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1
Planning for the Threat
Southern New England
Hurricane Evacuation Study
Paul Morey
Earthquake/Hurricane
Program Manager
FEMA Region I - Boston
Evacuation and
Planning Factors
Source: NOAA/NWS
Hatteras is too late!
Begin protective actions
Large wind field
Extreme forward speed
Decreased evacuation
decision time
Forecast Uncertainty
Evacuation and Protective
Actions
Widespread Wind, flood and Surge Event!
Goal: To provide emergency management officials
sound data that will inform them in hurricane
evacuation planning and decision-making
3
Roles and Responsibilities
4
• Coordination • Subject Matter Expertise • Training
• Project Management • Training • Tech Support •Subject Matter Expertise
• SLOSH Basin Development • Tech Support •Training •Subject Matter Expertise
Local Hurricane
Plans
State Evac and Support plans
Regional Ops and Support
plans
National Planning and
Ops
HES
5
Hurricane Evacuation Studies (HES) H
azar
ds
An
alys
is
• SLOSH Model Development
• Surge MOMS
• Surge Maps
• Evacuation Zones
Vu
lner
abili
ty A
nal
ysis
• Identify at risk
• Populations
• Infrastructure
• Critical Facilities
• Local Planning Data
Beh
avio
ral A
nal
ysis
• Public Survey
• Analysis of Survey Responses
• Results for Input into Shelter and Trans Analysis
Shel
ter
An
alys
is
• Determining the Shelter Need
• Estimate Number of Shelter Spaces
• Potential Vulnerability
• Shelter Need or Shelter Deficit
Tran
spo
rtat
ion
An
alys
is
• Analysis of Traffic Volumes, Evac Routes, and Destinations
• Traffic Patterns
• Evacuation Clearance Times
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1-2 2 3-5 Shadow
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of R
esp
on
se
s
Evacuation Zone
A Overall With Order
6
Hazards Analysis Understanding Storm Surge Potential
• Storm surge has the highest
potential for death and damage
• Storm surge is the main reason
we evacuate the coast
• Hurricane Evacuation Studies
utilize SLOSH for storm surge
estimation
Hurricane Ike Damage, TX. Photo: FEMA Analysis: Hazard Vulnerability Behavioral Shelter Transportation Products: Surge Maps Evacuation Zones Planning Data Clearance times
7
Storm Surge Atlas Providing a picture of the maximum storm surge vulnerability
Analysis: Hazard Vulnerability Behavioral Shelter Transportation Products: Surge Maps Evacuation Zones Planning Data Clearance times
8
Evacuation Zones How does an Emergency Manager communicate storm surge risk to
the public?
Analysis: Hazard Vulnerability Behavioral Shelter Transportation Products: Surge Maps Evacuation Zones Planning Data Clearance times
NYC Directional Atlas
NYC Hurricane Evacuation Zones
11
Vulnerability Analysis Helping coastal decision makers identify risk and populations that
may need to evacuate
• Citizens residing in surge
prone areas
• Critical facilities
• Mobile/Manufactured
home communities
• Vulnerable Shelters
• Roadway network,
bridges, critical facilities
• Other areas to be
considered?
Identifies who/what will be affected?
Analysis: Hazard Vulnerability Behavioral Shelter Transportation
Products: Surge Maps Evacuation Zones Planning Data Clearance times
Hurricane Behavioral Analysis
Analysis: Hazard Vulnerability Behavioral Shelter Transportation
Products: Surge Maps Evacuation Zones Planning Data Clearance times
SOURCES OF INFORMATION
U. S. CENSUS
Population Size
Demographics
Household
Composition
Home Tenancy
Language
Vehicles
BEHAVIORAL STUDY
Attitudes About Risk
Hurricane Experience
Sources of Information
Evacuation Decision Process
Evacuation Intent
Transportation Needs
Evacuation Destination
Evacuation Route
Return Expectations
Analysis: Hazard Vulnerability Behavioral Shelter Transportation
Products: Surge Maps Evacuation Zones Planning Data Clearance times
Some Key Findings
Serious under-concern about surge
Evacuation intent over-stated
Evacuation intent highest (and better predictor of actual behavior) For major storms
For mandatory or ordered evacuations
For households with children
With recent real hurricane experience
Often get “False Experience” effect Earl/Irene/Sandy?
Analysis: Hazard Vulnerability Behavioral Shelter Transportation
Products: Surge Maps Evacuation Zones Planning Data Clearance times
15
Shelter Analysis Understanding Shelter Need
Key Sheltering Issues:
• Location/Identification
• Capacity
• Response Rates
• ARC vs. Local Shelter
• Pet Friendly
Analysis: Hazard Vulnerability Behavioral Shelter Transportation
Products: Surge Maps Evacuation Zones Planning Data Clearance times
Inputs
Demographics
Behavioral
Assumptions
Evacuation Routes
Levels of Service
(Roadway Capacities)
Travel Destinations
Evacuation Scenarios
16
Transportation Analysis The Transportation Analysis utilizes data produced by the other
analysis to determine traffic congestion and clearance times
Analysis: Hazard Vulnerability Behavioral Shelter Transportation
Products: Surge Maps Evacuation Zones Planning Data Clearance times
17
Transportation Analysis Helping coastal decision makers understand traffic congestion
potential based upon evacuation decisions
Products of the Transportation
Analysis
• Traffic Patterns (bottle necks)
• Evacuating Vehicles
• Clearance Time tables
• Variables of:
• Response
• Population
• Evacuation Scenarios
(one way, Multi state)
Analysis: Hazard Vulnerability Behavioral Shelter Transportation
Products: Surge Maps Evacuation Zones Planning Data Clearance times
Clearance Time = 48hrs
Mobilization Time
Travel Time
Queuing Delay Time (traffic)
Evacuation Decision Time
L= -48 L=0 L= -36 L= -24 L= -18 L= -12 L= -6 L=+6 L=+12 L=+18 L=+26
Hazards
Forecasted Landfall of TS winds or Hazards
Analysis: Hazard Vulnerability Behavioral Shelter Transportation Products: Surge Maps Evacuation Zones Planning Data Clearance times
Evacuation Clearance Times Timeline
HES in HURREVAC
19
20
• Hazards Analysis
• Vulnerability Analysis
• Behavioral Surveys
• Shelter Analysis
• Transportation Analysis
Technical Data Reports – Paper and ITDR Detailed reports of the following analyses:
Analysis: Hazard Vulnerability Behavioral Shelter Transportation Products: Surge Maps Evacuation Zones Planning Data Clearance times
21
• Decision Assistance Tool
• Overlay with Evacuation
Zones
• Better Communication with
the Public
• Easier Surge Product for
EM’s to Use
New Experimental Storm Surge Inundation
Graphic
Analysis: Hazard Vulnerability Behavioral Shelter Transportation Products: Surge Maps Evacuation Zones Planning Data Clearance times
22
• Surge Inundation Maps:
Complete and delivered to CT,
RI and MA.
• Evacuation Zones: Complete
for RI, draft maps delivered to
MA and CT. Awaiting edits by
local EM’s.
• Behavioral Analysis:
Complete for CT, RI and MA.
Awaiting final reports.
• Shelter Analysis: Underway in
CT, RI and MA.
• Vulnerability Analysis:
Underway in CT, RI and MA.
• Transportation Analysis:
Underway in CT, RI and MA.
Status of SNE HES – Complete and delivered by July 1, 2014
Analysis: Hazard Vulnerability Behavioral Shelter Transportation Products: Surge Maps Evacuation Zones Planning Data Clearance times
FEMA Region I Earthquake
Program
Paul Morey
Earthquake/Hurricane Program Manager
FEMA Region I - Boston
Photos courtesy of USGS and the Weston Observatory
The Risk is Real!
National risk
Regional risk
Local risk
Photos courtesy of USGS and Tufts University
1638 Central New Hampshire – 6.5-
7.0
1755 Offshore Cape Ann – 6.0 – 7.0
1869 Eastern ME – 5.7
1940 Ossipee NH – 5.5
Photos courtesy of USGS and the Weston Observatory
Old port cities like Boston built on fill
Christchurch, New Zealand
Boston then….and now…
Photos courtesy of Tufts University and CNN
Aging infrastructure
URM Fire and Police Stations
URM Schools
Port/Industrial Facilities
Winter Weather
Urban Conflagration Secondary Effects
Tourist Population/Sheltering Photos courtesy of CNN and Boston Globe
NEHRP – National Earthquake Hazards Reduction Program
• Four agency partnership
• Work encompasses research, development, and implementation
activities
• Implementation activities are conducted primarily by FEMA
• Model building code standards
• Mitigation training and state/local support
• Publications – Seismic rehabilitation
• Outreach, technical assistance, ShakeOut, Hazus, Tsunami
Addressing the Risk
The Earthquake Program in FEMA Region I
• Strong partnerships
• State and local EM’s and planners
• NESEC Executive Director and Board
• State Geologists
• Academia (BC, Tufts, UMASS, Northeastern…)
• State and local building officials
• Hospitals
• Private sector (Nedrix)
Photos courtesy of FEMA and AP
Addressing the Risk
The Earthquake Program in FEMA Region I
Examples of NETAP training:
• FEMA 154 Rapid Visual Screening of
Buildings for Potential Seismic
Hazards combined with ATC 20 Post
earthquake Safety Evaluation of
Buildings
• E-74 Reducing the Risks of
Nonstructural Earthquake Damage
• FEMA P-767 Earthquake Mitigation
for Hospitals
Hazus Analysis of 11 Scenario Earthquakes in New England
• Working group members from federal
and state agencies, academia and the
private sector.
• Utilized FEMA’s Hazus loss estimation
software combined with USGS
ShakeMaps as the hazard input.
• Summary packets with various loss
estimation data such as building,
critical facility, and transportation
system damage.
State Support to Maine and Vermont
• Vermont seismic hazard mapping and
NETAP outreach to critical facility owners.
• Maine inventory of critical facilities using
FEMA 154 methodology entered into Hazus.
Photos courtesy of USGS and VT ANR
The Great Northeast ShakeOut
• Over 300,000 registered participants in 2013!
• Already over 52,000 signed up for 2014.
• Drill will be held October 16th at 10:16AM.
• Sign up at www.shakeout.org/northeast
Questions?
Photos courtesy of USGS, FEMA and the AP