Planning for the Future

17/18 Enrollment Report

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Presented to the District on April 18, 2018

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sDiscussion Points

▪ Introductions

▪ Enrollment and Demographics (Part One)

▪ Key Things

▪ Maps: Planning Areas and Attendance Areas

▪ Sophisticated Forecast Model (SFM)

▪ Demographics

▪ Past Enrollment and Change

▪ Baseline Maps and Data

▪ Development (Part Two)

▪ Population, Development, and Enrollment Trends

▪ Yield Rate of Students

▪ Maps and Data

▪ Enrollment Projections (Part Three)

▪ Past, Current, Future Enrollment

▪ Building Projections

▪ Moving Forward (Part Four)

▪ Key Considerations

▪ Next Steps

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sAbout RSP

▪ Founded in 2003

▪ Professional educational planning firm

▪ Expertise in multiple disciplines

▪ Over 20 Years of planning experience

▪ Over 80 years of education experience

▪ Over 20 years of GIS experience

▪ Clients in Arkansas, Iowa, Illinois, Kansas,

Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North

Dakota, Oklahoma, and Wisconsin

▪ Projection accuracy of 97% or greater

Clay GuthmillerEducation Planner

Craig MenozziEducation Planner

David StoakesEducation Planner, EdD

Dave WilkersonEducation Planner, PhD

Tyler LinkGIS Analyst

Brandon SylvesterGIS Analyst

Grant LangPlanning Coordinator

Robert SchwarzCEO, AICP, REFP, CEFP

Educators

Planning

GIS Analyst

Our Clients

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sMaking it Happen

Development Community

▪ Builders

▪ Developers

Van Meter Community School District

▪ Administration

County & Others

▪ Dallas County

▪ Madison County

▪ United States Geological Survey

▪ Census Bureau/ Esri

Part One:Enrollment &

Demographics

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Key Things About the District

Enrollment:▪ Enrollment if forecasted to increase over the next five years

▪ Students Reside in the District - ES 124 students (+40.3%), MS 42 students (+27.5%),

HS 62 students (+34.3%), District 228 students (+35.5%)

▪ All Students Attending - - ES 138 students (+35.8%), MS 57 students (+29.7%), HS 65

students (+25.9%), District 260 students (+31.4%)

Capacity:

▪ There is potential for there to be elementary capacity challenges

▪ The student open enrollment policy will need to be evaluated to determine when or if

open enrollment will continue to be granted to students not residing in the district

boundary

Development:

▪ There are areas of land in the southern portion of the district that when developed as

subdivisions will increase enrollment

▪ Planned roads and other infrastructure (Water, Sewer) will result in significant

portions of the district to be developed – projections based on this happening

▪ Some infill development has happened and will continue to occur in the older, core

area

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District Boundary

▪ District Boundary (Purple Line)

▪ Major Streets

▪ Major water features & cultural features

▪ Municipality Limits

▪ Desoto (Green)

▪ Van Meter (Orange)

▪ Waukee (Purple)

▪ West Des Moines (Pink)

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Planning Areas▪ Land Use (Residential, Commercial, Industrial)

▪ Residential Density (Single-Family, Mobile Home, Duplex, Apartment)

▪ Natural Features (Rivers and Creeks)

▪ Manmade Features (Railroad and Streets)

▪ Attendance Area

▪ There are over 60 planning areas RSP monitors for

demographic, development, and enrollment data

sets

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Detailed Planning Areas

▪ Zoomed in view of Planning Areas (Green Line)

▪ Displays the power of GIS data & Information

▪ See where students are located (color dots) in relation to streets, subdivisions, and parcels

▪ Illustrates how the planning areas are tied to development types at the parcel level

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Sophisticated Forecast ModelThis is the central focus of everything RSP does. The model is based on what is happening

in a school district. The best data is statistically analyzed to provide an accurate

enrollment forecast. The District will be able to use RSP’s report and maps to better

understand demographic trends, school utilization, and the timing of construction projects.

Built-Out

Developing

Where:

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Population: Ages 0-4, 2022

▪ Depicted by Census Block Group with 2022 estimates

▪ Density weighted by land area of each Block Group

▪ Red areas have greatest density, Blue have the least

▪ This data helps benchmark the projection model choices for future student enrollment

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Population: Women 15-59, 2022

▪ Depicted by Census Block Group with 2022 estimates

▪ Density weighted by land area of each Block Group

▪ Red areas have greatest density, Blue have the least

▪ This data helps benchmark the projection model choices for future student enrollment

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Demographics

24.7%

Population2010-2017 Annual rate

Housing Development2010-2017 Annual Rate

IncomePer Capita; 2017-2022 Annual Rate

WorkforceHealth Care and Social Assistance

1.93%Increase

2.17%Increase

2.18%Increase

Source: US Census

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Demographic Comparison

Van Meter Community School District▪ Demographic attributes vary between the geographies shown in the table

▪ The vacancy rate in 2017 of about 9%

▪ The Average Per Capita Income has been increasing

▪ The Total Housing units is expected to increase from its current 1,369 in 2017 to 1,611 by 2022

Enrollment provided by the district;

Does not include Early Childhood, Home School, Private School, or Parochial School16

Past School Enrollment

Table Explanation:▪ This table includes both Reside and Open Enrollment students

▪ Largest class in 2017/18 – 2nd grade (72)

▪ Smallest class in 2017/18 – 9th grade (52)

▪ Graduating senior class similar to smaller than the incoming Kindergarten class

▪ Consistent enrollment increases experienced the last six years

Year K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Total Change

2000/01 32 35 49 49 34 43 33 44 45 36 38 38 31 507

2001/02 38 30 37 47 50 32 44 32 47 46 39 36 37 515 8

2002/03 42 36 33 37 48 50 32 45 31 45 37 39 36 511 -4

2003/04 33 44 38 35 40 53 45 37 42 30 46 33 36 512 1

2004/05 46 39 47 43 38 41 52 47 37 41 31 46 31 539 27

2005/06 55 48 36 58 43 41 47 52 49 40 38 26 45 578 39

2006/07 49 50 46 45 54 45 48 43 54 51 39 41 29 594 16

2007/08 51 42 54 44 46 56 47 46 46 56 54 40 39 621 27

2008/09 38 48 45 49 42 50 54 49 47 45 59 56 41 623 2

2009/10 37 37 47 44 53 38 47 55 50 46 45 58 54 611 -12

2010/11 35 40 41 52 45 55 40 50 59 54 46 49 58 624 13

2011/12 38 37 41 42 54 50 60 39 51 63 51 46 49 621 -3

2012/13 49 41 45 42 48 53 52 60 44 56 57 52 46 645 24

2013/14 41 52 40 51 43 51 52 52 59 43 59 56 53 652 7

2014/15 41 46 53 49 52 48 47 52 54 69 45 65 54 675 23

2015/16 59 47 49 63 55 58 51 49 55 61 70 48 63 728 53

2016/17 47 67 50 49 66 57 61 55 50 62 61 69 49 743 15

2017/18 70 61 72 56 57 70 69 65 58 52 64 68 67 829 86

Source: ISDE (2000/01 to 2012/13), Van Meter Community School District (2013/14 to 2017/18)

Enrollment By Grade

Enrollment provided by the district;

Does not include Early Childhood, Home School, Private School, or Parochial School17

Enrollment Change

What does this mean?– Change varies by grade

▪ This table includes both Reside and Open Enrollment students

▪ Largest average K-12 class increase – 5th to 6th grade (+6)

▪ Largest average K-12 class decrease – 11th to 12th grade (-1)

▪ Propensity to have varying cohort change in every grade – most likely increases

K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th Total

From To K 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th Change

2000/01 2001/02 6 -2 2 -2 1 -2 1 -1 3 1 3 -2 -1 8

2001/02 2002/03 4 -2 3 0 1 0 0 1 -1 -2 -9 0 0 -4

2002/03 2003/04 -9 2 2 2 3 5 -5 5 -3 -1 1 -4 -3 1

2003/04 2004/05 13 6 3 5 3 1 -1 2 0 -1 1 0 -2 27

2004/05 2005/06 9 2 -3 11 0 3 6 0 2 3 -3 -5 -1 39

2005/06 2006/07 -6 -5 -2 9 -4 2 7 -4 2 2 -1 3 3 16

2006/07 2007/08 2 -7 4 -2 1 2 2 -2 3 2 3 1 -2 27

2007/08 2008/09 -13 -3 3 -5 -2 4 -2 2 1 -1 3 2 1 2

2008/09 2009/10 -1 -1 -1 -1 4 -4 -3 1 1 -1 0 -1 -2 -12

2009/10 2010/11 -2 3 4 5 1 2 2 3 4 4 0 4 0 13

2010/11 2011/12 3 2 1 1 2 5 5 -1 1 4 -3 0 0 -3

2011/12 2012/13 11 3 8 1 6 -1 2 0 5 5 -6 1 0 24

2012/13 2013/14 -8 3 -1 6 1 3 -1 0 -1 -1 3 -1 1 7

2013/14 2014/15 0 5 1 9 1 5 -4 0 2 10 2 6 -2 23

2014/15 2015/16 18 6 3 10 6 6 3 2 3 7 1 3 -2 53

2015/16 2016/17 -12 8 3 0 3 2 3 4 1 7 0 -1 1 15

2016/17 2017/18 23 14 5 6 8 4 12 4 3 2 2 7 -2 86

3-Yr Avg 9.7 9.3 3.7 5.3 5.7 4.0 6.0 3.3 2.3 5.3 1.0 3.0 -1.0 51.3

3-Yr Weighted Avg 10.5 10.7 4.0 4.7 6.0 3.7 7.5 3.7 2.3 4.5 1.2 3.7 -1.0 56.8

Source: ISDE (2000/01 to 2012/13), Van Meter Community School District (2013/14 to 2017/18)

Change By Grade from the Previous Year

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Student In-Migration

▪ 2017/18 students who are in 1st through 12th grade

that were not attending the district in 2016/17 as

kindergarten through 11th grade

▪ 83 new students in 2017/18

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Student Out-Migration

▪ Students attending the district in 2016/17 who

were in kindergarten through 11th grade that did

not attend in 2017/18 as 1st through 12th graders

▪ 20 students left the district in 2017/18,

Total Migration +63

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Student Count Change▪ Depicts student movement at each Planning Area from 2013/14 to 2017/18

▪ Orange areas experienced an increase since 2013/14

▪ Green areas experienced a decrease since 2013/14

▪ White areas had no net change of students between 2013/14 to 2017/18

▪ New developments have a greater propensity to have more students in future years

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Student “Heat” Density

▪ Red areas depict highest density of students, Gray as lowest student density

▪ Overlapping points (2 or more students) are handled using a weighting of coincident points

▪ Newer developments and/or most affordable areas tend to have the greatest density

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Enrollment Conclusion

General Conclusions:

▪ Enrollment in the southern portion of the district will continue to increase as the new developments are built and younger aged households move there

▪ Enrollment tends to increase from grade to grade each year across all grades

▪ Enrollment increases have occurred in many of the older developed areas of the community (regeneration)

▪ Open enrollment results in about 23% of the total district enrollment

▪ District wide capacity is between 66.3% and 70.6% not including ancillary program space

Part Two:Development

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Population, Development, Enrollment

Graphic Explanation▪ Census data indicates the area has a increasing population

▪ Building trend indicates there has been steady new residential activity (20 to 50 units a year)

▪ Student enrollment growth has remained positive the last five years

What Does This Mean▪ The new households moving into the district may start having more children and/or school aged

children

▪ With development similar or increasing over the next five years than the previous 5 years there are

likely to be more new students

▪ Older areas of the community are in the subdivision life cycle of having greater children than in the

past

Source: Census Bureau, Dallas and Madison County, Van Meter Community School District and RSP SFM & Demographic Models

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Student Yield Rate

▪ More students live in single-family residential than multi-family residential

▪ Overall the district yield rate for single-family has increased since 2012, while multi-family has

remained the same since 2012

▪ The addition of newer housing inventory typically can increase the yield rate – type of housing must be

monitored

▪ Housing with the greatest affordability will result in higher student yield rates

Single Family (SF)

Multi-Family (MF)

Source: Van Meter Community School District , Dallas and Madison County

Source: Van Meter Community School District , Dallas and Madison County

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▪ Based on assessed Home Value as provided and maintained by the county assessor’s office

▪ Depicted by Median Value in each Planning Area

▪ Home values likely correlated to socioeconomic status – new areas tend to be the least affordable

▪ Areas shaded in Orange and Red have the greatest Median Home Value

▪ Areas shaded in Blue represent the greatest affordability

Median Home Value

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▪ Reveals the clusters of where residential development has occurred

▪ Some new areas do not necessarily lead to similar yield rates of like developments

▪ Colors of dots represent a specific year according to County Assessor’s Office

▪ This area is known as Crestview Estates

Residential Year Built

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▪ Identifies the current type of land use

▪ Illustrates where employment centers are located (Purple and Red)

▪ Yellow and Orange areas represent residential

Existing Land Use

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▪ Identifies where development activity is happening (Green)

▪ Identifies possible areas that could develop (Yellow and Purple)

▪ The market and property owner desire to build guides the timing of development

▪ Other properties not shown might develop while some shown might not develop

Growth Areas

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Development Conclusion

▪ Majority of new residential development will happen south of 360th Street (F-90), as well as some infill development in the older, core area of Van Meter

▪ The Van Meter community will likely have between 100 and 150 new single-family residential units built a year when infrastructure is in place south of the Raccoon River

▪ In order to increase the supply of affordable single-family homes, the city has a tax abatement which has resulted in significant activity in the Crestview Estates subdivision (Sliding Scale of 100%, 75%, 50%)

▪ Future residential development activity is dependent on the economy, specifically employment, interest rates, and home foreclosures

▪ Most of the available developable areas have minimal or no challenges with the flood-plain

▪ Tracking the types of development is important to understand the yield rate of students for every part of the community – there are varying yield rates with all developments

Part Three:Enrollment

Projections

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Past, Current, Future Enrollment

What Does This Mean?▪ The above enrollment totals are Kdg to 12th grade:

o Students Reside in the District - ES 124 students (+40.3%), MS 42 students (+27.5%), HS 62 students (+34.3%),

District 228 students (+35.5%)

o All Students Attending - - ES 138 students (+35.8%), MS 57 students (+29.7%), HS 65 students (+25.9%), District

260 students (+31.4%)

▪ Does not include Early Childhood, Home School, Private School, or Parochial School

Source: Census Estimates, Van Meter Community Schools Enrollment and RSP SFM & Demographic Models

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Boundary Enrollment Projections

School Ideal Maximum

Capacity Capacity 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23 2018/19 2019/20 2020/21 2021/22 2022/23

Van Meter Elementary

475 500 220 237 266 274 308 317 340 369 390 432 394 425 457 481 524

Grades K-5

Out of Disrict Elementary

58 52 65 62 78 77 85 88 91 92

Grades K-5

Van Meter Middle

MS and HS Capacity are same 122 113 121 126 153 169 171 165 179 195 213 215 213 228 249

Grades 6-8

Out of Disrict Middle

41 40 34 40 39 44 44 48 49 54

Grades 6-8

Van Meter High School

700 750 153 170 177 179 181 177 189 203 230 243 248 254 269 303 316

Grades 9-12

Out of District High School

58 63 65 62 70 71 65 66 73 73

Grades 9-12

ELEMENTARY TOTAL

475 500 278 289 331 336 386 394 425 457 481 524 394 425 457 481 524

Grades K-5

MIDDLE SCHOOL TOTAL

163 153 155 166 192 213 215 213 228 249 213 215 213 228 249

Grades 6-8

HIGH SCHOOL TOTAL

700 750 211 233 242 241 251 248 254 269 303 316 248 254 269 303 316

Grades 9-12

DISTRICT K -12 TOTALS

1,175 1,250 652 675 728 743 829 855 894 939 1,012 1,089 855 894 939 1,012 1,089

Grades K-12

ELEMENTARY RESIDE IN DISTRICT % 79.1% 82.0% 80.4% 81.5% 79.8% 80.5% 80.0% 80.7% 81.1% 82.4%

MIDDLE RESIDE IN DISTRICT % 74.8% 73.9% 78.1% 75.9% 79.7% 79.3% 79.5% 77.5% 78.5% 78.3%

HIGH RESIDE IN DISTRICT % 72.5% 73.0% 73.1% 74.3% 72.1% 71.4% 74.4% 75.5% 75.9% 76.9%

DISTRICT RESIDE % 75.9% 77.0% 77.5% 77.9% 77.4% 77.5% 78.3% 78.5% 79.0% 79.9%

Note 5: Middle and High School combined capacity since multiple spaces utilized by both middle and high school students

Note 1: Student Projections are based on the residence of the student and last school day counts provided by the district

Note 4: Open Enrollment students included in past and projected enrollment

Note 2: Past School enrollment is the current grade configuration (K-5, 6-8, 9-12)

Note 3: Ideal and Maximum Capacity of each facility provided by Administration

Exceed Ideal and Maximum Capacity

Past School Enrollment Future Enrollment By Student Residence Future Enrollment By Student Attendance

Source: RSP & Associates, LLC - April 2018 Exceed Ideal Capacity

Part Four:Moving Forward

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Key Considerations

The following items will assist in ensuring the district is able to advance its educational goals:

▪ Study the impact of future educational programming that will be integrated into the schools and

its relation to capacity and the type of educational space needed for students to continue to be

college and career successful

▪ Utilize the enrollment model to assist with planning for staffing need for the following school

year

▪ Type of residential development and how affordable it is will determine likely location and

number of students – new developments must be monitored in each city

▪ Annually review enrollment projections

▪ Determine the criteria to address capacity issues and timing for future school construction,

remodeling, or new attendance areas

▪ Continue to make decisions and communicate that information to the community so they can

understand how Van Meter is a learning community committed to ensuring educational equity

and excellence so the students of all races and backgrounds achieve high levels and graduate

prepared for success in college, careers and life in a divers and rapidly changing world

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Next Steps

Facility Master Plan

This process will allow the community opportunity to provide feedback for the district to

consider in building and programing decisions

Recommend follow the RSP ACE concept (Academics, Culture, Economics)

Open enrollment decision

Between 20% and 25% of enrollment resides outside of the district boundary

Decreasing the amount of open enrollment as new residential development happens could be an

option to consider how to manage potential capacity challenges at the elementary

New Facility Location

Determine criteria to determine how the best location is chosen

Determine the ideal grade configuration at both the existing site and new site

Open enrollment decision could impact the timing of when new capacity is needed

How quickly residential development happens will impact the timing of additional capacity

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Notes