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Planning adaptation to climate change: Tourism community of Tulum 2030
Using future scenarios to assess local adaptation
Arnoldo Matus KramerD.Phil Candidate
26th of May 2010, Department of International Development, University of Oxford
Outline
1. Why using future scenarios in Tulum?
2. Methodological Approach
3. Findings 4. Final remarks
Why using future scenarios in Tulum?
• Information on climate change impacts
• Spatial expansion of the tourism industry
• Rapid pace of coastal urbanization
• Exponential growth of population in tourist communities
• Use of scenarios to assess adaptation options, priorities and barriers.
Climate Change Information and policy in Mexico
Four National Communications
• Fifth NC 2012
National Climate Change Strategy
• Special Climate Change Programme (2009-2012)
States Climate Change Action Programmes
• Quintana Roo
19971997 20012001 20062006 20072007 20092009 20122012
Fifth NC
IPCC FAR (2007)
Stern Report
Hurricane impacts in tourism communities
Hurricane Gilbert (1988)
24% hotels rooms damaged in Cancun.
Hurricane Wilma (2005)
Most costly natural disaster in history for the Mexican Insurance sector.
+$3,000 Millones USD.
Hurricane Dean (2007)
Total destruction of the cruiser port in Mahahual.
Cancun 1979-20071979
Population: 37,190 Urban sprawl: 2239 ha
2007
Population: 572,412 Urban sprawl: 18083 ha
Boom de la Riviera Maya
Playa del Carmen2000
Población: 55,000 habitantesUrbanización: 3780 ha
2008
Población: 135,108 habitantesUrbanización: 5863 ha
Two main models of tourism
Source: CEMDA
Source: Proyecto Marti
Tulum
2000
Población: 6,733 habitantesUrbanización: 605 ha
2008
Población: 19,913 habitantesUrbanización: 1217 ha
•New International Airport of the Riviera Maya by 2012•National strategy on tourism: 10th most visited country in 2010Top 5 by 2018
Key events:
Methodological Approach
Phase I Phase II Phase III
Mapping stakeholders and drivers of change Scenarios planning Deliberative workshop
Phase I: Mapping stakeholders and drivers of change
• Field season 1 (6 months)– In-depth interviews– Informal conversations– Passive observation of regional land-use planning
meetings– Collection of secondary data
Mapping Stakeholders
Primary stakeholders
Secondary stakeholders
External stakeholders
Local officials
Community leaders
Hotel owners and managers
State officials
National officials
Developers
Consultants
Leaders of NGOs
Academics
InternationalOrganisations
UNDP
IDB
ECLAC
Phase II: Scenarios planning
• Field season 2 (3.5 months)– Semi-structure interviews (20 interviews)– Informal conversations– Triangulation– Draft of storylines for two scenarios– Focus groups (2 sessions)– Briefing participants with methods and storylines
Phase III: Deliberative Workshop• One-day workshop to assess adaptation options and barriers (2030)– Introduction (methods, climate change information, and
storylines)– Stakeholders working in two groups with scenarios A and B
• Adaptation options, priorities and barriers for the periods: 2010-2015, 2020 and 2030
– Discussion– Results– Feedback
Key findings of using scenarios
Opportunity• Right participation• Key partners: – Local authorities in Tulum– National Institute of Ecology– UNDP
Challenge • Facilitate discussion• Time management• Financial and logistical
resources
Final Remarks
• Alternative to assess local climate change adaptation in a dynamic socioeconomic context
• From participant observer to action-oriented research
• More case studies needed
