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Planning For The Future Idaho Power’s 2006 Integrated Resource Plan

Planning For The Future Idaho Powers 2006 Integrated Resource Plan

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Page 1: Planning For The Future Idaho Powers 2006 Integrated Resource Plan

Planning For The Future

Idaho Power’s 2006 Integrated Resource Plan

Page 2: Planning For The Future Idaho Powers 2006 Integrated Resource Plan

2006 IRP Timeline

Idaho Power submits an Integrated Resource Plan to the Idaho and Oregon Commissions every two years

2006 IRP process began in September 2005 Submitted the 2006 IRP to the IPUC on September 29, 2006 Planning period extended from 10 to 20 years

• Align with the term of PURPA contracts

• Long lead times required for certain generation resources and transmission projects

Begin 2008 IRP process in May 2007 (June 2008 submittal)

Page 3: Planning For The Future Idaho Powers 2006 Integrated Resource Plan

IRP Planning Process

Forecast Future Needs Develop load, hydrologic and generation forecasts Determine average energy deficiencies (monthly) Determine capacity deficiencies (peak-hour) Determine Pacific Northwest transmission deficiencies (peak-

hour)

Page 4: Planning For The Future Idaho Powers 2006 Integrated Resource Plan

Forecast Load Growth (2006-2025)

Summer peak load growth continues to drive peaking needs• Firm summer peak load growth – 80 MW/year (2.1%)

• Firm winter peak load growth – 50 MW/year (1.6%)

• Average annual firm load growth – 40 aMW/year (1.9%)

Page 5: Planning For The Future Idaho Powers 2006 Integrated Resource Plan

Energy (Average Load) Surplus/Deficiency (2006-2025)

70th Percentile Water, 70th Percentile Average Load

-1,800

-1,600

-1,400

-1,200

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

aMW

Page 6: Planning For The Future Idaho Powers 2006 Integrated Resource Plan

Peak-Hour Load (Capacity)Surplus/Deficiency (2006-2025)

90th Percentile Water, 95th Percentile Peak Load

-1,800

-1,600

-1,400

-1,200

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MW

Page 7: Planning For The Future Idaho Powers 2006 Integrated Resource Plan

Monthly Peak-Hour NorthwestTransmission Deficiency (2006-2025)

90th Percentile Water, 95th Percentile Peak Load

-1,800

-1,600

-1,400

-1,200

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

MW

Page 8: Planning For The Future Idaho Powers 2006 Integrated Resource Plan

IRP Planning Process

Determine the Best Way to Meet Future Needs Estimate costs of supply-side resources and demand-side

measures Construct numerous portfolios containing both supply-side

resources and demand-side measures designed to meet average energy and capacity deficits

Determine the total cost of each initial portfolio Select 4 finalist portfolios for further qualitative and quantitative

risk analysis Select preferred portfolio

Page 9: Planning For The Future Idaho Powers 2006 Integrated Resource Plan

2006 Preferred Portfolio

Year Resource MW

2008 Wind (2005 RFP) 100

2009 Geothermal (2006 RFP) 50

2010 Combined Heat & Power 50

2012 Wind 150

2012 Transmission (McNary to Boise) 225

2013 Wyoming Pulverized Coal 250

2017 Regional IGCC Coal 250

2019 Transmission (Lolo to IPC) 60

2020 Combined Heat & Power 100

2021 Geothermal 50

2022 Geothermal 50

2023 INL Nuclear (PPA) 250

Page 10: Planning For The Future Idaho Powers 2006 Integrated Resource Plan

Coal-Fired Resource Update

Idaho Power and Avista Idaho Power and Avista have executed a MOU to study and analyze

the potential for developing one or more coal-fired generation facilities

Letters sent to project developers & mine owners on September 27th Initial Data submittals were due October 25th Currently analyzing and screening responses Expect to have initial screening completed 1st Qtr 2007

Page 11: Planning For The Future Idaho Powers 2006 Integrated Resource Plan

Near-Term Commitments

Assess level of CHP development and consider issuing RFP (IRP includes 50 MW in 2010)

McNary–Boise Transmission Upgrade – Study process initiated, expect to make commitments before filing 2008 IRP (2012 in service date anticipated)

Coal-based Resource – evaluation in progress, expect to make commitments to proceed with permitting and pre-construction activities before 2008 IRP is filed (2013 on-line date anticipated)

Page 12: Planning For The Future Idaho Powers 2006 Integrated Resource Plan

Closing Thoughts

Incorporate flexibility in the IRP to:

React to changing markets & regulatory conditions Incorporate PURPA resource development Acquire more or less of a specific resource depending

on RFP results