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Planejamento do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro “Brazilian Power Sector Planning”. Empresa de Pesquisa Energética – EPE International Colloquium “Sustainability and Environmental Assessment Methodologies: The International Experience on Power Developments” - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Planejamento do Setor Elétrico Brasileiro“Brazilian Power Sector Planning”
Empresa de Pesquisa Energética – EPEInternational Colloquium
“Sustainability and Environmental Assessment Methodologies: The International Experience on Power
Developments”
“Metodologias de Avaliação Ambiental e Sustentabilidade: A Experiência Internacional na
Expansão do Sistema Eletroenergético”.Recife, PEJuly 15th, 2009
Energy Planning in Brazil
HYDROELECTRIC PREDOMINANCE
LONG TRANSMISSION LINES
INTENSIVE CAPITAL
LONG TERM INVESTMENTS
HIGH INCERTANTIES
MULTIPLE OBJECTIVES
COMPLEMENTARY GENERATION
SEASONALITY
Brazilian Power Sector Planning
RISK ANALYSIS
FAIR TARIFF
DIVERSITY
INTEGRATION
ENERGY SECURITY
NATIONAL ENERGY PLANNING
NATIONA ENERGY OUTLOOK
TEN YEARS ENERGY PLANNING
AUCTIONS
Crude Oil and Natural Gas
Electric PowerTransmission
Biodiesel
PROGRAMMING VIEW
SHORT AND MEDIUM TERM STUDIES (10 YEARS AHEAD)
STRATEGY VIEW
LONG TERM STUDIES (30 YEARS AHEAD)
Planning Process
SOURCES 2005 2015 2030
Large Hydro Power Plants 68.6 99.0 156.3
Thermal Power Plants 16.9 24.3 39.9
Natural Gas 8.7 13.0 21.0
Nuclear 2.0 3.3 7.3
Coal 1.4 2.5 6.0
Other 4.8 5.5 5.5
Alternatives 1.4 5.5 20.3
Small Hydro 1.3 2.3 7.7
Wind - 1.4 4.7
Biomass 0.1 1.8 7.9
Imports + Other 13.6 13.3 8.4
TOTAL 100.5 142.1 224.9
Scenarios for Electricity 2030 (GW)
Source: PNE 2030
Source: Balanço Energético Nacional. EPE, 2006
44.5
13.3
6.0
55.5
86.7
94.0
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Brazil (2005)
World (2003)
OECDCountries
(2003)
Renewables
Non - renewables
Energy in Brazil – Renewable Sources Share
Energy Integration
NATURAL ENERGY INFLOW (p.u.)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC
SUDESTE
SUL
NORDESTE
NORTE
ITAIPU
BELOMONTE
TAPAJÓS
MANAUS
MADEIRA
João Pessoa
Jacui
Porto Alegre
Florianópolis
Curitiba
São Paulo
Rio de Janeiro
Paraíbado Sul
Uruguai
Vitória
BeloHorizonte
Itaipu
Grande
Paranaíba
Paraná/Tietê
Campo Grande
Iguaçu
Tocantins
Belém
São Francisco
Parnaíba
São Luís
Teresina
Fortaleza
Natal
Recife
Maceió
Aracajú
SalvadorCuiabá
Goiânia
Brasília
Paranapanema
Argentina
SE/CO - 190
S - 18
NE - 52N - 12
Source: ONS – oct/2007
Storage Capacity (GWmed)
Storage Capacity Evolution
Maximum Storage / Demand
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
ma
i/08
ma
i/09
ma
i/10
ma
i/11
ma
i/12
ma
i/13
ma
i/14
ma
i/15
ma
i/16
ma
i/17
ma
i/18
ma
i/19
ma
i/20
ma
i/21
ma
i/22
ma
i/23
SUDESTE
SUL
NORDESTE
NORTE
ITAIPU
B.MONTE
TAPAJOS
MANAUS
MADEIRA
4.0
00 k
m4.0
00 k
m
Long Transmission Lines
2008
2012
JirauS.Antônio
Araraquara N.IguaçuAtibaia
Cuiabá
Teles Pires
500 km
Connecting Madeira, Belo Monte and Teles Pires Plants
B.MonteItacaiunas
Manaus
Transmission Lines Distribution
Planned SystemExisting System
Hydro Power Plants
São Francisco River 4317 MW
PA I, II, III
A. SALES
PA IV
Hydro Power Plant Life-Cycle in Brazil
Installing Hydro Power Plants
ENTREPRENEURANEEL
MMEANEELEPE
EPEENTREPRENEUR
INVENTORY STUDIES AND INTEGRATED
ENVIRONMENTAL EVALUATION
FEASIBILITY STUDIES AND STUDIES ON
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
ASSESSMENT
OPERATION CONSTRUCTIONBASIC PROJECTAUCTION
PRIORLICENSE
INSTALLATIONLICENSE
OPERATIONLICENSE
RENEWAL OFOPERATION
LICENSE
2 years 1.5 year > 50 years4 years1 year0.5 year
QUALIFICATION
Hydro Generation - Criteria and Procedures
Recommended Level of ActionLow Intermediate High
Special
Socio-environmental Analysis Category 1Category 2Category 3Category 4
Process Analysis CompatibleSmall delay
Delay
Socio-environmental Analysis Scheme
A B C D E
Assessment Scale (Level of Impact)
nonsignificant
lowsignificance
significant highsignificance
extremelysignificant
Impacts assessed
Two letters represent the assessment N N
socioeconomic and cultural dimension
Physic-biotical dimension
Classification of the projectsaccording to the assessment
Socioeconomical Dimension
A B C D E
A 1 1 2 3 4
B 1 1 2 3 4
C 2 2 2 3 4
D 3 3 3 4 4
E 4 4 4 4 4Ph
ysic
-bio
tic D
ime
nsi
on
Environmental Assessment of Hydroelectric Supply
•Physic-biotical environment•socioeconomic-cultural environment
Required Level of Action
Process Assessment
Compatible Small delay Delay
1 Low Low Intermediate
2 Low Intermediate Intermediate
3 Intermediate Intermediate High
4 High High High
Soc
io-e
nviro
nmen
tal
Cla
ssifi
catio
n
Viabilização da oferta hidroelétrica
Special Level of ActionAll projects with constraints to be qualified for taking part in the energy auctions
Hydro supply classification according to the level of action
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS (GHG)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Mt.
CO
2 e
q.
Óleo Combustível Gás NaturalÓleo Diesel Carvão MineralTOTAL
Accumulated value 2008-2017
Thermal Power Plants: 296 Mt CO2eq
Accumulated value 2008-2017
Thermal Power Plants: 296 Mt CO2eq 39 MtCO2eq.)
Fuel oilDieselTotal
Natural gasCoal
GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS (GHG)
2 8152 615
1 548
620 541424
26334 14 39
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
USACh
ina
Europe
Unio
nIn
diaJa
pan
Russ
ia
Sout
h Af
rica
Arge
ntina
Braz
il 200
8
Braz
il 201
7
Countries
Mt.
CO
2
GHG Emission(due to electricity production)
Biomass
possible expansion areas for the growing of sugar cane
Source: MME and MAPA apud Silvestrin in Theme Meetings at the EPE, 2006
Expansion Perspectives for Sugar Cane Production
The Ministry of the Agriculture is identifying the Brazilian land appropriated to produce sugarcane without impacting the environment.
Harvest106
ton/year 106
ha
2007 495 6.9
2010 570 7.5
2015 715 9.1
2030 1,140 13.9
Source: Tolmasquim et al (2005)
Technical Potential of Sugarcane Bagass
Production of sugar cane (millions of tons)
Technical Potential(TWh / year)
Generation technology Harvesting system 400 700 1.000
Backpressure cycle (current)
Without recovery 8.1 14.2 20.3
With recovery 116 20.4 29.1
Optimum backpressure cycle
Without recovery 24.3 42.6 60.8
With recovery 34.9 61 87.2
Condensation and extraction cycle
Without recovery 46.4 81.3 116.1
With recovery 77.5 135.6 193.7
Gasification of biomass and combined cycle
Without recovery 96.1 168.2 240.3
With recovery 142.2 248.8 355.5
Wind Power
Brazilian Wind Power Potential
• Brazilian Power Sector
•The estimated generation potential is about 31 GWmed, as much as 59% of the current energy market
•Taking into account the new technologies of wind power plants and the last wind measuring in Brazil (e.g. Atlas Eólico do Espírito Santo, Jun, 6th 2009), the total installed capacity can be higher than 300 GW.
Sources: Kuik, 2002 Kujava, 2003, apud Tolmasquim et al (2005)
1985 1989 1992 1994 1998 2000
Ø 112m4.500 kW
Ø 46m600 kW
Ø 37m500 kW
Ø 30m300 kW
Ø 15m50 kW
Ø 70m1.500 kW
Evolution of Wind Power Technology
Nuclear Energy
Source: INB, AIEA
Country 103 ton Share
Cazaquistan 957 21.0%
Australia 910 19.8%
South Africa 369 8.0%
USA 355 7.7%
Canada 332 7.2%
Brazil 309 6.7%
Namibia 287 6.3%
Subtotal 3,519 77.0%
Remainder 1,069 23.0%
World 4,588 100%
In 2003, the 77% of the conventional resources, with cost under US$ 130/kg U, were located in 7 countries (Brazil is the 6th)
Nuclear Energy in the World: Uranium Resources - 2003
Exploration Cost Reserves Generation Potential
< 40 US$/kg U 66,200 t U3O8 8,000 MW
< 80 US$/kg U 177,500 t U3O8 21,000 MW
< 80 US$/kg U(Inferred resources included )
309,370 t U3O8 35,000 MW
Assumptions
Lifetime: 40 years
Capacity Factor: 85%
Nuclear Power Potential in Brazil
Source: IEA (2004)0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
NUCLEAR
WIND
BIOMASS
HYDRO POWER
SOLAR PV
NATURAL GAS
OIL
COAL
LIGNITE
* Taking into account the lifecycle emissions
Greenhouse Gas Emissions
[g CO2-equiv. / kWh] (*)
Auction of “New” Energy
Ten Years Energy Planning
Technical Assessment of Energy Sources
Utilities’ Commitment to Buy Energy
List of Plants Qualified to Sell
Energy
Energy Auction
The Auction Process
Power Purchase Agreement from New Plants Law 10.848/2002
AA-1A-2A-3A-4A-5
Purchase in “A-3”
Auctions of “A-5” and “A-3”PPA with a term of 15 to 35 years
Hydro Plant Paulo Afonso/Bahia
Purchase in “A-5”
limited to 2% of the load from “A-5”
Power Auctions
Power Auctions PPA
João Pessoa
Porto Alegre
Florianópolis
Curitiba
São Paulo
Rio de Janeiro
Vitória
BeloHorizonte
Campo Grande
Belém
São Luís
Teresina
Fortaleza
Natal
Recife
MaceióAracajú
SalvadorCuiabá
Goiânia
Brasília
BILATERAL CONTRACTS
10
General DataInstalled Capacity : 3,150.4 MWTurbine: BulboUnities: 44 Unity Power Potential:71.6 MWFirm Energy: 2,218 MWmed
Energy AuctionDecember 10th, 2007
Energy Price - ACR78.87 R$/MWh or 46.95 US$/MWh*
Illustrative Design
Site
*1,68 R$ = 1,00 US$
Santo Antônio Hydro Power Plant - Madeira River
General DataInstalled Capacity : 3,300 MWTurbine: BulboUnities: 44 Unity Power Potential:75 MWFirm Energy: 1,975.3 MW médios
Energy AuctionMay 19th, 2008
Energy Price - ACR71.37 R$/MWh or 42.48 US$/MWh *
*1,68 R$ = 1,00 US$
Jirau Hydro Power Plant – Madeira River
Historical of Energy Auction
2005 2006 2007
dec/05 – 1º “New” Energy Auction
jun/06 – 2º “New” Energy Auction (A-3)
oct/06 – 3º “New” Energy Auction (A-5)
2008
jun/07 – 1º Alternative Energy Auction
jul/07 – 4º “New” Energy Auction (A-3)
oct/07 – 5º “New” Energy Auction (A-5)
dec/07 – 1º SP Auction - UHE Sto Antônio
38
may/08 – 2º SP Auction - UHE Jirau
- 1º Reserve Energy Auction
jul/08 – 5º “New” Energy Auction (A-3)
oct/08 – 6º “New” Energy Auction (A-5)
2009
39
aug/09 – 7º “New” Energy Auction (A-3)
oct/09 – 3º SP Auction - UHE Belo Monte
nov/09 - 2º Reserve Energy Auction
dec/09 – 8º “New” Energy Auction (A-5)
2009 - Energy Auction
Annual Capacity Growth (MW)
SOURCES 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 TOTALHYDRO 0 707 1 984 1 733 657 2 461 1 986 5 397 7 342 6 536 28 805SMALL HYDRO 0 1 207 1 103 155 30 414 875 320 320 0 4 423NUCLEAR 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 350 0 0 0 1 350FUEL OIL 0 304 1 732 1 440 426 3 618 0 0 0 0 7 520NATURAL GAS 371 110 216 496 564 1 677 0 0 0 0 3 434DIESEL 0 859 174 0 -564 -553 0 0 0 0 -83COAL 0 0 350 700 350 360 0 0 0 0 1 760BIOMASS 20 655 2 360 59 0 114 0 0 0 0 3 208WIND 0 771 378 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 149OTHERS 0 490 0 0 0 0 0 900 0 0 1 390TOTAL 391 5 103 8 298 4 582 1 463 8 091 4 211 6 617 7 662 6 536 52 955
CHALLENGE
To supply energy at fair prices
to develop the countryfollowing the principles of
sustainable growth
Empresa de Pesquisa Energética - EPEAv. Rio Branco nº 1 11º andar Centro Rio de Janeiro
Thanks for your attention!