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Policy Modelling in Practice Workshop
ePolicyExploitation of Results - Challenges and
OpportunitiesPrince Philip House, London
8th December 2014
Tony WoodsPPA Energy
ePolicy – What is it?
ePolicy
An EU FP7 funded project
Aimed at developing tools that support policy making decisions
Dissemination and exploitation is a key part of the project
This presentation will introduce the ePolicy project, and discuss the strategies and obstacles for dissemination and exploitation of the results.
Background
Public policy issues are often extremely complex, occur in rapidly changing and uncertain environments, involve balancing different interests, and managing conflicts between interest groups. Energy policies strongly affect economic development, environmental impacts and social acceptance.More and more emphasis is being given to sustainable energy policies.
ePolicy ProjectePolicy Project:
Funding: EU FP7 STREP Project funded under ICT tools for Governance and Policy ModellingAim: to develop an advanced integrated IT tool to support the decisions of policy makersMethodology: Multi-disciplinary approach, merging global and individual perspectivesCase study: aspects of the Emilia Romagna regional Energy PlanExploitation: Methodology for extending the tools to different applications has been developed.
ePolicy PartnersUniversities:
ALMA MATER STUDIORUM - Università di Bologna (Italy)The University of Surrey (UK)Università di Ferrara (Italy)University College Cork (Ireland)
Public Sector:Regione Emilia Romagna (Italy)
Private sector:PPA Energy (UK)
Research Agency:ASTER (Italy)
Research Institutions:INESC Tec, Associate Laboratory (Portugal)Fraunhofer Institute for Computer Graphics Research (Germany)
ePolicy – How it is made up
Opinion mining
Global optimiser
Incentive design
Social simulator
Visualisations
OPTIMISEINCENTIVE MECHANIS
MS
INCENTIVE POLICY
€
t1 policy per instrument
MW
t trends
Opinions
tenvironment
Quality
t
INCENTIVE MECHANISMS
POLICY TARGET ENERGY MONEY
OPINIONS
POLICY MAKER CITIZENS
ENVIRONMENTAL EXPERT
Global Optimiser
OpinionMining
IncentiveDesign
SocialSimulator
ePolicy Tools
Opinion Mining - Visualisation
2 -1 -0 -
-1 --2 -
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Solar Panels - General
Categories
Economic Aspect
Environmental Aspect
Technology AspectCategory Score Title Author Date Text
Technology 1 Xxx Xx Xxxxx DATE Xxxx Xxx Xxxx Xx Xxxx
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2 –
1 –
0 –
-1 –
-2 –
Incentive Design and Social Simulator - Visualisation
Installed Capacity (Cumulative)500-400-300-200-100-
0- Pre 2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
MW
Costs (per year)400M-
0-
-400M-
-800M- Pre 2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Overall
Euro
Participant Rates (per year)80k-60k-40k-20k-
0- Pre 2014 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Overall
Global Optimiser- IntroductionList of activities with:• Costs• Impacts• Environment
al Impacts
• Required Energy• Budget• Constraints• Targets
OPTIMISED PLANS
Global Optimiser- VisualisationImpacts on EnvironmentCompare Plans
Energy Cost
Plan 1-
Plan 2-
Plan 3-
3.45k
1.77k
2.61k
12.0B
6.09B
9.05B
MW Euro
Compare Plans by Energy Source
Energy Cost
Solar PV
Hydro
Solar Thermal
ThermalBiomass
Wind
1k 2k kTOE Euro4B 8B
Where we are now
Now in the final months of the project:
ePolicy has developed tools that support policy making decisions
These are currently focused on the policy of the Emilia-Romagna region in Italy for regional planning and for designing incentives for fostering the adoption of renewable energy, specifically photovoltaics
However, the tools and knowledge developed have potential applications far beyond this
HIGHER SCALE: National and EU
LOWER SCALE: Province and Municipality
OTHER POLICY AREAS
PRIVATE SECTOR
OTHER REGIONSOTHER PARTS OF THE RER ENERGY PLAN
RENEWABLE ENERGY SECTOROTHER SECTORS
ePolicy Tool: RER Energy plan
Renewable Energy
Potential Extensions to the Tools
HIGHER SCALE
LOWER SCALE
OTHER POLICY AREAS
PRIVATE SECTOR
OTHER REGIONSOTHER PARTS OF THE ENERGY PLAN
Using the tools at a higher scaleThis includes at the :
EU levelNational level
The DSS would need to be tailored for various policy structures
For example ePolicy tools could be used to:
EU: Develop high level renewable energy targets, taking account of Sustainable Development Indicators
National: Identify which technologies should be developed and the incentives to support them
Using the tools in other regionsIncluding:
Within Italy, where there are policy structures similar to RERElsewhere, allowing for varied policy structures
Elements of the system would need to be changed, for example:
DSS: tailored to the policy structure of the target region
Social Simulator: tuned to the characteristics of the new population
HIGHER SCALE
LOWER SCALE
OTHER POLICY AREAS
PRIVATE SECTOR
OTHER REGIONSOTHER PARTS OF THE ENERGY PLAN
Using the tools at a lower scaleAt a lower scale including:
Provinces, countiesMunicipalities, citiesTowns, villages
The aim may be a detailed understanding of the optimal balance of resources and interventions
Provincial and municipality level policy structures are likely to be similar to the regional ones
The changes to the tool would be the same as using it in other regions
HIGHER SCALE
LOWER SCALE
OTHER POLICY AREAS
PRIVATE SECTOR
OTHER REGIONSOTHER PARTS OF THE ENERGY PLAN
Using the tools in other policy areas
Examples:TransportEducationHealthHousing
Required changes will depend on the structure of the specific policy planPlans are likely to include the following:
Existing situation and previous plansObjectives and StrategiesPriorities and interventionsImplementation and Monitoring
HIGHER SCALE
LOWER SCALE
OTHER POLICY AREAS
PRIVATE SECTOR
OTHER REGIONSOTHER PARTS OF THE ENERGY PLAN
Using the tools for other parts of the RER Energy Plan
An example of this could be energy efficiency
In both the renewable energy and energy efficiency policy areas: Numerous possible measures existThere are many barriers to implementationSeveral potential instruments to incentivise adoption can be devised
It is likely that the tools can be tailored to this application with only a small amount of effort
HIGHER SCALE
LOWER SCALE
OTHER POLICY AREAS
PRIVATE SECTOR
OTHER REGIONSOTHER PARTS OF THE ENERGY PLAN
Using the tools for private sector applications
Examples could includeLoad Control ProgrammesProduct Design DecisionsEnvironmental assessment
HIGHER SCALE
LOWER SCALE
OTHER POLICY AREAS
PRIVATE SECTOR
OTHER REGIONSOTHER PARTS OF THE ENERGY PLAN
Load Control Programmes:
Support the balance of electricity supply and demand
Service providers may introduce incentives to encourage usage behavior
Strategies could be optimised using tools based on ePolicy.
Telling People About ePolicy
Dissemination to the scientific community
Dissemination to the Public
Stakeholders involvement
Engaging Potential Users
Stakeholder Events, for example: The Constraint Programming, Artificial Intelligence and Operations Research (CPAIOR) conference (Cork), and Samos Summit (Greece)
Networking with the existing contacts of the ePolicy team: Italian policy makers: Emilia Romagna regional government, Italian Ministry of Economic DevelopmentUK policy makers: Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) ENELPrivate Sector – Yachts
Using ePolicy Knowledge: HurdlesThere are many potential barriers to exploitation of the ePolicy tools including:
Access to the right people
Acceptance
Technical
Tool usability and accessibility
Project scope, effort and funding required
Identification of future development opportunities
Further uses of the ePolicy tools discussed
Uses at a higher scaleDECC: Discussions about developing a social simulator for PV in the UK
Other policy areasDistributing Structural FundsScenario evaluation and Strategic Environmental Assessment
Usage in business modelsUsing the ePolicy methodology to define business models and pricing arrangements for ENEL in a new EU project called DAREED
Confidential discussions with others
In summary………The ePolicy team has developed powerful new tools aimed at helping the policy decision making processThe tools and capability developed are relevant for all areas of policy making and beyondWe are telling stakeholders and academics about these tools wherever possibleWe are demonstrating the toolsThe aim is to find ways to take the development and application of these tools forwardHowever there are barriers to overcomeIf you would like to know more talk to a member of the ePolicy team