Planning for the Future

Nicety or Necessity?

PlanningA collaborative process to establish a mutually agreed upon plan that we are all committed to fulfill for the long term viability of our region.

How we make our dreams come true!

Or

KeysCollaborative» Everyone» Citizens» Professionals» Elected Officials» Military» And others

KeysMutually» Buy in» Input» Part of the process» No Dictates

KeysLong Term» Today» Tomorrow» Future Reality

Anchors» Military

USMC

USMC

AF

Army

Anchors» Military» Agriculture» Military Support» Tourism» Quality of Life» Climate» Recreational Opportunities

Today, same as tomorrow?

Economic Anchors

ProtectThe Anchors of the Future

Economic Anchors

How and Why?

Growth will OccurChange will Come

Onslow Today

2000 2010 2020

150,348

185,304

2.3% Average Yearly Growth

Onslow Today

2000 2010 2020

150,348

185,304

222,365Using

2% Average Yearly Growth

Caveats» Assumes same growth

2000-2007 was without the Growth Spurt

2010-2020 could see reduction in Force

» Assumes no out-migration

Growth Impact» Assume 2% Per Year» 37,061 Increase in population» 3.1 Average Family Size (City)» 11,955 Homes Needed» Assume 6 units per Acre» 1,993 Acres Needed» + 1,000 Acres for schools, roads,

businesses» 2,993 Acres needed for new

population

Growth Impact» Assume 4% Per Year» 74,122 Increase in population» 3.1 Average Family Size (City)» 23,910Homes Needed» Assume 6 units per Acre» 3,985 Acres Needed» + 1,000 Acres for schools, roads,

businesses» 4,985 Acres needed for new

population

Among the most productive agricultural lands in the State

NC’s Eastern Region

Reality Check8,600 Acres

Converted from Agriculture to Development

2002 – 2007(Onslow Farm and Forestry Study)

Onslow456,733 AcresWithout municipalities

»142,128 Acres Military»516 Acres NC State»43,590 Forest Acres»175,184 Acres Agricultural»95,313 Acres Developed

Land Use Plans»Must Protect the Bases»Agricultural Land Uses Protect the Bases»Decisions must Protect the Bases

Growth»Taxes …»Services …»Home Values

Onslow County»2010 Median House Value»$127,000

Taxes Produced

FY00 FY11City $8.2M $18.5

MCount

y$28M $69M

TaxNeutral

Equal to Services

NegativeLess than Services

PositiveMore than Services

Residential PropertiesCity of Jacksonville

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

2,640 6,920 1,945

To 100K To 200K To 300K 300K +

58%22%

Slide #26

3153%

16%

11,851 Parcels

Slide #26

Why Did Florida Grow?

Marketing

15 Dollars a Month15 Dollars Down

15 Years

1950’s & 1960’s Florida Land Sales

Abundant Land» 38,255,670 Acres Available

Great Climate» Mild Winters» No Snow» Reasonable Summer

Air Conditioning Mosquito Control

Political Climate» Friendly to Development» Progress Oriented» Tax Base Increase Sought» Land Sales» No State Income Tax

Quality of Life» Educational Facilities» Medical Facilities» Recreational Opportunities» Natural Resources

National News»Cuban Missile Crisis»Cuban Migration»Hurricanes»Disney World

October 1, 1971

Interstates» I-75» I-95» I-10» I-4

Airports»Miami»Tampa»Orlando»Ft

Myers

Southwest Florida International Airport

Midfield Terminal:» Opened 2005» $437 Million» 3 Concourses» 28 Gates» Designed for 10 Million Passengers a Year

Passengers

2000

5,207,212

2005

7,518,169

2006

7,643,217

2007

8,000,000

National Economy» Baby Boomers» Great Wealth» 2nd Homes» Investments

Baby Boomers» Silver-Haired Lining

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

16000000

17000000

18000000

19000000

20000000

Results: Florida Housing» 1002 Units per day 2000-

2006Housing Units

2006 8,533,419

2000 6,337,929

Increase

2,195,490

Results: SW Florida Housing» 124 New Units per Day

Housing Units

County 2006 % of State

2000 % Change

Collier 187,606 2.2% 102,973 83%

Lee 341,150 5.3% 188,599 81%

Charlotte 96,051 1.1%

63,86452%

Hendry 13,081 .1% 10,850 20%

637,888 7.5% 366,286 74%

Results: Lee County

Housing Units

Year Single Family Multiple Family Total Units

2005 10,469 7,393 17,862

2006 7,440 4,076 11,516

2007 2,357 1,664 4,021

Results: Collier County

Housing Units

Year Single Family Multiple Family Total Units

2005 3,028 1,638 4,666

2006 2,560 2,141 4,701

2007 1,159 1,037 2,196

National Housing Crisis

Results

ResultsLee & Collier

ForeclosuresHomes and Condos2008-2010

About 72,000Foreclosures

Results72,000 X 2.5 People Per Household

180,000Population Impact

Impact to the Tax Base

The FutureFlorida 2060

» Research Project 1000 Friends of

Florida Geo Planning Center

of University of Florida

Issues

Period 2005-2060

Starting Population 17,872,295

Ending Population 35,814,574

New Population 17,942,279

Acres Required 6,953,264

Issues2005 2060 Difference

Conservation10,254,19

410,254,19

4

Open Water 2,473,516 2,473,516

Urban Development

5,998,523 12,951,787

+ 6,953,264

Agriculture, Pristine Areas and

Other Undeveloped Lands

19,529,437

12,576,173

- 6,953,264

38,255,670

38,255,670

What Have We Learned?Reflections

Planning is not Enough

»1975 Comprehensive Planning Act»1983 Growth Management Act

1

Priorities Change as the Players Change

2

Commitment must be long term

3Common Vision4Education & Buy In Must be continuous5

Diversity is Essential6Make Room for All Goals7

An Out-of-balance Economy is bad8

»Too Hot»Too Cold

Anchors must be Protected9

By ActionsNot Planning