7/7/2015 PolicyNetworkOfdoorsandvoters

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FranceVotersEngagement

Ofdoorsandvoters

GuillaumeLiegey,ArthurMuller&VincentPons27March2013

Thepoliticalpartyofthemustembracethewealthofknowledgecreatedbymodernscienceinadaptingoldmethodstonewcircumstances

Aworldrecordwasbrokenin2012:thenumberofdoorsknockedonbypoliticalvolunteers(inFrancealone,5milliondoorswereknocked,by80,000volunteers).IntheUnitedStates,theNetherlandsandFrance,votermobilizationthroughdoortodoorcanvassingwasatthecoreofcampaignteamswinningstrategies.Intwoofthesecountries(Netherlands,France),thiswasunprecedented.Thesesuccessesarelikelytoreinforcethemomentumaroundvotermobilization.AcrossEurope,manyprogressivepoliticalpartiesareaddingdoortodoorcanvassingtotheirtraditionalarsenalforfuturecampaigns.Webelievethisnewparadigmwillhavelastingeffectsonhowcampaignsarerunandmorebroadlyonthefunctioningofpoliticalpartiesandmoderndemocracies.

Overthepastfifteenyears,campaigninghasincreasinglybeenshapedbyscience.Politicalresearchersandpractitionershaveleddozensoffieldexperiments,improvingtheknowledgeavailableinpoliticalscienceaboutthedeterminantsofpoliticalbehaviourandhowtobestwinvotes.DuringthelatestObamacampaign,RCTs(randomisedcontroltrials)hadbecomeastandardcampaigntooltheywereusedtocomparetherelativeeffectivenessofdifferentinterventionsseekingtoincreasevoterspropensitytovoteortheirlikelihoodtojointhecampaignasvolunteers.Beyondthetacticallessonsofalltheseexperiments,thereisonekeyinsightforthosewhowishtomodernisethewaypoliticsisdone:nothingbeatsfacetofacecontactwithvoters.ObamaforAmerica2012usedthemostsophisticatedstatisticalmodelsforaverypracticalpurpose:identifyingspecificvoterswhoshouldbetargetedbycampaignvolunteers.

ThefirstevidenceofthepowerofdirectinteractioncamefromtheseminalworkofAlanGerberandDonaldGreen.TheirRCTinNewHavenin1998openedthewayforthecomebackofdoortodoorcanvassinginUScampaigns.Buildingupontheirresearch,weorganisedin2010arandomisedexperimentwiththePartisocialisteinFrancethefirststudythatrigorouslymeasuredtheimpactofdoortodoorcanvassingonturnoutinthiscountry.Whilethisdoortodoorpartisancanvassingdidnotaffecttheparticipationamongcitizensofthemainstreampopulation,itstronglyincreasedtheparticipationofforeignborncitizensandtheirdescendants.Thisexperimentenabledustoisolateaspecificchannelthroughwhichcanvassingcanaffectturnout:byincreasingthesenseofbelongingtothenationalcommunity

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amongtheleastintegratedcitizens.

AllvolunteerswhoparticipatedinthedoorknockingprojectweremembersofthePartisocialiste.Theygreatlyenjoyedtheexperienceofengagingdirectlywithvotersandencouragingthemtovote.Formostofthem,itwasthefirsttimetheyeverknockedondoors.Still,somehadbeenpartymembersforoveradecade.Doortodoor,anactivitydirectedatnonvoters,wasatraditioninthe1970sbutslowlydisappearedfromcampaignstrategies,fortworeasons:

First,politicalpartiesinFrancetendedtofocustheireffortsonpersuadingactivevotersratherthanreachingouttononvoters.

Second,mostpartyactivitieswereselfcenteredandmemberstimewasspentinfratricidedebatesratherthanfieldworkinlocalcommunities.Partymemberswouldhencehavelittleinteractionsoutsideofthepartysphere.Thingschangedin2012:FranoisHollandesvotermobilizationcampaigngathered80,000volunteerswhoknockedat5milliondoorsinfourmonthsthelargestfieldcampaigneverorganisedinEurope.

Whatcanpoliticalpartiesinothercountrieslearnfromthis?

Thepoliticalpartyofthefuturewillembracethewealthofknowledgemadeavailablebypoliticalscienceanddesignitsstrategiesbasedonrigorousscientificevidence.Also,itwilldevoteresourcestobuildaperennialmobilizationinfrastructure,notablytoengagewithcitizenswhoseepoliticsasaremoteandforeignworld.

Veryfewpartieshaveyetmadearuleofsystematicallyusingresearchresultstocraftcampaignstrategies.Yetpoliticalscienceandappliedpsychologycannowteachcampaignerswhichmessagesbestgetvotersouttovote,whichcanvassersshouldbematchedwiththevoterstheycanvass,andinwhichway,orwhattherighttimingofthesevisitsis.

DuringthelatestObamacampaign,the50highlytrainedexpertsthatwerepartoftheanalyticsteamandwereresponsibleforcrunchingimmensedatasetsandmicrotargetingthecitizenstobedirectlycontactedbycampaignvolunteersdidnotstartfromscratch:theDemocraticPartyhadalreadymadeahabitofusingexperimentalteststobuildpredictingmodelsandithadcollectedvastdatasetsaboutcitizensregistrationstatus,pastvotinghistoryaswellashugecommercialdatabases.

Suchananalyticsteamcouldbeabuildingblockofalargerpermanentmobilizationinfrastructure,activebothduringandoutsideofcampaignperiods.Makingmobilizationapriority,thepoliticalpartyofthefuturewillengagewithvotersactiveandinactiveinbetweenelections.Thiswouldstrengthentherelationshipbetweenpartiesandvoters,sincethelatterwouldnotbesolelycontactedontheeveofElectionDaybutengagedinalongertermdialogue.Thelatterisagreatmeanstocollectfirsthandinformationaboutthestateofpublicopinionandreceivefeedbackongovernmentpolicyandongoingpublicdebates.Inlate

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2010,PartisocialistesvolunteerswehadworkedwithduringourexperimentdecidedtoknockonvotersdoorstodiscussNicolasSarkozyspensionsystemreformandexposetheircounterarguments.Theyreceivedawarmwelcomefromvoters,whohadnotexpectedtoreceivethevisitofpoliticalvolunteersoneyearbeforethenextcampaigncycle.

Offcampaignperiodscanalsobeusedtorunexperimentsandaddresskeyquestionssuchas:Whatdrivescitizenstovolunteerandengageinpolitics?Whatarethemosteffectivemessagestohighlightthefailuresofgovernmentpolicywhenyourpartyisinopposition?Whichvotersegmentsaremorelikelytosupportyou?Allthesequestionscanbetestedoutsideofcampaignperiods.

Astheybuildupexpertiseinmobilizationstrategies,partiescanstartsharingtheirknowledgewithlocalcivicorganizationsandbecomeincubatorsforcommunityorganizingprojects,especiallyinlowincomeneighbourhoods.Theyhavetheresourcesandexpertisetoorganisetraining:duringthelastpresidentialcampaignsinFrance,morethan150sessionstookplacetotrain6,000fieldorganisers.Theinfrastructurebuiltduringthecampaignshouldbemademorepermanentandevenaccessibletononpartymembers.TheAmericanembassyinFranceorganisedcommunityorganizingtrainingsessionsforyoungleadersfromthebanlieuesFrancesdisadvantagedneighbourhoods.LeMondejournalistLucBronnerexplainedthatThankstothisoperation,theAmericanembassyhasbuiltthebestnetworkinthebanlieues.Whywouldntpoliticalpartiesdothesameandopentrainingprogramstolocalcommunityleaders?

Webelievesuchchangesareverylikelytohappen.Thequestionisrather:inyourcountry,whichpartywillbethefirsttousethistypeofrigorousexperimentaltestingtotargetabstentionnistsandfindeffectivewaystomobiliseengagewiththem?

Partiesandcandidateshaveadirectinterestinbuildingalonglastingrelationshipwithvoters,especiallyinareaswherepoliticalengagementisweak.Doingsotheywillincreasethesizeoftheirelectorateandexpandtheirbaseofvolunteers,whichwillfurtherimprovetheirabilitytomobilisevoters.Thisalignmentofprivateinterest(gainingvotes)andpublicinterest(improvingvotermobilizationandpoliticalengagement)hereisquiteunique,makingitpossibletoinventnewapproachestorevitalisethewaydemocracyworks.

Politicalcompetitionislikelytohelpspreadtheinnovationswedescribed.InFrance,followingtheintroductionofopenprimariesbythePartisocialisteforthe2012presidentialelection,politiciansfromUMPtherivalconservativepartycalledforasimilarmovefor2017.Thesameholdstruefordoortodoorcanvassing:inspiredbyFranoisHollandescampaign,severalUMPcandidatesfortheparliamentaryelectionsstartedknockingondoors.

Thereisofcourseaconstanttensionbetweeninnovationandinertiainpoliticalpartiesbutthefieldofcampaigning,intheUSandbeyond,hasrecentlyshownararepredispositiontoovercomeresistancetochange.

7/7/2015 PolicyNetworkOfdoorsandvoters

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GuillaumeLiegey,ArthurMullerandVincentPonsmanagedFranoisHollande'svotermobilizationcampaignfortheFrenchpresidentialelection.TheyfoundedLiegeyMullerPons,apoliticalstrategyfirm,tohelpprogressivepoliticalpartiesinFrance,Europeandbeyondtoorganiselargescalefieldcampaign.Togethertheyaretheauthorsoftheforthcomingbook,Porteporte:Reconquerirlademocratiesurleterrain.

ThisisacontributiontothejointPolicyNetwork/CenterforAmericanProgressGlobalProgressessayseriesonThePartyoftheFuture:Coalitionbuildingandanewstyleofpolitics.

ThisisacontributiontoPolicyNetwork'sworkonPartyPolitics,GovernmentandElections.

Tags:PartyoftheFuture,OfDoorsandVoters,France,GuillaumeLiegey,ArthurMuller,VincentPons,Campaign,Election,US,UnitedStates,Netherlands,Obama,BarackObama,Democrats,DemocraticParty,AlanGerber,DonaldGreen,Partisocialiste,SocialistParty,PS,UMP,UnionforaPopularMovement,UnionpourunMouvement,FrancoisHollande,LucBronner,