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Political Ecology of Urban
Energy
Reading
• Sherry Olson’s chapter on Form and
Energy in the urban built environment
– On reserve in GRC
• My chapter draft on Toronto’s energy
history
– On website as .pdf
The City
• A place where most people live
– Habitation
• A place where most people earn a living
– Economy
• A place crucial to the human relationship
with the environment
– Resources are consumed, wastes generated
Energy
• The city is a crucial zone for energy
production and consumption
• Energy is essential to sustaining the city
as a living environment
– Vital to living arrangements, food production
• Energy vital to the urban economy
– Now increasingly industrialised
Energy
• Most energy systems create
environmental impact
– Combustion generates flue gases, ash
– Nuclear power has the risks of the radioactive
fuel cycle
– Need diesel fuel, concrete, steel to build
hydro dams, destroy rivers
– Must kill trees to burn wood
Energy
• Two emerging crises for conventional
energy use:
– Resource depletion is setting in for oil, natural
gas
– The issue of climate change suggests that
fossil-fuel combustion should be curbed
Resource Depletion
• Follows a curve
• Development of the resource improves
access, reduces prices at first
– While depleting the easily-accessible highest
quality portions of the resource
• As the resource depletes, prices go up,
access deteriorates
– Quality of supply degrades
The Hubbert Peak
• M King Hubbert (1903-1989) US
petroleum geologist with Shell, US
Geological Survey
• In the 1956 predicted that US oil
production would peak in 1970
– And that global production would peak around
2000
– Caused an uproar
Hubbert
• Some people ridiculed his prediction of
peak oil in US in 1970
• But others paid attention:
– The leadership of Ontario Hydro in 1956,
opted for massive coal-fired power stations,
not oil or gas because of Hubbert
Peak Oil
• US government issuing strategic planning
documents which assume peak oil
• The leadership of most major oil
companies accept ‘peak oil’ but differ on
timing
• American Association of Petroleum
Geologists consensus is for global peak oil
within 5 years
Degrading Resource Quality
• OPEC’s August 2005 Monthly Oil Market
Report p. 3:
– Year 2000 53% of crude oil was light, sweet
– Year 2004 49% of crude oil was light, sweet
– Although total output increased, the quality is
declining
Natural Gas
• Conventional Natural Gas production has peaked– N America gas production peaked in 2001
– Western Europe gas output peaked 2004
– US, Canada, Mexico have proven conventional reserves sufficient for only 7-9 years consumption
• BP/Amoco estimates that at 1998 consumption rates all the conventional natural gas will be gone by 2060
• Natural gas is difficult to transport long-distance and in volume– No global-sourcing solutions available
Natural Gas
• Gas fracking techniques allow shale gas
production
– Tapping into vast reserves
• US, Canada become major gas producers
again
• But fracking controversial
– May damage groundwater supplies
– Many jurisdictions ban fracking
The Fracking Boom
• Fracking technology allows production of tight oil and gas, revives old fields
• Currently booming in N America
– Scheduled to produce more oil and gas than Saudi Arabia this year
– Crude costs already below $80/barrell and falling
• But fracking boom will be short
– Peak production c 2019
Peak Oil
• There is now widespread consensus in the
oil industry that we are at, or close to the
global peak of oil production
• The high-quality, easily-accessible oil is
gone or going fast
– The days of cheap oil are over
• From about 2015, global oil production will
enter irreversible decline
Why this matters
• The global economy, the modern industrial
city, modern agriculture depend on cheap
petroleum (and electricity)
– For energy
– For chemicals
Oil Dependence
• Oil accounts for
– 43% of global fuel consumption
– 95% of transportation fuel
Oil and Food
• For every joule of food energy produced in
US
– 10 joules of fossil fuel are consumed in the
farming, transportation and processing
– 31% goes on making the fertiliser
– 35% on operating farm machinery,
transportation
• Eat a salad in a Toronto winter
– The ingredients have travelled 3000 miles
Why this matters
• Our entire way of life depends on cheap
energy
• The North American suburb depends on
cheap petroleum, electricity
• The modern diet depends on cheap
petroleum
• The days of cheap oil are rapidly coming
to an end
Why this matters
• Growth of energy consumption has
accompanied the growth of the industrial
economy
• Conventional fossil-fuel based energy is
reaching the limits of growth
– And will probably decline
Why this matters
• Without energy to power the industrial
economy
– We will find it difficult to sustain 7 billion+
people
– Future economic growth may not be possible
• Deployment of alternative energy systems
will take time, and resources
– We are short on both
Climate Change
• A consequence of the combustion-based
energy systems of the industrial era
• Fossil fuels burned to release CO2 and
other greenhouse gases
• Greenhouse effect will warm the planet
– Disrupting climate zones, agriculture
Climate Change
• Naturally-occurring cycles of climate
change played an important role in
disrupting historic civilizations
– The classic Maya
– The Harrapan civilization (Indus valley)
– The Roman Empire
• We can expect serious trouble
– And the lives of billions are at stake
Toronto c. 1840
• Depended on firewood extracted from the
region’s forests
– Arriving via wagon, sled, schooner
• Extracted faster than it could be replaced
– Decimated the regions forests by 1855
Toronto c. 1875
• Depending on coal from Pennsylvania &
Ohio
– Via schooner
• Poor folk, brick-makers burn wood
Toronto c. 1900
• Depends on coal from PA & OH
Toronto c. 1925
• Still depends on PA & OH coal
• Rising use of Hydro, petroleum
– Heavy particulate & VOC air pollution
Toronto c. 1965
• Huge use of coal in power production
• Huge increases in hydro, petroleum
consumption
• Low-density suburban sprawl in progress
Combustion History of Toronto
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
1800 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000
000
ton
nes
Coal 000T
Wood 000TCE
Hydro 000TCE
Oil 000TCE
Incin 000T
Toronto CO2 emissions 000 tonnes
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
18000
1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960
Coal LEC
Coal HEC
Wood
Oil
Incineration
Gasoline
gas
Combined
Toronto CO2 tonnes per capita
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960
Coal LEC
Coal HEC
Wood
Oil
Incineration
Gasoline
gas
Comb/pc
Toronto 000 tonnes bottom ash generated
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1830 1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970
Coal LEC 0 0
Coal HEC 0 0
Wood 0.03 0.056
Incineration 0 0
Toronto 000T particulates
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960
Coal LEC
Coal HEC
Wood
Oil
Incineration
Gasoline
Combined
Toronto SOX Emissions '000 tonnes
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960
Coal LEC
Coal HEC
Wood
Oil
Incineration
Gasoline
Comb
Toronto NOX emissions 000 tonnes
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960
Coal LEC
Coal HEC
Wood
Oil
Incineration
Gasoline
Nat gas
Comb
Toronto Combustion Emissions 000 tonnes
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960
100kt CO2
TPM
SOX
NOX
Sherry Olson
• Tries to connect the urban built form to
energy consumption/waste production
• Cities have a succession of built forms
• Each of which has characteristic forms of
environmental impact, energy use
– Victorian grid-pattern
– Downtown high-rise
– Suburban sprawl
Sherry Olson
• The old, dense industrial urban cores
generated adverse environmental
conditions
– Smoke, noise, smells, heat, dust, congestion,
polluted water and land
• Middle and upper classes wanted to
escape to the suburbs
– And did
Sherry Olson
• From early C20th streetcars and autos
allow low-density suburban sprawl
• Efficient transit systems allow downtown
high-rise
– Workers commute via transit lines, elevators
• Urban centres become dependent on
cheap energy
– Especially oil and electricity
The Rise of the Automobile in
Toronto
Toronto Auto Registrations
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980
The Rise of the Automobile
• The first auto-oriented Toronto suburbs
created for the wealthy by 1910
• Toronto’s middle class motorises in 1920s
• After 1945
– Most people are motorised
– Major shifts of industry to the suburbs
– Auto-dependent suburban sprawl follows
Toronto’s contribution to climate
change
• Toronto before 1850 (firewood)
– Each person emits 2 tonnes of CO2 per year
• Toronto circa 1920 (coal)
– 10 tonnes CO2/person/year
• Toronto circa 1960 (coal & oil, booming
suburbs)
– 25 tonnes CO2/person/year
Toronto’s Energy History
• Urban metabolism/Ecological footprint
change over time
• Onset of petroleum-dependent mass-
consuming suburban sprawl seriously
deepens the impacts
– Subsidised by cheap oil, cheap hydro
– Dramatically increasing greenhouse gas
emissions (CO2)
Political Ecology of Urban Energy
• Urban energy use is implicated in some of
the major global environmental problems
of our time
• We have committed ourselves to urban
living and economic arrangements which
have a doubtful future
Political Ecology of Urban Energy
• Insoluble environmental stress and
change played a role in the demise of
some great classical civilizations
• The collapse of our own civilization may
not be so very far away
• Our current way of life (perhaps especially
in the suburbs) is deeply problematic