Platou Monthly

RS Platou Monthly November 2013

Monthly year‐on‐year growth, tanker fleet Analytical topic of the month:

Page 2

Analyses and comments………………………….. 2

World economy and world shipping ……….. 3

Newbuilding ……………………………………………. 4Monthly year‐on‐year growth, dry bulk fleet

Tankers | Freight market……………………….. 5

Tankers | Sale and purchase………………….. 6

Bulk carriers | Freight market………………… 7

Bulk carriers | Sale and purchase ………….. 8

Cellular container ships …………………………… 9

LNG carriers…………………………………………

Representative newbuilding contracts…

Representative second hand sales……….

Contact list…………………………………………..

RS Platou Economic Research AS P.O. Box 1604 Vika Tel.: +47 23 11 20 00 [email protected] | Oslo Haakon VII's gate 10 Fax: +47 23 11 23 00 www.platou.com

N‐0119 Oslo, Norway

Tanker market;

Not the new normal

but definitely in from

the cold

11

12

14

10

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Percent

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13

Percent


Analyses and comments

RS Platou Economic Research ASShipbroking | Oslo 2

The spike in VLCC rates over the past month is driven by a

mixture of fundamental, seasonal and psychological factors.

While rate levels of more than $50,000 per day are

unsustainable, we believe the upswing confirms that the

market is not structurally imbalanced and that the cycle now is

turning.

The tanker market, like most other shipping markets, has a long

history of sudden and dramatic changes. Usually, such abrupt

swings can be explained by observable events like increases in

oil production or the impact of weather and/or politics on

trading patterns. This time around, however, none of the above

applies and the question is; how could a market go from

supposedly “severely overtonnaged” to booming in a fortnight

if nothing fundamentally has changed?

Let’s start by challenging the issue of overcapacity. As was

thoroughly discussed in last month’s issue, we estimate that

overcapacity is a relatively moderate 8 percent when taking

economic factors, which put real constraints on fleet

productivity, into consideration. The starting point for a market

recovery was thus not hopeless, in other words.

When looking at the fundamentals it is important to

understand that 2013 is a year of two very distinct halves. The

first half was dominated by declining seaborne trade of 3

percent and rising fleet capacity of 5 percent. The result was a

fall in capacity utilization to the low 80s percent and average

VLCC rates of 10,000‐$15,000 per day.

The second half is very different, most importantly because of a

marked recovery in the oil trade. That, at least, should not

come as a surprise. While the US is being blamed for

contracting global oil imports, the real problem early in the

year was a contra‐cyclical decline in Asian imports as China

destocked. The second half is seeing a reversal of this trend

and Asian imports are up 4 percent y‐y in the past four months.

In addition, trading distances are lengthening as imports from

the Atlantic Basin to Asia are increasing and, note this, the

same goes for Middle East Gulf exports to the West, thanks to

rising US demand and to European refiners needing to replace

lost Libyan barrels.

A more surprising contributor to market tightness is an

unexpectedly sharp slowdown in fleet growth. Newbuilding

deliveries are behind schedule and fleet growth has come

down from more than 6 percent at the start of the year to 3

percent in November. Fleet utilization is thus off its lows but

the very low starting point meant that early improvements

went “under the radar”. That is until the seasonal pick up in oil

demand exposed charterers to a shortage of tonnage and

created a predictable “fixing frenzy”, common at market turns.

What now? While we for some time have believed that 2013

would be the low point for the tanker market we have not

been expecting 2014 to be a significantly better year because

fundamentals are expected to recover slowly. If that is the

case, rates should come down relatively quickly in Q1, as

seasonal and psychological support factors moderate.

The two main uncertainties are oil demand and newbuilding

deliveries. Recently, demand data has been beating

expectations and that, combined with the still fragile

geopolitical situation in the Middle East, argues for no change

in OPEC policy when the group meets later this week, an

outcome which should cushion the expected Q1 downturn in

rates.

Fleet capacity growth should continue to slow, although there

is a risk that the overhang of 2013 non‐deliveries could appear

in 2014. On the other hand, questions remain over parts of the

orderbook at Chinese yards.

In short, the road is not all clear yet but the market collapse

which took place in the first half of this year should not repeat.

Sharply lower fleet growth is expected to support a moderate

cyclical market recovery over the next two years. A

continuation into 2016 and beyond will to a large extent

depend on the ordering behavior of owners themselves.

Ole‐Rikard Hammer

Head of Research

RS Platou Economic Research

Tanker market; Not the new normal but definitely in from the cold


World economy and world shipping

World economy ‐ YoY change in % Forecasts for world GDP, monthly revisions YoY change in %GDP growthUSEuro areaChinaJapanIndiaWorldWorld tradeVarious sources ( ) previous month, if changed

World merchant fleet ‐ YoY change in %

Tonnage demandFleet growthUtilization rate Seaborne trade YoY change in %

Market indicators ‐ YoY change in %Seaborne trade*OilDry bulkOil

Oil consumption WorldUS

ChinaCrude imports US

ChinaDry bulkChina imports Total

Iron oreSteel production China Exchange rate USD/EUR

USContainerUS imports

Commodity prices, end of month

Brent oil ‐ spot USD/bbl

Bunkers ‐ Singapore USD/t

Indian iron ore USD/t

Steam coal USD/t

Steel ‐ HRC B. Sea USD/t

* For details on sources and methods, visi


November was another month of «buying the rumor» and “selling

the fact» for the world economy. In other words, while the hard

data again largely was on the disappointing side, investors

continued to see the world in a positive light with Central Banks in

control. Both the Eurozone and Japanese economies slowed

significantly during the third quarter. In Europe, growth slumped

across the board, except for the UK, from +1.1% in Q2 to +0.4% in

Q3, while remaining in negative territory on a year‐to‐year

comparison. In Japan growth dropped from 3.8% to 1.9% as

exports and consumer spending slowed. On the bright side, the US

economy accelerated from 2.5% to 2.8% in Q3. More importantly,

monthly data releases in November have continued to beat

expectations thus defying fears that the government shutdown in

October would be a significant blow to the economy.

Oct 2013

(1.6)

111.0 111.8

4.9

5.9

3.6‐1.3‐11.5

3.8‐16.1

5.83.6

2.8

83.77.3

7.41.7

2013F

2.61.7

1.9

3.1

8.3

2013‐10m

2012

Sep 2013

2Q2013 3Q2013 2013‐9m

5.8

‐13.8Sep 2013

5.23.3

‐0.4‐0.6

(2.0)(7.6)

4.9

Oct 2013

‐1.7

1.94.8

535.0

130.5

www.platou.com/dnn_site/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=CodSYdx5lSM%3d&tabid=536

1.5

6.5

2013‐10m5.8

‐0.25.2

2013‐10m

‐14.6

13.810.3

27.9

23.314.8116.3

5.5

515.0

609.0

4.9

83.9

‐2.3 0.5

107.7

(2.7)

2.9

1.31.3

3.7

540.0

619.0

82.883.3 80.6117.5 135.5

2012 2013 2014

7.77.81.0

3.785.3

5.3

(5.9)

2014F

2.92.7

(‐0.3)

Nov 2013

25.321.19.28.7

597.0

Sep 2013 Oct 2013

4.1

Nov 2012

‐2.8

4.2

Oct 2013

2.75

3.00

3.25

3.50

3.75

4.00

Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013 Jul 2013

2012 2013 2014

‐20

‐10

0

10

20

30

40

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Dry bulk Oil

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14


Newbuilding

Newbuilding prices in mill USD Building prices for tankers Mill USD

VLCCSuezmaxAframaxMR CleanCapesizeKamsarmaxUltramax (from Jan 2013)

* Tankers from Korean yards, bulk carriers from Chinese yards

Order book in no. / mill dwt

VLCCSuezmaxAframaxSmaller Building prices for bulk carriers Mill USDTotalCapesizePost PanamaxPan./KamsarmaxHandy/SupramaxHandysizeTotal

New orders in no. / mill dwt

VLCCSuezmaxAframaxSmallerTotal Exchange rates Left: CNY/USD | Right: JPY/USDCapesizePost PanamaxPan./KamsarmaxHandy/SupramaxHandysizeTotal

* For tonnage definitions, visit www.platou.com/dnn_site/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=CodSYdx5lSM%3d&tabid=536


222

3.9

4

305

56

584

123

7.6

43.8

94

7.5

279

20125.3

6.4

29.4

8.7

6.0 0

9

16

63.2

26

7

11.9 6.0

29

35

17

311

0.4

51

631

24

1.3

1920.1

142015+

4.414.5

50/51

45

1.412.1

20.0

1.2

286.6

18.0

15.1

Nov 20132013 YTD

296

59/60

0.0

18

0.00.20.7

201426

3.424.3

45/4632

23.3

5.8348

36382

Oct 2013 Nov 2013

50/51

8957 59/60

0.1

November has been a relatively active month with more than 20

VLCC newbuildings concluded or in the pipeline of being

concluded, while buyers with existing contracts have been active

in exercising their options. Apart from the VLCCs, the activity in

the dry, clean and gas sectors remains fairly strong.

4

Tank * 9

51182

28/2926/27

Bulk*

35

35

93/9493/94

5.6131

18.6

256

389

13

Dec 2012

150

8.2

0.0

6.4

15

6

59

Bulk *

Total Rest 2013

Tank*

3

27

99

Some representative fixtures:

Bank of Communication have ordered five 9,200teu container

vessels at Samsung Heavy Industries, while Minsheng Financial

Leasing have contracted two, all against a long‐term charter to

CMA CGM.

19

2390

39

198

135179

2.5

1527

94

3

1.93.9

109.8182

9.331

16211.3

3.2

4.2

4.6

4625

26 5.10.7

7.6

19.8

18.747.2

0.8

516

4.3

23.1

12

237

0.6 1.8

49.6 49.8

0.6

51/52

1.40.4

0

2.44.4

10.5

771

21.721

5699

0.9

0.7

Tank *

2

Bulk *

0

19

5.88.4

7.7

194

216

88

0.9

44.0

152

16.444

4

11.7

200

0.7

1314

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

VLCC Suezmax Aframax MR Clean

0

25

50

75

100

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Capesize Kamsarmax/Panamax Supramax

60

80

100

120

140

6

7

8

9

10

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

CNY/USD JPY/USD


Tankers | Freight market

Average freight rates in 1,000 USD/day Weekly spot rates for crude carriers# 1,000 USD/day

VLCCSuezmaxAframaxLR2 CleanLR1 CleanMR CleanVLCCSuezmaxAframaxLR2 CleanLR1 CleanMR Clean

For weekly freight rates, visit www.platou.com/dnn_site/EconomicResearch/WeeklyFreightRates.aspx

Weekly spot rates for clean carriers# 1,000 USD/day

Tanker fleet development in mill dwt *

VLCCSuezmaxAframaxSmallerTotal tanker fleet* For tonnage definitions, visit www.platou.com/dnn_site/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=CodSYdx5lSM%3d&tabid=536

Oil market in mill bpd

OECDNon‐OECD Middle East oil production (monthly) Mill bpdWorld demandMiddle EastAfricaLatin AmericaNorth AmericaWestern EuropeAsiaFSUOthersWorld supply

World seaborne oil trade


45.9

10.5

13.7

10.7

1.7

2013 YTD190.4

2013 YTDDeliveries

2.0

9.5 5.3

15.0

45.1

Nov 2013

23.0

13.53.5

13.89.8

76.5

105.0470.9

3.0

2011

18.0

2012 E

14.9

14.3

2013‐10m45.9

1.8

0.9

16.0

7.7

Removals

‐5.2

‐2.489.8

13.9

5.3

0.1

91.0

91.4

43.9

15.3

45.6

18.7

14.514.6

‐0.22.91.3

Supply

‐0.4

10.6

0.59.7

3.3

90.9

45.0 44.6

15.9

5.121.1

2012‐10m

8.2

4.7

17.5

15.8

‐0.8

12.4

2.5

1.0

12.1

99.0

14.515.7

13.0

Spot

12m T/C

Dem

and

YoY in %

in %

2.3

2013 F44.6

2.5

23.6

13.1

16.0

14.514.3

15.8

13.3

‐5.6

14.74.2

How the world turns! The tepid green shoots of a market recovery

in October went into overdrive in November with the VLCC market

experiencing its strongest month in more than three years.

Chartering activity from the MEG remained brisk through the

whole month and with tonnage lists thinning out any charterer

opting to wait for owners to give in was forced to pay up instead.

Suezmaxes also benefited by getting better access to West African

11.8

15.0

20.7

15.213.4

14.8

cargoes. Aframaxes were flat on the month.

In the clean market a strong US Gulf export market dominated the

month while the Cont‐US market remained in a slump. Plentiful

supply of LRs put downward pressure on those segments through

the month.

18.1

14.6

Fleet end

13.6

13.4

17.2

13.0

2012 YTD

19.4

2013 YTD Oct 2013 Nov 2013

10.6

7.6

16.213.3

16.0

8.7

11.2

7.7

15.3

YoY

20.019.9

16.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

4‐Oct 18‐Oct 1‐Nov 15‐Nov 29‐Nov

VLCC Suezmax Aframax

0

5

10

15

20

25


MR Clean LR1 LR2

19

20

21

22

23

24

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

# World‐wide averages

# World‐wide averages


Tankers | Sale and purchase

Estimated values in mill USD Second hand values, 5 years old Mill USD

310,000 dwt resale305,000 dwt 5 years300,000 dwt 10 years160,000 dwt resale160,000 dwt 5 years160,000 dwt 10 years105,000 dwt resale105,000 dwt 5 years105,000 dwt 10 yearsC 75,000 dwt resaleC 75,000 dwt 5 yearsC 50,000 dwt resaleC 47,000 dwt 5 yearsC 47,000 dwt 10 yearsC 37,000 dwt 5 years Second hand values for clean carriers, 40/45,000 dwt Mill USD

Baltic Sale & Purchase Assessments in mill USDAverage Baltic panel assessmentsVLCC ‐ 5 years old 305,000 dwtAframax ‐ 5 years old 105,000 dwtMR Prod. ‐ 5 years old 45,000 dwt

Demolition prices in USD/ldt

Far EastSub continent ** India/Bangladesh/Pakistan

5 years second hand values in percent of newbuilding pricesSold for scrapping and other removals* in no. / mill dwt

VLCC ‐ double hullSuezmax ‐ double hullAframax ‐ double hullSmaller ‐ double hullTotal ‐ double hullSingle hullTotal* Including total loss/conversion/reclass

For tonnage definitions, visit www.platou.com/dnn_site/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=CodSYdx5lSM%3d&tabid=536


272.6

24.0

43.0

0

10.7

27.0

27.3

42.0

0.0

24.0

32.0

1.7

25.0

340

21.0

8.6

53.8

2013 YTD1.24

Nov 2013

85.0

24

30.0

Nov 2013

55.0

18.025.0

56.038.0

42.0

60.0 60.0

28.0

38.0

29.0

36.0

09

30.0

55.043.0

43.0

85.0

30.0

41119

28

1.6

20.0

21

10.7

0.2

26.8

3

45.028.039.0

55.0

36102

2.1

425

16

38.0

380

17

42.0 42.0

Improved VLCC earnings combined with near term deliveries

“drying‐up”, has lately made compelling stories to tell. Traditional

Owners as well as financial investors now turn their focus to the

VLCC sector – the “Ugly Duckling” of crude tankers for the past

several years. Fleet deals and single ship deals alike are under

development, but it is worth noticing that the larger transactions

in motion have in common an underlying requirement for public‐

and/or private

9

58.0

Nov 2012

54.0

33.0

29.0

6

66

28.0

Oct 2013 Nov 2013

18.0

28.0

28.0

20.0

26.5

20.0

0.1

15.0

365

16.0 18.0

420

32.0

1.1

35.0

36.0 38.0

25 Nov

0.01.6

2.5

Nov 2012

capital markets support. Thus it remains to be seen who can

successfully match their appetite with ability. The improved

psychology around VLCCs has so far not rubbed off on the

Suezmax sector where buying interest remains weak. For Aframax

tankers the buying interest is however rather strong and modern

sales candidates are scarce. The product tanker sector still holds a

fair level of s+p activity, although at a more sedate level. In

general, tanker prices remained stable to firming.

85.0 90.0

2012 YTD

54.70.82.11.0

78

60.0

Sep 2013

45.0

2.8

420

8.0

27.0

400

38.0 40.0

2

Oct 2013Sep 2013

11 Nov

340

27.5

30.0

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

10 years DH 5 years

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14



Bulk carriers | Freight market

Average freight rates in 1,000 USD/day Weekly spot rates 1,000 USD/day

CapesizePanamaxSupramaxHandysizeCapesizePanamaxSupramaxHandysize

For weekly freight rates, visit www.platou.com/dnn_site/EconomicResearch/WeeklyFreightRates.aspx

Dry bulk fleet development in mill dwt

12 months T/C rates 1,000 USD/dayCapesizePost PanamaxPanamax/KamsarmaxHandymax/SupramaxHandysizeTotal dry bulk fleet* Including conversions

Industrial production, YoY in %

USAEuro areaJapanChinaOther Asia China's dry bulk import by commodity Mill tons/month

Steel production in mill tons

USAJapanEU27ChinaOther AsiaTotal world


139.4

92.0

1321.0

‐2.3

90.2

2012‐10m

7.7

2.0

10.0

74.7 72.7 ‐2.8

4.4

12.49.1

3.2

2013 YTD

152.384.7

2013‐10m

12.4

7.6 277.6

1.8

14.0

33.9

14.0

10.1

9.4

11.9

9.5

2013F

11.512.8 11.89.5

602.7

Deliveries*

5.8

‐0.9

9.518.5 18.0

9.8

7.7

14.6

9.98.9

0.4

10.0

21.4

Removals

2.3

‐0.6

5.556.4

Oct 2013

Nov 2013

7.9

8.3

143.3

11.0

9.6

14.9

5.0

2012

1.93.03.6

20.5

8.3

8.2

4.0

11.6

The Supramax and Handysize segments experienced steadily

higher earnings during the course of November. In addition to high

activity in Black Sea grain exports, we noticed higher intra‐Asian

minor bulk traffic, especially in minerals from Indonesia to China. A

potential ban on Indonesian mineral exports from January 2014

has forced China to raise inventories before year end.

138.4

8.4

Spot

YoYFleet end

12m T/C

15.9

2013 YTD

Nov 2013

7.7

652.5

706.4

47.8144.0

‐3.4

‐0.7

YoY in %

20.7

2013 YTD

5.5

5.1

139.5

4.4

Panamax and Capesize tonnage experienced softer rates in the

first part of the month before a sharp recovery occurred in the

final week mainly driven by higher iron ore and coal shipments to

China and other Asian destinations and escalating US grain

shipments.

1279.9

‐0.8

2.5

‐0.1

2012 YTD

8.8

2.4

4.0

9.7

2014F

in %

10.1

0

10

20

30

40

50


Capesize Panamax Supramax Handysize

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Capesize Panamax Supramax Handysize

0

20

40

60

80

05.1 06.1 07.1 08.1 09.1 10.1 11.1 12.1 13.1

Iron ore Coal


Bulk carriers | Sale and purchase

Estimated values in mill USD Second hand values, 5 years old Mill USD

180,000 dwt resale172,000 dwt 5 years170,000 dwt 10 years82,000 dwt resale74,000 dwt 5 years72,000 dwt 10 years56,000 dwt resale56,000 dwt 5 years50,000 dwt 10 years32,000 dwt resale28,000 dwt 5 years28,000 dwt 10 years

Baltic Sale & Purchase Assessments in mill USD Second hand values, 10 years old Mill USDAverage Baltic panel assessmentsCapesize ‐ 5 years old 172,000 dwtPanamax ‐ 5 years old 74,000 dwtSuper Handy ‐ 5 years old 56,000 dwt

Demolition prices in USD/ldt

Far EastSub continent** India/Bangladesh/Pakistan

Sold for scrapping in no. / mill dwt

Capesize 5 years second hand values in percent of newbuilding pricesPost PanamaxPanamax/KamsarmaxHandymax/SupramaxHandysizeTotal


27.0

5.820.7

2.5

Nov 2013

Nov 201354.0

350

0.1

506

43687

23.0

Oct 2013

22.0 23.0

23.5

40.050.0

360

1460.2

11

19.0

19.0

26.5

20.4

37.6

14.0

41.0

21.0

31.2

18.0

6

330

11 Nov

7.6

16.0

31.5

38.0

29.0 30.0

73 43 2

31.5

Nov 2012

0.412.3

19.0

330

24.0 24.0

22.5

0.0

13.5

7.6

0

1

19.0

37.0

0.7

0.1

33.026.0

18.5

26.530.0

17.522.5

22.3

16.5

395

17.014.521.015.5

31.0

Despite the recent volatility in freight rates the activity remains

high with continued interest across the segments, which is clearly

evidenced by the number of ships sold. With investors still willing

to fund buyers appetite for tonnage,

24.0

Oct 2013

23.5

41.052.0

Nov 2012 Sep 2013

18.523.5

22.7

Sep 2013

368

25.5

198

coupled with a lack of modern tonnage in the market for most

sizes, prices for available sales candidates have continued their

firming trend across the board.

390 390 385

Nov 20132013 YTD2012 YTD

4.0

11.5

857

222 6.50.8

14.0

13.5

4.4

25 Nov

0

40

80

120

160

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Capesize Panamax Handymax

0

50

100

150

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14


50

75

100

125

150

175

200

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14



Cellular container ships

Average charter rates in 1,000 USD/day 12 month T/C rates 1,000 USD/day

1,000 TEU1,700 TEU3,000 TEU4,500 TEU

Container fleet development in mill TEU

Below 1,000 TEU1,000 ‐ 1,999 TEU2,000 ‐ 3,999 TEU4,000 ‐ 5,999 TEU6,000 ‐ 7,999 TEU8,000 ‐ 9,999 TEU Building prices Mill USD10,000+ TEUTotal container fleet

Order book in no. / mill TEUTEUBelow 1,000

1,000 ‐ 1,9992,000 ‐ 3,9994,000 ‐ 5,9996,000 ‐ 7,9998,000 ‐ 9,99910,000+Total

China Containerized Freight Index (CCFI) USD/TEUNew orders in no. / mill TEU

Below 1,000 TEU1,000 ‐ 1,999 TEU2,000 ‐ 3,999 TEU4,000 ‐ 5,999 TEU6,000 ‐ 7,999 TEU8,000 ‐ 9,999 TEU10,000+ TEUTotal

* Due to the market turbulence and an increaslingly complex sale and

purchase market, no second hand price updates have been provided

since October 2011


7.3

1.77

Nov 2013

0.00

in %

7.5

0

4.64

Oct 2013

1.32

Nov 2013

0.00

0.380.00

7.3

YoY

0.10

1.823.112.54

2.70

0.01

6.0

‐4.0

‐1.2

Fleet end

0.66

7.16.0

Removals

0.01

7.5

0.00

24.0

5.40.41

2

0.06

0.050.11

5.6

1.84

0.05

2013 YTD

41 0.06

8.58.9

2.7

0.03

0.81

6.68.2

68

‐2.8

2012 YTD

15.8

Rest 2013 2014 2015+

2012 2013 YTD Nov 2013

008

15

0.00

0.080.14

19

315

18

0.47 22410

42

910.93

0.060.02

12

90

00.01

0.090.02

6364

17

7

8

0.09

0.960.13

42

31

0.13

0.08

0.000.00

1

0.10

610.31

0.12

10.0

5.9

0.00

0.16

Total

7.3

2013 YTD

ships delivered from yards generated a too high fleet growth and

operators were forced to put more ships into idle position.

Charter rates remained relatively unchanged for ships below 3000

TEU, but for ships in the range of 3000 – 5000, slightly lower levels

were reported to have been fixed.

0.110.000.14

4

Deliveries

0.20

0.00

0.04

0.49

1.54

26

0.54600.03

13

0.07

0.041.06

57

106

3.69

43

0.18

20

27

0.28

0.00

0.09

474

77 0.22

72

5.7

Box rates rose significantly on major routes after a successful

implementation of GRI’s early last month. However, a weakening

tendency was noticed most recently both on Asia to Europe and

Asia to USA. US container imports increased 3 percent year on

year basis in October, and EU imports rose 4 percent. Seasonally

weaker demand growth combined with a continued inflow of new

8.3

2013 YTD

38 4

40.060.38

0.57

0.002

0.000.06

0.06

0.04

0.01

0.00

144

20

45

1.75

2

2.00

911

17.25

411

0.03

217212

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

4,500 TEU 3,000 TEU 1,700 TEU 1,000 TEU

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

9,000 TEU* 6,000 TEU* 4,500 TEU* 1,700 TEU

* Gearless

750

1 000

1 250

1 500

1 750

2 000

2 250

2010 2011 2012 2013China to N. Europe China to S. EuropeChina to USWC China to USEC


LNG carriers

Average charter rates in 1,000 USD/day Freight rates, 155,000 cbm 1,000 USD/day

155k cbm ‐ Spot155k cbm ‐ T/C

LNG carrier fleet development in no. / mill cbm

1,000 cbm10‐5050‐100100‐200200+Total

Order book in no. / mill cbm Building price, 155,000 cbm Mill USD1,000 cbm10‐5050‐100100‐200200+Total

New orders in no. / mill cbm1,000 cbm10‐5050‐100100‐200200+Total

Natural gas prices USD/mmbtu

LNG imports in mill mt

JapanKoreaChina

RS Platou Economic Research ASShipbroking | Oslo

2012

11.78

0

0 0.00

0.00

0.84

370.00

Nov 2013

0.00 05 11.585.95

17

‐7.5

56.85

0150

5.98

in %‐3.0

0

42.39

0.000.20

0

387

00.00 0.008‐0.01

0.00

14

9 0.23

18.38

2013 YTD

0.25

0

79

Continuing strong winter demand in the Far East is facilitating

short term charter rates to inch up towards the 100K per day mark

for steam vessels, with little premium being seen for TFDEs. In the

Atlantic, traders and portfolio players are practicing their Lego

skills, scrambling to build blocks of partial cargoes into something

resembling a whole one, in order to feed the thirsty Far East

markets.

0.09

2012 YTD

80 0

690.85

2013‐10m

390.00

119 18.60 4

111

00

5.33 1 0.17

2015+2014

2.360.00

38

Nov 2013

0.00 00

0.00

77

0.00 0.00

0.031

0.00

0.22

YoY in %72.829.011.8

72.232.914.2

‐0.913.220.7

33 5.45 30 5.10 1 0.170 0.00 0 0.00 0

93

YoY

Japan’s Metrological Agency’s 3 months forecast indicates a

significant probability of colder temperatures this winter. Supply

disruptions out of North Africa, are causing some cargo re‐

arrangements in the Atlantic. Speculation of increasing demand in

Southern Europe, may spike prices for what is available. On the

other hand, maintenance at NLNG is ending, which may bring

some cargo / price alleviation.

79

4.60.010.37

0.00

128140

99 90

315 45.13

0.03

2013 YTD

87

0.29

Nov 2013

Fleet end

10

1120

2012‐10m

33 5.45

Total

2013 YTD2013 YTDDeliveries Removals

453.7

‐1

0.00

Rest 2013

0.37

Oct 2013

1.060.042 13

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Spot 12m T/C

125

150

175

200

225

250

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14

Henry Hub NBP LNG spot Asia


Representative reported newbuilding contracts

ProductCapacity Owner Reported price/unit4 x 52,000 dwt Sungdong Shipbuilding Maersk 35 mill USD 2015 / 20165 x 52,000 dwt Hyundai Mipo Latsis 35 mill USD 20162 x 112,000 dwt Guangzhou Longxue Navig8 47.9 mill USD 2016

ChemicalCapacity Shipyard Owner Reported price/unit Delivery4 x 33,000 dwt New Times J O Tankers 2016

BulkCapacity Shipyard Owner Reported price/unit Delivery3 x 64,000 dwt Guangzhou Huangpu KC Maritime 26/27 mill USD 2015 / 20163 x 64,000 dwt Chengxi Shipyard Golden Ocean 2015 / 20166 x 82,000 dwt Hudong Shipbuilding Scorpio Bulkers 28 mill USD 2015 / 20162 x 82,000 dwt Jinling Shipyard Cara Shipping 27 mill USD 20152 x 150,000 dwt Hanjin H. I. S T X Pan Ocean 48 mill USD 20162 x 180,000 dwt Daehan Shipbuilding Knightsbridge 53 mill USD 20153 x 180,000 dwt Daewoo Mangalia Scorpio Bulkers 54 mill USD 2015 / 20161 x 180,000 dwt Hanjin H. I. Poseidon Shipping 54.5 mill USD 20161 x 206,000 dwt Daehan Shipbuilding Polaris 58 mill USD 20162 x 208,000 dwt N A C K S Foremost 58 mill USD 20164 x 208,000 dwt Taizhou Catic Oldendorff Carriers 53/54 mill USD 2015 / 20162 x 209,000 dwt N A C K S Winning Shipping 58 mill USD 20162 x 250,000 dwt Qingdao Beihai Cara Shipping 59 mill USD 2016

ContainerCapacity Shipyard Owner Reported price/unit Delivery2 x 2,400 teu Halter Marine Crowley Maritime 20172 x 3,600 teu Aker Philadelphia Matson Navigation 209 mill USD 20182 x 6,900 teu Hanjin Philippines Cape Shipping 58/59 mill USD 20155 x 9,200 teu Samsung H.I. Bank Of Communications 84.5 mill USD 2015 / 2016

2 x 9,200 teu Samsung H.I. Minsheng Financial Leasing 84.5 mill USD 20162 x 9,400 teu Jiangnan Changxing C S S C Leasing 80 mill USD 2015

LPGCapacity Shipyard Owner Reported price/unit Delivery2 x 38,000 liq Hanjin Philippines Exmar 46.5 mill USD 2017 / 20182 x 84,000 liq Hyundai H.I. B W Gas 73.5 mill USD 20162 x 84,000 liq Hyundai H.I. Dorian 75 mill USD 2015 / 20162 x 84,000 liq Hyundai H.I. Geogas 77 mill USD 20152 x 84,000 liq Hyundai H.I. Latsis 76/77 mill USD 2015 / 2016

LNGCapacity Shipyard Owner Reported price/unit Delivery1 x 173,400 liq Daewoo Shipbuilding Teekay 200 mill USD 2016

CARCapacity Shipyard Owner Reported price/unit Delivery2 x 7,930 ceu Hyundai Samho. Wilhelmsen Lines 20162 x 6,700 ceu Samjin Weihai Siem Car Carriers 2016


DeliveryShipyard


Representative second hand sales

TankName Capacity Built Price Buyers CommentsShanghai Spirit 320 000 dwt 2014/China 88.8 mill USD GreeceKumanogawa 302 000 dwt 2001/Japan 30 mill USD KoreaGrand China 297 000 dwt 2010/China " mill USD "Great China 297 000 dwt 2009/China " mill USD "Peace China 297 000 dwt 2011/China Enbloc 163 mill USD GreeceTenerife Spirit 160 000 dwt 2000/Korea 16.5 mill USD GreeceRio Genoa 159 000 dwt 2007/Japan 34 United States

Chemical/ProductName Capacity Built Price Buyers CommentsMako 104 000 dwt 1998/Korea 10.5 mill USD ChinaAffinity 73 000 dwt 2005/Korea 24.7 mill USD "Perseverance 74 000 dwt 2005/Korea 24.7 mill USD GreeceHyundai Mipo 2447 50 000 dwt 2014/Korea " mill USD "Hyundai Mipo 2448 50 000 dwt 2015/Korea " mill USD "Hyundai Mipo 2446 50 000 dwt 2014/Korea Undisclosed mill USD United StatesOkhotsk Sea 47 000 dwt 1999/Croatia10.5 mill USD IndonesiaAntea 40 000 dwt 2002/Korea 15.2 mill USD GreeceMilleura 40 000 dwt 2003/Korea 15.7 mill USD NetherlandsMadonna 31 000 dwt 1999/Japan 7.9 mill USD IndonesiaAtlantic Wind 15 000 dwt 2007/Roman 12 mill USD GermanyStx Hero 15 000 dwt 2009/Roman 12 mill USD GermanyClipper Daisy 13 000 dwt 1998/Japan 8 mill USD UndisclosedFranz Schulte 13 000 dwt 2006/Korea 12 mill USD KoreaPeter Schulte 13 000 dwt 2006/Korea 12 mill USD KoreaRuth Schulte 13 000 dwt 2007/Korea 12 mill USD Korea

ContainerName Capacity Built Price Buyers Comments

Hyundai Busan 6 763 TEU 2006/Korea 55 mill USD " "Hyundai Hongkong 6 763 TEU 2006/Korea 55 mill USD " "Hyundai Singapore 6 763 TEU 2006/Korea 55 mill USD " "Hyundai Tokyo 6 763 TEU 2006/Korea 55 mill USD " "Hyundai Shanghai 6 763 TEU 2006/Korea 55 mill USD Greece incl. 7 years t/c to HMM at USD 30,150/dayCarina Schulte 5 400 TEU 2014/Philippine 48 mill USD KoreaConti Tianjin 4 298 TEU 2006/Korea 14.6 mill USD ChinaBahia Blanca 3 630 TEU 2007/Korea 27 mill USD " "Bahia Castillo 3 630 TEU 2007/Korea 27 mill USD " "Bahia Grande 3 630 TEU 2007/Korea 27 mill USD " "Bahia Laura 3 630 TEU 2007/Korea 27 mill USD " "Bahia Negra 3 630 TEU 2007/Korea 27 mill USD " "Bahia 3 630 TEU 2007/Korea 27 mill USD Germany includes charter backCarlotta Star 3 430 TEU 2000/Korea 14.5 mill USD GreeceCatalina Star 3 430 TEU 2001/Korea 15 mill USD GermanyCma Cgm Melbourne 2 732 TEU 2006/Poland 17 mill USD UndisclosedCcni Rimac 2 526 TEU 2001/Germany 11.9 mill USD GermanyAustria 2 468 TEU 1997/Germany 7.2 mill USD Germany



Representative second hand sales

BulkName Capacity Built Price Buyers CommentsSanko Power 181 000 dwt 2010/Japan region 46 mill USD Great BritainK. Happiness 179 000 dwt 2011/Korea " mill USD "K. Global Pride 179 000 dwt 2012/Korea Enbloc 103mill USD United StatesHokuriku Maru 94 000 dwt 1995/Japan 8 mill USD ChinaShanghai Jiangnan Chan82 000 dwt 2014/China 32 mill USD "Shanghai Jiangnan Chan82 000 dwt 2014/China 32 mill USD MonacoPerly 78 000 dwt 2002/Japan 14.5 mill USD ChinaCarol 76 000 dwt 1999/Japan region 14 mill USD GreeceFu May 76 000 dwt 2002/Japan 16.5 mill USD UndisclosedAldebaran One 75 000 dwt 2000/China 12.5 mill USD IndiaPride Of Indore 75 000 dwt 1996/Italy 7.3 mill USD ChinaC. Journey 73 000 dwt 1995/Korea 7.25 mill USD GreeceEver Young 73 000 dwt 1995/Korea 7.2 mill USD GreeceHsin Ho 72 000 dwt 1997/Japan 10 mill USD TaiwanVitapride 69 000 dwt 1993/Japan 6.9 mill USD UndisclosedSainty Yangzhou Sam 1264 000 dwt 2014/China " mill USD "Sainty Yangzhou Sam 1264 000 dwt 2014/China Enbloc 55 mill USD ThailandSupra Challenger 2 61 000 dwt 2013/Japan " mill USD "Supra Challenger I 61 000 dwt 2012/Japan Enbloc 58. mill USD GreeceCentrans Star 57 000 dwt 2013/China 21 mill USD GreeceDesert Condor 56 000 dwt 2011/Japan 28 mill USD GreeceEast 55 000 dwt 2012/Vietnam " mill USD "South 55 000 dwt 2012/Vietnam " mill USD "West 55 000 dwt 2012/Vietnam " mill USD "Metropol 54 000 dwt 2012/Vietnam Enbloc region 100 GreeceMaple Creek 53 000 dwt 2005/Japan 18.5 mill USD GreeceFrontier Angel 52 000 dwt 2001/Japan 14.85 mill USD GreeceBoron Navigator 50 000 dwt 2001/Japan 15.5 mill USD GreeceAmorita 47 000 dwt 1997/Japan 12 mill USD Greece

Nesrin Aksoy 47 000 dwt 1997/Japan 9.5 mill USD DenmarkArgonaut 43 000 dwt 1991/Japan 5 mill USD GreeceSt. Nicholas 42 000 dwt 1996/Bulgaria xs 6 mill USD UndisclosedLittle Manatee 38 000 dwt 2012/Japan 23.5 mill USD GreeceJiangmen Nanyang 134 35 000 dwt 2014/China 23 mill USD "Jiangmen Nanyang 135 35 000 dwt 2014/China 23 mill USD UndisclosedVenus Ocean 34 000 dwt 2012/Japan 22.5 mill USD GreeceBeacon Sw 32 000 dwt 2007/Japan region 18 mill USD SingaporeTimothy‐R 32 000 dwt 2009/Korea 18.5 mill USD SingaporeCommodore 30 000 dwt 1997/Singapore8.3 mill USD ItalyFraga 29 000 dwt 2003/Japan 12.9 mill USD GreeceSouthern Fighter 29 000 dwt 1998/Japan 9 mill USD KoreaGlobal Challenger 25 000 dwt 1998/Japan 6.3 mill USD GreeceKen Un 24 000 dwt 1996/Japan low 6 mill USD UndisclosedBulk Sunset 18 000 dwt 1997/Japan 4.5 mill USD UndisclosedVinaconex Lines 16 000 dwt 2001/Japan 3.38 mill USD Undisclosed



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