Podgorica Workshop - 21-10-2014 Trends in Aquaculture Rohana Subasinghe FAO, Rome

Podgorica Workshop - 21-10-2014

Trends in Aquaculture

Rohana SubasingheFAO, Rome

Podgorica Workshop - 21-10-2014Podgorica Workshop - 21-10-2014



9 billion by 2050!




Aquaculture vs. Capture Fisheries Production

1950

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2015

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2018

2019

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2022

0

20000000

40000000

60000000

80000000

100000000

120000000

140000000

160000000

180000000

200000000Capture Aquaculture 185m

91m

158m66m


Capture

Aquaculture2011: 62.7 million MT2012: 66.5 million MT2013: 70.2 million MT


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Aquaculture production

China61%

Asia91%

Americas, Europe, Africa, and Oceania Combined. 9%


World Fisheries and Aquaculture Production and Utilization


Marine Capture Fisheries: Major Producing Countries


Aquaculture production - aquatic animals (2012) (Million tonnes and million USD)

Quantity ValueWorld 66.6 137953.9Europe 2.9 11150.9Total 5 countries 0.0 0.1

Aquaculture production - aquatic animals (2012) by country (Thousand tonnes and million USD)

Quantity ValueEurope 2876.3 11150.9Five countries 24.1 111.7Bosnia and Herzegovina 3.6 12.2Croatia 10.7 66.3

Macedonia, Fmr Yug Rp of 1.3 5.8Montenegro 0.8 3.9Serbia 7.7 23.6


96%

4%

Global and European production of aquatic animals (quantity) (2012)

World Europe

99%

1%

Production of aquatic animals in Europe and in the five countries

(quantity) (2012)

Europe Five countries


Aquatic Production

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Croatia Macedonia, Fmr Yug Rp

of

Montenegro Serbia0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Production of aquatic animals by environment (2012)

Freshwater Marine

Thou

sand

tonn

es

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Croatia Macedonia, Fmr Yug Rp

of

Montenegro Serbia0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Production of aquatic animals by species (2012)

Fish Molluscs

Thou

sand

tonn

es


Carps, barbels and other cyprinids

Marine fishes Miscellaneous freshwater fishes

Mussels Salmons, trouts, smelts0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Bosnia and Hersegovina, aquaculture production (2012)Th

ousa

nd to

nnes


Carps, barbels and other cyprinids Miscellaneous freshwater fishes Salmons, trouts, smelts0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia, aquaculture production (2012)Th

ousa

nd to

nnes


Carps, barbels and other cyprinids

Miscellaneous coastal fishes

Miscellaneous freshwa-ter fishes

Mussels Salmons, trouts, smelts Tunas0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

Croatia, aquaculture production(2012)

Thou

sand

tonn

es


Carps, barbels and other cyprinids Miscellaneous coastal fishes Mussels Salmons, trouts, smelts0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

Montenegro, aquaculture production (2012)Th

ousa

nd to

nnes


Carps, barbels and other cyprinids Miscellaneous freshwater fishes Salmons, trouts, smelts0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Serbia, aquaculture production (2012)Th

ousa

nd to

nnes


European Aquaculture

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

European aquaculture produc-tion, quantity (2000-2012)

Europe (except 5 countries) 5 countries

Thou

sand

tonn

es

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

European aquaculture produc-tion,

value (2000-2012)

Europe (except 5 countries) 5 countries

Thou

sand

tonn

es


National AquacultureAquaculture production - aquatic animals (2000-2012) by country (thousand tonnes)

Land area 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

BosniaandHerzegovina 0 0 4.685 6.635 6.394 7.07 7.621 7.442 7.589 7.62 7.62 4.97 3.638

Croatia 6.876 10.468 9.095 9.505 10.917 12.127 15.497 14.045 13.878 14.229 13.991 12.846 10.667

Macedonia,mrYugRpo 1.217 0.787 0.763 0.864 0.959 0.843 0.588 1.041 1.287 1.54 1.491 1.368 1.306

Montenegro 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.354 0.361 0.614 0.565 0.74 0.84 0.84

Serbia 0 0 0 0 0 0 4.835 6.609 7.534 7.44 8.155 7.629 7.662

Grandtotal 8.093 11.255 14.543 17.004 18.27 20.04 28.895 29.498 30.902 31.394 31.997 27.653 24.114


Aquaculture Production and Value in 2012 by Species Groups

Podgorica Workshop - 21-10-2014Podgorica Workshop - 21-10-201450% in 2013!


Meat and Fishery Production(dressed or eviscerated weight)


Fish Price 2021


Fish Supply

Source: IMPACT Model projections, World Bank, 2014


Fish demand driven by population growth

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Billi

on

World Population

World

Africa

Asia

Europe

Latin America and Caribbean

Northern America

60.4%14.8%

8.6%

10.7%5.0% 0.5%

2010

Source: UN (2010 revision)

58.5%18.8%

8.4%

8.9%4.8% 0.6%

2030

Fish Demand (mt)

2007 (baseline

)

2030 (projecti

on)Africa 9.0 14.0 Asia 86.4 96.3 Europe 19.4 19.9 L.A. & C. 15.2 16.4 Northern A. 9.1 10.7 Oceania 1.1 1.4 World 140.3 158.8 Source: Estimation of FI Department

To maintain baseline consumption in every country, 159 million tonnes of fish needed to feed world population in 2030.

Total supply (211 mt) > Total demand (159 mt)


Fish demand driven by population and income growth

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

Billi

on

Population growth

World

Africa

Asia

Europe

L.A. & C.

N. America

Oceania

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

Africa Asia Europe L.A. & C. N. America Oceania World

%

Growth of GDP per capita: 2010-2020

Fish Demand (mt)

2007 (baseline)

2030 (projection

)

Africa 9.0 18.7

Asia 86.4 186.3

Europe 19.4 23.4

L.A. & C. 15.2 18.3

Northern A. 9.1 12.9

Oceania 1.1 1.8

World 140.3 261.2

Source: Estimation of FI Department


S-D gap (mt)Supply

2030Demand 2030

S-D gap2030

Africa 11.7 18.7 -7.0

Asia 156.5 186.3 -29.8

Europe 18.6 23.4 -4.8

L.A. & C. 16.2 18.3 -2.1

Northern A. 6.2 12.9 -6.6

Oceania 1.5 1.8 -0.3

World 210.7 261.2 -50.6


Fish supply-demand gaps


Improved and better managed fisheriesSustaining (increasing!) aquaculture growth

Reducing fish waste

Bridging the Gap


Aquaculture growth rate

during2007-2030

Expected APR (%)

Required APR (%)

World 4.0 5.6

Africa 7.2 11.5

Asia 4.0 5.3

Europe 3.1 4.0

L.A. & C. 4.4 7.6

Northern A. 0.4 9.0

Oceania 2.6 7.9


If countries aquaculture production follow the recent trend, expected aquaculture growth rate: 4.0 percent annually.

To feed growing and wealthier world population, required aquaculture growth rate: 5.6 percent annually.

Sustaining Aquaculture Growth


If not?………… In particular, per capita fish consumption in Sub-Saharan Africa is projected to decline at an annual rate of 1 percent to 5.6 kilograms during the 2010–30 period.

Source: Fish to 2030. World Bank 2014



There are many issues, challenges and opportunities. Biosecurity and Health Management should be considered as one of the top priorities among the issues to be addressed for sustaining the sector growth.Technology and innovationsInvestment and financePolicy and governanceImproved Public-Private-Partnership



Improved technology and new innovations are required for:GeneticsDisease managementFishmeal and fish oil replacementsImproving FCRReducing carbon emissionIncreasing the use of renewable energy Many more!






World fisheries production destined for export




Fish provides many valuable nutrients Proteins Long chain Omega 3 fatty acids Fat soluble vitamins Minerals like, Iron, Calcium, Iodine, Zinc and

Selenium

With numerous health benefits (known) reduced risk of cardiac death, aids

neurodevelopment in unborn infants (probable) reduced risk of stroke, (possible)

reduced risk of depression

In developing countries Fish provide nutrients where they are most

needed? Cheap small pelagics are becoming a growing

component in diets?


Farmed Aquatics vs. Other Animal Source Foods


FCR (kg/kg) Protein Efficiency %

N emission (kg/t)

P emission (kg/t)

Land (t/ha) Freshwater Use (m3/t)

Beef 31.7 5 1.200 180 0.24-0.37 15,497

Chicken 4.2 25 300 40 1.0-1.2 3.918

Pork 10.7 13 800 120 0.83-1.10 4,856

Finfish 2.3 30 360 48 0.15-3.70 5,000

Bivalves not fed not fed -27 -29 0.28-20.0 0

Comparison of Sustainability Indicators


Thank you!

Documents

Podgorica Workshop - 21-10-2014 Trends in Aquaculture Rohana Subasinghe FAO, Rome