today Global Tracker and insights from stakeholders on

the expected installed CSP capacities, the forecast aims to enable an assessment of the

longevity of the markets and the associated potential return on investments.

The approach used identifies parameters that affect each market in a specific way and

parameters that have the same influence globally. These parameters are then grouped and

categorized in five factors, namely Direct Global, Indirect Global, Direct Local, Indirect Local

and Decision Points (in direct competition with CSP).

Direct factor Indirect factor Decision Points

Glo

bal

Technology maturity

Market expansion

Environmental measures

International agreements

Conventional power costs

Loca

l

Ease of financing

Market saturation

National CSP targets

Local energy demand

Permitting

Incentives

Grid coverage

Water availability

DNI

Glo

bal

Global energy demand

Global economic stability

Loca

l

Political stability

Population/economic growth

High cost of energy

Presence of supporting industries and local expertise

Unconventional fossil fuel reserves

PV price

MET

HO

DO

LOG

Y



Extract from the Markets Report 2015 – USA 4.1.1. Global market forecast

Figure 1: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 – Global market

Table 1: Installed CSP capacity to 2025 (key figures) – Global market

Year Optimistic Conservative Pessimistic

2013 3,565 3,565 3,565

2014 4,895 4,562 4,320

2015 5,253 4,906 4,518

2020 9,535 7,744 6,674

2025 17,078 11,284 8,243

0

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)

Historical Optimistic Conservative Pessimistic

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T The below extract has been taken from the Markets Scorecard and Forecast chapter of the CSP Today Markets Report 2015 – USA. The contents of the chapter examine the country’s readiness for CSP and the growth potential to 2025 both globally and in the USA specifically.



Optimistic scenario

The optimistic scenario for the global forecast

is largely influenced by the availability of

incentives in key CSP markets, a parameter

that is assigned the highest value (9). Such

incentives include feed-in-tariffs (which helped

drive CSP growth in Spain and more recently in

South Africa), as well as capital subsidies,

investment tax credits, and public competitive

bidding.

Local energy demand, which scored 3.5, is also

considered to be a direct contributor to CSP

deployment decisions. Countries such as

Morocco, India and South Africa are spending

billions of dollars on fuel imports every year in

order to meet burgeoning demand. It is no

coincidence that all three countries have set

ambitious solar energy targets and are

constructing their first CSP plants.

While an increasing demand for energy can

galvanize government interest in CSP, national

CSP targets motivate the global industry as

they prove political commitment to CSP. The

positive impact of such targets has led to

assigning this parameter a value of 4.

Overall, the optimistic scenario forecasts that

global CSP capacity will increase from 3,565

MW in 2013 to 5,253 MW by 2015. In the

longer term, this capacity is projected to rise

to 9,535 MW by 2020, and 17,078 MW by

2025.

Conservative scenario

The conservative scenario acknowledges the

fact that CSP technologies are progressing fast,

and the encouraging DNI available in many CSP

markets. Indeed, these parameters

(technology maturity and DNI) score 3 and 5

respectively.

Nevertheless, the scenario is negatively

influenced by the fact that water scarcity is a

common issue in high-DNI locations.

Consequently, the use of dry cooling systems

is required, which in turn leads to efficiency

losses. Therefore, water availability

contributes with a value of 0. Conventional

power cost is also regarded as a challenging

aspect to the global deployment of CSP, given

that fossil fuel prices are still cheaper than

those of CSP, and subsidized by the

government in some countries. This explains

the negative value of -2.5 assigned to this

parameter.

Weighing in the above parameters, the

conservative scenario forecasts that global

installed CSP capacity will increase from 3,565

MW in 2013 to 4,906 by 2015. In the longer

term, this capacity is projected to rise to 7,744

MW by 2020, and 11,284 MW by 2025.

Pessimistic scenario

In addition to water availability and

conventional power cost, the pessimistic

scenario considers grid coverage issues in CSP

markets. Indeed, CSP plants can take years to

connect to the grid as they are usually far from

load centers, and therefore need larger

evacuation capacities and extended

transmission lines. South Africa’s Transmission

Development Plan, for example, foresees the

installation of an additional 12,733 km of lines

by 2022 (Eskom, 2013d). The cost implications

of these required expansions can also be

extremely high. For instance, the high-voltage

connection for the Shams 1 CSP plant in the

UAE cost more than US$ 25.5 million (Al-Ali,

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2012). These challenges in grid coverage are

reflected in its corresponding value of -1.

Finally, in light of the increasing production of

unconventional fossil fuels in the global

market, and the decreasing price of PV, CSP

will need to achieve substantial cost

reductions in order to become as competitive.

In fact, unconventional fossil fuel reserves and

PV price are considered as decision points in

global CSP growth, scoring negative values of

-1 and -3.5 respectively.

As a result, the pessimistic scenario forecasts

that global installed CSP capacity will increase

from 3,565 MW in 2013 to 4,518 MW by 2015.

In the longer term, this capacity is projected to

rise to 6,674 MW by 2020 and 8,243 MW by

2025.

REP

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About CSP Today

CSP Today is the reference point for Concentrated Solar Power (CSP) professionals and a cornerstone for communications within the industry. We have been the leading provider in this global market for the past eight years. We provide industry-focused news, events and online up-to-the minute data, analyses, reports, updates and information for the CSP industry. CSP Today's objective is to be the hub of the community, enabling dialogue throughout the industry. We aim to drive CSP forwards and provide clients with the most accurate and timely project and plant intelligence, based on research of the highest quality. Everyday CSP Today experts are on the phone with EPCs, developers, suppliers, as well as financiers, utilities and government bodies in order to provide you with the latest, verified global industry data and information.

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Thought leadership:

CSP Today’s Business Intelligence Portfolio

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The next few years are likely to be defining ones for the future development of CSP in Chile and the opportunities are beginning to develop. Plan your business strategy with this exclusive report, which offers you:

Critical analysis of Chile’s CSP market: Get insight into government policies and incentives and find out who the main players are, including developers, EPCs and financing firms.

Market forecast to 2024: Design your long-term strategy with the report´s market forecast to 2024, including a concise look at Chile´s CSP development opportunities.

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Localized techno-economic analysis: Obtain industry validated cost information and localized techno-economic analysis in order to plan the financing of your CSP project.

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The CSP Today Global Tracker provides easy access to current CSP market, policy, project and supplier data. This is the industry’s first live and interactive map, providing data on:

CSP plants at every single stage across the globe: Announced, planning, development, construction, commissioned and in operation.

In-depth CSP plant data: Access all plants details including technology choice, technical specification, stakeholders, suppliers, incentives and finance.

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CSP Today Quarterly Update

CSP Today’s Quarterly Update provides a comprehensive analysis of the industry utilizing data from the CSP Today Global Tracker. It acts as an easily digestible guide to recent industry developments in order to enhance your understanding of the global CSP picture.

With a new issue every quarter, this tool gives you:

Insight into the latest announcements, project updates and investments, with CSP Today analysis into their importance and impact on the industry.

Comparisons across 30 CSP markets, which allow you to see project pipelines, technology selections, companies involved and megawatt capacities.

A breakdown of key opportunities in each of the major markets, detailing how the latest developments may affect your business strategy.

Updated predictions on the hottest markets and what your business can expect in the following quarters.

CSP Today Technology Reports 2014

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Through industry-validated cost information, localized techno-economic analysis and inter-market benchmarking, these reports bring unprecedented clarity on Parabolic Trough and Solar Tower technology across eight global markets, enabling you to separate the fact from the hype.

Critical market specific cost data: Receive the most up-to-date, industry validated cost data breakdowns from CAPEX to OPEX in defined optimal Parabolic Trough and Solar Tower plants across eight markets (Chile, India, Morocco, Spain, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, UAE and USA).

Realistic LCOE models: Determine the LCOE of Parabolic Trough and Solar Tower technology by market, benchmark emerging CSP markets against the traditional key markets and identify the longitudinal trend with market specific LCOE forecasts.

Energy yield and performance output data and analysis: Identify and benchmark the market specific energy yield and performance characteristics, including solar field thermal output, online parasitics, net energy, total operating hours, solar-to-electricity efficiency and water consumption.

The evolution of Thermal Storage (TES): Use the global project pipelines to understand how and to what extent TES is being increasingly incorporated into Parabolic Trough and Solar Tower plants, and gain insight into the latest R&D initiatives in TES tipped to reduce cost and optimize performance.

Market share of Parabolic Trough and Solar Tower technology: Strategize your investment and gauge your profit by understanding the long-term market share, growth and viability of these technologies, including market-by-market pipelines and key comparisons with other CSP technologies.

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