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PNW Aquatic Ecosystems and Climate: PNW Aquatic Ecosystems and Climate: Where are we coming from and where are we Where are we coming from and where are we going?going?
R.C. Francis
N. Mantua
A fishery is composed of three dynamic and interacting elements: an ecosystem, a group of people working (economy), and a system of social control (management).
Arthur McEvoy The Fisherman’s Problem
What we’ve doneWhat we’ve done
• Large-scale studies of salmon and Pacific climate, identifying the “north-south inverse production pattern” and it’s link to PDO (Francis and Hare 1994; Hare and Francis 1995; Mantua et al 1997; Hare et al. 1999)
• Evidence for climatic links to marine ecosystem regime shifts in the N. Pacific (Hare and Mantua 2000)
• The Northern California Current Ecosystem and Fishery Management (Field 2004 PhD dissertation)
Northern California Current (NCC) Ecosystem Eureka
Columbia
Vancouver
Conception
Monterey
200 mile 200 mile EEZEEZ
NCC
Plots of raw acoustic backscatter (index of hake presence) derived from summer NMFS-DFO acoustic survey
Summer spatial distribution of Pacific hake controlled by climate
SubtropicalPipeline
Vera Agostini Ph.D. dissertation, SAFS, UW
Where are we now compared with the Where are we now compared with the 1960s?1960s?John Field, Ph.D. dissertation, SAFS, UW
Model fitted Model fitted to to assessment, assessment, survey and survey and catch data catch data (1960-2002) (1960-2002) with both the with both the Logerwell Logerwell index index (bottom-up) (bottom-up) and PDO and PDO (top-down) (top-down) forcingforcing
Neg log like:Neg log like:-379-379
no climate: no climate: -352 -352
1960 1980 2000 1960 1980 2000
What we’ve done: Climate and coho What we’ve done: Climate and coho salmonsalmon
• Developed a “lifecycle” model for Oregon coho productivity that includes both stream and ocean influences (~50/50)– Warm years negatively impact
both phases, though it’s the sequence of events that is key
Logerwell et al. 2003, Fish. Oc.; Lawson et al. 2004, CJFAS
What we plan to do
• Climate impacts on California Current coastal pelagics (hake and sardines) (Agostini, in prep)
• Jody Little’s work
• Climate studies for the new NOAA/NWFSC Fisheries “Center of Excellence in Oceans and Human HealthCenter of Excellence in Oceans and Human Health”– Our initial focus is climate impacts on Harmful Algal Bloom
events (a collaboration with the NWFSC) – Our goal is to develop decision-support tools for public health
agencies and the shellfish industry to bridge the current gap between climate information and HAB risk assessments
What we plan to do
• Integrated watershed studies to link climate with land cover, stream flow, coastal oceanography and salmon lifecycle productivity– Past work has assumed stream habitat was
“fixed”; now we plan to investigate land-use and water-use scenarios along with climate scenarios
Pete Lawson and Dan Miller, NOAA Fisheries (Newport Lab)
A landscape-based, dynamic, spatially A landscape-based, dynamic, spatially distributed coho salmon-population distributed coho salmon-population model to explore interactions between model to explore interactions between population dynamics and habitat population dynamics and habitat variability in space and timevariability in space and time
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000
Space (m)
Time (d)
•Tree growthTree growth•FireFire•LandslidesLandslides•Stream habitatStream habitat
•woodwood•gravelgravel
•PrecipitationPrecipitation
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
Simulation Year
Tota
l Num
ber o
f Ret
urni
ng A
dults
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000
Space (m)
Time (d)
Total number of returning adultsTotal number of returning adults1000 years of simulation1000 years of simulation
Intrinsic cyclesIntrinsic cycles•100 yr100 yr•500 yr ?500 yr ?
• Tree growthTree growth• stochastic climate stochastic climate (not cyclic)(not cyclic)
Pete Lawson and Dan Miller, NOAA Fisheries (Newport Lab)
Products and outreach
ProductsProducts• Oregon coho marine survival predictions (up to
1 year lead-time with climate forecast information)
• Coming soon: chinook marine survival studies and predictions for harvest planning
OutreachOutreach• Climate-Salmon stakeholder workshops
– annual water workshops since 1999– 1st was Sept 21, 2004 in Portland; 2nd will
be in early 2005 in Seattle
Impacts
• Partnerships with NOAA’s Northwest Fishery Science Center– Pilot study of climate impacts on salmon restoration strategies in
the Snohomish Basin– Proposal for a new NOAA Fisheries initiative to jointly study
climate and freshwater ecosystems that salmon rely on– Request from the Skagit Coop (the Swinomish, Lower Skagit,
and Sauk tribes) to collaborate on a climate impacts study for the Skagit River Basin
• Educating and training a new generation of NOAA fishery oceanographers and stock assessment scientists (e.g. Kerim Aydin, John Field, Vera Agostini, Libby Logerwell, Sarah Gaichas, Laurie Weitkamp, Ian Stewart, Melissa Haltuch, Jason Cope, …)
Integration: watershed studies
• Watershed studies around the life cycle of salmon integrates climate, hydrology, water resources, land use, forest ecology, and salmon recovery planning– pilot study of climate change impacts on salmon
recovery planning for the Snohomish Basin (collaboration between CIG and NOAA’s NWFSC)
– Planning for a more comprehensive study of another river basin (perhaps the Skagit Basin in collaboration with NOAA/NWFSC and tribal Co-Op?)