1

Planetary Defense Activitiesat NASA

Science Mission Directorate

Lindley JohnsonNEO Program Executive, NASA HQ

Aug 23 2011

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Current United States Government

Policies and ActivitiesRegarding Planetary Defense

Lindley JohnsonNEO Program Executive, NASA HQ

May 2011

Source

US Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) Letter to Congress dated 15 October, 2010*

Response to Section 804 of NASA Authorization Act of 2008

The Director of OSTP will:(1) develop a policy for notifying Federal agencies and relevant

emergency response institutions of an impending near-Earth object threat, if near-term public safety is at risk; and

(2) recommend a Federal agency or agencies to be responsible for –(A) protecting the United States from a near-Earth object that is expected to

collide with Earth; and(B) implementing a deflection campaign, in consultation with international

bodies, should one be necessary

* http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/ostp-letter-neo-senate.pdf3

Background• US National Space Policy, June 28, 2010*NASA shall: “Pursue capabilities, in cooperation with other departments,

agencies, and commercial partners, to detect, track, catalog, and characterize near-Earth objects to reduce the risk of harm to humans from an unexpected impact on our planet and to identify potentially resource-rich planetary objects.”* http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/national_space_policy_6-28-10.pdf

• US President’s FY2012 NASA Budget Request:“The expanded Near-Earth Orbit Observation (NEOO) program [$20.4M] will

improve and increase its efforts to detect Earth approaching asteroids and comets that may provide resources for our exploration of the inner solar system, or could become potential impact hazards to the Earth. It will also expand efforts to characterize their nature, both to better understand their composition and provide information for study of potential hazard mitigation techniques.”

• US President’s new plan for human space flight, announced April 15, 2010*, establishes the goal of conducting a human mission to an NEO by 2025* http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-space-exploration-21st-century

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NEO Threat DetectionWithin US Government:• NASA will coordinate NEO detection and threat information

from all organizations within the NEO observation community• NASA has instituted communications procedures, including

direction with regard to public release of information• NASA notification procedures are set into motion only after the

necessary observations, analyses, and characterization efforts have taken place to determine that a space object indeed represents a credible threat– Depends on level of risk and urgency, may unfold for years after detection– Will entail various combinations of:

• Increased monitoring• Cross-checks of potentially hazardous trajectories as needed• Accelerated observations and orbit determination if potential hazard is

near term 5

US component to International Spaceguard Survey effortHas provided >98% of new detections of NEOs

Began with NASA commitment to House Committee on Science in May, 1998– Averaged ~$4M/year R&A funding since 2002– Budget increase submitted for FY2012

Scientific Objective: Discover 90% of NEOs larger than 1 kilometer in size within 10 years (1998 – 2008)

NASA Authorization Act of 2005 provided additional direction (but no additional funding) for “George E. Brown (GEB) Survey”“…plan, develop, and implement a Near-Earth Object Survey program to detect, track, catalogue, and characterize the physical characteristics of near-Earth objects equal to or greater than 140 meters in diameter in order to assess the threat of such near-Earth objects to the Earth. It shall be the goal of the Survey program to achieve 90 percent completion of its near-Earth object catalogue within 15 years [by 2020].

NEO Observation Program

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NASA’s NEO Search Program(Current Systems)

LINEAR

MIT/LL Soccoro, NM

Catalina SkySurvey

UofAZArizona & Australia

Minor Planet Center (MPC)• IAU sanctioned• Int’l observation database• Initial orbit determinationwww.cfa.harvard.edu/iau/mpc.htmlNEO Program Office @ JPL• Program

coordination • Precision orbit

determination • Automated

SENTRY www.neo.jpl.nasa.gov

Pan-STARRS-1

Uof HIHaleakula, Maui

NEO-WISE

JPLSun-synch LEO

7

Reached End of Mission1 Feb 2011

NEO-WISE Detections

8

This figure shows a top-downview of the objects detected by NEOWISE as of February 2011 (distances are given in AU).The outermost circle represents Jupiter's orbit; the interior circles represent the terrestrial planet orbits. Previously known NEOs are shown as green dots; new NEOs discovered by NEOWISE are shown as red dots; previously known comets observed by WISE are shown as cyan squares, and comets discovered by NEOWISE are shown as yellow squares. Allother objects, mostly main belt asteroids, are shown as black points.

NEO Detection (as of 01 Aug ‘11)

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PHA= Potentially Hazardous Asteroid

100

102

104

106

108

1010

910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031

10-1 102 105 108

100

102

104

106

108

0.01 0.1 1 10

Brown et al. 2002Constant power lawDiscovered to 7/21/102010

K-T

Impa

ctor

Tung

uska

Absolute Magnitude, H

Diameter, Km

N(<

H)

Impa

ct In

terv

al, y

ears

Impact Energy, MT

Population of NEAs by Size, Brightness, Impact Energy & Frequency (Harris 2006)

Num

bers

(pow

ers

of 1

0)

0.01 0.1 1 10

Assumes average density and 20 km/sec impact velocity

Hiroshima

Protected by Earth’s Atmosphere

10

Assumes average albedo of 0.14

100

102

104

106

108

1010

910111213141516171819202122232425262728293031

10-1 102 105 108

100

102

104

106

108

0.01 0.1 1 10

Brown et al. 2002Constant power lawDiscovered to 7/21/102010

K-T

Impa

ctor

Tung

uska

Absolute Magnitude, H

Diameter, Km

N(<

H)

Impa

ct In

terv

al, y

ears

Impact Energy, MT

Population of NEAs by Size, Brightness, Impact Energy & Frequency (Harris 2006)

140 m

50 m

1 km

~250,000

~20,000

~ 1,000

Num

bers

(pow

ers

of 1

0)

0.01 0.1 1 10

Assumes average density and 20 km/sec impact velocity

Hiroshima

Protected by Earth’s Atmosphere

11

Assumes average albedo of 0.14

NEO Detection

12

~90%

~45%

~10%

~1%

<<1%

Breakup Damage

NEO-WISE Detections

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2010 TK7 – First Earth Trojan Asteroid Discovered in NEO-WISE Collected Data

Continuing to mine NEO-WISE Data for Knowledge of NEOs

Close Approaches

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Close Approach of 2011 MD (~10 meters size) at 7,600 miles (~2 Earth radii)

Object Close-Approach Date(TDB)

YYYY-mmm-DD HH:MM ± D_HH:MM

Miss DistanceNominal (LD/AU)

Miss DistanceMinimum(LD/AU)

Vrelative(km/s)

Vinfinity(km/s)

Nsigma H

(mag)

       (2011 CQ1) 2011-Feb-04 19:38 ± < 00:01 0.03/0.00008 0.03/0.00008 9.69 5.17 4.1e+03 32.0       (2011 MD) 2011-Jun-27 17:00 ± < 00:01 0.05/0.00012 0.05/0.00012 6.70 1.48 6.93e+05 28.1       (2010 WA) 2010-Nov-17 03:44 ± < 00:01 0.1/0.0003 0.1/0.0003 13.07 12.26 1.82e+03 30.0       (2011 CF22) 2011-Feb-06 11:40 ±   01:14 0.1/0.0003 0.09/0.00023 19.61 19.10 20.7 30.9       (2010 TD54) 2010-Oct-12 10:49 ± < 00:01 0.1/0.0003 0.1/0.0003 17.54 17.09 4.4e+03 28.8       (2010 XB) 2010-Nov-30 18:05 ± < 00:01 0.1/0.0004 0.1/0.0004 19.94 19.55 1.11e+03 29.6       (2010 RK53) 2010-Sep-08 23:58 ±   00:01 0.2/0.0005 0.2/0.0005 8.81 8.16 312 27.9       (2010 RF12) 2010-Sep-08 21:12 ± < 00:01 0.2/0.0005 0.2/0.0005 6.00 5.10 1.01e+04 28.4       (2010 VP139) 2010-Nov-12 02:36 ± 1_10:51 0.2/0.0005 0.02/0.00006 9.44 8.89 3.59 29.2       (2011 GP28) 2011-Apr-06 19:36 ±   00:04 0.2/0.0006 0.2/0.0006 14.82 14.53 683 29.4       (2011 CA7) 2011-Feb-09 19:28 ±   00:02 0.3/0.0007 0.3/0.0007 9.33 8.90 340 30.3       (2010 UE) 2010-Oct-16 10:20 ±   00:26 0.3/0.0008 0.3/0.0007 17.40 17.20 60.8 29.6       (2011 AM37) 2011-Jan-11 11:46 ±   00:04 0.3/0.0009 0.3/0.0009 4.41 3.65 386 29.7       (2011 BW11) 2011-Jan-25 06:33 ± < 00:01 0.3/0.0009 0.3/0.0009 23.95 23.82 551 28.3       (2010 VN1) 2010-Nov-02 18:05 ± < 00:01 0.3/0.0009 0.3/0.0009 11.29 11.01 833 28.3       (2011 EY11) 2011-Mar-07 03:26 ± < 00:01 0.3/0.0009 0.3/0.0009 11.86 11.60 5e+03 28.6       (2010 TW54) 2010-Oct-09 00:40 ± < 00:01 0.4/0.0011 0.4/0.0011 8.07 7.76 1.24e+03 27.5       (2011 OD18) 2011-Jul-28 06:38 ±   10:34 0.5/0.0012 0.3/0.0009 9.27 9.02 18.2 26.3       (2010 XR) 2010-Nov-29 22:04 ±   01:18 0.5/0.0013 0.4/0.0011 19.60 19.49 20.2 26.9       (2011 GW9) 2011-Apr-06 04:53 ± < 00:01 0.5/0.0013 0.5/0.0013 11.36 11.18 1.32e+03 28.1       (2011 EM40) 2011-Mar-08 04:05 ± < 00:01 0.6/0.0016 0.6/0.0016 10.79 10.63 286 28.0       (2010 UY7) 2010-Oct-26 17:10 ± < 00:01 0.6/0.0016 0.6/0.0016 4.26 3.85 946 28.5       (2011 CA4) 2011-Jan-31 04:09 ±   00:03 0.6/0.0017 0.6/0.0016 6.00 5.73 507 27.0       (2010 RX30) 2010-Sep-08 09:51 ± < 00:01 0.6/0.0017 0.6/0.0017 10.00 9.83 4.84e+03 27.2       (2011 EN11) 2011-Mar-03 08:46 ± < 00:01 0.6/0.0017 0.6/0.0017 11.20 11.06 1.18e+03 27.9       (2010 SK13) 2010-Sep-30 15:59 ± < 00:01 0.7/0.0018 0.7/0.0018 18.63 18.55 2.32e+03 27.3       (2010 UJ7) 2010-Nov-02 02:36 ± < 00:01 0.7/0.0019 0.7/0.0019 9.38 9.23 4.02e+03 25.6       (2011 DU9) 2011-Feb-23 19:03 ± < 00:01 0.7/0.0019 0.7/0.0019 8.92 8.77 801 26.7       (2010 VC140) 2010-Nov-13 14:11 ± < 00:01 0.8/0.0019 0.8/0.0019 4.83 4.54 1.01e+03 27.9       (2011 AN52) 2011-Jan-17 23:19 ± < 00:01 0.8/0.0021 0.8/0.0021 15.93 15.85 504 28.5       (2011 EB74) 2011-Mar-16 21:49 ±   01:09 0.9/0.0022 0.6/0.0014 7.69 7.53 181 26.9       (2010 TN55) 2010-Oct-11 01:10 ±   00:02 0.9/0.0022 0.8/0.0022 25.45 25.40 187 27.0       (2009 BD) 2011-Jun-02 00:51 ± < 00:01 0.9/0.0023 0.9/0.0023 1.91 1.15 1.14e+06 28.3       (2011 JV10) 2011-May-05 17:13 ±   00:01 0.9/0.0023 0.9/0.0023 5.34 5.12 370 29.7       (2010 VR21) 2010-Nov-07 23:11 ± < 00:01 0.9/0.0024 0.9/0.0024 14.26 14.18 288 29.3       (2011 BY10) 2011-Jan-20 08:28 ±   00:01 0.9/0.0024 0.9/0.0024 7.84 7.69 434 27.3       (2010 TE55) 2010-Oct-17 01:26 ± < 00:01 1.0/0.0024 1.0/0.0024 3.40 3.07 1.87e+04 28.0

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NEO Threat Detection37 Close Approaches within Lunar Orbit Last 12 Months

Spaceguard Survey New Object NotificationCurrent Spaceguard Survey Infrastructure and Process

Survey,Detect,

& Report

Correlate, DetermineRough Orbit

PossibleNew PHO?

RoutineProcessing

PublishResults

Yes

PossibleImpact?

ResolveResult

DifferencesPublishResults

No

Precision Orbit and Follow Up Observations

Impact Still

Possible?

Observations andUpdate Orbit

Publish/UpdateResults

No

No

Yes

Yes

Iterate

Survey SystemsMinor Planet CenterJPL NEO Office*

* In parallel with NEODyS

RadarAlerts

• MPC PHO of interest

• MPC possible close approach

• JPL reports possible impact to NASA/HQ

• JPL publishes probability of impact

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NEO Threat NotificationUpon notification from NASA:Of impending NEO Threat to United States territory:• The Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) takes lead to

notify appropriate Federal, state and local authorities and emergency response institutions utilizing existing resources and mechanisms– When time/location of affected areas known, activate National Warning System– Analogous to large re-entering space debris and/or hurricane warning procedures– Post-impact event, analogous to other disaster emergency and relief efforts

Of NEO Threat beyond United States territory:• Recognizing vital role US efforts lead in NEO detection activities, US

Department of State facilitates international notifications in effort to minimize loss of human life and property– Bilaterally through diplomatic channels to potentially affected countries– To member nations of multilateral forums – UN entities (OOSA, COPUOS), NATO, etc– Post-impact event, convey offers of disaster relief and technical assistance

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2005 YU55 to Approach Earth Nov. 8, 2011

C-type asteroidDiameter ~400 metersEarth & Moon close approach

Extensive radar, visual and infrared observations are being planned.

Future Survey Capabilities

19

Large Synoptic Survey Telescope

6.4-m effective diameter 10 sq deg field of viewugrizy optical filters18,000 square degrees ++2x15s exposures + 2 more within 60 minutesSurvey entire visible sky every 3-4 days in 2 filters for 10 years

20

LSST Survey for NEOs

LSST Project modeling:

• Assumes H=22 at D=140m

• Uses model PHA population

• Uses LSST Operations Simulation (historical weather, seeing conditions, telescope properties)

• Simulate ‘observations’; require suitable for detection in MOPS

• In 10 years, normal cadence: LSST is ~80% complete at 140m

• In 12 years, NEO optimized: LSST reached ~90% complete D=140m

• 15% dedicated to NEO survey

NormalCadence

“NEO Optimized”Cadence

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Space SurveillanceTelescope

22

• DARPA funded project• Designed and built by MIT/LL

• Same division as LINEAR• Located Atom Peak, WSMR, NM • 3.6 meter primary mirror• First Light was Feb 2011• Started 1 year of checkout• Eventual operations by AFSPC• First of 3 to 4 worldwide sites• Serendipitous detection of

NEOs in background mode to space surveillance

“NEOStar” Concept

Spitzer Kepler

“NEOStar”

X

≈

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Potential NEO Mitigation/Deflection

• Essential first step is continued enhancement of efforts to detect NEOs– Identify potential impact hazards early– Provide as much advanced warning of impact threat to enable more mitigation options

• Potential roles and responsibilities for mitigation options are in early stages of development and not yet ready for implementation– Wide range of possible scenarios and challenges involved– Significantly more analysis and simulation needed to understand feasibility and effectiveness

of several approaches, and technical assessment of current technologies

• NASA to take lead to conduct foundational analysis and simulation, assessment of applicable technologies– Close coordination with DOD, FEMA, and other relevant departments and agencies– Possible simulated emergency response exercises to be led by FEMA– Outreach to relevant private-sector stakeholders to leverage related work– Important to engage other nations and multilateral forums to explore opportunities

for international cooperation, e.g. UNCOPUOS, European Union, ISECG

24

Efforts in Mitigation/Deflection Research

25

NASA Office of Chief Technologist –OCT

Space Technology Grand Challenges Open call for cutting-edge technological solutions that solve important space-related problems, radically improve existing capabilities or deliver new space capabilities altogether

1 of 12 areas of research:

Near-Earth Object Detection and Mitigation: Develop capabilities to detect and mitigate the risk of space objects that pose a catastrophic threat to Earth.