Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs AssessmentNovember 2014

Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs AssessmentWhat is the PCNA?

• A shared overview of the main crime, community safety and criminal justice issues, risks and threats facing Avon and Somerset 

• It aims to inform:‐– Development of the 2015 to 2017 Police and Crime Plan– Grants and commissioning process for 2015/16– Organisational planning for 2015 and beyond

• It builds upon a wide range of partnership data

• It is refreshed on an annual basis

Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs AssessmentWhat information have we used?

Environmental Scanning

PESTELO analysesCensus  data / Topic ReportsChanging population profile Reviews and Other 

Analytical Products

Improving Support for Victims Restorative JusticeFGM Prevalence

Cyber Crime and Fraud ProfilesDisproportionate Victimisation

Partnership data

Criminal Justice dataRe‐offending profilesCriminogenic needCrime / ASB statistics

Consultation

PACT priorities 2014Police & Crime SurveyQuality of Life  in BristolActive Citizens’ Survey

OPCC Public Consultation 

National  Resources and      Data Sources

Crime Survey England &WalesPOLKA / College of PolicingLAPE / Alcohol‐related harmCrime Outcomes Profile

Overview of hate crime in E&WStrategic Policing Requirement

Organisational Reviews

Constabulary ReviewValue for Money ProfileStrategic Risk RegistersPerformance Reports

Partnership Assessments

Constabulary Strategic Threat Assessment 2014

Public Health Joint Strategic Needs Assessments

Community Safety Strategic Assessments

Social & Economic Health & Welfare

Political LegislativeSerious and Organised Crime Act

Modern Slavery BillASB, Crime and Policing Act

Stop & Search Powers

Rapid and extensive changeModernisation

Reducing budgetsCollaboration

Partnership workingStrategic CommissioningProfessional Standards 

Transparency

Organisational Landscape

Technological

Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs AssessmentWe have scanned the changing environment

Falling educational standards, Skill shortages

Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs AssessmentRecorded Crime and ASB is falling long term, but…

Police Recorded Crime and Self-reported VictimisationAvon and Somerset - 2001-2015

‐ 19%• Domestic burglary*

‐ 19%• Robbery*

‐ 6%• Vehicle Crimes

‐ 19%• Firearms Offences

‐ 8%• Criminal damage

* There are indications that these reductions will not be sustained in 2014/15 across these offence categories

Reductions in Crime2012/13 to 2013/14

Recorded youth offending

down 19%

Proven adult repeat offending

down 5% pts

1 in 3 suffer crime on‐line 

compared to 1 in 5 off‐line

1 in 3 suffer crime on‐line 

compared to 1 in 5 off‐line

Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs AssessmentRisk is increasing across some key categories

• Low‐level acquisitive crimes

• Targeted high value rural crime

• Crimes committed or facilitated on‐line

• People killed or seriously injured on our roads, particularly motorcycle fatalities

+ 9%• Shoplifting

+ • Bilking

+ 17%• Fraud*

+ 5%• Cost of rural crime*

+• Financially motivated cyber crime*

+ • Personally directed cyber crime*

+ 4% • Killed and Seriously Injured on roads

* Based on national estimates

Increasing risk2012/13 to 2013/14

Road KSIs rose by 4% compared to 6% reduction nationally 

Road KSIs rose by 4% compared to 6% reduction nationally 

Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs AssessmentAnd while our picture of hidden harm is improving…

Protecting Vulnerable People

• Reported Sexual Offences up 28%• Reported Rape Offences up 50%

• Recorded Child Sexual Exploitation crimes up 98%• Recorded Child Protection crimes up 19%

• Recorded Adult Safeguarding crimes up 69% • Recorded FGM incidents up 33%

• Recorded Human Trafficking incidents have increased five fold• Recorded Hate Crimes up 23%

* Honour based violence cases coming to the attention of authorities nationally has fallen by 12% in the last year to 1,300

2013/145% of crime victims 

assessed as vulnerable

2014/1525% crime victims 

assessed as enhanced Victims’

Code of Practice

Known Organised Crime Groups are 

under‐represented in Somerset (HMIC)

Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs AssessmentThere is still much we do not know

Only 40% of hate crimes reported to police (CSEW)

Less than 40% of domestic violence is reported to police 

(CSEW)

• Gaps in self reported victimisation studies(sexual offences, business crimes, children under 10)

• Violence against the person trends distorted by improvements in recording practices 

• Extensive under‐reporting of personally directed crimes & low level incidents

Larger businesses less likely to report cyber crime on account of reputational impact

• Extent of hidden harm      (CSE, FGM, domestic abuse, human trafficking)

70% of victims with mental health

conditions do not report (Mind)

While 15% of young people report crime to police, 60% report to teachers (CSEW)

Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs AssessmentPriority Locations

• Risk of victimisation is highest in urban centres and areas of high deprivation and complex need

Night Time Economy- Bristol- Bath- Weston-super-Mare- Kingswood- Yeovil- Taunton

Priority Neighbourhoods- Trinity- Easton- Filwood- Hartcliffe- St Pauls / Ashley Ward- Southward / Bournville

Street drinking and aggressive begging – Bath City Centre

As the largest urban area in Avon and Somerset and national core city, Bristol accounts for 42% of all recorded crime locally

Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs AssessmentChanging Victimisation and Safeguarding Profile

• Harmful sexual behaviour amongst children is increasing ‐ including access to indecent images and ‘sexting’

• Increased risk of stalking, harassment and other victimisation via the use of anonymous dating sites  / web‐based media

• Continued increase in complex demand on safeguarding agencies, including:‐– Mental health need– Identified hidden harm / vulnerability

•Mental health‐related demand

•Harmful sexual behaviour amongst young people

•Vulnerable road users, particularly motorcyclists

•Lifestyle‐related risk, incl. social media & dating sites

Increasing risk

New Commissioning arrangements and assessment processes in 2014/15 will supportthe development of a more composite profile of victimisation and victim needs in 2015/16

Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs AssessmentChanging Offending Profile

• No significant change in overall offender profile over previous 3 years 

• Youth offending rates and proven adult re‐offending continue to reduce

• The intelligence picture with regard to organised criminality is improving

• Known profile of sexual offenders is getting younger. Half of those identified for grooming offences are <25 yrs old

• Intelligence suggests that organised criminality is becoming more sophisticated and diversified 

• Sexual offending amongst young people

• Sophistication of organised criminality

‐ 19%• Youth offending 

‐ 5%• Proven adult re‐offending

Increasing risk

Reducing risk

Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs AssessmentThe Criminal Justice System

• More streamlined processes• Digital Evidence Programme• Cracked cases have fallen by 2%• Case file quality up from 25% to 73%• Increasing use of restorative justice

However,

• Ineffective cases have increased from 13% to 15%

• The restorative justice landscape is inconsistent and uncoordinated

Criminal justice demand is likely to increase over the next year as a result of increases inVictim care (IVC), identification of hidden harm and re-commissioning of fixed speed cameras

•Gaps in provision & fragmentation of services 

•Increasing demand: motoring offences / IVC

•Modernisation and improved CJ processes

•Development of the RJ landscape

Increasing risk

Reducing risk

Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs AssessmentWe are listening to what matters to our communities

Neighbourhood satisfaction is increasing

Public confidencein policing remains

high – 79%

We know what is important to communities

•Reducing public sector budgets – loss of embedded n’hood teams

•Rural areas less likely to feel that their issues are being addressed

Increasing risk

Complaints against the

police made to the PCC have increased by

around 34% in the last 12

months

35% of those feeling they do not have

confidence in police cite

‘lack of visibility; as main cause

Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs Assessment

Critical Interdependencies

Partnership commitment to supporting:

Integrated approaches to tackling the most problematic and complex needs 

Joined‐up preventative strategies, maximising predictive analytic approaches, improving security and environmental design

Exploiting new technology and techniques in response to the changing crime, community safety and organisational landscape

Further alignment of strategic priorities – particularly with regard to supporting vulnerable victims, reducing re‐offending and reducing the harm caused by drug and alcohol use

New technology and techniques – including cyber‐enabled crime and on‐line offending

Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs AssessmentKey Partnership Strategic Risks

Drugs and alcohol ‐ significant factors linked to acquisitive offending, violent offending and ASB 

Low level acquisitive crime is increasing ‐ increasing demand in market for stolen / illicit goods

Potential for reduced support for low & medium risk victims & offenders (new arrangements) 

Prevalence of hidden harm and increasing safeguarding demand – including mental health

Increase in vulnerable road users and risk of being killed or seriously injured on our roads

Spending challenge  / Public sector budgets ‐ impact on preventative and partnership activity

Organisational reform, fragmentation of services and the loss / dilution of specialist expertise

Young people – disproportionate risk of harm, lower levels of reporting, confidence & satisfaction

Impact of rapid growth and diversification of local communities, including economic migration

Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs AssessmentKey Partnership Opportunities (1)

Review current and future resourcing implications of increasing public protection & safeguarding demand & explore further collaboration opportunities.

Improve confidence to report victimisation, including third party reporting.  Support outreach & advocacy, particularly amongst young people and BME women

Maintaining multi‐agency commitment to integrated approaches to tackling complex need, including targeted local problem solving in areas of highest demand 

Strengthen cross‐agency prevention focus via development of a prevention strategy, including a focus on security within both the built environment and online

Continued commitment to drugs and alcohol education, early intervention and treatment

Avon and Somerset Police and Crime Needs AssessmentKey Partnership Opportunities (2)

Improving education and the planning and co‐ordination of local highways policy.  Embedding the Policing the Roads Strategy

Building capacity within and across organisations and communities, particularly in fostering ‘active citizenship’ and  maximising the use of new tools and powers

Continued commitment to modernisation, innovation and improving crime and criminal justice processes – including file quality (Stop the Drift 2)

Work collaboratively to understand and support the needs of new and minority communities, particularly new and minority communities and young people  

Improve training, case management and information sharing for vulnerable victims outside of the MARAC framework