Planning for avian flu disruptions on global operations a DMAIC case study

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    Planning for avian fludisruptions on global operations:

    a DMAIC case studySameer Kumar

    Department of Operations and Supply Chain Management,Opus College of Business, University of St. Thomas, Minneapolis,

    Minnesota, USA

    Abstract

    Purpose The author aims to assess the spread of avian flu, its impact on businesses operating inthe USA and overseas, and the measures required for corporate preparedness.

    Design/methodology/approach Six Sigma DMAIC process is used to analyze avian flus impactand how an epidemic could affect large US business operations worldwide. Wal-Mart and DellComputers were chosen as one specializes in retail and the other manufacturing.

    Findings The study identifies avian flu pandemic risks including failure modes on Wal-Mart andDell Computers global operations. It reveals the factors that reinforce avian-flu pandemics negativeimpact on company global supply chains. It also uncovers factors that balance avian-flu pandemicsimpact on their global supply chains.

    Research limitations/implications Avian flu and its irregularity affect the research outcomesbecause its spread could fluctuate based on so many factors that could come into play. Further, thepotential cost to manufacturers and other supply chain partners is relatively unknown. As a relativelynew phenomenon, quantitative data were not available to determine immediate costs.

    Social implications In this decade, the avian influenza H5N1 virus has killed millions of poultry inAsia, Europe and Africa. This flu strain can infect and kill humans who come into contact with this

    virus. An avian influenza H5N1 outbreak could lead to a devastating effect on global food supply,business services and business operations.

    Originality/value The study provides guidance on what global business operation managers cando to prepare for such events, as well as how avian flu progression to a pandemic can disrupt suchoperations. This study raises awareness about avian flus impact on businesses and humans and alsohighlights the need to create contingency plans for corporate preparedness to avoid incurring losses.

    Keywords Health and safety, Infection control, Six Sigma, PDCA, Quality management,Process management, Organizational effectiveness, Organizational change

    Paper type Case study

    IntroductionUS companies for many years have been outsourcing and developing supplier bases incountries with less expensive raw materials and labor to gain competitive advantages(Kumar et al., 2007; Kumar and Eickhoff, 2006). The drive towards ultimate costminimization has made supply chains vulnerable (Hoffman, 2006). There are manyconcerns for such vulnerabilities; one is infusing mass destruction weapons throughthe system via an unsuspecting companys supply chain into a country targeted byinternational terrorism (Kumar et al., 2008). Another could be an uncontrollablepandemic drastically affecting global supply chains (Ruquet, 2006). The potentialshort- and long-term damage to life and economic activity is incalculable (Rice and

    The current issue and full text archive of this journal is available at

    www.emeraldinsight.com/0952-6862.htm

    Planning foravian flu

    disruptions

    197

    Received 28 February 2010Revised 11 June 2010

    Accepted 19 July 2010

    International Journal of Health CareQuality AssuranceVol. 25 No. 3, 2012

    pp. 197-215q Emerald Group Publishing Limited

    0952-6862DOI 10.1108/09526861211210420

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    Figure 1.Avian flu spread stages

    and progression to apandemic

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    company revenue loss or restriction. Traditional plans start with an assumption thatthe marketplace is still viable; a potentially false assumption. Traditional plans aredesigned to get an organization back into their market as quickly as possible recovery time objective (RTO), recovery point objective (RPO) and maximum tolerable

    outage come to mind (MTO) (Sikich, 2005).From an economic viewpoint, evaluating an avian flu pandemic is essential for an

    entire business entity. Planning for business continuity needs to consider potentialfailures in basic public infrastructure as well as upstream and downstream supplychains (Dalton and Considine, 2006) as a business continuity plans goal is to preserveand protect an enterprises essential elements and maintain acceptable operationsthroughout a crisis and afterward, as the company recovers. It is always easier tominimize risk than to recover from a setback. The business continuity plan processbegins with identifying and managing risk (Rodetis, 1999).

    A research study on pandemic spread in Southeast Asia showed spatial spreadpatterns in Thailand the epidemic rapidly transforming from predominantly local tocountry-wide between 60 and 90 days (Ferguson et al., 2005). Therefore, an epidemiccould increase its hazard to a pandemic. Its spread should alert both government andbusiness entities to set up regulations, policies and procedures to prevent and controlthe catastrophe, which could happen (Knowledge@Wharton, 2006a).

    This study aims, therefore, to develop a decision framework using Six SigmaDMAIC process to analyze avian flus potential impact on large company globaloperations such as Wal-Mart and Dell Computers, whose market and supply base spanthe world. Specifically, our intent is to understand challenging operational issues toformulate business continuity plan for corporate preparedness in the event of anavian-flu pandemic:

    . Avian flu pandemic effects on businesses Wal-Mart and Dell Computers chosen for this study and the role various governments should play.

    .

    Avian flu pandemics risk, including failure modes on Wal-Mart and DellComputers global operations.

    . What sequence of factors reinforces avian-flus pandemic negative impact onWal-Mart and Dell Computers global operations?

    . What sequence balances an avian-flu pandemic impact on Wal-Mart and DellComputers global operations?

    . Appropriate guidelines on business continuity plans for corporate preparednessto mitigate trading and transportation security risks and failure modes inWal-Mart and Dell Computers global business operations.

    Analytical framework

    An avian flu pandemics impact on the two global supply chain operations (Wal-Martand Dell Computers) and the operational issues described earlier are analyzed usingbasic DMAIC an acronym for a Six Sigma problem-solving a method with similartraits to plan-do-check-act (PDCA) using define (supply chain process maps), measure(situation analyses), analyze (failure mode and effects analysis), closed-loop (influencediagrams), improve (future analysis), and control (future analysis). We conducted aliterature review to understand, define and measure the situation that a global businessoperation faces when it comes to virulent flu infections. A situation analysis, a tool

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    within the software package Decision Focusw (Focus Performance Systems, 2005),analyzes the complex situation down to cause and effect, as well as assigning priority:severity, urgency and growth to each. From there, a cause and effect analysis was doneon the top issue avian flu becomes pandemic. The next step was to analyze the

    causes identified and implement strategies to correct or mitigate those causes. Thesupply chain process maps were developed for Wal-Mart and Dell Computers globaloperations showing the stages where the staff involved (for both Wal-Mart and Dell ortheir trading partners) could be infected by an avian flu pandemic from the informationwe gathered. Subsequently, a detailed analysis was carried out using FMEA andclosed-loop influence diagrams for understanding the avian flus pandemic impact ontwo global operations. All five DMAIC phases for Wal-Mart and Dell Computers aresimultaneously discussed in detail. A failure mode and effect analysis and closed-loopinfluence diagrams illustrating avian flu pandemics impact on Wal-Mart and DellComputers supply chains are included in the DMAIC process analyze phase.

    Wal-Mart and Dell ComputersDefine phaseWal-Mart has contract manufacturers predominantly in Asia and a majority in China.Thousands of stock keeping units (SKUs) are delivered overseas from manufacturingto logistic company to the final destination US and European distribution centers.The company has many distribution centers with cross-docking arrangements thatsupport inventory supplies for short time periods. Since the avian flu began spreadingfrom China to Hong Kong, Canada and to Africa, Asia and Europe, World HealthOrganization (WHO) staff are concerned that this epidemic becomes a pandemic if nointernational policies are put in place. Figure 2 shows a high level Wal-Mart globalsupply chain and the stages where staff involved (Wal-Mart or its trading partners)could be infected with avian flu. Dell Computers built their success around a configure

    to order approach. Its major strength lies in sourcing from different parts of the world.Suppliers carry large parts and subassemblies inventory (buffer) in the US. DellComputers has suppliers for its components and subassemblies in Asia, Europe andNorth America. For example, RAM chips and CD-ROM drives come from Japanesesuppliers. Network cards, monitors and cooling fans are supplied by Taiwanesemanufacturers, while Singapore supplies SCSI cards and disk devices. Video cards andmicroprocessors come from Hong Kong, floppy drives from Malaysia and powersupplies from China. Soundcards are supplied by manufacturers in France andkeyboards come from Mexico. Dells major assembly plant is in Austin, Texas. Figure 3shows a high-level Dell Computers global supply chain and the stages where staff(Dells or its trading partners) could be infected with avian flu.

    Measure phaseThe second step is to measure the situation. In the define phase, we scoped shippingproducts from suppliers to consumers, but we did not define the risk, severity andemergency in each step. Thus, the measure phase, where the situation statement is theavian flu disruption in the supply chain process is measured, while related-key inputswill be all partners in each process flow (Figures 4 and 5). With limited proprietaryinformation, our approach is a situation analysis using Decision Focusw (FocusPerformance Systems, 2005) software on an avian flu disruption to Wal-Mart and Dell

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    Computers supply chain processes. This process is a tool to help solve issues that arebroad, complex, have multiple causes and effects that cannot be resolved with oneaction. In this process, one defines the situation statement on the issue or concern.Then, this issue is broken down into specific sub-issues in the surrounding separationboxes. From there a priority is set for each sub-issue as S, U and G as it relates to thesituation statement. The S is sub-issue seriousness (impact, cost, size, etc.); U isurgency (how fast is action required); and G is growth (sub-issue trend getting worse,better or staying the same). After setting priorities, the next step is to determinewhether each sub-issue is cause or an effect. The software highlights the top causes onwhich to focus. This helps narrow the action and identifies the highest prioritysub-issue(s). The 80/20 rule applies in which 20 percent of the sub-issues account for 80percent of the situation or problem. In using Decision Focusw tool on this issue, thetemplate was completed and the priority was set by a business analyst team.

    The situation analyses outcome for Wal-Mart and Dell Computers global operationsare shown in Figures 4 and 5 respectively. The avian flu supply chain disruptions topcauses seem to be that avian flu becomes pandemic (note that S, U and G are all ratedhigh). Decisions can then be made about what measures are needed to put in placebefore disruption. The first step is to institute mechanisms for an internationalcollaborative effort to contain a pandemic, developing and stockpiling vaccine,

    Figure 2.Wal-Mart global supplychain with avian flupandemic exposure atvarious stages

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    coordinated measures to quarantine affected people and implementing changes inWal-Mart and Dells global business operations. The improvement measures sectionprovides guidance to implement the proposed mechanisms. Moreover, this process alsorequires implementing health communication principles to the communities to ensurethat trust in the companys global business operations and federal, state and localgovernments is not lost when these entities actually deal with the pandemic. BothWal-Mart, Dell and their trading partners could preserve their value chains by takingthese actions for safety and preparedness reasons.

    Figure 3.Dells global supply chain

    with avian flu pandemicexposure at various stages

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    Figure 4.Wal-Mart supply chainsituation analysis

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    Figure 5.Dells supply chain

    situation analysis

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    Analyze phaseThe analyze phase uses a failure mode effect analysis (FMEA) to provide evidence thata failure to manage supply chain risk can have a significant negative impact onorganizations (Mitchell, 1995). Failure mode effect analysis identifies the failures wider

    consequences if risks are not managed effectively. These include not just financiallosses but also reducing product quality, damage to property and equipment, lostreputation in the customer and suppliers eyes, wider public and delivery delays. Thereis mounting evidence that economic, political and social, developments over the pastdecade appear to be increasing the supply chain disruption risk as supply chains getlonger and more complex involving more partners owing to the increase in globalsourcing (Hendricks and Singhal, 2005).

    We examine FMEA to determine the international shipping process steps involvedin Wal-Mart supply chains (Table I). The key process input in each shipping processstep lists people and material resources. Then, we define what, when and how thoseprocess steps affect supply chain process flow. For example, in the first process step,contract manufacturers are important. The key process inputs are employees, rawmaterial, etc. If people become infected by H5N1 then they cannot work. Humanresources in contract manufacturers side will be scarce. Moreover, avian flu can affectmanufacturers when vendor employees are afraid to come to work and decide to stayhome until they can be sure it is safe. This can create problems on the vendor side aswell. Thus, failure output/effects are contract manufacturers and Wal-Martsreputation, interrupted supplies and lost contracts with Wal-Mart. In an avian flupandemic, since there are products being shipped by overseas contract manufacturers,it can harm Wal-Mart customers safety. To reduce and control the potential effectsfrom an avian flu pandemic, contract manufacturers should work collaboratively withtheir governments and Wal-Mart, and also build an effective inventory trackingsystem.

    Similarly, Dell Computers (FMEA, Table I), could suffer from various issues such assupply disruption; its business success hinges on quickly assembling components andlow inventory. Disruption could raise its inventory, thus increasing costs. The otherissue Dell Computers can face is workforce disruption affecting its service level whilecustomers needs are not met, dissatisfaction grows leading to serious consequences forDell Computers revenues. An absent universal avian flu pandemic control policy maylead to a slower response, which could greatly affect Dells business operations.Additionally, as part of the analyze phase, closed loop influence diagrams are used toinvestigate avian flu pandemic impact on both Wal-Mart and Dell Computers globalsupply chains.

    Figures 6 and 7 show avian flu pandemics influence on Wal-Mart and DellComputers global supply chains. In these figures, the solid lines show positive

    correlation, while dashed lines show negative correlation between two businessfactors. Analyzing closed loop (R), we see that it reinforces the pandemics impact onthe system. In Wal-Marts case, Avian Flu pandemic increases Infected Population,which in turn increases Infected Staff in the Entire Wal-Mart Supply Chain. Thisreduces overseas and domestic contract manufactured goods and Wal-Marts sales.Subsequently, reduced Wal-Marts financial resources reduce its capability to providePreventive measures against Avian Flu, which further contributes to infected staff inthe entire Wal-Mart supply chain. In Dells case, customer satisfaction is included in

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    Processstep(what

    iskeyprocess

    step?)

    Keyprocessinput

    (whatisthekey

    processinput?)

    Potentialfailure

    mode

    (howdoes

    theke

    yinputfail?)

    Potentialfailure

    effects(whatare

    theoutputs/effects

    ofthefailure?)

    Severityto

    custo

    mer(how

    sever

    e,onascale

    1-10,

    istheeffect

    tothecustomer?

    Potentialcauses

    (whatcausesinput

    togowrong?)

    Controls(what

    controlsexistto

    preventfailure?)

    Suppliers

    Dell

    Computer

    compo

    nents

    Humanresource,

    rawmaterials

    Labor

    andraw

    mater

    ialarenot

    availa

    blein

    factor

    y

    Avianflu

    pandemicand

    supplier

    reputation;

    inventoryand

    backlogorder

    increases;raising

    suppliercost

    Custo

    mer

    dissatisfaction(10)

    Workforcesick

    fromavianflu,

    rawmaterial

    supplies

    interrupted

    Gove

    rnmentand

    WHO

    regulations,

    vaccine

    availability,

    collaborative

    effort

    Wal-Mart

    Contra

    ct

    manufacturers

    Suppliersand

    Wal-Mart

    reputation,

    interrupted

    supplies,

    lossof

    contractswith

    Wal-Mart

    Custo

    mer

    dissatisfaction(9)

    Internationallogistics

    Dell

    Third-party

    Computer

    componentsand

    subassemblies

    (Dell),

    Packaged

    products(Wal-

    Mart),

    human

    resource

    Comp

    uter

    componentand

    subas

    sembly

    (Dell),

    Packaged

    produ

    cts(Wal-

    Mart)

    not

    delive

    red,staffis

    notav

    ailable

    Lowreputation

    andfinancialsfor

    Dell

    Custo

    mer

    dissatisfaction(10)

    Sickstafffrom

    avianflu

    Logistical

    regulations,

    track

    ingsystem,

    gove

    rnmentand

    WHO

    regulations,

    vaccine

    availability,

    collaborative

    effort

    (continued)

    Table I.Shipping process failuremode effect analysis for

    Wal-Mart and DellComputers

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    Processstep(what

    iskeyprocess

    step?)

    Keyprocessinput

    (whatisthekey

    processinput?)

    Potentialfailure

    mode

    (howdoes

    theke

    yinputfail?)

    Potentialfailure

    effects(whatare

    theoutputs/effects

    ofthefailure?)

    Severityto

    custo

    mer(how

    sever

    e,onascale

    1-10,

    istheeffect

    tothecustomer?

    Potentialcauses

    (whatcausesinput

    togowrong?)

    Controls(what

    controlsexistto

    preventfailure?)

    Wal-Mart

    Third-partyand

    in-hou

    se

    Interrupted

    supplies,mistrust

    betweenshippers

    andWal-Mart

    Custo

    mer

    dissatisfaction(9)

    Customs/governmentagency/insurance

    Dell

    Workbacklog

    Custo

    mer

    dissatisfaction(10)

    Inter

    national,

    feder

    alandlocal

    gove

    rnment

    regulations

    Wal-Mart

    Interruptionof

    supplies,

    financial

    losses

    Custo

    mer

    dissatisfaction(9)

    Domesticlogistics

    Dell

    Third-party

    Lowreputation

    andfinancialsfor

    Dell

    Custo

    mer

    dissatisfaction(10)

    Logistical

    regulations,

    supp

    lier

    distribution

    syste

    m,

    inventory

    track

    ingsystem

    Wal-Mart

    In-hou

    se

    Interruptionof

    supplies,reduced

    inventory

    Custo

    mer

    dissatisfaction(9)

    (continued)

    Table I.

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    Processstep(what

    iskeyprocess

    step?)

    Keyprocessinput

    (whatisthekey

    processinput?)

    Potentialfailure

    mode

    (howdoes

    theke

    yinputfail?)

    Potentialfailure

    effects(whatare

    theoutputs/effects

    ofthefailure?)

    Severityto

    custo

    mer(how

    sever

    e,onascale

    1-10,

    istheeffect

    tothecustomer?

    Potentialcauses

    (whatcausesinput

    togowrong?)

    Controls(what

    controlsexistto

    preventfailure?)

    Distributionandwarehousing

    Dell

    Suppliers

    Wareh

    ouses

    Un-substitutable

    computer

    componentor

    subassemblyis

    missing,inventory

    andbacklogorder

    increase,raising

    suppliercosts

    Custo

    mer

    dissatisfaction(10)

    Wal-Mart

    Distribution

    centers

    Reduced

    inventory

    Custo

    mer

    dissatisfaction(9)

    Assembly

    Dell

    Plants

    Computer

    componentsand

    subassemblies,

    humanresource

    Comp

    uter

    componentor

    subas

    semblynot

    delive

    red,s

    taffnot

    availa

    ble

    Un-substitutable

    computer

    componentor

    subassemblyis

    missingleadingto

    inabilityto

    assemblefinal

    computer,low

    turnaroundtime

    andimpacton

    servicelevel

    system,nosales,

    customer

    dissatisfaction

    Custo

    mer

    dissatisfaction(10)

    Logistical

    regulations,

    chan

    gein

    comp

    anypolicy,

    Inventory

    track

    ingsystem

    (continued)

    Table I.

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    Processstep(what

    iskeyprocess

    step?)

    Keyprocessinput

    (whatisthekey

    processinput?)

    Potentialfailure

    mode

    (howdoes

    theke

    yinputfail?)

    Potentialfailure

    effects(whatare

    theoutputs/effects

    ofthefailure?)

    Severityto

    custo

    mer(how

    sever

    e,onascale

    1-10,

    istheeffect

    tothecustomer?

    Potentialcauses

    (whatcausesinput

    togowrong?)

    Controls(what

    controlsexistto

    preventfailure?)

    Retail

    Dell

    Retailers

    Packaged

    products,

    customers,human

    resource

    Produ

    ctcannotbe

    delive

    red,s

    taffnot

    availa

    ble

    Nosales,customer

    dissatisfaction

    Custo

    mer

    dissatisfaction(10)

    Staffand

    customerssick

    fromavianflu,

    pandemicpanic

    Wal-Mart

    Ownr

    etailoutlets

    Supplies

    interrupted,

    reducedinventory,

    increasedcosts

    owingto

    backordering,

    reducedsales

    Custo

    mer

    dissatisfaction(9)

    Customers

    Dell

    Corporate

    custom

    ers

    Nosales,customer

    dissatisfaction,

    andcompany

    reputation

    Custo

    mer

    dissatisfaction(10)

    Healthhazard

    control

    instructions,

    gove

    rnment

    regulations,

    vaccine

    availability

    Dell

    Direct

    individual

    custom

    ers

    Custo

    mer

    dissatisfaction(10)

    Wal-Mart

    Direct

    individual

    custom

    ers

    Custo

    mer

    dissatisfaction(9)

    Table I.

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    Figure 6.Closed loop influence

    diagram showing avianflu pandemics effect on

    Wall-Marts global supplychain

    Figure 7.Closed loop influence

    diagram showing AvianFlu pandemics effect on

    Dells global supply chain

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    the closed loop because it is crucially important to Dells business model and itssignificant impact. This reinforcing closed loop (R) should be taken-up seriously byWal-Mart and Dells senior managers as it can escalate to uncontrollable situation witha pandemics increasing impact on the supply chain. On the other hand, closed loop (B)

    helps balance the pandemics impact on Wal-Mart and Dell Computers supply chains.In both cases, higher level infected population needs WHO staff to initiate moreregulations, which lead to increased worldwide preventive measures against avian flu,which helps reduce infected populations.

    In global supply chain operations, companies are more susceptible to supplydisruptions, which may ultimately result in inventory shortage and fewer customers.Smaller inventory, sick US staff and fewer customers lead to falling sales. Inventoryshortage and a smaller customer base may occur owing to import and domestic supplydisruptions caused by an avian flu pandemic. Based on closed loop influence diagramsdescribed earlier in Figures 6 and 7, we now summarize how Wal-Mart and DellComputers global supply chains are affected by an Avian Flu pandemic. Wal-Martprocures finished SKU products mostly from Asia, largely from China and also smalleramounts from domestic suppliers. On the other hand, Dell procures components andsubassemblies mostly from Asia, largely from China, fewer from domestic suppliersand assembles computer systems in the US. Avian flu pandemic affects Wal-Mart andDell supply chains differently. In Wal-Marts case, supply disruption may result inreduced inventory for fewer SKU products thereby reducing sales. In Dells case,disrupted component and subassembly supplies may result in not being able to buildfinished computer, which will lose sales. Customer sales will be affected by fewer Delland Wal-Mart products and sick staff in the US may lead to customers switching tocompetitors. Avian flu pandemic also affects the customer base, having fewercustomers buying products from Wal-Mart and Dell.

    Improvements measures in Wal-Marts and Dells supply chainsManagers must pursue strategies to review and communicate risks for suppliers,employees and their families, and immediate contacts while integrating avian flustrategy with company health, safety and environment policy. Measures proposed forsupply chain improvements may include:

    . Constantly reviewing operational plans.

    . Carrying out vendor capability assessments.

    . Creating detailed preventive measures to adequately prepare a detailedoperational action plan in case of outbreaks.

    . Ensuring business continuity and planning to safeguard activities in the case of

    epidemic spread.. Drawing on good practices from other businesses, expert and official advice.. Sharing actions with others and offering mentoring.. Initiating education on prevention, understanding symptoms, contact risks, full

    personal and workplace preparedness for emergency action.. Planning employee communication chain roles.. Encouraging a trust and openness culture.

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    . Implementing a decisive response to individual cases avoiding stigma andmaintaining confidentially.

    . Building a strong public health culture in the workplace for all future healthrisks.

    . Ensuring that all managers and supervisors contribute to non-discriminatoryworkplace and external contact surveillance regarding symptoms, contact risks

    with sensitive and decisive response to outbreaks and risks.. Encouraging employees to be vigilant.

    Control measures for Wal-Marts and Dells supply chainsTo prevent spread when a worker is already infected, the proposed pandemicmanagement plan may include:

    . Monitoring staff to identify infected members.

    . Sending staff home once a pandemic case is identified.

    . Quarantining products and supplies.

    . Avoiding meetings and encouraging teleconferences.

    . Encouraging staff to be hygienic by washing hands and sterilizing work tools.

    . Limiting documents transfer such as invoice with fewer hands involved,considering electronic transfer.

    . Canceling meetings or shipments.

    . Encouraging vaccination among suppliers, distributors and staff.

    ConclusionsOur analysis shows sequential factors that reinforce or balance an avian flu pandemics

    impact on Wal-Mart and Dell Computers global supply chains. Such analyses areuseful for top managers wishing to develop strategic business continuity plans andcorporate preparedness for effectively responding to the major risk posed by apandemic on their supply chains. Companies with global operations should, as a matterof urgency, adopt and create business continuity plans to combat workforce loss andsupply chain disruption (Dalton and Considine, 2006; Knowledge@Wharton, 2006b;Rodetis, 1999). Managers also have to review their insurance policies to determinecoverage during a crisis. Supply chain managers must communicate and educatesuppliers and transporters about preparedness. Companies must keep supplierinformation and contact and help educate them on the need to adopt best practices toprotect their staff. Business organizations should not wait until an outbreak strikesbefore taking action since they might have little time to prepare and a pandemic could

    limit travel, disrupt supply chains and hit staff attendance, causing an overall businessslowdown. It is essential that staff are informed when and where cases occur, so theyknow where they can travel and what to avoid. Information should be shared viatelephone, e-mail and text message, or via the companys intranet. As part of thisprocess, managers must make sure they have up-to-date contact details for all theirstaff. The logistical challenges posed by a potential pandemic would be different fromthose posed by a terrorist attack. Traditional contingency planning revolves around ascenario in which a companys logistical infrastructure is taken out-of-action. In an

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    avian flu case, company corporate infrastructure would be in place, but manyemployees would be unwilling or unable to work or travel. So it is imperative to assesscontinuity plans for keeping the business going, such as whether staff can work fromremote locations. Effective collaboration is needed among governments, international

    organizations, businesses and other supply chain stakeholders.

    RecommendationsBusiness continuity plans and related costs are not easy to ascertain because historicaldata are not available and because the low experience curve associated with avian flu.As a relatively new phenomenon, quantitative data are not available to determineimmediate costs. Potential cost to vendors, manufacturers and other supply chainstakeholders is relatively unknown. This could be attributed to inexperience dealingwith a serious outbreak. System dynamics modeling is one way to quantify avian flupandemics impact on global supply chains. Avian flus nature and its unpredictabilityaffect research because many factors can come into play, which concerns any business

    manager. More research should be undertaken to study and understand avian flusimpact on human population and domestic and global business operations. Actuallyimplementing a proposed business model in Wal-Mart and Dell Computers operationsis a logical next step. The author plans to pursue this effort with company managers.Absent universal policy or regulations to control a pandemic could be problematic. Amajor problem is that different national policies hinder control measures. There is agreat need for collaboration among governments and organizations and alsoformulating integrated global policy and regulations to avert an avian flu pandemicspotential threat.

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    Corresponding authorSameer Kumar can be contacted at: [email protected]

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