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Policy Monitoring and the CPIA in Sub-Saharan Africa. The Approach of the Africa Assistance Strategy (ASAF). Levels of Monitoring in ASAF. Three levels: 1) IDA ’ s own programs and delivery 3) Country Outcomes (MDGs and derivatives) In between: - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Policy Monitoring and the CPIA in Sub-Saharan Africa
The Approach of the Africa Assistance Strategy (ASAF)
Levels of Monitoring in ASAF
Three levels: 1) IDA’s own programs and delivery3) Country Outcomes (MDGs and derivatives)
In between:2) Policies and Implementation in a Partnership
Model of Assistance:The effectiveness of policies and country institutions: CPIA, and other assessments
CPIA Objective and Schedule
Objective: Assess the quality of country policy and institutional
framework, guide IDA allocationAnnual schedule Feb/March: Discussion and finalization of the
Questionnaire April/May: Benchmarking (4 AFR countries, 19
Bankwide) June: Work on country ratings July-August: Discussions with center and networks
and finalization of ratings
CPIA Process
Coordinated and managed by country economists with inputs from CDs, sector specialists and country teams
Interactive discussions in AFR Final vetting by PREM and sector specialists to
ensure regional consistency Inputs from OPCS to ensure Bank wide
consistency
IDA Countries CPIAs
3.23.13.13.0
3.5 3.53.6 3.6
2.5
3
3.5
4
1999 2000 2001 2002
Ove
rall
CP
IA R
atin
g
SSA
Non SSA
CPIA Trends, by cluster
3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3
3.73.9
3.83.7
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
1999 2000 2001 2002
CP
IA E
cono
mic
Man
ag.
Non-SSA
SSA
3.6
3.33.23.13.1
3.63.53.5
2.5
3
3.5
4
1999 2000 2001 2002
CPI
A S
truc
utre
pol
icie
s
SSA
Non-SSA
CPIA Trend, by cluster
3.12.9
3.5
3.7
2.5
3
3.5
4
1999 2000 2001 2002
CP
IA S
ocia
l inc
lusi
on Non-SSA
SSA
3.4
2.8
3.0
3.2
2.5
3
3.5
4
1999 2000 2001 2002
CP
IA P
ub
lic
sect
or
Non-SSA
SSA
SSA: Sub-Regional CPIA Trend
1.5
1.7
1.9
2.1
2.3
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.1
3.3
3.5
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Avera
ge C
PIA
rati
ng
East Africa
Central Africa
West Africa
Southern Africa
18
ASAFCountry Policy &
Institutional Assessment (CPIA)
20 indicatorsin 4 groups
Economic Management Social Inclusion/Equity Structural Policy Public Sector Mgmnt
What does it measure?
**Angola **Burundi Central Afr. Rep.Comoros **Congo, DR.**Congo, RepEquatorial Guinea*Gabon **Guinea-BissauNigeria Sao Tome & Pr.*Seychelles **Sierra LeoneSudan *Swaziland Togo Zimbabwe
Benin Cameroon Chad Cote d‘Ivoire**Eritrea Ethiopia The GambiaGuinea Kenya Lesotho Madagascar MalawiMozambique Niger Zambia
*Botswana Burkina FasoCape Verde Ghana MaliMauritania *Mauritius *Namibia Rwanda Senegal *South AfricaTanzaniaUganda
Middle third Top thirdWhat are current scores?
Bottom third
*IBRD **Post-conflict
How do CPIA Ratings Compare?
WB vs. AfDB, all countries
y = 0.7x + 0.7
R2 = 0.8
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
2002 AfDB CPIA
2002 W
B C
PIA
Correlation coefficient = 0.8745o line
How do Ratings Compare?CPIA vs. Kaufman governance, IDA countries
For Non-SSA IDA countries
y = 0.73x + 3.65R2 = 0.38
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
-3 -2 -1 0 1
Average KK. Governance indicators, 2002
2002
CPI
A
For SSA IDA Countries
y = 0.62x + 3.52R2 = 0.44
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
-3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0
Average KK governance indicators, 2002
2002
CPI
A
How do Ratings Compare?CPIA vs. Economic Freedom, IDA countries
For Non-SSA IDA Countries
y = -0.32x + 4.39R2 = 0.13
11.5
2
2.53
3.54
4.55
1 2 3 4 5
2002 EFI
2002
CPI
A
For SSA IDA Countries
y = -0.77x + 5.84R2 = 0.31
1
2
3
4
5
1 2 3 4 5
2002 EFI
2002
CPI
A
How do Ratings Compare?CPIA vs. HDI Ranking, IDA countries
For Non-SSA IDA Countries
y = -0.57x + 4.15R2 = 0.23
1
2
3
4
1 2 3 4 5
2000 CPIA ratings
HD
I (no
rmal
ized
by
a fa
ctor
of 4
9)
For SSA IDA Countries
y = -0.09x + 3.37R2 = 0.02
1
2
3
4
1 2 3 4 5
2000 CPIA ratings
HDI (
norm
aliz
ed b
y a
fact
or o
f 49)
CPIA and Policy Dialog
Increasing transparency: letter grades for IDA countries
Instrument for policy dialog with clients: how to move up the spectrum– Blend with Outcome Indicators
CAS formulation role Support by benchmarking in key areas
Related Benchmarking Assessments
Public budget and financial management: transparency, expenditure tracking (HIPC), SAIs
Service delivery: education, WSS, health Investment Climate Statistics
The End